Cincinnati Bengals

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The Cincinnati Bengals are the new offensive darlings in the NFL, thanks to an electric trio of young players – QB Joe Burrow, WR Ja'Marr Chase, and WR Tee Higgins. RB Joe Mixon gives Cinci a fantasy stud at running back, and they have a couple of talented complementary receivers in WR Tyler Boyd and TE Hayden Hurst. The next step in their growth is improving the pass protection for Burrow.

Offense

The Bengals ran the ball 44 % of the time last season despite averaging 25.6 carries per game. Their offense graded well in scoring (460 points – 7th), but only 27th in offensive plays. This year, I expect further growth in offensive yards with more explosiveness in the passing game.

QB Joe Burrow - Solid/Safe Pick

Coming into 2021, the Bengals appeared to be positioned to be a high-volume passing team based on Burrow's 40.4 passing attempts over 10 games in his rookie season. Instead, Cincinnati finished 20th in passing attempts (555 – 32.6 per game) while taking 55 sacks (third-most in the NFL). Burrow overcame his below-par passing opportunity by completing 70.4 % of his passes and gaining 8.9 yards per pass attempt.

Despite playing well over his first eight games (2,258 combined yards with 20 touchdowns), he failed to lead many teams to fantasy playoffs after a dull five-game stretch (282/0, bye, 148/1, 190/1, and 300/1). However, for anyone surviving with Burrow in the fantasy postseason, his play was exceptional in Week 16 (525/4) and Week 17 (446/4). He finished the year (4,729 combined yards and 36 touchdowns) as the eighth-highest scoring quarterback (376.45 fantasy points) in four-point passing touchdown leagues while missing one game.

Fantasy outlook: The Bengals signed three offensive linemen in the offseason to pair with two talented players (Jonah Williams and Jackson Carman) drafted in the first and second rounds in 2019 and 2021. Burrow has an excellent foundation of receivers, leading to him drawing the fourth-ranking at quarterback in the early draft season in the Fantasy Football World Championship. His next step should be 5,200 combined yards with 40+ touchdowns.

Other Options: Brandon Allen, Jake Browning

RB Joe Mixon - Stud (low risk)

Three times over the past four seasons, Mixon gained over 1,400 combined yards with a floor of 35 catches. He finished 2021 fourth in running back scoring (289.10 fantasy points) in PPR leagues while setting career highs in rushes (292), touches (334), rushing yards (1,205), receiving yards (314), and touchdowns (16). Over his last 38 games, Mixon gained only 4.0 yards per rush, partly due to a below-par run blocking. He gained over 100 rushing yards in three matchups (29/127/1, 30/123/2, and 28/165/2). Despite the appearance of success, Mixon rushed for fewer than 60 yards in six of his final eight starts.

Fantasy outlook: Cincinnati had Mixon on the field for 65.5 % of their plays while sitting out Week 18. This year he comes off the board as the seventh running back with an ADP of 11 in the FFWC. Based on the direction and improvement of the Bengals' offense, Mixon looks poised to be active again in 2022. On a path to gain 1,600 yards with a minimum of 12 touchdowns and about 45 catches.

RB Samaje Perine - Fantasy Handcuff

After kicking around the NFL for three seasons with minimal chances, Perine played well off the bench for Cincinnati in 2020 and 2021. He gained 809 combined yards with five touchdowns and 38 catches on 156 touches. Last year, his best value came in two games (83 combined yards with one touchdown and four catches and 75 combined yards with one score and a catch).

Fantasy outlook: Perine played well enough to be considered Joe Mixon's top handcuff again this year. His price point should be relatively free this draft season, but he still needs to hold off Chris Evans for touches.

RB Chris Evans - Dynasty Only

Over four seasons at Michigan, Evans never saw starting snaps. He gained 2,274 combined yards with 15 touchdowns and 49 catches. His best output came in 2017 (842 combined yards with seven touchdowns and 16 catches).

With a missed season (suspension) in 2019 and minimal playing time in 2020, Evans doesn't have the college stats to showcase his overall talents. His vision and pass-catching talent grade well while also having the blocking skills to handle pass protection responsibilities.

In his first year with Cincinnati, he gained 228 combined yards with two touchdowns and 15 catches. His best opportunity for playing time came in Week 18, leading to 59 combined yards with one touchdown and four catches.

Fantasy outlook: His best chance for playing time may come on passing downs. If Joe Mixon has a significant injury, I don't expect the Bengals to feature one back on three downs. Evans is only a summer follow until he moves up a notch on Cincinnati's running back's depth chart.

Other Options: Trayveon Williams, Elijah Holyfield, Shermari Jones

WR Ja'Marr Chase - Stud (low risk)

In his first season with his former college quarterback, Chase proved to be a real deal. He gained over 20 yards on 27.2 % of his 81 catches, and eight of those receptions reached the 40-yard mark. His explosiveness flashed in three impact games (6/159/1, 8/201/1, and 11/266/3). In addition, Chase was a much better player at home (63/1,061/7) than on the road (38/673/7). Despite his great season (81/1,455/13), the Bengals looked his way six times or fewer in eight matchups. Overall, he averaged 7.5 targets per game with a reasonable catch rate (63.3), considering his length per catch (18.0).

Fantasy outlook: This season, the Bengals need to get Chase more catches over the short areas of the field to increase his fantasy value and opportunity. He finished 17th in wide receiver targets (128) and 5th in wideout scoring (305.80 fantasy points) in PPR leagues. In the early draft season in the high-stakes, Chase is the third wide receiver selected with an ADP of 8. His natural progression should be 100+ catches for 1,700 yards with impact touchdowns. If the Bengals push their passing attempts over 600, his ceiling will be much higher.

WR Tee Higgins - Solid/Safe Pick

In his second year with Cinci, Higgins set career-highs in catches (74), receiving yards (1,091), and targets (110) despite missing three games. However, his production fell short of expectations over the first 10 contests (37/446/2). He turned in four impact games (6/114/1, 9/138/1, 5/114, and 12/194/2) over the following five weeks. Higgins had surgery last March to repair a labrum issue in his left shoulder. His stats projected over 17 games came to 89 catches for 1,324 yards and seven touchdowns.

His blend of size (6'4" and 215 lbs.), speed, and natural ability put him on par with the best wide receivers in the game. Ja'Marr Chase will push Higgins to get better, and Joe Burrow will find him when he's open. Also, drawing WR2 coverage on more plays should lead to a bump in targets.

Fantasy outlook: Higgins has beast upside while projecting much higher in scoring. His catch rate (64.7) and yards per catch (14.2) grade well and scream more chances. With a healthy season, he looks poised to push his targets inside the top 10 in the league. I expect close to six catches per game, leading to 1,400 yards and double-digit scores.

WR Tyler Boyd - Bye Week Fill-in

In his first season playing with Tee Higgins and Ja'Marr Chase, Boyd finished with a four-year low in catches (67), receiving yards (828), and targets (94). Even with the appearance of weakness, he still ranked 31st in fantasy points (184.30) in PPR leagues. Over the first 11 games, Boyd offered playable value in three contests (7/73, 9/118, and 5/69/1). His stock pushed higher from Week 13 to Wee 17 (5/85, 4/55, 5/96/1, 3/85/1, and 4/36/1).

Fantasy outlook: The regression in production by Boyd has somewhat created a buying opportunity this year. He ranks 52nd at wide receiver in the early draft season in the FFWC (ADP – 126). At the very least, Boyd offers handcuff value to Chase and Higgins while also being viable during bye weeks and covering injuries. I expect a bump in passing chances across the board for the Bengals' wideouts. With 110 targets, Boyd should push his 2022 stats to 75 catches for 850 yards with a handful of scores.

Other Options: Mike Thomas, Stanley Morgan, Trent Taylor

TE Hayden Hurst - Sleeper (undervalued)

After trending upward in 2019 (30/349/2) and 2020 (56/571/6), Hurst lost his opportunity last year after the Falcons drafted Kyle Pitts. He finished 2022 with 26 catches for 221 yards and three touchdowns on 31 targets (83.8 % catch rate). When at his best (2019), Hurst posted a top 10 fantasy season in PPR formats.

Fantasy outlook: Hurst came to NFL in 2018 with a first-round pedigree. I expect him to be a good fit for the Bengals' offense. He has a chance to produce a backend TE2 season with short-term value. Possible 40/450/5 season.

TE Drew Sample - Deep-league Only

In the second round in 2019, Cinci tried to upgrade the tight end position by drafting Sample. His best asset early in his career will be his blocking skills, which helps improve the run game. Sample needs development in his route running, but he does have a feel for open space in his pass patterns with the wheels to test a defense if given a free run downfield.

The Bengals gave Sample almost two-thirds of their tight end opportunity in 2020, leading to 40 catches for 349 yards and one touchdown due to an injury to C.J. Uzomah in Week 2. He gained over 50 yards in one contest while receiving five catches or more in three games. Last year he finished with 11 catches for 81 yards on 15 targets despite being on the field for 576 plays.

Fantasy outlook: Sample has no fantasy value this season. I don't see a progression in his pass-catching opportunity.

Other Options: Mitchell Wilcox, Nick Eubanks, Thaddeus Moss

PK Evan McPherson - Stud (low risk)

Not only did the Bengals find the foundation of an elite offense over the past two drafts, but they also landed a game-winning kicker with the addition of McPherson. He finished his first regular season with exceptional success from 50 yards or more (9-for-11). Overall, McPherson made 28 of his 33 field goals (84.8 %) while missing two of his 48 extra points. In addition, he made all 12 of his field goals and four extra points over three matchups in the postseason while also going 3-for-3 from long range.

Fantasy outlook: I'm a fan of kickers with big legs, and so is the rest of the fantasy world. McPherson ranks second at his position in mid-May. Cincinnati has a great offense, setting the stage for a high floor in many games for their star kicker.

Cincinnati - Bye Week Fill-in

The Bengals jumped to 7th in rushing yards allowed (1,742), with ball carriers gaining 4.3 yards per rush with eight runs gaining over 20 yards. Cinci gave up 15 rushing touchdowns. Despite the appearance of success, offenses averaged only 23.9 rushes against them.

Their pass defense slipped to 26th in passing yards allowed (4,222) with 26 touchdowns and 13 interceptions. Receivers gained over 20 yards on 65 plays. Cincinnati finished with 42 sacks (25 more than 2020).

DE Trey Hendrickson delivered 27.5 sacks over the past two seasons, but he did have risk against the run. LB Logan Wilson led the second level of their defense with 100 tackles and four interceptions. S Vonn Bell, S Jessie Bates, and CB Chidobe Awuzie were the best players in their secondary.

This defense needs multiple players to improve to reach higher in the league rankings. I only see a league average team vs. the run with repeated risk defending the pass. With any regression in their pass rush, the Bengals will get beat at times in the deep passing game despite adding some talented cornerbacks in this year's draft.