Las Vegas Raiders

With high-stakes fantasy football legend Shawn Childs anchoring Sports Illustrated's fantasy coverage, we decided to give our take on Shawn's Team Outlooks. While we won't always agree, Shawn's pedigree speaks for itself. Shawn has been a high-stakes Fantasy Football legend since 2004 when he had success in his first season (three titles and $25,000 in winnings). Childs has competed and won six-figures in all different formats – auctions, draft championships, main events, and high-dollar leagues. We dare you to find an expert who knows the NFL player pool better than Shawn Childs -- it can't be done!

The Las Vegas Raiders appear to have the best combination of WR1 (Davante Adams), WR2 (Hunter Renfrow), and TE Darren Waller) in the AFC West, pointing to an exciting 2022 season. QB Derek Carr has never been an impact fantasy quarterback, but he now has the tools to shine. The Raiders would love for RB Josh Jacobs to add more explosiveness to his game to help their scoring in the red zone, but he could be playing for his next contract with another team. Las Vegas may end up being the longest odds to win their division at SI Sportsbook, but they have the talent to be the best team.

Offense

The Raiders had almost the season run/pass split (39.7/60.3) as the Chiefs in 2021, but they scored 20 fewer touchdowns (37). The addition of Davante Adams improves their scoring and how defenses will play Las Vegas. This year, they should have more success in the passing game and growth expected running the ball in the red zone.

QB Derek Carr - Quality Backup

In his eighth season with Las Vegas, Carr set career-highs in completions (428), pass attempts (626), and passing yards (4,804). On the downside, he finished with below the league average in touchdowns (23) for the fourth time in five years and the most interceptions (14) in his time in the NFL.

His completion rate (68.7) has been a strength over the past four seasons while improving his yards per pass attempt over the last three years (7.9, 7.9, and 7.7). Carr passed for over 300 yards in seven of his 18 games (including the postseason), but he failed to throw more than two touchdowns in any matchup. Carr finished as the 12th highest scoring quarterback (324.40) in four-point passing touchdown leagues despite his low-scoring ability. Before 2021 (40/108), he chipped in with some scores on the ground over the previous three seasons (24/47/1, 27/82/2, and 39/140/3).

Fantasy outlook: Carr has the tools and opportunity to pass for 5,000 yards with a chance to set a career-high in touchdowns (32 in 2015). In the National Fantasy Football Championship, he ranks 13th at quarterback. I'd rather own Carr as an upside QB2 than settle for him as my starting QB if I get beat at the position.

Other Options: Nick Mullens, Jarrett Stidham, Chase Garbers

RB Josh Jacobs - Quality Backup

Las Vegas gave Jacobs 306 touches over 15 games in 2020. His opportunity fell by 11.4% in 2022, leading to 1,120 combined yards with nine touchdowns on 271 touches. He set a career-high in catches (54) and receiving yards (348). However, Jacobs gained only 4.0 yards per carry and 6.4 yards per catch while gaining 20 yards or more on only four plays (eight over his past 577 chances).

He rushed for over 100 yards in two games at home (27/129 and 26/132/1). Jacobs played the best over his final five games (97/459/2 – 4.7 yards per rush and 14 catches for 110 yards), possibly setting a higher bar for his output in 2022.

Fantasy outlook: The Raiders didn't pick up Jacobs' fifth-year option, putting him in a contract year. He ranks 22nd at running back in NFFC in the early draft season with an ADP of 45. In this year's draft, Las Vegas added RB Zamir White, pointing to more competition for touches on early downs for Jacobs. My conservative outlook for him is 1,150 combined yards in early June with eight to 10 scores and 40 catches.

RB Zamir White - Super Sleeper (high risk/potential)

The Bulldogs tend to have a deep bench of talented running backs, leading to multiple runners getting chances each season. White played in 15 games last year, but he gained only 931 yards with 11 touchdowns and nine catches on 169 touches. Over his three seasons, White finished with success in the run game (382/2,043/25) with minimal chances to catch the ball (17/132). Last year he had only one contest with over 100 yards rushing (14/105) and fewer than 15 touches in 13 games.

I feel for pro athletes who work hard to get stronger and build their bodies for success. Unfortunately, White has already blown out his right (2017) and left (2018) ACLs. Georgia used him as a north/south runner, which led to plenty of contact in tight quarters. White had a grinder feel but flashed quickness and elusiveness when breaking free at the second level of the defense. When asked to make plays on the outside, he showed the ability to make defenders miss, thanks to a shimmy in his running style. White will make yards after contact while being at his best late games.

Fantasy outlook: White gives the Raiders early-down insurance for Josh Jacobs. He comes off the early draft board as the 59th running back with an ADP of 192 in the NFFC. White could work as a goal-line runner with value in short-yardage situations. Player to follow over the summer with a close eye to the direction and news about Josh Jacobs.

WR Keelan Cole - Deep-league Only

Twice over his five years in the NFL, Cole produced playable stats (42/748/3 and 55/642/5). However, he never had over 88 targets in a season. Last year the Jets gave him a minimal opportunity (28/449/1), but Cole did gain 15.0 yards per catch for the third time in his career.

Fantasy outlook: His overall resume gives him the inside track to be the Raiders' WR3 in 2022. Cole offers sneaky big-play ability with occasional replacement value.

WR Davante Adams - Stud (low risk)

Over the past four seasons, Adams caught 432 passes for 5,310 yards and 47 touchdowns on 614 targets. He secured 70.4% chances while averaging 7.8 catches for 93 yards and 0.82 touchdowns over 57 games. Last year Adams finished with new tops in catches (123) and receiving yards (1,553). He gained over 100 yards in eight matchups (8/121, 12/132/1, 11/206/1, 7/115/2, 8/104, 10/121/2, 10/114/2, and 11/136/1).

Fantasy drafters have an interesting dilemma evaluating Adams after the change to Las Vegas. In his two years playing with Derek Carr in 2012 and 2013 at Fresno State, Adams caught 33 passes for 3,031 yards and 38 targets, while Carr passed for 9.187 yards with 89 touchdowns and 15 interceptions.

Fantasy outlook: Adams should surely improve the overall passing attack by the Raiders, and he does have previous chemistry with Derek Carr. However, I expect regression in his production while maintaining a 100-catch floor with about 1,250 yards and double-digit touchdowns. In early June, Adams ranks fourth at wide receiver with an ADP of 11 in the NFFC.

WR Hunter Renfrow - Solid/Safe Pick

In his third season with Las Vegas, Renfrow emerged as a viable starting fantasy wide receiver, leading to 103 catches for 1,038 yards and nine scores on 128 targets. His best value came from Week 12 to Week 14 (8/134, 9/102, and 13/117/1). Renfrow had a floor of six catches in 11 of his 18 starts (including the playoffs). Despite his success, the Raiders gave him more than nine targets in only three matches (10, 14, and 11). Renfrow worked as a chain mover (10.1 yards per catch) with an exceptional catch rate (90.5).

Fantasy outlook: This year, Renfrow projects as the third receiving option for Las Vegas behind Davante Adams and Darren Waller. His floor should be five catches for 50 yards in many games with some value in scoring. He comes off the 33rd wideout in the high-stakes market in the early draft season with an ADP of 74. Nevertheless, Renfrow is challenging to cover, and he will get plenty of targets this year. I'll set the bar at 90 catches for 900 yards with five to seven touchdowns.

WR Demarcus Robinson - Low Potential

Over the past five seasons, Robinson worked as the Chiefs' third/fourth wide receiver. His best production (45/466/3 on 59 targets) came in 2020, but Kansas City gave him a weaker opportunity last season (25/264/3 on 41 targets). Robinson has never missed a game over six years in the NFL.

Fantasy outlook: The Raiders don't have a clear-cut WR3 option this year, but there won't be a lot of chances if Davante Adams, Hunter Renfrow, and Darren Waller stay healthy.

Other Options: Mack Hollins, Tyron Johnson, Dillon Stoner

TE Darren Waller - Stud (low risk)

After two excellent seasons (90/1,145/3 and 107/1,196/9), Waller missed six games in 2021 with ankle, knee, and back issues. He finished with two impact games (10/105/1 and 7/116) while averaging 8.4 targets (9.1 in 2020). Waller's stats (55/665/2) projected over 17 games came to 85 catches for 1,028 yards and three touchdowns. Over his last 43 games, he averaged 14.80 fantasy points in PPR formats.

Fantasy outlook: With Davante Adams in the field., Waller should see weaker coverage on more plays. He should finish with a top-five tight end opportunity in targets with a healthy season. His ADP (55) in the NFFC ranks him as the fifth tight end in early June. Waller is on a path to catch 90 passes for 1,000 yards and five to seven touchdowns.

Other Options: Foster Moreau, Jacob Hollister, Nick Bowers

PK Daniel Carlson - Solid/Safe Pick

Over the past two seasons, Carlson developed into a beast kicking field goals. He made 73 of his 78 chances (93.6%) with an edge from 50 yards or more (10-for-11). Carlson missed seven of his 116 extra points over the past three years. He finished with three field goals or more in nine of his 18 games (including playoffs).

Fantasy outlook: Based on his recent opportunity and success, Carlson should be a top-five kicker in 2022. His downside this year could be that the Raiders improve their touchdown efficiency in the red zone. I'm a fan of kickers who convert field goals, making Carlson an attractive option this draft season.

Las Vegas - Not Draft Worthy

The Raiders jumped to 19th in rushing yards allowed (1,943), with 18 touchdowns and 13 runs over 20 yards. Ball carriers gained 4.2 yards per carry.

Las Vegas worked their way to 13th in pass defense (3,789 yards), with quarterbacks tossing 29 touchdowns. Their defense finished with only six interceptions and 35 sacks. They allowed 6.6 yards per pass attempt.

The anchor of the Raiders' defense is DE Maxx Crosby, who signed a $99 million deal in March. He has 25 sacks over his first 39 games in the NFL with excellent play defending the run. Las Vegas hopes to add more pressure on the quarterback with DE Chandler Jones (84 sacks over his last 99 starts). LB Denzel Perryman had his best year in the league in tackles (154) and his first full-time starting job at age 28. However, Las Vegas lacks star power at the second level of their defense. Their secondary has four potential upside players – S Trevon Moehrig, S Johnathan Abram, CB Trayvon Mullen, and CB Nate Hobbs.

With a new coaching staff and a history of struggling on the defensive side of the ball, the Raiders can't push higher up the defensive rankings without creating a smaller passing window and solidifying the interior of the defense against the run. As a result, I see more risk than reward, leading to minimal fantasy value in 2022.