San Francisco 49ers

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The San Francisco 49ers rode the legs and hands of WR Deebo Samuel in 2021 to a second trip to the postseason in three years. But, ultimately, their lack of quarterback play led San Fran one game short of a Super Bowl berth. This season QB Trey Lance gets his chance to run their offense and show off his 2021 first-round draft pedigree. RB Elijah Mitchell flashed in his first year in the NFL, but he must prove he can stay healthy and handle a heavy early-down opportunity. In addition, San Francisco has a rising defense and two other robust receiving options (WR Brandon Aiyuk and TE George Kittle). The 49ers will be in the heat of the battle again in 2022.

Offense

San Francisco wants to run the ball, and that opportunity should only improve with Trey Lance expected to start this year. They have an excellent blend of front-line receivers, and WR Deebo Samuel brought the run to a whole new level over the second half of last season.

QB Trey Lance - Sleeper (undervalued)

With the third overall pick in the 2021 NFL Draft, the 49ers invested in Lance. His natural comparison would be Lamar Jackson by stats, but Lance can't match his top-end speed or arm strength. He plays with his eyes up when breaking the pocket while featuring an explosive gear when turning a run up field. My comp is closer to Deshaun Watson in overall look.

Lance needs more experience reading defenses and will be tested as a passer at the next level. His challenge will come in defeating coverage in the deep passing game as his reads will invite runs before a wide receiver breaks free over the long field.

Lance comes to the NFL with one starting season on his resume in college. In his sophomore year in 2019, he passed for 2,786 yards and 28 touchdowns while not throwing an interception. In addition, Lance was a beast on the ground (169/1,100/14), setting up an intriguing NFL career. In 2020, North Dakota State canceled the football season after one game, leading to him entering the draft.

His style of play fits well in the 49ers' offense. They want to control the line of scrimmage with a dominant run game while offering an exciting combination of receivers at wide receiver and tight end.

In six games of action in his rookie season, he gained 771 combined yards with six touchdowns and two interceptions.

Fantasy outlook: Lance offers an explosive ceiling with the starting job. He has a cheat QB1 feel while drawing the 13th ranking in the National Fantasy Football Championship in the early draft season. With 17 starts, Lance should gain 4,500 combined yards with an excellent chance at 30 combined scores.

QB Jimmy Garoppolo - Deep-league Only

Coming into 2022, Garoppolo will be behind schedule due to surgery on his right shoulder in March. He finished last season with strength in his completion rate (68.3) and his yards per pass attempt (8.6). Garoppolo has been a winning quarterback (33-14) for the Patriots and 49ers.

Over his final nine games last year (including the postseason), he passed for 2,233 yards (248 per game) with only 10 touchdowns and 10 interceptions. In the playoffs, Garoppolo gained 540 yards in three matchups with two touchdowns and three interceptions. His completion rate (58.1) was a clear sign that his shoulder wasn't healthy. When at his best, he passed for over 300 yards in five contests while failing to deliver more than two scores in any game.

Fantasy outlook: The 49ers want Trey Lance to start, but Garoppolo could emerge at any moment if he struggles. At the very least, he will be a handcuff to Lance, but Garoppolo still won't be a desirable fantasy starter.

Other Options: Nate Sudfeld, Brock Purdy

RB Elijah Mitchell - Solid/Safe Pick

For those fantasy drafters preaching to Trey Sermon or Raheem Mostert in the 49ers backfield in 2021, Mitchell emerged as their Week 1 starter and an excellent waiver wire pick. When on the field for his 11 games during the regular season, he delivered five games with over 100 yards rushing (19/104/1, 18/107/1, 18/137/1, 27/133/1, and 21/119) with a limited role in the passing game (19/137/1). San Francisco gave him at least 18 touches in 11 of his 14 matchups (including the playoffs).

Unfortunately, he missed six games with rib, finger, concussion, and knee issues. Mitchell had surgery on his knee after the season. The 49ers expect him to be ready for Week 1.

Over his four seasons at Louisiana, Mitchell had success on the ground (527/3,267/41 – 6.2 yards per rush) with some chances in the passing game (49/597/5). He brings plus speed and explosiveness to the 49ers' offense.

Fantasy outlook: The only thing Mitchell didn't do well in his rookie season was staying healthy. San Francisco made their running back bet in 2021, and they should continue to give him the lion's share of snaps this year. With 17 starts, Mitchell should have an easy floor of 1,500 combined yards with double-digit scores and a bump over 35 catches. In the NFFC, he has an ADP of 53 as the 24th running back selected. Mitchell plays in a great offense for the running back position while needing to clear the injury bug hurdle.

RB Tyrion Davis-Price - Bye Week Fill-in

The 49ers added Davis-Price in the third round of the 2022 NFL Draft. Over his three seasons at LSU, he gained 1,930 combined yards with 15 touchdowns and 28 catches on 407 touches. His best chance in the run game came in 2021 (211/1,004/6).

Davis-Price runs with power and wiggle, but his lack of experience held him back at LSU. He brings vision with the fire to quickly attack the line of scrimmage after the snap. However, Davis-Price must learn more patience to get into a better rhythm with his offensive line. His value in the passing game looks limited early in his career, and fumbles may creep into his stat line.

Fantasy outlook: The 49ers drafted him high enough where Davis-Price may have the inside track to win their backup role. He's looked good in August and might carve out a role at some point in 2022.

RB Trey Sermon - Dynasty Only

Between four seasons at Oklahoma and Ohio State, Sermon rushed for 2,946 yards on 455 carries with 26 touchdowns. He finished with a minimal role in the passing game (48/486/3). His season ended in 2020 with a shoulder injury in the national championship game. Over his previous three starts, Sermon had 636 rushing yards and four touchdowns on 70 carries.

He profiles as a north/south runner with an occasional flash on the outside. Sermon can break some tackles, but his speed doesn't separate him from the top-tier running back inventory. In addition, his value in the passing game isn't high enough to command a third-down role in the NFL.

He gained 193 combined yards in his rookie season with one touchdown and three catches on 44 touches. A concussion issue knocked him out of action in Week 2 after a healthy scratch on opening day. His season ended in Week 12 with a right ankle injury.

Fantasy outlook: The first question fantasy drafters need to answer entering 2022 is whether Sermon has the game to be the top handcuff for Mitchell. The 49ers told the world who they believed last year, so he now needs an injury to earn playable time of value. As a result, Sermon is only a player to follow for now until the coach-speak out of San Francisco paints a higher picture about his opportunity.

UPDATE: Trey Sermon, who the 49ers traded up to draft, was released before his sophomore campaign could even get started and eventually was signed by the Philadelphia Eagles. He'll join a crowded backfield in an attempt to save his NFL career.

Other options: Jeff Wilson, JaMycal Hasty, Jordan Mason

WR Deebo Samuel - Stud (low risk)

Samuel emerged as a beast in his third season in the NFL. He busted out of the gate with four impact games (9/189/1, 8/157/2, 7/100/1, and 6/171) over the first seven weeks (44/819/4). The 49ers transitioned him into a rotational role in the run game in Week 10, leading to sensational success on the ground (80/480/8) over his final 11 starts (including the postseason). The downside of his change in workload was fewer chances in the passing game (54 targets – 4.9 per game). As a result, Samuel only had two showings of value (5/97/1 and 9/159) after Week 9.

He finished the year third in wide receiver scoring (341.20) with eight games in the regular season with 20.00 or more fantasy points in PPR formats. Samuel averaged an impressive 18.2 yards per catch and 6.2 yards per rush. However, his catch rate (63.6) was hurt by 11 drops. He gained more than 20 yards on 23 of his 77 catches, with nine of those plays reaching the 40-yard mark.

Fantasy outlook: Samuel passed the eye test in a big way, and the 49ers must continue to exploit his explosiveness in all areas. The change to Trey Lance may lower his ceiling and big-play ability. Even with a slide to 70 catches for 1,050 yards and five receiving scores, Samuel should still gain 500 yards on the ground with a minimum of five more touchdowns. I love what he brings to the table, and I consider him a value based on his ADP (16) in early July in the NFFC.

WR Brandon Aiyuk - Quality Backup

After playing well in his rookie season (60/748/5) over 12 games, Aiyuk fell short of expectations last year while being outshined by Deebo Samuel by a wide margin. His catch rate (66.7) improved from 2020 (62.5), along with his yards per catch (14.8 – 12.5 in 2020), but the 49ers gave him only 4.9 targets per game. He finished with 56 catches for 843 yards and five scores, ranking him 35th in wide receiver scoring (171.50) in PPR formats.

His season started with emptiness over the first seven games (13/141/1 on 23 targets), making him unplayable in all fantasy formats. The transition to a part-time runner for Samuel led to him picking in the pace over his final 10 matchups (43/685/4 on 61 targets), highlighted by four games (6/89/1, 7/85/1, 6/62/1, and 6/107).

Fantasy outlook: For Aiyuk to reach a higher output, he needs the 49ers to throw the ball a lot more or an injury to either Samuel or TE George Kittle. He enters this season as San Francisco's third option in the passing game. To reach WR2 status in PPR formats, Aiyuk must receive 115 targets in 2022, an increase of over 33% from last season. His ADP (98) in the NFFC ranks him 40th at wideout. Aiyuk should outperform his price point with a chance at 70 catches for 900 yards with six to eight touchdowns

WR Danny Gray - Super Sleeper (high risk/potential)

The 49ers added Gray with their third-round selection in the 2022 NFL Draft. He brings speed (4.33 40-yards dash) with two years of experience at SMU (33/448/4 and 49/803/9 on 121 combined targets). Gray will compete for a rotational WR4 role in his rookie season, but could emerge into a decent late-round flier.

Fantasy Outlook: Gray scored a a long TD bomb from Trey Lance in San Francisco's preseason opener. His ADP is on the rise but he's still mostly being ignored in drafts. View him as a free pick with the last pick or two in most drafts.

WR Jauan Jennings - Not Draft Worthy

In his first season with snaps for the 49ers, Jennings created some mismatches due to his size (6'3" and 210 lbs.), leading to five of his 24 catches resulting in scores. The 49ers only gave him 13 targets over his first 11 games (8/70/2). He flashed in Week 18 (6/94/2) while earning five targets per game over the final five matchups (16/212/3).

Jennings had a minimal opportunity over five seasons in college (146/2,153/19 on 213 targets). His best success came in 2019 (59 catches for 969 yards and eight touchdowns on 92 targets).

Fantasy outlook: Even if Jennings wins the WR3 for the 49ers, he won't have enough chance to deliver starting fantasy stats in any format. At best, a deep bench player in best ball type leagues.

Other Options: Ray-Ray McCloud, Malik Turner, Marcus Turner

TE George Kittle - Stud (low risk)

Over the past three seasons, Kittle missed 13 contests with various injuries. His stats after his rookie season (292/3,974/18 on 400 targets) over 52 starts come to 5.6 catches for 78 yards and 0.35 touchdowns per week or 15.50 fantasy points in PPR formats.

Last year he finished fourth in tight end scoring (199.00) in PPR formats, but Kittle delivered 47.6% of his output in three games (6/101/1, 9/181/2, and 13/151/1). Unfortunately, his role in San Francisco's offense came up short in half of his start (8.00 fantasy points or fewer). Kittle only had 32 targets over his final seven games (4.6 per week). A calf issue cost him three games early in the season while lingering for most of the season. He also battled a minor knee issue in mid-December.

Fantasy outlook: In the early draft season in the NFFC, Kittle has an ADP of 52 as the fourth tight end off the table. He plays in a much better offense than Kyle Pitts while offering a high ceiling if Kittle could play an entire year. I view him as a weekly five-catch guy with a chance at more than 1,100 yards. His next step is adding more scoring to his results.

Other Options: Tyler Kroft, Charlie Woerner, Ross Dwelley

PK Robbie Gould - Solid/Safe Pick

Gould turns 40 in December but remains an effetive kicker in both the NFL and for fantasy purposes. Even though he missed 4 games in 2020 with a groin injury, Gould booted 20-of-23 (87%) field goals and converted all but one of his 40 extra point attempts. He was 3-of-4 from 50-plus and should be a solid option again in Kyle Shanahan's attack.

Fantasy Outlook: Gould is still converting at a high rate and retains decent power from deep. The 49ers shoud contend for top-10 offensive numbers, so he's a solid fantasy option in 2022.

San Francisco - Solid/Safe Pick

San Francisco pushed up to 7th in rushing yards allowed (1,760). They gave up 4.0 yards per rush, with ball carriers scoring 17 touchdowns with 11 runs over 20 yards.

The 49ers dipped to sixth in passing yards allowed (3,510). Quarterbacks gained 7.1 yards per pass attempt with 25 touchdowns, nine interceptions, and 54 completions of 20 yards or more. Their defense finished with 48 sacks.

DE Nick Bosa is a beast in the pass rush (15.5 sacks) while setting a career-high in tackles (52). Unfortunately, his run defense fell below expectations after playing well in this area over his first 18 games in the NFL. DT Arik Armstead added more pressure on the quarterback last year, but he also came up short defending the run. DT Javon Kinlaw missed 13 games last season with a torn ACL. The 49ers added him in the first round in 2020. San Francisco hopes incoming rookie DE Drake Jackson can upgrade the pass rush on the outside after taking in the second round of this year's draft.

Other than LB Fred Warner, the second level of the 49ers' defense has multiple questions that need to be answered. Ultimately, San Fran won't get many sacks from their linebackers, but they need to slow down the run game and handle their responsibilities in pass coverage.

S Jimmie Ward continues to tackle well while improving San Francisco's defense in run support. He tends to minimize the damage in scoring in coverage with an occasional blown assignment in the passing game. CB Charvarius Ward helps in coverage, but the 49ers don't have an edge at their other two positions in the secondary.

San Francisco's defensive line sets the tone for their success. If they can stop the run and get to the quarterback, the rest of the defense can cover for some deficiencies. Therefore, they are a top 10 fantasy defense with more upside if a couple of players improve at linebacker and the secondary.