San Francisco 49ers

2023 San Francisco 49ers Outlook

Coaching Staff

Kyle Shanahan enters his seventh season as the head coach of the 49ers. He has three winning seasons on his resume, with his best run coming in 2019 (13-3 with Super Bowl berth). After back-to-back winning years, his career record now stands at 52-46, with success in the postseason (6-3). He has 11 years of experience as an offensive coordinator while being in the NFL for 19 seasons.

San Francisco will roll with no one named as their offensive coordinator for the second consecutive year. Instead, Chris Foerster is in charge of the offensive line with the run game coordinator title. Klint Kubiak will handle the passing game duties.

The 49ers climbed to 6th in points scored (450), 23 more than in 2021. They had a higher finish (5th) in yards gained.

DeMeco Ryans returns to run their defense for a third season. He spent the previous three seasons working as a linebacker coach for San Francisco. Ryans played 10 seasons in the NFL at linebacker before moving to the 49ers coaching staff in 2017.

San Francisco had the best defense in the NFL last season. They allowed 277 points, an improvement of 88 points from 2021. Their defense ranks in the top five in yards allowed over the past four years.

Free Agency

The 49ers bolstered their defensive line by adding DT Javon Hargrave. He signed a $84 million contract for four seasons. On the downside, San Fran lost five defensive players to free agency – DE Charles Omenihu (KC), S Jimmy Ward (HOU), DE Samson Ebukam (IND), CB Emmanuel Moseley (DET), and LB Azeez Al-Shaair (TEN).

They parted ways with two players (T Mike McGlinchey and QB Jimmy Garoppolo) on the offensive side of the ball.

Draft

Despite not having a draft pick in the first two rounds of the 2023 NFL Draft, San Francisco took home nine players in this year's draft, including K Jake Moody in the third round.

On defense, the 49ers selected S Ji'Ayir Brown (3rd), CB Darrell Luter (5th), DE Robert Beal (5th), LB Dee Winters (6th), and LB Jalen Graham (7th).

Brown has more quickness than speed (4.65 40-yard dash), inviting risk in coverage when asked to cover elite receivers over the long field. He makes up for some of his shortfalls with his vision and anticipation. Brown wants to be a playmaker, and he plays hard on every down. At safety, the 49ers expect him to handle his responsibilities in run support.

Luter has a bump-and-chase feel in coverage due to his questionable quickness over the short areas of the field. His best value should come in deep coverage, but he will have risk in run support due to poor tackling techniques.

Beal worked off the bench during his time at Georgia. He looks the part of a pass rusher, but he needs to develop his moves and add more fire to his attack. Beal brings power and width to his coverage area while needing more experience and development time to make an impact in the NFL.

Winters can help a run defense if he has a clear path to the ball carrier. He won't win many battles if tangling with offensive linemen, and his attack works best when moving toward the line of scrimmage. His lack of size (5'11" and 225 lbs.) limits his ceiling, especially with no edge in speed (4.49 40-yard dash).

Graham is a second linebacker with below-par speed (4.64 40-yard dash) for his size (6'2" and 220 lbs.). On the positive side, his frame has room for growth while bringing fire and fight to the table. He understands and sees play development, giving him quick reads on his attack. Graham has risk in coverage vs. backs and tight ends.

The 49ers invested in a pair of tight ends – Cameron Latu (3rd) and Brayden Willis (7th) while also adding WR Ronnie Bell in the seventh round.

Latu only true asset coming into the NFL is his ability to test a defense downfield at the tight end position. His blocking isn't good enough to earn every down snaps, and he must improve his route running and hands to earn more targets.

Willis shows winning hands, but his foundation skill set won't create many windows to catch the ball in tight coverage. His blocking doesn't stand out, pointing to him being more of a zone-buster or late dump-off option in the passing game.

Bell should improve in 2023 after returning from an ACL tear last year. His hands grade well with a feel for the ball. He'll help the run game with his blocking, but Bell doesn't gain an edge with his rhythm as a route runner. He is more of a do-your-job player than an upside talent.

Offensive Line

The 49ers finished 7th in rushing yards (2,360) with 19 touchdowns and 19 runs of 20 yards or more. They averaged 4.7 yards per carry with 29.6 attempts per game.

San Fran dipped to 13th in the NFL in passing yards (4,049) with 30 touchdowns and nine interceptions. The 49ers had 56 completions over 20 yards helping them gain 7.9 yards per pass attempt. Their offensive line allowed 31 sacks.

LT Trent Williams continues to dominate as a run blocker while also being an edge in pass protection. He has been sensational in his three seasons with San Francisco, with an 11-year history of delivering impact results.

LG Aaron Banks made 19 starts in his sophomore season in the NFL after getting drafted in the second round in 2021. Unfortunately, his run blocking has yet to become an asset, and pass rushers can give him fits in some matchups, highlighted by his struggles vs. the Saints and Eagles.

C Jake Brendel led the 49ers in snaps last season after earning his first chance at a starting job. His value in the run game remains below par while playing well in pass protection in most matchups. He came into the NFL as an undrafted free agent in 2016 with the Cowboys.

RG Spencer Burford had 19 starts (including the postseason) in his rookie season after getting drafted in the fourth round in 2022. He allowed some sacks, but Burford pass-blocked well in more than half of his starts. His run blocking needs to be much better if he wants to remain a long-term starter in the NFL.

RT Colton McKivitz played well in his limited snaps last year while seeing time at left and right tackle. The 49ers only had him on the field for 71 plays due to an early October knee issue (MCL sprain).

San Francisco has one stud on their offensive line, which comes at the most important position (left tackle). They have a couple of developing options, but the group overall ranks at league average at best. On the positive side, the 49ers' scheme helps the success of their offensive line, and QB Brock Purdy allowed San Fran to throw the ball better than expected in 2022.

Offense

Coming into 2022, the 49ers projected as a high-volume running team, with Trey Lance expected to start at quarterback. They came out of last year with the best all-around back (Christian McCaffrey) in the league via a trade and a better passing quarterback (Brock Purdy) than expected. Last year San Francisco ran the ball 49.7% of the time. Their passing offense has potential studs – Deebo Samuel, Brandon Aiyuk, and George Kittle if the 49ers' coaching staff decides to open up their passing game in 2023.

QB Brock Purdy - Bye Week Fill-in

Over four seasons at Iowa, Purdy passed for 12,170 yards with 81 touchdowns and 33 interceptions over 48 starts. He added 365 rushes for 1,177 yards and 19 touchdowns. The 49ers drafted him in the seventh round in 2022.

Injuries at quarterback last season gave Purdy their starting job in Week 13. Over his eight games, he went 8-0 with 1,854 passing yards, 18 touchdowns, and three interceptions. Purdy completed 66.8% of his passes with elite yards per pass attempt (8.4). His impact showing came in the first game in the postseason (348 yards and four scores). When him behind center, San Fran averaged 27.5 passes.

His season ended in the Super Bowl due to an ACL injury in his right elbow that required surgery in mid-February. Baseball players need 18 months to recover fully from these types of injuries. The 49ers believe he has a shot to be ready for Week 1.

Fantasy Outlook: His success in 2022 (172.2 fantasy points in four-point passing touchdown league) projected over 17 games ranked Purdy as a top-10 quarterback. I expect Lance to start in Week 1, giving him a window to stiff-arm Purdy for the 49ers' starting quarterback job. More information over the summer will add clarity to San Francisco's dilemma. Both options are 20th-round fliers in 12-team leagues.

Other Options: Sam Darnold, Brandon Allen

QB Trey Lance - Bye Week Fill-in

Trey Lance, SF

With the third overall pick in the 2021 NFL Draft, the 49ers invested in Lance. His natural comparison would be Lamar Jackson by stats, but Lance can't match his top-end speed or arm strength. He plays with his eyes up when breaking the pocket while featuring an explosive gear when turning a run up field. My comp is closer to Deshaun Watson in overall look.

Lance needs more experience reading defenses and will be tested as a passer at the next level. His challenge will come in defeating coverage in the deep passing game, as his reads will invite runs before a wide receiver breaks free over the long field.

Lance came to the NFL with one starting season on his resume in college. In his sophomore year in 2019, he passed for 2,786 yards and 28 touchdowns while not throwing an interception. In addition, Lance was a beast on the ground (169/1,100/14), setting up an intriguing NFL career. In 2020, North Dakota State canceled the football season after one game, leading to him entering the draft. His style of play fits well in the 49ers' offense. They want to control the line of scrimmage with a dominant run game while offering an exciting combination of receivers at wide receiver and tight end.

In six games of action in his rookie season, he gained 771 combined yards with six touchdowns and two interceptions. Lance saw 2022 end after 82 snaps over two games due to a broken right ankle. He struggled in his only complete game (164/0 with 13 rushes for 54 yards).

Fantasy Outlook: UPDATE: Traded to Dallas to backup Dak Prescott and develop as a QB.

The spring reports have been positive, pointing to Lance fighting for the 49ers' starting quarterback job. Brock Purdy is trending toward being ready for Week 1. San Francisco has a challenging decision in 2023, but Lance has to prove he can win games in the NFL before regaining the starting job.

RB Christian McCaffrey - Stud (low risk)

McCaffrey led fantasy leagues in running back scoring in PPR leagues in 2018 (387.0) and 2019 (471.2). In 2019, he finished with 403 touches while only being the third player in NFL history to gain over 1,000 yards rushing (1,387) and receiving (1,005). McCaffrey gained over 100 yards rushing in six of his first nine games but none over the final seven weeks. Carolina featured him more in the passing games (68/609/1) over his downturn in rushing yards, highlighted by three outings (11/121, 11/82, and 15/119). McCaffrey had 10 catches or more in five games.

He averaged 28.7 touches per game (30.13 FPPG) in 2020 while missing 13 weeks with ankle, thigh, and shoulder injuries. In 2021, McCaffrey played well over his seven starts (785 combined yards with two touchdowns and 37 catches). His regression in scoring led to 18.21 FPPG with a step down in touches (19.4 per week) due to his injuries (hamstring and ankle).

After missing 24 games in 2020 and 2021, McCaffrey played the entire season last year, leading to 1,880 combined yards with 13 touchdowns and 85 catches. In his 13 full games with the 49ers, he averaged 22.34 FPPG while averaging 19.5 touches. His best two showings in fantasy points came in Week 8 (40.60) and Week 17 (31.30).

Fantasy Outlook: With the risk factor a little further in the background and another stellar season on his resume, McCaffrey has a bright shade of green next to his name on the draft sheet. San Francisco features their running back position in their offense, and they have the best option in the league in the starting lineup. McCaffrey is a top-three player drafted in 2023. His floor, with 17 games played, should be 350 touches for 1,900 yards with 17 touchdowns and 90 catches.

RB Elijah Mitchell - Fantasy Handcuff

Over his four seasons at Louisiana, Mitchell had success on the ground (527/3,267/41 – 6.2 yards per rush) with some chances in the passing game (49/597/5). He brings plus speed and explosiveness to the 49ers' offense.

For those fantasy drafters preaching to Trey Sermon or Raheem Mostert in the 49ers' backfield in 2021, Mitchell emerged as their Week 1 starter and an excellent waiver wire pick. When on the field for his 11 matchups during the regular season, he delivered five games with over 100 yards rushing (19/104/1, 18/107/1, 18/137/1, 27/133/1, and 21/119) and a limited role in the passing game (19/137/1). San Francisco gave him at least 18 touches in 11 of his 14 starts (including the playoffs). Unfortunately, he missed six games with rib, finger, concussion, and knee issues.

Last year, Mitchell missed 12 games with knee and groin injuries. The 49ers gave him 67 touches over his six matchups with Christian McCaffrey on the field, leading to 333 combined yards with three touchdowns and five catches.

Fantasy Outlook: San Francisco would love Mitchell to stay healthy, and they would reward him with 10 to 12 touches per game. Last year, he gained 6.2 yards per rush despite only one of his 45 carries gaining more than 20 yards. Mitchell ranked 44th at running back in early July in the high-stakes market. High upside handcuff, but he can't pay off standing on the sidelines.

RB Tyrion Davis-Price - Low Potential

The 49ers added Davis-Price in the third round of the 2022 NFL Draft. Over his three seasons at LSU, he gained 1,930 combined yards with 15 touchdowns and 28 catches on 407 touches. His best chance in the run game came in 2021 (211/1,004/6).

Davis-Price runs with power and wiggle, but his lack of experience held him back at LSU. He brings vision with the fire to quickly attack the line of scrimmage after the snap. However, Davis-Price must learn more patience to get into a better rhythm with his offensive line. His value in the passing game looks limited early in his career, and fumbles may creep into his stat line.

San Francisco gave him 34 carries for 99 yards in his rookie season.

Fantasy Outlook: Tha addition of Christian McCaffrey pushed Davis-Price further down the depth chart in 2023. He only offers early down insurance at this point in his career while needing to prove his worth on the field.

Other Options: Jordan Mason, Ronald Awatt, Khalan Laborn

WR Brandon Aiyuk - Solid/Safe Pick

After playing well in his rookie season (60/748/5) over 12 games, Aiyuk fell short of expectations in 2021 while being outshined by Deebo Samuel by a wide margin. His catch rate (66.7) improved from 2020 (62.5), along with his yards per catch (14.8 – 12.5 in 2020), but the 49ers gave him only 4.9 targets per game. He finished with 56 catches for 843 yards and five scores, ranking him 35th in wide receiver scoring (171.50) in PPR formats.

His season started with emptiness over the first seven games (13/141/1 on 23 targets), making him unplayable in all fantasy formats. The transition to a part-time runner for Samuel led to him picking in the pace in the passing attack over his final 10 matchups (43/685/4 on 61 targets), highlighted by four games (6/89/1, 7/85/1, 6/62/1, and 6/107).

In 2022, Aiyuk emerged as the 49ers' top receiving option, leading to career highs in catches (78), receiving yards (1,015), touchdowns (8), and targets (114). His two impact games came in Week 6 (8/83/2) and Week 17 (9/117/1). He had a floor of 10.00 fantasy points in 10 other matchups.

Fantasy Outlook: Aiyuk finished 16th in wide receiver scoring (228.80) in PPR formats. His success commands follow through this year, and he caught 67.7% of his targets over the past two seasons. In the early draft season, he ranked 31st at wide receiver in PPR leagues. I see a repeat season, making him a value in 2023 based on his current price point.

WR Deebo Samuel - Solid/Safe Pick

Samuel emerged as a beast in his third season in the NFL in 2021. He busted out of the gate with four impact games (9/189/1, 8/157/2, 7/100/1, and 6/171) over the first seven weeks (44/819/4). The 49ers transitioned him into a rotational role in the run game in Week 10, leading to sensational success on the ground (80/480/8) over his final 11 starts (including the postseason). The downside of his change in workload was fewer chances in the passing game (54 targets – 4.9 per game). As a result, Samuel only had two showings of value (5/97/1 and 9/159) after Week 9.

He finished the year third in wide receiver scoring (341.20) with eight games in the regular season with 20.00 or more fantasy points in PPR formats. Samuel averaged an impressive 18.2 yards per catch and 6.2 yards per rush. However, his catch rate (63.6) was hurt by 11 drops. He gained more than 20 yards on 23 of his 77 catches, with nine of those plays reaching the 40-yard mark.

Last year, Samuel missed four games with knee and ankle issues. The 49ers continued to give him chances in the run game (42/232/3), but he lost his big play ability in the passing game (11.3 yards per catch – only one catch gained 40 yards or more). His receiving production (56/632/2) projected over 17 weeks comes to 73 catches for 826 yards and three scores. Samuel gained more than 100 yards in two contests (6/115/1 and 6/133/1).

Fantasy Outlook: The 49ers' offensive line isn't what it was two years ago, leading to a small passing window and less room to run for Samuel. San Francisco will get him at least four catches a game and two to three rushes per week. He ranked 18th at wide receiver in early July. I'll set his bar at 70 catches for 1,050 yards and about seven touchdowns.

WR Jauan Jennings - Low Potential

Jennings had a minimal opportunity over five seasons in college (146/2,153/19 on 213 targets). His best success came in 2019 (59 catches for 969 yards and eight touchdowns on 92 targets).

In his first season with snaps for the 49ers, Jennings created some mismatches due to his size (6'3" and 210 lbs.), leading to five of his 24 catches resulting in scores. The 49ers gave him only 13 targets over his first 11 games (8/70/2). He flashed in Week 18 (6/94/2) while earning five targets per game over the final five matchups (16/212/3).

Last year, Jennings upped his output to 35 catches for 416 yards and one score on 56 targets. The injury to Deebo Samuel helped his bump in chances. He posted only one game (6/49/1) of value.

Fantasy Outlook: Jennings can shine at times, but he projects as the 49ers' five receiver options behind Christian McCaffrey, Deebo Samuel, Brandon Aiyuk, and George Kittle. Jennings won't be drafted in any 12-team formats.

WR Danny Gray - Dynasty Only

The 49ers added Gray with their third-round selection in the 2022 NFL Draft. He brings speed (4.33 40-yard dash) with two years of experience at SMU (33/448/4 and 49/803/9 on 121 combined targets). Gray will compete for a rotational WR4 role again this year. San Francisco gave him only seven targets in 2022 (one catch for 10 yards).

Fantasy Outlook: Ray-Ray McCloud, Chris Conley, Ronnie Bell

TE George Kittle - Stud (low risk)

The tight end opportunity for the 49ers declined for the second consecutive year. They set three-year lows in catches (68), receiving yards (937), and targets (99). On the positive side, their tight ends upped their yards per catch (13.8) and scoring (12 touchdowns).

FANTASY OUTLOOK: Kittle remains an elite fantasy option but his value would be better if Brock Purday won the starting job. Last season, Kittle ranked second among all tight ens in fantasy points per game. A good chunk of that production came in the second half of the season. View Kittle as a locked-in top-5 fantasy option.

Other Options: Cameron Latu, Charlie Woerner, Ross Dwelley

PK Jake Moody - Solid/Safe Pick

Over the past two seasons, Moody made 54 of his 60 field goals at Michigan. All of his 116 extra-point tries went through the uprights. His leg projects well from long range.

Fantasy Outlook: San Francisco scored 52 touchdowns last year while creating 32 field goal chances. Mooney won't be drafted in many formats until he is confirmed as their 49ers kicker. Possible top-12 kicker with more upside if San Fran gives him enough chance from 50 yards or more.

San Francisco - Stud (low risk)

San Francisco climbed to second in rushing yards allowed (1,321). They gave up 3.4 yards per rush, with ball carriers scoring 11 touchdowns while averaging 22.9 carries per game.

The 49ers fell to 21st in passing yards allowed (3,789). Quarterbacks gained 6.9 yards per pass attempt with 20 touchdowns and 20 interceptions. Their defense finished with 44 sacks.

DE Nick Bosa has 34 sacks over his last 33 starts while adding 103 tackles and six forced fumbles. His run defense continues to be an edge. DE Drake Jackson only had rotational snaps in his rookie season after getting drafted in the second round in 2022. His pass rush shows potential while needing to improve his run defense. DT Javon Hargrave has a pocket full of cash and an improving resume. Over the last two years for the Eagles, he delivered 123 tackles and 18.5 sacks. His run defense has been below expectation in his time in Philadelphia. Javon Kinlaw and Arik Armstead have first-round pedigrees, but they missed multiple games last year.

LB Fred Warner posted more than 100 tackles in all five seasons with the 49ers. His run defense was the best of his career, but he allowed some big plays in coverage while chipping in the pass rush. LB Dre Greenlaw comes over his best year (127 tackles, one interception, and six defended passes). His value in run support has been an asset in back-to-back seasons. The other starting linebacking job is up for grabs.

CB Charvarius Ward is a sure tackler with strength in coverage. His value vs. the run was the best of his career. CB Deommodore Lenoir moved into the starting lineup in his second year with the 49ers. He made 79 tackles, but he allowed a high catch rate and many big plays. His pass coverage tightened up in the red zone. S Tashaun Gibson has 32 interceptions over 157 games, with five coming in his first season with San Fran. He finished as an elite player in run support while giving up some big plays. S Talanoa Hufanga was a neutral player in his first season with starting snaps. He gave up too many touchdowns despite allowing short yards per catch.

FANTASY OUTLOOK: The defensive line sets the tone for the 49ers, highlighted by the play of Nick Bosa and Javon Hargrave. They also have a top player at the second and third levels of their defense. I expect a bump in sacks while holding offenses to low points. The 49ers are the top-ranked defense in the fantasy market in early July.