2026 Team Outlook: Houston Texans

5. PK Ka'imi Fairbairn, HOU - Solid/Safe Pick

Over the past four seasons, Fairbairn made 136 of his 149 field goal attempts (91.3%), with three missed extra points (110 chances). His leg had a massive spike from 50 yards or more in 2024 and 2025 (22-for- 29). He led the NFL in made field goals (44) and attempts (48) in 2025, lifting him to second in fantasy points (207.10). Fairbairn made at least three goals in nine of his 19 games, highlighted by four fantasy days (19.10, 19.0, 18.80, and 27.90). Fantasy Outlook: Fairbairn has three winning seasons (2018, 2024, and 2025) on his fantasy resume, and the Texans have upped their confidence in him from long range. Houston plays well defensively, allowing their offense to take more field goals and points, rather than chase first downs in fourth and short situations. Fairbairn is projected to be the second kicker off the board in 2026, behind Brandon Aubrey.

9. WR Nico Collins, HOU - Stud (low risk)

Collins was one of my misses in 2023, finishing 12th among wide receivers in PPR scoring with 260.40 fantasy points despite missing two games and playing only three snaps in another contest. When the matchup was right, he was electric, highlighted by posting five standout performances (7/146/1, 7/168/2, 7/104/1, 9/191/1, and 9/195/1), four of which came at home, where he averaged 17.98 fantasy points per game compared to just 11.70 on the road. His combination of a 73.4% catch rate and 16.2 yards per reception was elite, and he racked up 20- plus-yard gains on 25 plays. In 2024, opened even more promisingly. Collins was outstanding over his first four games (6/117, 8/135/1, 4/86, and 12/151/1 on 43 targets) before a hamstring injury forced him out nine snaps into Week 5, costing him the next five games. By the time he returned, the Texans' offense had lost its early-season momentum. Collins showed flashes in Week 12 (5/92/1), Week 13 (8/119), and the playoff opener (7/122/1), but his other six appearances were considerably quieter (28 catches for 309 yards and three touchdowns on 43 targets), averaging 15.80 PPR fantasy points over his final nine starts. His missed time led to Collins slipping to 23rd in PPR fantasy points (210.60 – 17.78 per game for all 14 games played in 2024). Heading into 2026, Collins has gained over 1,000 receiving yards in three consecutive seasons despite missing nine games. He comes off a career high in targets (120 – eight per game) while sitting out Week 8 with a concussion and resting in the game of the year. A second concussion led to an early exit in Houston's first postseason game, followed by a missed start vs. the Patriots. Collins gained over 100 receiving yards in only three games (8/104/1, 7/136, and 4/121) in 2025 while posting two other impactful showings

(9/92/1 and 3/85/2). The Texans gave him double-digit targets in six contests. Over his last 42 games in the regular season, he averaged 5.2 catches for 82 yards and 0.52 touchdowns per game (16.52 FPPG and 15.6 yards per catch). Despite missing two starts, Collins was the eighth-best wide receiver in PPR formats (227.20 fantasy points) last season. Fantasy Outlook: In the early draft season in the National Fantasy Football Championship, Collins is the 10th wide receiver drafted with an early third-round ADP (27) in 12-team PPR leagues. He brings an excellent three-year resume to the table with an even higher ceiling if Collins can suit up for 17 games. His talent isn’t in question; staying healthy long enough to sustain it remains the challenge. At this point, his floor should be about 70 catches for 1,100 and seven scores by pricing in a couple of off days. With a progression to 135 targets (his 2025 target opportunity), Collins would come in closer to 85 catches for 1,300 yards and 10 scores. If the Texans’ passing game regains its 2023 form, he will be even better.

19. QB C.J. Stroud, HOU - Quality Backup

Stroud's rookie season showed plenty of promise. He topped 300 passing yards in six of his 15 starts, headlined by a dominant Week 9 performance against Tampa Bay (470 yards and five touchdowns), and Teams RATT YDS Run% ATT YDS Pass% Plays Yards Houston Texans 475 1852 0.449 582 3956 0.551 1057 5808

finished 11th in quarterback scoring with 326.20 fantasy points despite missing two games. He also contributed more than expected on the ground with 39 carries for 167 yards and three scores. His caveats were real, but he threw two or fewer touchdowns in 14 of his other starts, and his home/road splits were stark (25.91 vs. 16.95 fantasy points per game). Offensive skill-player injuries derailed Stroud’s 2024 ceiling. Houston's top three receivers missed a combined 17 games, and Joe Mixon sat out three starts, leaving Stroud without the weapons needed to sustain an impactful passing game. He put up back-to-back 300-yard efforts in Weeks 4 and 5 before fading considerably, averaging just 15.56 fantasy points per game over his final 13 starts in four-point touchdown leagues. During that stretch, he threw 11 touchdowns against nine interceptions while averaging only 206 passing yards and 29.6 attempts per game. Houston made moves to bolster Stroud's supporting cast heading into last season, drafting Jayden Higgins and Jaylin Noel and signing Christian Kirk. Despite the additions, 2025 was another frustrating year. Stroud missed three games with a concussion and never found a consistent rhythm over his 16 starts (including the postseason). Houston threw for 3,956 yards, 24 touchdowns, and nine interceptions in the regular season while adding 48 carries for 209 yards and a score on the ground. His box scores rarely reflected a quarterback worth starting. He topped 300 passing yards just once (318 yards, two touchdowns, and seven rushes for 30 yards) and was genuinely fantasy-viable in only two other matchups, a four-touchdown, 244-yard effort and a 260-combined-yard, three-touchdown performance. In 14 of his starts, he failed to reach 20.00 fantasy points, making him one of the more disappointing assets at the position for the season.

Fantasy Outlook: The Texans come into 2026 with the same receiving corps, with the exception of Christian Kirk and, hopefully, a healthier Tank Dell. Houston’s top defense almost paints Stroud as a game manager who needs to regain his lost passing luster. He ranks 24th in the early draft season in the National Fantasy Football Championship, with a 14th-round ADP (167). I view him as a league-average player, putting him on a path to pass for 4,000 yards with about 25 touchdowns. The growth of his young wideouts is the key to Stroud becoming more fantasy relevant.

25. TE Dalton Schultz, HOU - Quality Backup

Schultz got off to a promising start in 2022 with seven catches for 62 yards in the opener for Dallas, then went largely quiet over the next five games (just two catches for 18 yards on eight targets, two zero-catch outings, and two missed starts due to a knee injury). He rebounded Year TRC SPT TYD YD% YC TGT TD 2025 98 0.269 883 0.22 9.01 130 3 2024 69 0.199 663 0.18 9.61 109 3 2023 81 0.218 899 0.20 11.10 114 8 Houston Texans

strongly over the final 13 games, including the postseason, tallying 60 catches for 619 yards and eight touchdowns on 90 targets. His three best fantasy performances all featured two-touchdown efforts. His first season in Houston was a mixed bag. Schultz delivered one standout game (10 catches, 130 yards, and a touchdown) and reached double digits in fantasy points six other times, but his down days were genuinely damaging for fantasy managers (he had six appearances with two catches or fewer). Schultz finished 10th among tight ends in PPR scoring with 151.50 points. 2024 was his least productive stretch over five years despite playing on 77.8% of Houston's snaps, up from 66.4% the year prior. Across 19 starts, including the postseason, Schultz failed to reach 10.00 fantasy points in 17 appearances. His only worthwhile outings came in Week 13 (five catches, 61 yards, and a touchdown) and Week 16 (five catches, 45 yards, and a touchdown), a thin return for a tight end who saw that level of playing time. Surprisingly, Schultz climbed off the fantasy mat last year to set career highs in catches (82) and targets (106), resulting in his second-highest total in receiving yards (777). He had weakness in scoring (three TDs) and his yards per catch (9.5). His rebound season lifted Schultz to 10th in tight end PPR scoring (177.70) while finishing with nine double-digit fantasy days (5/60, 9/98, 6/77, 7/53/1, 6/51, 7/55, 8/76/1, 5/35/1, and 4/73). On the downside, Schultz had four targets or fewer in six of his final nine starts, a potential foreshadowing of his 2026 opportunity. Fantasy Outlook: Buying players off career seasons in the fantasy market tends to lead to losing investments, especially when that occurrence happens at the back end of their careers. In the case of Schultz, his early ADP (184) in the National Fantasy Football Championship suggests faith isn’t Schultz’s fantasy corner this year,

partly due to the Texans' investing in Max Klare in the second round of the 2026 NFL Draft. I view him as a 60-catch player who has a chance to deliver close to 600 receiving yards with low scoring, putting him in matchup-only mode as a TE2. The presence of Klare should present more of a problem over the back half of the season. Houston extended Schultz’s contract in March ($12.6 million for 2027), which shows their commitment to him.

26. RB David Montgomery, HOU - Sleeper (undervalued)

The move to Detroit in 2023 immediately elevated Montgomery’s fantasy profile. He came out of the gate on fire over the first four games (371 rushing yards, six touchdowns, and five catches for 47 yards – 20.70 fantasy points per game) before injuries began to chip away at his season. He missed Weeks 3, 7, and 8 and left Week 6 early with a rib issue. Despite the absences, he finished the year with 15 touchdowns across 17 games and ranked 17th among running backs in PPR scoring with 208.60 fantasy points, a body of work that deserved a top-12 finish. Over his final 12 games, including the postseason, Montgomery totaled 909 combined yards, nine touchdowns, and 16 catches on 180 touches (15.0 per game), topping 100 combined yards twice. His only truly dominant performance came in Week 4 (32 carries, 121 yards, three touchdowns, and two catches for 20 yards). He had two catches or fewer in 15 of his 17 appearances. In 2024, a similar arc of a strong start gave way to late-year injury concerns. Montgomery earned RB1 snaps in four of his 15 games and was at his best over the opening five weeks (75 carries, 351 yards, six touchdowns, and 10 catches for 94 yards). He averaged 13.71 fantasy points over his final 10 games before a knee injury knocked him out of action for the Lions’ final three games. Despite his missed time, Montgomery finished 18th in running back scoring (222.75), leading to three 20.00 fantasy point games (21.20, 21.00, and 24.50). For the first time in his career, Montgomery played in 17 games in 2025. Unfortunately, his results (158/716/8 with 24 catches for 192 yards) led to a slide to RB27 in fantasy points (167.95), with one impact game (164 combined yards with two touchdowns and one catch). Fantasy Outlook: The Texans will rotate in two games this year, but their offense is a significant step back for the Detroit Lions. Montgomery will

get some catches while serving as Houston’s top goal-line runner. He makes this offense better, but his injury history suggests he'll miss some games. I have him on a path for 225 touches, resulting in 1,000 combined yards with a run at 10 scores.