Las Vegas Raiders
By Jody Smith, Sunday, September 1, 2024 |
Rumors ahead of the 2024 NFL draft speculated that new head coach Antonio Pierce and the Las Vegas Raiders were in the market for a rookie quarterback after experimenting with Jimmy Garappolo and Aiden O'Connell last season. Unfortunately, they were unable to land the targets in which they coveted. Fortunately, though, they brought in a quarterback via free agency who has plenty of what Pierce is looking for in Gardner Minshew. Wherever Minshew goes, a rookie quarterback is sure to follow. Last year, the Colts drafted Anthony Richardson after signing Minshew. Technically, Jalen Hurts was an Eagle before Minshew, but the Jaguars did draft Trevor Lawrence to replace Minshew in Jacksonville. Minshew needs to get the credit he deserves. In 37 career starts, over 49 games played, he has thrown more touchdown passes (59) and fewer interceptions (24) than the generational Trevor Lawrence. That is the kind of production from the quarterback position Davante Adams was not getting from Garappolo or O'Connell last season. Regardless of whoever lines up under center, Adams is a wide receiver you can trust when selecting at the start of the second round of your fantasy drafts. While the 31-year-old receiver is entering his 11th season, he is still producing. Adams has posted five 1000-yard seasons over the last six years, including 1,144 yards on 103 receptions in 2023. All that production resulted in a fantasy WR11 fantasy finish a season ago. After Adams, it becomes interesting. Jakobi Meyers had some excellent fantasy value as a flex option heading into the draft. However, the Raiders' selection of Georgia tight end Brock Bowers puts a cap on Meyers' fantasy potential entering the 2024 season. Last year, Meyers averaged 13.1 fantasy points per game. But with Bowers' ability to play in the slot, it's hard to envision Meyers having that kind of success when asked to line out wide. Bowers will likely be better for the Raiders than he will for your fantasy teams. In three seasons at Georgia, he finished with 2,538 yards and 26 touchdowns on 175 passes. Bowers is an excellent complement for Adams, as he finished last season with 56 receptions, six touchdowns, and 714 yards after returning in October from ankle surgery. RB Zamir White finds himself well-positioned to have a top-15-caliber season at the running back position. From weeks 15 through 18, White would average 23.3 touches while churning out 114.3 per game, finishing as the RB12 in fantasy over that stretch. White also would finish sixth in yards after contact per attempt, 13th in explosive run rate, and 17th in success rate. White is an intriguing mid-round target. QB Gardner Minshew - Bye Week Fill-inThe Raiders plan to have Gardner Minshew and Aidan O'Connell compete for the team's starting role this summer. "That's the plan, to have both those guys really compete through the offseason program, but more so in training camp, and we'll see how it plays out," said GM Tom Telesco. Minshew is considered the favorite to win that role. He was slightly more effective than O'Connell and signed the contract of a player expected to start. Regardless of who wins, Las Vegas will be a run-first offense under Antonio Pierce and Luke Getsy. The Raiders QB spot should be avoided until there is some clarity. ADVICE: Only draftable in deep superflex leagues UPDATE: Minshew will open the season as the club's starter, but his ability to retain that job for 18 weeks is uncertain. QB Aidan O'Connell - Dynasty OnlyADVICE: O'Connell passing metrics were very similar to Gardner Minshew last season. He'll be given every opportunity to beat out the newcomer in the preseason. The ceiling isn't very high, but whoever wins the Raiders' starting job can be a weekly streamer. UPDATE: Gardner Minshew will open the seasson as the Raiders' starter, as expected. O'Connell is merely a QB3/4 to roster in deeper dynasty formats. Injury Status: Out - Coach's DecisionRB Zamir White - Sleeper (undervalued)After Josh Jacobs went down, Zamir White did a solid Jacbos impression, piling up 114.3 scrimmage yards per game in the Raiders' final four. White was the fantasy RB12 in the final month of the season. Meanwhile, Jacobs signed with Green Bay and the Raiders did not sign veteran competition in free agency. White will be given every opportunity to retain the team's starting role. With questionable quarterback play and a run-first offense under offensive coordinator Luke Getsy, White has a path to 300 touches. That makes him one of the top middle-round Zero RB sleepers to target. ADVICE: One of the top mid-draft sleepers to target RB Alexander Mattison - Deep-league OnlyADVICE: Mattison was woefully inefficient last season with Minnesota. He'll revert back to a change-of-pace role with the Raiders behind Zamir White. With the luster gone, Mattison is merely an RB5/6 option in deeper leagues. RB Dylan Laube - Dynasty OnlyLaube is a dark horse to target as a potential pass-catching option out of the backfield. WR Michael Gallup - Not Draft WorthyADVICE: Gallup retired ahead of training camp. WR Davante Adams - Stud (low risk)Adams's yards per route run (YPRR) decreased from an exceptional 2.45 to a still-impressive 1.97 last year. This drop in per-play efficiency was anticipated, given his record-setting performance in 2022 in terms of average depth of target (aDot, 12.8), yards per reception (15.2), deep-target rate (22.6%), and missed tackles forced (16). Davante Adams is once again due for a high-volume role. His 80.0 PFF receiving grade ties for 18th among 33 NFL wide receivers with at least 105 targets. The Raiders didn't add any WRs to speak of in the draft or via free agency. ADVICE: Due to his outstanding ability to earn targets, Adams is highly likely to finish within WR1 range again in 2024 WR Jakobi Meyers - Quality BackupAfter struggling to find the end zone in New England, Jakobi Meyers scored an unexpected 10 touchdowns in his first season with the Raiders. Meyers saw 15 red-zone targets (22nd) and ranked 35th in expected points added. However, Las Vegas has an unsettled quarterback room and those rates are not sustainable in an offense that will look to establish the run with Antonio Pierce and Luke Getsy. The good news is Meyers is locked into a starting role and will continue to benefit from the presence of Davante Adams. ADVICE: Don't expect another 10 TDs, but Meyers is a solid depth option with some streaming value and a favorable schedule WR Tre Tucker - Low PotentialADVICE: Chance to have some week-to-week streaming value but unlikely to see enough targets to be a reliable option. Tucker's stock rises a little thanks to the retirement of Michael Gallup. But he's still well of the redraft radar. TE Brock Bowers - Solid/Safe PickWith Antonio Pierce and Luke Getsy in town, expect a ton of 12 sets from the Raiders. That's promising for sensational first-round rookie TE Brock Bowers, who is a superlative route runner, playmaker, and downfield weapon with elite speed. Bowers is also versatile enough to be a rushing threat but fantasy managers should be cautioned on the history of slow starts for rookie tight ends. Additionally, the Raiders ran the third-fewest plays per game last season and are still unsettled at quarterback. Bowers has a top-3 skill set but his 2024 floor is lower than other fantasy TE1s. ADVICE: Risk/reward prospect in a run-first offense but could be overdrafted due to Sam LaPorta's rookie success TE Michael Mayer - Dynasty OnlyADVICE: Hurt by the selection of Brock Bowers but Mayer could still see enough targets to warrant the occasional spot start in deeper leagues PK Daniel Carlson - Not Draft WorthyAfter three consecutive stellar seasons, Carlson fell off a cliff last year. The Raiders' sluggish offense resulted in Carlson attempting his fewest field goals in four years and fewest extra points since his rookie campaign. The new-look Raiders are being built into a smashmouth defensive team, so Carlson isn't a good bed to rebound. He's a solid kicker but is outside of the top 15 options in 2024. Las Vegas - Solid/Safe PickAntonio Pierce had an immediate influence on the Raiders defense. Vegas improved dramatically last season, vaulting up to ninth in points allowed and ranking 12th against the pass. The Raiders also were a top-10 fantasy unit thanks to four DST scores and 46 sacks. While we can't expect a repeat of those TDs, the Raiders are a surging defense that should contend for top-12 fantasy numbers. |