Carolina Panthers

2023 Carolina Panthers Outlook

Coaching Staff

Over his five seasons as a head coach of the Indianapolis Colts, Frank Reich went 40-33 with two playoff appearances. Last year his season began with a 3-5-1 record, leading to his firing. He started his NFL coaching career with the Colts in 2008 while having 14 seasons of coaching experience, with four years coming as an offensive coordinator for the Chargers and Eagles.

Carolina comes into this season with five consecutive losing years (29-53).

Thomas Brown takes over as the Panthers' offensive coordinator. He earned his way through the coaching ranks through the Rams' system as their running back coach, assistant head coach, and tight end coach. His career started in 2011, coaching for the Georgia Bulldogs.

Carolina inched to 29th in offensive yards and 20th in points scored (347 – 43 more than in 2021). The Panthers' last top offensive season came in 2015 (1st in points – 500) with Cam Newton behind center.

The defensive side of the ball is now in the hands of Ejiro Evero. He held the same position in 2022 for the Denver Broncos. His pro coaching career started in 2011 with the 49ers. Evero has 12 years of coaching experience in the NFL.

Last season the Panthers climbed two notches to 19th in points allowed (374) while finishing 22nd in yards allowed.

Free Agency

Carolina added a pair of veteran wide receivers (Adam Thielen and D.J. Chark) in the offseason while also signing RB Miles Sanders and TE Hayden Hurst to beef up their offense. They moved on from RB D'Onta Foreman. They brought in Andy Dalton for quarterback depth.

On defense, S Vonn Bell was their top investment ($22.5 million for three years), followed by DT Shy Tuttle ($19.5 million for three seasons). DT Matt Ioannidis remains in the free-agent pool.

Draft

The Panthers only had five selections in the 2023 NFL Draft – QB Bryce Young (1st), WR Jonathan Mingo (2nd), DE DJ Johnson (3rd), G Chandler Zavala (4th), and S Jammie Robinson (5th).

Young comes to the NFL via the first overall pick while checking in with below-par size (5'10" and 205 lbs.). His foundation in reads, pocket presence, and playability offset his questionable arm. The Panthers will use him as a pocket passer with the goal of using timing routes to take advantage of his quick release and understanding of route developments. Young can make plays with his legs, helping him avoid sacks and move the chains.

Mingo gives Carolina's passing game a physical presence while offering excellent speed (4.46 40-yard dash) for his size (6'2" and 220 lbs.). His route running projects to be NFL-ready while needing to improve his burst out of his final cuts. He'll be a mismatch in coverage with the strength to win off the line and the heat of contested catches. Mingo will do much of his damage inside the harsh marks while working out of the slot.

Johnson looks the part of a disrupting power, speed pass rusher, but his foundation in vision, tackling, and change of direction moves limits his ceiling, at least out of the gate. With better technique and development of his counter moves, he'll have a better chance to reach impact value in the pass rush. His run support looks vulnerable in space.

Other than his initial quickness off the snap, Zavala has the tools to be a winning power run blocker in the NFL. He understands his job and assignment with a goal of winning beyond his first block in the run game. His range is limited in pass protection, but defenders rarely roll over him with a bull rush.

Robinson has the tools to help an NFL defense when attacking the line of scrimmage against the run and vs. sitting wideouts in zone coverage. His reads and reaction times grade well, but he will have some risk when making a false step and defending receivers over the long field due to his below-par speed (4.59 40-yard dash).

Offensive Line

Carolina jumped to 10th in rushing yards (2,210) with 16 touchdowns and 15 over 20 yards. They averaged 4.6 yards per carry on 28.4 rushing attempts per game. Their progression in the run game was surprising, considering the Panthers' midseason trade of Christian McCaffrey.

The Panthers bumped to 28th in passing yards (3,246) with only 16 touchdowns and 13 interceptions. They gained only 7.1 yards per pass attempt, with 49 completions gaining 20 yards or more. Their offensive line allowed 36 sacks (52 in 2021).

LT Ikem Ekwonu handled himself well in his rookie season after getting drafted sixth overall in 2022. He made 17 starts while holding his own in the pass rush and posting league-average success in run blocking.

LG Brady Christensen doubled his snap count last year. His pass protecting pushed to a favorable area, but he still needs work in his run blocking.

C Bradley Bozeman played well in 2021 for the Baltimore Ravens. In his first year with Carolina, he missed the first six weeks with an ankle injury. When on the field, he gave up one sack but struggled in three of his final four starts in pass protection. His run defense remained in a favorable area last year.

RG Austin Corbett comes off his best year in pass blocking. Carolina threw much less than the Rams in 2020 and 2021. He lost some momentum in the run game after showing more upside in this area over the previous two seasons.

RT Taylor Moton remains a top-notch player in pass protection, with a five-year resume of starting for the Panthers. Surprisingly, he finished with a significant regression in run blocking, an area of strength in 2020 and 2021.

Carolina has a developing offensive line that has a chance to rank in the top 10 in 2023. Their pass blocking looks ahead of their run blocking, but that could change this year.

Offense

The Panthers turned into a balanced offense last year, leading to them running the ball 51.4% of the time. They finished tied for 30th in plays (940), with only four other offenses (Chicago, Atlanta, Baltimore, Tennessee) passing for fewer yards.

QB Matt Corral - Not Draft Worthy

Over his final two seasons at Mississippi, Corral completed 69.2% of his passes for 6,686 yards with 49 touchdowns and 19 interceptions. He gained 9.4 yards per pass attempt while also being active as a runner (112/506/4 and 152/614/11). Almost one-third of his rushing yards two years ago came in one game (30/195). Over his final nine full games in 2021, Corral failed to deliver more than two passing touchdowns in any matchup. In his meeting vs. Malik Willis (173 passing yards with no touchdowns and three interceptions plus 27/71/1 on the ground) on November 6th, he gained 333 combined yards with one touchdown.

Corral also took the snap out of the shotgun on most plays, but Mississippi ran play-action run/pass options to keep defenses on their heels. He showed the ability to stick quick passes on time on a tight line while doing some dirty work in the run game. Corral must improve his decision-making on his run plays to avoid taking big hits at the next level. His desire to fight for extra yards on the ground can be a win at the goal line. Corral offered touch when asked to drive the ball downfield in the passing game, but some passes had a high vertical, which may lead to more interceptions.

I expect him to control the first 20 yards past the line of scrimmage while only using his legs when asked to move the chains. In addition, Corral will make his share of big passing plays in an offense with a top-tier run game.

Fantasy Outlook: After missing his rookie season with a left foot injury that required surgery, Corral will start 2023 holding a clipboard as the Panthers' QB3.

Other Options: Andy Dalton

QB Bryce Young - Sleeper (undervalued)

Over his final two seasons at Alabama, Young completed 65.9% of his passes for 8,200 yards with 79 touchdowns and 12 interceptions. He posted his best season in 2021 (4,782/50) while showing growth as a runner last year (49/185/4).

Young has a grip and rip-it feel after the snap, but sometimes he doesn't throw a crisp ball. His throws do have more carry downfield than they appear after his release. Young played with top receiving talent at Alabama behind a winning offensive line. His completion windows will be smaller in the NFL, and his playground style when the pocket breaks down will lead to fewer big plays.

Fantasy Outlook: The structure of the Panthers' receiving corps has a combination of veteran experience and some young developing options. Carolina will try to establish the run and let the progression of Young determine the number of passing attempts per game. I only see a newer version of Mac Jones in his rookie season with similar overall receiving options (NE has better tight ends, while CAR may have a higher ceiling at WR2, WR3, and WR4). My starting points is 4,000 combined yards with 22 to 26 touchdowns.

QB Andy Dalton - Not Draft Worthy

Dalton will mentor Bryce Young and serve as Carolina's QB2.

RB Miles Sanders - Solid/Safe Pick

It's hard to imagine that Sanders didn't score in 2021 when looking at Philly's backs finishing with 16 touchdowns. He rushed for an impressive 5.5 yards per carry but only 6.1 yards per catch. Over the first six weeks, Sanders gained 391 yards with 18 catches on 75 touches (12.5 per game). He left Week 7 with an ankle injury that led to three more missed games. When Sanders returned to the lineup, the Eagles were much more active in the run game, leading to 446 combined yards with six catches on 73 touches. A broken hand in Week 16 ultimately ended his regular season. His stats projected over 17 games came to 1,292 combined yards with 37 catches.

Last season, Sanders played at a similar level in the run game (259/1,269/11), but his stats looked much better due to him playing an entire year. The Eagles scored 32 rushing touchdowns, helping him set a career-best in scores (11). His biggest strike was the decline in his chance in the passing game (20/78 on 26 targets). Sanders rushed for more than 100 yards in three matchups (27/134/2, 21/143/2, and 17/144/2). Philadelphia gave him more than 20 carries in only two contests. His production lost value over the final four games (55/201 with two catches for minus seven yards).

Fantasy Outlook: In the early draft season in the high-stake market, Sanders ranks 20th at running back, five spots lower than his finish in fantasy points (220.20) in 2022 in PPR formats. He has a 50-catch season on his resume, and Carolina ranked higher than the Eagles in running back production last year. If Sanders can stay healthy, I expect 275 touches with 1,300 combined yards, 10 touchdowns, and 40 catches.

RB Chuba Hubbard - Fantasy Handcuff

Over three seasons at Oklahoma State, Hubbard gained 4,097 yards with 36 touchdowns and 53 catches. He averaged 5.9 yards per rush and 9.0 yards per catch. When at his best in 2019, Hubbard rushed for more than 100 yards in 12 of his 13 starts, highlighted by four games with over 200 yards (26/221/3, 32/256/3, 25/296/1, and 20/223/2). He had over 20 touches in every game except Week 2 (8/44/1).

Hubbard runs with rhythm and vision while willing to take what a defense gives him. He has a north/south feel, but he can win on the outside when given daylight. Hubbard dominated in his sophomore season at Oklahoma State (328/2,094/21), helped by a heavy workload (27 touches per week). Unfortunately, Hubbard wasn't the same player in 2020 (133/625/5 over seven games).

The Panthers gave him 197 touches in relief of Christian McCaffrey in 2021, leading to 786 combined yards with six touchdowns and 25 catches. However, he gained only 3.6 yards per rush and 7.0 yards per catch while delivering five playable games (18.40, 13.50, 15.10, 15.80, and 13.60 fantasy points). Carolina gave him only 7.9 touches per game over the final nine weeks.

Last year, Hubbard barely touched the ball over the first six weeks (6/34 with one catch for one yard). He looked poised to take advantage of the Christian McCaffrey trade, but an ankle injury in Week 7 (73 combined yards with one touchdown and two catches) led to an early exit and two more missed games. Unfortunately, Hubbard took the back seat to D'Onta Foreman multiple times over the Panthers' last eight matchups (80/368/1 with 11 catches for 160 yards). His best output over this span in fantasy points came in Week 14 (18.90) and Week 16 (12.60).

Fantasy Outlook: Hubbard opens the season as the Panthers' WR2. Carolina will give him a minimum of 125 touches while working as a handcuff for Miles Sanders. He'll be found this year in drafts at the backend of RB5s.

Other Options: Raheem Blackshear, Spencer Brown, Camerun Peoples, Tiyon Evans

WR Adam Thielen - Quality Backup

Injuries from 2019 to 2021 led to Thielen missing 10 starts and finishing with weakness in his production each year (30/418/6, 74/925/14, and 67/726/10). When at his best in 2018, he caught 113 of his 153 targets for 1,373 yards and nine touchdowns. His scoring value (24 touchdowns) improved over this span (28 games) while maintaining a high catch rate (69.4).

The Vikings used Thielen closer to the line of scrimmage in 2021 (10.8 yards per catch – career low). His season ended with an ankle injury that required surgery in late December. Over the first 11 games, Thielen had a floor of 19.00 fantasy points in PPR leagues in five matchups (9/102/2, 11/126/1, 6/78/1, 8/82/1, and 5/62/2). Minnesota only gave him double-digit targets in three games.

Despite playing an entire season for the first time since 2018, Thielen scored fewer fantasy points (180.00) in PPR formats than he did in 2020 (254.00) and 2021 (199.80). His erosion came from a decline in scoring (6 touchdowns – 14 in 2020 and 10 in 2021) and three consecutive years of fade in his yards per catch (13.9, 12.5, 10.8, and 10.2). The Vikings gave him 6.3 targets per game last year. Thielen gained more than 70 yards in one matchup (8/72) while barely having a pulse over his final four games (1/6, 1/16, 2/8/1, and 3/50 on 16 combined targets).

Fantasy Outlook: The Panthers signed him to a three-year deal for $25 million in the offseason while dismissing his age (33 when the season starts) and his demise. Thielen runs good routes while offering winning hands, but he doesn't create as much separation as he used to. He ranks 63rd in late June, supporting my thoughts. For anyone buying Bryce Young, his WR1 is well past his prime, pointing to only a 60/600/4 season by Thielen.

WR D.J. Chark - Quality Backup

In 2019, Chark proved to be a value on draft day or a quick waiver wire pickup after his fast start to the year over five games (27/485/5 on 37 targets). Chark flashed in Week 1 (4/146/1) while offering two other impact games (8/164/2 and 8/104/2). However, over his final five starts, he only caught 22 passes for 212 yards with no touchdowns.

After his breakout season (73/1,008/8), Chark struggled to make an impact in seven starts in 2020 (3/16, 1/26, 4/56, 4/41, 2/41, 2/16, and 4/53) while also missing three contests with chest, ankle, and ribs issues. His best play came in two matchups (8/95/2 and 7/146/1). In 2021, Chark played well in two of his first three matchups (3/86/1 and 3/49/1), but his season ended in Week 4 with a broken ankle.

Last year, he missed five games with an ankle issue. Chark posted playable stats in Week 1 (4/52/1), Week 13 (5/98), Week 14 (6/94/1), and Week 16 (4/108). His only seven outings added up to 11 catches for 150 yards and one score on 26 targets.

Fantasy Outlook: Chark should open up this season as the Panthers' WR2. His 28-game run from 2019 to 2020 (126/1,714/13) breaks down to 13.41 FPPG in PPR formats. He'll be a late flier in 12-team drafts, but his resume gives him a chance to offer starting WR3 fantasy stats if Chark can stay healthy.

WR Jonathan Mingo - Super Sleeper (high risk/potential)

Over four seasons at Mississippi, Mingo caught 112 passes for 1,751 yards and 13 targets, with his best value coming in 2022 (51/861/5). Last year he posted one monster game (9/247/2) while gaining more than 100 yards in three other matchups (8/128/2, 6/136/1, and 3/103) in his career.

Fantasy Outlook: There is a lot to like about Mingo in his rookie season, and the Panthers need to find a way to pair him with their incoming rookie quarterback. His lack of a college resume makes him easy to dismiss, but Carolina desperately needs some to step up to their lead wideout. I'm following his progress while also understanding his rookie season may not be high enough to help fantasy teams in many weeks. The gambler in me wants to add him as a deep stash in 2023.

Other Options: Laviska Shenault, Shi Smith, Damiere Byrd

WR Terrace Marshall - Bye Week Fill-in

In 2019, Marshall caught a piece of the Joe Burrow ride to the national championship, leading to 46 catches for 671 yards and 13 touchdowns. He flashed over the first seven games in 2020 (48/731/10) before opting out. His best output came in the third game (11/235/3) of the season against Missouri.

He projects to be a vertical threat early in his career while doing damage on comeback throws. Marshall offers size (6'2" and 205 lbs.) and speed (4.38 40-yard dash). However, his release looks questionable and lacks tempo. He needs to add more fight to his game off the snap and at the top of his routes to reach a high level.

Marshall ended his rookie season with only 17 catches for 138 yards and no touchdowns on 30 targets. He missed three games with a concussion issue and foot injury.

Last season, Marshall worked as a big threat for the Panthers, leading to 17.5 yards per catch with 28 catches for 490 yards and one touchdown on 47 targets. Ten of his receptions gained more than 20 yards (35.7%). His top output came in Week 8 (4/87) and Week 9 (3/53/1). Marshall finished the year with WR2 snaps on the Panthers.

Fantasy Outlook: Marshall has the tools to potentially be a third-year breakout player, but his ceiling may only be a 50/800/5 player. The coach-speak out of Carolina over the summer and his connection with Bryce Young are the keys to his potential fantasy value. For now, he'll be found in the free agent pool.

TE Hayden Hurst - Quality Backup

After trending upward in 2019 (30/349/2) and 2020 (56/571/6), Hurst lost his opportunity in 2021 after the Falcons drafted Kyle Pitts. He finished with 26 catches for 221 yards and three touchdowns on 31 targets (83.8% catch rate). When at his best (2019), Hurst posted a top 10 fantasy season (56/571/6) in PPR formats.

Last year, Hurst had a better opportunity with the Bengals over 13 games (52/414/2), but he gained only 8.0 yards per catch with only three playable games (6/53/1, 6/48, and 6/57).

Fantasy Outlook: Hurst slides into a weaker offense, on a team with a history of throwing to the tight end. On the flip side, the Colts had productive seasons from their tight end under Frank Reich from 2019 to 2021 (82/903/5, 82/895/8, and 74/774/2). Hurst is only a backend TE2 in PPR formats.

TE Tommy Tremble - Not Draft Worthy

Over his 19 games with the Fighting Irish, Tremble caught 35 balls for 401 yards with four touchdowns. Only once in his career did he catch more than four passes in a game or gain over 50 yards receiving.

Tremble earned his way into the NFL as a blocker, but his frame (6'3" and 245 lbs.) isn't ideal for a lead role at tight end. He continues to improve, but his growth in the passing game at Notre Dame was restricted by a pair of talented players in front of him on the depth chart. Tremble ran a 4.59 40-yard dash on his pro day while also showing short-area quickness. However, his hands look to be in question when facing tight coverage.

In his rookie season, Tremble caught 20 catches for 191 yards and two touchdowns on 35 targets. He finished last year with 19 catches for 174 yards and three scores on 32 targets.

Fantasy Outlook: Tremble needs time to develop in the passing game while possibly having the best fit as a move tight end on early downs. His speed will play well when overlooked by a defense in the deep passing game. There's more here than meets the initial eye, but Tremble won't be fantasy relevant in 2023.

Other Options: Ian Thomas, Giovanni Ricci, Stephen Sullivan

PK Eddy Pineiro - Not Draft Worthy

The Bears gave Pineiro a starting kicking job in 2019, leading to him making 82.1% of his field goals while going 2-for-2 from 50 yards or longer. He failed to win the Commanders in 2021, after missing the previous year with a groin injury. Pineiro kicked well last season (33-for-35 in field goal attempts) while missing two of his 32 extra point. He has yet to miss from long range despite only have five chances.

Fantasy Outlook: Carolina scored 35 touchdowns last year while creating 35 field goal tries. Pineiro ranked fifth in kicker scoring (159.90) last year, and the Panthers should be better offensively this year. Possible matchup value, but he needs more kicks from 50 yards or more to match the top kickers in the league.

Carolina - Bye Week Fill-in

The Panthers repeated their 18th finish in rushing yards allowed (2,085) with 17 touchdowns. They allowed only 25.9 rushing attempts per game, with ball carriers gaining 4.1 yards per rush.

Carolina fell to 23rd in passing yards allowed (3,868) with 25 touchdowns and 10 interceptions. Their defense finished with 35 sacks, with quarterbacks gaining 7.1 yards per pass attempt.

DT Derrick Brown saw his tackles improve in each year in the NFL after getting drafted seventh overall in 2020. He only has six sacks in his career while becoming an asset against the run last year. DT Shy Tuttle played well in run support over his four seasons with the Saints. He tends to be on the sidelines on passing downs.

LB Yetur Gross-Matos had the most of snaps of his career last year, but he failed to provide an edge in any area. The Panthers drafted him in the second round in 2020. LB Shaq Thompson recorded more than 100 tackles over the past four seasons while offering minimal value in the pass rush. His run defense was elite and the best of his career in 2022. LB Frankie Luvu stepped up his game last year after moving in the starting lineup for the first time of his career. He finished with 111 tackles and seven sacks while developing into a plus run defender. LB Brian Burns continues to improve his pass rush, leading to a career-best in sacks (9) and tackles (63).

CB C.J. Henderson has a first round pedigree (2020), but he has yet to play up to that level over his four years in the NFL. Receivers tend to have a high catch rate with some damage in scoring. CB Jaycee Horn played well in his sophomore season in the league after getting drafted eighth overall in 2021. He needs to clean up his tackling to help his value in run support. S Vonn Bell remains a top all around asset, with a long history of being a high-volume tackler. Four of his six interceptions came last season. Xavier Woods will compete with Jeremy Chinn for the other starting safety job.

The Panthers have a questionable defensive line while lining up in a 3-4 formation on most plays. Carolina has strength up the middle of their defense at the second and third levels, but their cornerbacks have a lot to prove. Burns leads the pass rush, but they need another player to step on the other side of the field. On the fantasy side, the Panthers' defense is a below-par option with only occasional matchup value.