Los Angeles Rams

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The Los Angeles Rams have been a top team in the NFL since Sean McVay arrived in 2017. After an offseason switch from Jared Goff to Matthew Stafford at quarterback, the Rams reached the Holy Grail in football by winning the 2021 Super Bowl. The success was driven by an all-time season by WR Cooper Kupp (145/1,947/16), setting the stage for follow-through in 2022. Los Angeles flipped WR Odell Beckham for WR Allen Robinson on their depth chart in the offseason, but there is still a chance Beckham returns to the team. Cam Akers missed more of the regular season with an Achilles injury, leaving a void at running back for the Rams. He has an excellent opportunity to be a stud lead back, but is Akers an elite talent? His play last season invites some trepidation about his ability to be a workhorse runner. DE Aaron Donald remains a beast attacking the quarterback and defending the run.

Offense

Looking back on 2021, the Rams' offense only did one thing well. They got the ball to Cooper Kupp. He accounted for almost 40% of their passing yards and 46.3% of their passing touchdowns. They rank the ball 40.9% of the time. Their offense gained 500 fewer yards than the Dallas Cowboys (7,082).

Running Backs

QB Matthew Stafford - Solid/Safe Pick

Over the five previous seasons before landing in Los Angeles, Stafford had a league-average feel at quarterback. He tossed 119 touchdowns and 46 interceptions over 72 games while averaging 265.7 passing yards.

Stafford matched his career-high in touchdowns (41) last year with success in his completion rate (67.2). The Rams gave him the receiver talent to challenge defenses deep in the passing game, leading to a league-high 18 completions over 40 yards. He finished with over 300 yards passing in nine of his 20 matchups (including playoffs) and nine games with three scores or more in the regular season. Stafford offers no fantasy help in the run game (32/43).

Fantasy outlook: The Rams have one of the best wide receivers (Cooper Kupp) in the game, and their secondary receiving options blend well for Stafford when asked to move the ball. I expect WR Allen Robinson to shine in this offense, creating another productive year in yards and touchdowns for Stafford. He finished last year fifth in quarterback scoring (399.10) in four-point passing touchdowns formats. In the early draft season in the National Fantasy Football Championship, he ranks eighth at quarterback. The Rams will throw the ball over 600 times, giving him a chance at 5,000 yards with a floor of two scores a game. Ultimately, his most significant risk comes from better success running the ball, especially in close.

Other Options: John Wolford, Bryce Perkins

RB Cam Akers - Gamble (high risk)

Over the first 11 weeks in 2020, Akers offered emptiness in the fantasy market leading to 228 combined yards with one touchdown and three catches on 53 touches while missing two games with a rib injury. However, he flashed in Week 12 (9/84/1), creating a starting job down the stretch.

From Week 13 through the second round of the playoffs, over six games, the Rams gave Akers 23.8 touches per start. He gained 708 combined yards with three scores and 11 catches, highlighted by two matchups (194 combined yards with two catches and 176 combined yards with one touchdown and two catches). He missed Week 16 with an ankle issue.

Unfortunately, an Achilles injury before the season led to only eight touches in Week 18 for 13 yards with three catches. The Rams tried to get Akers going in the postseason, but he struggled in the run game (54/151/0 – 2.8 yards per carry) while picking up five catches for 62 yards. He also battled a shoulder issue in the playoffs.

Over three seasons in college, Akers gained 3,360 combined yards with 34 touchdowns and 69 catches on 655 touches. His highlight season came in 2019 (1,369 combined yards with 18 scores and 30 catches).

Akers graded well in speed (4.47 40-yard dash), and the bench press (20 reps of 225 lbs.) in the 2020 NFL combine. However, his short-area quickness isn't ideal. His free-flowing style works well in space while showing the vision to add yards at the second level of the defense if given open field to make plays. Akers will make some big plays with a feel for scoring in close.

Fantasy outlook: Despite an empty resume in 2021, Akers ranks 15th at running back in the early draft season in the NFFC with an ADP of 29. The Rams remain reluctant to feature their backs in the passing game, creating a lower ceiling for Akers. In addition, Darrell Henderson isn't going away without an injury. Based on last year, there are only about 440 chances for the Rams' running backs. I set his bar at 225 carries and 30 catches, putting Akers on a path for 1,150 combined yards with double-digit scores while also understanding he plays in an offense that could create many more chances.

RB Darrell Henderson - Sleeper (undervalued)

The injury to Cam Akers handed Henderson the keys to the starting job in Week 1. He played well over eight games (110/507/5 with 16 catches for 141 yards and two touchdowns) while missing Week 3 with a rib issue. After three dull showings (172 combined yards with one score and 11 catches on 43 touches), his season was all but over due to thigh and knee injury plus a battle with Covid-19.

Over the previous two seasons, Henderson gained 1,647 combined yards with 14 touchdowns and 45 catches on 332 touches.

Henderson turned in an impressive season in 2018 (2,204 combined yards with 25 touchdowns and 19 catches) for Memphis despite only receiving 233 touches. He gained 8.9 yards per rush and 15.5 yards per catch, supported by his success in 2017 (8.9 and 9.4). In his college career, Henderson caught 63 passes for 758 yards and eight scores.

He runs with power and home run ability while consistently breaking arm tackles. His vision graded well while offering subtle movements to create big yardage on what looks like small windows at the point of attack.

Fantasy outlook: The Rams will get Henderson on the field for a minimum of one-third of their plays. His floor should be 150 touches with 750 yards, five scores, and 25 catches. In the NFFC, his ADP (132) creates an easy buying opportunity in many drafts for some looking to add him as a handcuff to Cam Akers, something I view as a must.

Other Options: Kyren Williams, Jake Funk, Xavier Jones

WR Cooper Kupp - Stud (low risk)

In his fifth season in the NFL, Kupp posted the greatest wide receiver season in history. He finished with 145 catches (2nd to Michael Thomas in 2019 – 149) for 1,947 yards (2nd to Calvin Johnson in 2012 – 1,964) and 16 touchdowns, leading to 440.0 fantasy points. Kupp averaged 11.2 targets per game with an impressive 30 catches of 20 yards or more and nine receptions reaching the 40-yard mark.

The Rams gave him double-digit chances in 16 of his 20 games (including postseason). Kupp scored two touchdowns in six matchups, leading to eight impact games (37.30, 30.60, 34.00, 37.60, 31.30, 34.70, 32.30, and 37.20 fantasy points) in PPR leagues. Only once did he score fewer than 17.00 fantasy points. Kupp broke the 100-yard receiving mark 12 times with a floor of seven catches in 17 games.

Fantasy outlook: In 2019 and 2020, Kupp had the foundation skill set to rank as a top-tier WR1 based on his catch rate (72.1). Last year, Matthew Stafford gave him an improved opportunity, with more chances downfield. This combination led to more length on his catches (13.4) without giving up his catch rate (75.9). Kupp plays for a high-volume passing wide receiver team, which won't change in 2022. He is the first wideout drafted in the NFFC with an ADP of 3. Even with some regression, I see another beast of a season, so I'll set his floor at 125 catches for 1,500 yards and 12 scores.

WR Allen Robinson - Solid/Safe Pick

Robinson finished eighth (254.90 fantasy points) and ninth (262.90 fantasy points) in scoring in PPR leagues in 2019 and 2020. Chicago looked his way 305 times over this span, leading to 200 catches for 2,397 yards and 13 touchdowns. His catch rate (65.6) has been strong over these two seasons.

In 2020, he gained over 100 yards in four contests (10/123/1, 7/101/1, 9/123/1, and 10/103). Robinson had a floor of six catches in 11 of his 17 games played. Twenty-two over his 102 catches in 2020 gained over 20 yards (one in each contest except Week 2).

The change at quarterback in Chicago led to a sharp decline in Robinson's output (38/410/1 over 12 weeks) and his opportunity (5.5 targets per game). He missed four of the final seven contests with a hamstring issue and Covid-19. Earlier in the season, Robinson played through an ankle issue.

Fantasy outlook: The Rams signed him to a three-year, $46.5 million deal in March with the plan to make Robinson their WR2. I expect him to have a 120 target opportunity, giving him a chance at 80 catches for 950 yards with six to eight scores. He ranks 27th at wide receiver in the early draft season in the NFFC with an ADP of 67. I expect him to outperform his price point, but I won't push him up in drafts.

WR Van Jefferson - Bye Week Fill-in

Over the first month of last season, Jefferson offered flash value in two games (2/80/1 and 6/90/1). By the end of Week 10, he had 30 catches for 487 yards and three touchdowns on 53 targets. Jefferson scored in his next three matchups (3/93/1, 6/41/1, and 2/58/1), but his role faded over his final seven games (14/202/0 25 targets).

Coming into the NFL, Jefferson got high marks for his route running and understanding of how to create space out of his breaks. He does not have the speed or explosiveness to be trusted as a consistent deep outside threat. His best value will come working over the short areas of the field, but I don't see the quickness of a Julian Edelman-type receiver out of the slot. Jefferson will make plays in tight coverage, but his lack of top-end speed does allow a defender to sit on some of his moves.

Jefferson failed to deliver an impact season in his four years at Florida and Mississippi (175/2159/16). He caught 49 passes in 2016 and 2019, with the best value in yards (657) coming in his senior year. Over his final 12 games, Jefferson caught 12 touchdowns.

Fantasy outlook: Surprisingly, Jefferson played better than expected in the deep passing. He finished 36th in wide receiver scoring (168.20) in PPR formats while being challenging to time. His ADP (163) in the NFFC ranks him as the 63rd wide receiver off the board. His next step in growth will result in more catches, but regression should be expected in his yards per catch. Jefferson fits better on a team as a WR5 with a chance at 65 catches for 800 yards and five scores.

WR Ben Skowronek - Low Potential

Skowronek offers size (6'3" and 220 lbs.) and route running, but his release, quickness, and overall speed rank below the top players in the NFL. He handles himself well in the blocking game, and his hands grade well. The Rams' vision with Skowronek could help push the run game forward while bringing sneaky pass-catching value late in games when playing from the lead.

Over his five seasons at Notre Dame, he caught 139 passes for 1,856 yards and 14 touchdowns on 238 targets.

The Rams gave him 20 targets in his rookie season, leading to 11 catches for 133 yards.

WR Tutu Atwell - Not Draft Worthy

In 2019 and 2020, over 22 games, Atwell caught 115 of his 177 targets for 1,897 yards and 19 touchdowns at Louisville. The Rams want him to stretch the field while also featuring him on some quick-hitting plays close to the line of scrimmage.

He brings speed to burn with an explosive feel after the catch. Atwell checks in at 5'9" and 165 lbs., inviting questions about his durability and ability to win contested balls in tight quarters. He will test a defense deep while adding explosive daylight plays close to the line of scrimmage.

Atwell didn't have a catch in his rookie season while being on the field for only 10 plays.

TE Tyler Higbee - Bye Week Fill-in

Higbee won fantasy owners a ton of money in 2019 with his incredible five-game run (7/107/1, 7/116, 12/111, 9/104, and 8/84/1) to end the year. Over his first 58 games in the NFL, Higbee caught 86 passes for 884 yards and five touchdowns on 141 targets.

His sure thing price point in 2020 led to Higbee being a bust (44/521/5 on 60 targets). He gained fewer than 50 yards in 13 of his 16 games while never catching over five passes in a game. His only game of value came in Week 2 (5/54/3). Higbee finished with six catches or fewer in each of his games played.

Last year the Rams upped his targets to 85 (60 in 2020). Higbee finished with 61 catches for 560 yards and five touchdowns over 15 games. His only game of value came in Week 18 (6/55/2). Higbee scored fewer than 10.00 fantasy points in 12 of his 18 starts (including the postseason). Despite the appearance of weakness, only 13 other tight ends outscored him last year.

Fantasy outlook: Higbee appears to be a one-hit-wonder, but his chemistry with Matthew Stafford should improve in 2022. He ranks 19th at tight end in the high-stakes market in early July. At best, I see 65 catches for 700 yards and five touchdowns.

Other Options: Kendall Blanton, Bryce Hopkins, Jacob Harris

PK Matt Gay - Solid/Safe Pick

For fantasy drafters waiting on a kicker last season, Gay rewarded them with an excellent season. He made 94.1% of his field goal chances with success from 50 yards or more (4-for-5). Over 24 games with the Rams, Gay missed one of his 65 extra-point.

Fantasy outlook: In early July in the NFFC, he is the fourth kicker off the board. The Rams scored 52 touchdowns last season while creating 34 field goal chances. Gay plays in the right offense, and he makes his kicks. I had him on many teams last season, giving a soft spot for him again in 2022.

Los Angeles - Solid/Safe Pick

The Rams dripped to 6th in rushing yards allowed (1,754) with 18 touchdowns and four runs over 20 yards. Rushers gained 4.0 yards per carry with 26.1 attempts per game.

Los Angeles plummeted to 22nd pass defense (4,109 yards) with 17 touchdowns and 19 interceptions. Quarterbacks gained 7.2 yards per pass attempt. The Rams had the third-most sacks (50).

The bulk of the Rams' pass rush came from DE Aaron Donald (12.5) and LB Leonard Floyd (9.5). DE A'Shawn Robinson helps vs. the run with minimal value in the pass rush. DT Greg Gaines put more pressure on the quarterback last season while missing too many tackles. He did a better job clogging up the center of their defensive line.

The second level of their defense has the structure to offer more upside, attacking the quarterback and defending the run. LB Bobby Wagner brings a veteran presence with a long history of being a high-volume tackler.

CB Jalen Ramsey should no longer be considered a top player in coverage. He does his job on many downs, but quarterbacks no longer fear him, leading to some touchdowns allowed and many yards allowed. The Rams have two talented safeties who both help to defend the run. However, the second cornerback position does have some downside risk even with Los Angeles adding back CB Troy Hill via a trade in the offseason.

The Rams' defense gets plenty of respect in fantasy drafts (ranked 6th), but they can be hot and cold. Their success vs. the pass relies heavily on closing the passing window. When they don't, offenses will have plenty of chances to beat them via the air. Based on their sacks and turnovers created, Los Angeles will finish the year as a top 10 defense in 2022.