New Orleans Saints

The 2023 Saints were top-10 in points scored and allowed but came up just short of the NFC playoffs at 9-8. In his third season at the helm, Dennis Allen will need to get his team over the hump by getting the Saints back into the postseason for the first time since 2020.

Derek Carr's first season in New Orleans juxtaposed nicely with his previous campaigns in Oakland and Las Vegas. Carr stays healthy and posts consistent, unassuming numbers. He doesn't have enough upside to warrant a starting fantasy spot, but Carr can be a solid if unspectacular QB2 to target in Superflex leagues.

After missing the first three games of the season due to a suspension, Alvin Kamara proved to be an excellent mid-round value. Kamara ranked 5th in PPR points per game. Entering his age 29 season, Kamara's efficiency numbers have started to slide. However, he remains a high-volume receiver with little competition for touches. That keeps him on the RB1 radar as a solid fantasy target in the fourth or fifth round.

Jamaal Williams was the team's least efficient back last season. One year after leading the NFL in touchdowns, Williams made no impact even with Kamara missing four games. Second-year runner Kendre Miller looked good in the season finale and is the clear handcuff for Kamara drafters.

Chris Olave ranked 12th in targets (138) and target share (25.6%). With the departure of Michael Thomas and his 12% target share, Olave is in prime position to enter the top 10 in his third season. 100 receptions and 1,300 yards are reasonable expectations for Olave in 2024.

Like Olave, Rashid Shaheed continues to improve and will stand to benefit from Thomas's departure. Shaheed's 13.1 ADOT ranked fourth among all wideouts but he would stand to benefit from better consistency. Shaheed had six games with 15-plus fantasy points and nine outings with single-digit production.

New Orleans signed Cedrick Wilson as depth and used fifth-rounder on Pitt WR Bub Means. They will compete with A.T. Perry for WR3 duties.

Juwan Johnson is a middling fantasy TE2 who is touchdown-dependant. He only topped 50 receiving yards once last season and regularly ceded valuable red-zone snaps to Taysom Hil. Hill also usurped fantasy production from Kamara and Carr but his role makes the veteran jack-of-all-trades an intriguing late-round pick in leagues where he is still classified as a tight end.

The Saints will contend for the NFC playoffs but are unlikely to be serious threats to win it all. Their fantasy options are on a similar trajectory. Chris Olave and Alvin Kamara can deliver the goods but the rest of the lineup is more uncertain.

QB Derek Carr - Bye Week Fill-in

Carr's first season in New Orleans was right in line with his career totals. The 33-year-old veteran produced weekly QB1 numbers in only six of his 17 starts. Conversely, Carr also failed to pass for even 200 yards in six games. His rushing production and weekly fantasy value have now declined in four consecutive seasons. Additionally, Carr loses valuable red-zone reps to Taysom Hill, further limiting his upside. The ceiling is limited and Carr's erratic weekly production makes him an unreliable fantasy option. He is little more than a middling QB2 in Superflex leagues. ADVICE: Lesser QB2 with limited upside

QB Taysom Hill - Sleeper (undervalued)

ADVICE: In leagues where Hill is classified as a quarterback he has middling value. He will vulture some short-yardage scores via the run and pass but won't see enough attempts to be a viable option. However, in leagues where Hill can be started as a tight end, he has major sleeper appeal. View him as merely a waiver wire hold in leagues where he is designated as a QB, but as potential a difference maker as a Swiss Army weapon where he can be slotted in as a TE or FLEX.

RB Alvin Kamara - Solid/Safe Pick

Despite missing four games, Alvin Kamara was one of the top values last season. He ranked second with 86 targets, hauling in multiple receptions in every game. Kamara scored double-digit fantasy points in his first 11 contests. The receiving volume is a plus, but Kamara is on a four-year decline in missed tackles forced and yards created after contact. There's a chance his running efficiency could fall off a cliff. The Saints didn't address running back, so Kamara's role appears safe. Considering he posted RB5 points per game numbers, that's good news. Hopefully, he's got one more good season in him. ADVICE: Excellent Value as Receiver but a Declining Runner on RB1/2 borderline

RB Kendre Miller - Fantasy Handcuff

Injuries sabotaged Miller's rookie season, limiting him to just eight games. However, he looked solid with one spot start in the season finale, turning 13 carries into 73 yards (5.6 yards per carry) and his lone touchdown. Miller also hauled in 10 of his 11 targets, which puts him in a position to be the Saints' primary running back if Alvin Kamara misses time. He's a late-round handcuff to target for fantasy managers who have deeper rosters. ADVICE: May not have a significant weekly role but one of the better handcuff backs to target late

RB Jamaal Williams - Deep-league Only

ADVICE: It was quite a fall for Williams, who went from leading the NFL in touchdowns to just one controversial score in New Orleans. Kendre Miller is projected to be the Saints' change-of-pace back, so Williams is barely on the fantasy radar.

WR Chris Olave - Stud (low risk)

Olave's usage metrics were outstanding, commanding a 25% target share and 40% air yards share, and totaling over 1,800 air yards. Despite Olave's talent indicating he should be a fantasy WR1, he is projected to be a WR2 in 2024 with Derek Carr returning as quarterback. However, the pair showed signs of improvement in the latter part of the season post-bye week. Olave ranked second in catchable target rate (89%) with a 12.0 average depth of target (ADOT). ADVICE: Olave's talent alone positions him as a low-end fantasy WR2. If his chemistry with Carr continues into the next season, Olave has the potential to elevate to a WR1.

WR Rashid Shaheed - Sleeper (undervalued)

Shaheed posted top 20 numbers in points per target (2.07), yards per target (9.6), and yards per catch (15.6) despite seeing just a 13.9% target share in New Orleans. With Michael Thomas (64 targets, 11.9% share) gone, Shaheed will now be counted on to play a larger weekly role in the Saints' offense. In games where he received more than five targets, Shaheed averaged 13.1 fantasy points per game- solid WR3 numbers. With an expanding role, Shaheed offers weekly WR3 value and will produce a handful of top-10 fantasy outings. An excellent mid-to-late round value target. ADVICE: Shaheed is an ascending fantasy option who could approach triple-digit targets

WR A.T. Perry - Dynasty Only

ADVICE: Perry averaged a robust 20.5 yards per catch as a rookie but only had 18 targets. After the signing of Cedrick Wilson, Perry's path to a bigger role is difficult to project. He's got some deep sleeper appeal if he emerges as the Saints' WR3 this summer.

WR Cedrick Wilson - Low Potential

Wilson will compete with A.T. Perry for WR3 duties in New Orleans. Wilson had one decent showing in 2021 but has failed to make much impact in his other four seasons. Considering the lack of volume in the Saints' passing attack, there is little reason to be optimistic that Wilson will suddenly develop into any kind of reliable fantasy option, even with Michael Thomas's targets up for grabs.

TE Juwan Johnson - Bye Week Fill-in

In the final five weeks of the regular season, Juwan Johnson was the overall TE5, catching 19-of-27 targets for 226 yards and three scores. That raised optimism that Johnson could be a solid TE2 in 2024. A calf injury cost Johnson four games but became a bigger part of the Saints' attack as the season went on. New Orleans did not re-sign Jimmy Graham or Michael Thomas, so Johnson looks like a good bet to see an increase on his 13.9% target share. He's a solid late-round TE2/streaming option to target late on draft day. ADVICE: TE2/streaming option who will post a handful of top-10 weeks

PK Blake Grupe - Deep-league Only

Grupe debuted with a solid showing, ranking 10th in fantasy points. The main culprit was a New Orleans offense that struggled in the red zone, resulting in a healthy 37 field goal attempts. Grupe only made 30 of those kicks but he did convert all 40 of his extra points. While there won't be any Grupe's Grupes out there in fantasy land, he's a decent enough kicking option to warrant some attention on draft day, or as a weekly streaming option.

New Orleans - Bye Week Fill-in

New Orleans was very average, allowing 221.6 passing yards per game and 119.9 on the ground. Overall, the Saints were the 17th-ranked fantasy defense but we can't count on another 18 interceptions. Consider the Saints a middling fantasy option but with a better-than-average chance of being one of the better kick return units with the new relaxed rules.