Carolina Panthers

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The Carolina Panthers desperately need RB Christian McCaffrey to stay healthy to help increase their chances of posting a winning season for the first time since 2017. The quarterback position gets a bump by the acquisition of Baker Mayfield. In addition, the Panthers have three viable options at wide receiver to hopefully raise their offense from the doldrums in the league. Defensively, Carolina showed growth in 2021, pointing to more success this year if they can play from the lead in more games.

Offensive

The Panthers tried to run the ball last season, but without their star ball carrier, they lost the ability to make big plays and score on the ground. Even with close to 600 pass attempts, Carolina struggled to move the ball consistently via the air. With a push to 5.0 yards per rush and 7.0 yards per pass attempt, this offense would have top 12 upside.

QB Matt Corral - Dynasty Only

Over his final two seasons at Mississippi, Corral completed 69.2 percent of his passes for 6,686 yards with 49 touchdowns and 19 interceptions. He gained 9.4 yards per pass attempt while also being active as a runner (112/506/4 and 152/614/11). Almost one-third of his rushing yards last year came in one game (30/195). Over his final nine full games in 2021, Corral failed to deliver more than two passing touchdowns in any matchup. In his meeting vs. Malik Willis (173 passing yards with no touchdowns and three interceptions plus 27/71/1 on the ground) on November 6th, he gained 333 combined yards with one touchdown.

Corral also took the snap out of the shotgun on most plays, but Mississippi ran play-action run/pass options to keep defenses on their heels. He showed the ability to stick quick passes on time on a tight line while doing some dirty work in the run game. Corral must improve his decision-making on his run plays to avoid taking big hits at the next level. His desire to fight for extra yards on the ground can be a win at the goal line. When asked to drive the ball downfield in the passing game, Corral offered touch, but some passes had a high vertical, which may lead to more interceptions.

I expect him to control the first 20 yards past the line of scrimmage while only using his legs when asked to move the chains. In addition, Corral will make his share of big passing plays in an offense with a top-tier run game.

QB Baker Mayfield - Quality Backup

Health clear efforted the throwing ability of Mayfield in 2021. Despite his issues, he hasn't been a winning quarterback (29-30) over his four seasons with Cleveland. His completion rate (61.6) came in well below his college career (68.5) while falling to be a difference-maker in touchdowns (92 over 60 games). Mayfield tossed three touchdowns or more in nine of his 59 starts – none over his previous 18 games). His value in the run game (158/571/5) has been minimal in his career.

Mayfield had surgery on his left shoulder in January to repair a torn labrum. He expected to be at full strength by the start of the regular season.

Fantasy outlook: Mayfield landed in an excellent spot to deliver much better passing stats than in Cleveland. His health was a clear issue last year, and the Browns have been a run-first team since he arrived. Mayfield now has an elite passing catching back with three talented wideouts. His presence should elevate the Panthers' offense in the passing game, but the bar wasn't set very high in 2021. With 17 starts, 4,000+ passing yards should be a given with around 30 scores.

QB Sam Darnold - Not Draft Worthy

Carolina fans thought they had found their franchise quarterback over the first four games last season when Sam Darnold gained 1,241 combined yards with 10 touchdowns. His completion rate (67.8) and yards per pass attempt (8.1) graded well. However, over the next five weeks, he passed for only 159 yards per game with two touchdowns and eight interceptions while completing only 51.9% of his passes. A right shoulder injury led to five missed contests. Darnold finished the year with three empty starts (190/0, 132/0, and 219/2).

Over his time in the NFL, he has a 17-32 record with 52 passing touchdowns and 52 interceptions while gaining only 6.5 yards per pass attempt. Darnold does add some value as a runner (162/639/10).

Fantasy outlook: The long-term solution at quarterback for Carolina isn't Darnold, and Carolina confirmed that by adding Baker Mayfield. I don't see a reason to ride him as a starter even in 2022. His draft pedigree (third overall pick in 2018) suggests Darnold has the game to lead an NFL franchise, but I see him as an easy avoid at any value in the fantasy market.

RB Christian McCaffrey - Stud (low risk)

McCaffrey led fantasy leagues in running back scoring in PPR leagues in 2018 (387.0) and 2019 (471.2) while being a massive edge (scored 154.30 fantasy points over the 2nd best running back) two years ago. His play over three games (374 combined yards with six touchdowns and 17 catches) last year led to 30.13 fantasy points per game in PPR leagues.

In 2019, he finished with 403 touches while only being the third player in NFL history to gain over 1,000 yards rushing (1,387) and receiving (1,005). McCaffrey gained over 100 yards rushing in six of his first nine games but none over the final seven weeks. Carolina featured him more in the passing games (68/609/1) over his downturn in rushing yards, highlighted by three outings (11/121, 11/82, and 15/119). McCaffrey had 10 catches or more in five games.

He averaged 28.7 touches per game (30.13 FPPG) in 2020 while missing 13 weeks with ankle, thigh, and shoulder injuries. Last year McCaffrey played well over his seven starts (785 combined yards with two touchdowns and 37 catches). His regression scoring led to 18.21 fantasy points per game with a step down in touches (19.4 per week ) due to his injuries (hamstring and ankle).

Fantasy outlook: With 23 games over the previous two seasons, some fantasy drafters will avoid McCaffrey due to past bad experiences. When on the field, he is the best player in the game, with explosiveness in all three areas (yards, scoring, and catches). His ADP (4) in the FFWC ranks him behind Jonathan Taylor at running back in the early draft season. Go big or go home pick, but I would limit my exposure if playing in a high number of leagues.

RB D'Onta Foreman - Fantasy Handcuff

After an injury to Derrick Henry, Foreman worked his way into serviceable snaps late in 2021. He finished 689 combined yards with three scores and nine catches. Tennessee gave him 20 touches or more in four of their final six matchups, leading to 542 yards with three touchdowns and six catches (13.03 FPPG in PPR formats).

Fantasy outlook: Foreman has been in the NFL for four seasons, but he has never had a full-time starting job. His play last year gives him a chance for early-down touches if Carolina has an injury to their star running back.

RB Chuba Hubbard - Low Potential

Over three seasons at Oklahoma State, Hubbard gained 4,097 yards with 36 touchdowns and 53 catches. He averaged 5.9 yards per rush and 9.0 yards per catch. When at his best in 2019, Hubbard rushed over 100 yards in 12 of his 13 starts, highlighted by four games with over 200 yards (26/221/3, 32/256/3, 25/296/1, and 20/223/2). He had over 20 touches in every game except Week 2 (8/44/1).

Hubbard runs with rhythm and vision while willing to take what a defense gives him. He has a north/south feel, but he can win on the outside when given daylight. Hubbard dominated in his sophomore season at Oklahoma State (328/2,094/21), helped by a heavy workload (27 touches per week). Unfortunately, Hubbard wasn't the same player in 2020 (133/625/5 over seven games).

The Panthers gave him 197 touches in relief of Christian McCaffrey, leading to 786 combined yards with six touchdowns and 25 catches. However, he gained only 3.6 yards per rush and 7.0 yards per catch while only five playable games (18.40, 13.50, 15.10, 15.80, and 13.60 fantasy points). Carolina gave him only 7.9 touches per game over his final nine games.

Fantasy outlook: In late June, Hubbard has an ADP of 259 in the FFWC, ranking him third on the Panthers' depth chart (70th overall). His wide gap as a possible handcuff makes him more attractive to someone buying Christian McCaffrey insurance. I expect better in his second year in the NFL, but he'll have minimal value without an injury.

WR D.J. Moore - Solid/Safe Pick

Moore delivered almost identical stats in receiving yards (1,175, 1,193, and 1,157) and touchdowns (4, 4, and 4) over the past three seasons. He finished with a career-high in catches (93) in 2021 due to a spike in targets (163). However, his catch rate (57.1) came in below his first three years (62.1) while also seeing a decline in his yards per catch (12.4 – 18.1 in 2020).

His best value came over the first four weeks (6/80, 8/79/1, 8/126, and 8/113/2). He scored only once over his final 13 starts, with over 100 yards receiving (4/103) in one matchup. Moore had a floor of six catches in eight games. The Panthers gave him double-digit targets in 10 matchups.

Fantasy outlook: Moore has a high floor, but he can't approach WR1 status without adding more touchdowns to his resume. Over the past three seasons, Moore finished 16th (231.80), 25th (211.50), and 27th (239.00) in wide receiver scoring in PPR leagues. Based on his resume, his ADP (47) in the FFWC seems more than fair, but a healthy Christian McCaffrey will eat into his chances. His next step is 100+ catches for 1,250 yards with five to seven touchdowns.

WR Robbie Anderson - Bye Week Fill-in

After failing to live up to expectations over four seasons in New York, Anderson developed into a high-volume receiver in Carolina in 2020. He caught 95 of his 136 targets (69.9 percent) for 1,096 yards and three touchdowns. Anderson gained a career-low 11.5 yards per catch.

The Panthers gave him his best opportunity over the first five weeks (36/489/1) while averaging 9.2 targets. Over his final nine starts, Anderson failed to gain over 95 yards in any matchup, with combined 49 catches for 456 yards and two touchdowns. Carolina gave him 8.6 targets per game over this span.

In his final two years in New York with Sam Darnold starting at quarterback, He caught 88 of his 164 targets (53.7 percent) for 1,353 yards and 11 touchdowns.

The switch at quarterback led to a regression season (53/519/5 on 110 targets) for Anderson in 2021. He finished with 26 fewer targets but a sharp decline in his catch rate (48.2 – 69.9 in 2020). Anderson scored over 20.00 fantasy points in PPR leagues in one contest (7/84/1).

Fantasy outlook: Anderson has an ADP of 185 in the early draft season in the FFWC while ranking as backend WR6. He should rebound in 2022 while never approaching his success in 2020. At best, 70 catches for 800 yards with a handful of scores.

WR Terrace Marshall - Low Potential

In 2019, Marshall caught a piece of the Joe Burrow ride to the national championship, leading to 46 catches for 671 yards and 13 touchdowns. He flashed over the first seven games last year (48/731/10) before opting out. His best output came in the third game (11/235/3) of the season against Missouri.

He projects to be a vertical threat early in his career while doing damage on comeback throws. Marshall offers size (6'2" and 205 lbs.) and speed (4.38 40-yard dash on his pro day). However, his release looks questionable and lacks tempo. He needs to add more fight to his game off the snap and at the top of his routes to reach a high level.

Marshall ended his rookie season with only 17 catches for 138 yards and no touchdowns on 30 targets. He missed three games with a concussion issue and foot injury.

Fantasy outlook: Marshall has a professional feel with the talent to develop into a WR2 in the Panthers' offense down the road. His ceiling falls on his motivation to work hard on his route running. This draft season, he projects to be a waiver-wire option unless his summer camp news suggests growth in his game.

WR Shi Smith - Dynasty Only

Smith worked as a possession receiver over four seasons at South Carolina, leading to 174 catches for 2,204 yards and 13 touchdowns on 273 targets. In 2020 in nine matchups, he caught 57 passes for 633 yards and four scores. Smith showed improvement in his route running in his final year in college. His future lies in the slot while also having the speed to beat a defender deep. He makes plays in the open field with the willingness to fight for his space in tight quarters after facing bump and run coverage. Smith needs to be more physical on his release and out of his breaks to create a larger passing window.

Other Options: Rashard Higgins, Brandon Zylstra, Andre Roberts

TE Tommy Tremble - Deep-league Only

Over his 19 games with the Fighting Irish, Tremble caught 35 balls for 401 yards with four touchdowns. Only once in his career did he catch more than four passes in a game or gain over 50 yards receiving.

Tremble earned his way into the NFL as a blocker, but his frame (6'3" and 245 lbs.) isn't ideal for a lead role at tight end. He continues to improve, but his growth in the passing game at Notre Dame was restricted by a pair of talented players in front of him on the depth chart. Tremble ran a 4.59 40-yard dash on his pro day while also showing short-area quickness. However, his hands look to be in question when facing tight coverage.

In his rookie season, Tremble caught 20 catches for 191 yards and two touchdowns on 35 targets.

Fantasy outlook: Tremble needs time to develop in the passing game while possibly having the best fit as a move tight end on early downs. His speed will play well when overlooked by a defense in the deep passing game. There's more here than meets the initial eye. He won't be drafted in any 12-team leagues in 2022.

Other Options: Ian Thomas, Stephen Sullivan, Colin Thompson

PK Zane Gonzalez - Not Draft Worthy

In his first season with the Panthers, Gonzalez finished with his highest success rate (90.9) in field goals with only one miss in his 23 extra-point tries. His leg from 50 yards or more (11-for-18) looks serviceable. However, a quad injury led to Gonzalez missing the final four games.

Fantasy outlook: Despite an up and down opportunity over his five seasons in the NFL, Gonzalez has the talent to be a better kicking option while at the same time having job loss risk. The Panthers scored only 32 touchdowns last season while creating 29 field goal chances. I expect better offensive play this year, giving Gonzalez potential matchup value in some weeks.

Carolina - Not Draft Worthy

The Panthers bumped to 18th in rushing yards allowed (1,935) with 16 touchdowns and nine runs over 20 yards. They allowed only 27.9 rushing attempts per game, with ball carriers gaining 4.1 yards per rush.

Carolina rose to 4th in passing yards allowed (3,266) with 26 touchdowns and nine interceptions. Their defense finished with 39 sacks, with quarterbacks gaining 6.9 yards per pass attempt.

The secondary of the Panthers has the potential to be one of the better units in the league, especially if their two young cornerbacks (CJ Henderson and Jaycee Horn) reach this potential after battling injuries last season. The linebacker position has a veteran feel while being another draft class away from adding difference-maker talent. Carolina has three developing young players on the defensive line (Brian Burns, Derrick Brown, and Yetur Gross-Matos) who all need improvement against the run.

This defense isn't far off. If a couple of players emerge in the pass rush, the Panthers have the talent to be a week-in and week-out fantasy defense. They rank 24th in the FFWC in late June, making them a buying opportunity with the right matchups.