Dallas Cowboys

With high-stakes fantasy football legend Shawn Childs anchoring Sports Illustrated's fantasy coverage, we decided to give our take on Shawn's Team Outlooks. While we won't always agree, Shawn's pedigree speaks for itself. Shawn has been a high-stakes Fantasy Football legend since 2004 when he had success in his first season (three titles and $25,000 in winnings). Childs has competed and won six-figures in all different formats – auctions, draft championships, main events, and high-dollar leagues. We dare you to find an expert who knows the NFL player pool better than Shawn Childs -- it can't be done!

Looking back at 2021, the Dallas Cowboys had the best offense in football, but none of their skill players had an elite season. WR Amari Cooper (68/865/8) fell short of expectations, and WR Michael Gallup (35/445/2) missed eight games. WR Cee Dee Lamb (79/1,102/6) improved slightly, but he failed to post a difference-maker year (19th ranked wideout in PPR formats) despite his preseason hype. RB Ezekiel Elliott gained over 55 rushing yards only once over his final 11 starts, leading to an RB2 feel in fantasy scoring (253.10). RB Tony Pollard helped off the bench while looking more explosive at running back. The only overachiever was TE Dalton Schultz (78/808/4). QB Dak Prescott had boom or bust stats in half of his games, with regression in his value as a runner (48/146/1).

Dallas brings back most of the same nucleus on offense except for losing WR Amari Cooper and WR Cedrick Wilson. So the coin toss for fantasy drafters is whether RB Ezekiel Elliott is fading off into the sunset, or does he dig down for one more elite impact year? And will the additions of WR James Washington and WR Jalen Tolbert help the Cowboys soar to new heights in their quest for their first Super Bowl title since 1995?

I know one thing for sure; the Cowboys locked up two impact defenders (LB Micah Parsons and CB Trevor Diggs) over the past two NFL drafts.

Offense

The Cowboys were one of two teams in the NFL to gain over 7,000 yards last year. They want to have a blend of run and pass while leaning on their ball-control offense when playing from the lead. With a rebound in play on defense, Dallas may rely more on rushing the ball in 2022.

QB Dak Prescott - Solid/Safe Pick

In 2019 and 2021, Prescott attempted 596 passes in both seasons over 16 games. He improved by 22 completions last year but regressed by 453 passing yards. Prescott finished with the best completion rate (68.8) of his career with a new high in passing touchdowns (37). He ended the year with a step back in running value (48/146/1) after being much more productive in this area over his first 64 games (241/1,221/21).

When at his best, Prescott had a floor of three touchdowns in nine starts (416/3, 244/3, 223/4, 308/3, 455/3, 301/3, 351/4, 246/3, and 295/5). He delivered 1,864 passing yards and eight touchdowns in his other seven matchups.

Fantasy outlook: Dallas would like to play better defense and not be forced to throw the ball a minimum of 40 times a game. Based on this, Prescott should see a slight drop in passing chances this year. However, he should be more active running the ball at the goal line while being another season removed from his significant ankle injury. With 17 games played, Prescott should deliver 4,800 combined yards with about 34 touchdowns. He ranks 7th at quarterback in the early draft season of the Fantasy Football World Championship.

Other Options: Cooper Rush, Will Grier, Ben DiNucci

RB Ezekiel Elliott - Solid/Safe Pick

When reviewing Elliott's final stats in 2021, he continued to have a high floor in catches (47) and touchdowns (12). On the downside, he gained short yards per catch for the second straight season (6.5 and 6.1). Elliott had 580 touches over the past two seasons, but only seven of those plays resulted in 20 yards or more. From Week 8 to Week 17, over 10 starts, he averaged only 3.4 yards per carry and 39.4 rushing yards per game. Dallas gave him 14.7 touches per week over this span. His best results running the ball came over three home starts early in the year (17/95/2, 20/143/1, and 21/110/1). Over his last seven games, the Cowboys gave him 23 targets (including the playoffs), leading to 10 catches for 59 yards and one score.

Fantasy outlook: The trick when evaluating his 2022 draft value is sifting through last year's actual performance and preseason fantasy hype. Elliott played through a partially torn PCL in 2021 while already having a "best shape of his life" by-line in May per Mike McCarthy (looks great while being clocked at 22 mph). In the early draft season in the FFWC, Elliott has an ADP of 43 as the 21st running back selected. I expect him to see fewer chances in the passing game with about 16 overall touches per start. I'll set his bar at 1,175 combined yards with eight to 10 touchdowns and 30 catches (about 200.00 fantasy points in PPR leagues). Elliott is young enough to surprise, and he does play in one of the better offenses in the league.

RB Tony Pollard - Quality Backup

Dallas gave Pollard the best opportunity (169 touches) of his career, but he did leave some stats on the table by missing two games with a December left foot injury (plantar fascia). Over his final three games (including the postseason), he struggled to run the ball (15/57) with seven catches for 77 yards. Pollard broke loose in Week 2 (140 combined yards with one score and three catches) while gaining over 100 combined yards in one other matchup (14/75 and four catches for 28 yards). From the Cowboys' second game to Week 15 (12 contests), he averaged 12.2 touches, leading to 905 yards with two touchdowns and 30 catches or 11.04 fantasy points in PPR formats.

Fantasy outlook: In early June in the FFWC, Pollard has an ADP of 94 as the 33rd running back selected. At the very least, he looks mispriced by about 10 backs when adding his final 2021 ranking (28th) and possible finish with an entire season of games. Pollard seems poised to gain over 1,400 combined yards with 50+ catches and a handful of scores if the Cowboys get him about 13 chances a game. For those playing the high-stakes market, don't let a guy with a Cocktail and a Dream steal your Ezekiel Elliott handcuff – protect your interest, or better yet, tee up the potential breakthrough difference-maker.

RB Rico Dowdle - Not Draft Worthy

After flashing upside in his freshman season (819 combined yards with seven touchdowns and 15 catches on 148 touches), Dowdle wandered his way through his through the next three years (295 rushes for 1,403 yards with 10 touchdowns plus 47 catches for 428 yards and two scores) at South Carolina.

He missed four games in 2016 with a battle with a hernia issue that required surgery, a broken leg in 2017, and a couple of games in 2019 with a knee issue.

Dowdle comes to the NFL with just below running back average speed (4.54 40-yard dash) with decent size (5"11" and 215 lbs.). He runs some patience while using his eyes and feel to pick the right spot to turn up the jets.

When in the open field, Dowdle shows the ability to make defenders miss either with fight or wiggle. His vision plays up while owning change of direction value. Dowdle's downside risk is carrying the ball loosely in the open field and his injury resume. The Cowboys signed him as an unrestricted free agent in 2020.

A broken hip led to him missing all of last year. He gained only 24 yards on seven carries in 2020.

Other Options: JaQuan Hardy, Malik Davis, Aaron Shampklin

WR CeeDee Lamb - Stud (low risk)

Despite the Cowboys losing Michael Gallup for half of the season and Amari Cooper underachieving, Lamb failed to rise to WR1 status in his second year with Dallas. He finished with 79 catches for 1,102 yards and six touchdowns on 120 targets (233.10 fantasy points in PPR leagues). His catch rate (65.8) came in slightly below 2020 (66.7) while improving his yards per catch (13.9). Lamb posted all three of his games with over 100 yards receiving (7/104/1, 9/149/2, and 6/112) over the Cowboys' first eight matchups. His only other impact game (6/94/2) came in Week 10. Dallas struggled to get him the ball over his final four games (19/183 on 16 targets). Lamb missed one game with a concussion issue.

Fantasy outlook: Lamb looks poised to become a 100-catch stub in 2022, with growth expected in scoring. His opportunity should grow by about 25%, leading to 1,300+ yards with a chance at double-digit scores. In the high-stakes market in early June, he is the 6th wide receiver drafted with an ADP of 17. His talent and ceiling suggest an edge as a WR2 for a wide receiver strong team or a worthy lead wideout. Lamb isn't a player I would want to finesse.

WR Michael Gallup - Gamble (high risk)

2021 didn't go well for Gallup. A calf injury in Week 1 led to seven missed games. Over the next eight matchups, he caught 31 passes for 409 yards and two touchdowns on 55 targets with only two weeks of value (5/106 and 5/36/1). A torn ACL in his left knee ended his season in early January, but he didn't have surgery until February 10th. Dallas thought enough of his game to sign him to a five-year, $62.5 million contract in mid-March.

Fantasy outlook: I don't expect Gallup to be at full strength until the middle of October at the earliest. Also, I'm never a fan of investing in players coming off significant injuries. His ADP (128) in the FFWC in early June ranks him as the 51st wide receiver. Gallup needs to score about 140.00 fantasy points in PPR formats to beat his draft value. I would be happy with a 50/700/5 season, which seems attainable with a minimum of 12 complete games played.

WR Jalen Tolbert - Super Sleeper (high risk/potential)

Dallas added Tolbert in the third round of the 2022 NFL Draft. He played well over his final two seasons (64/1,085/8 and 82/1,474/8) at South Alabama. Tolbert gained 17.6 yards per catch in his college career with a low catch rate (55.5). His release and route running project well, pointing to early success in his NFL career.

Fantasy outlook: Based on style of play, Tolbert should work as the cover for Michael Gallup early in the year. He'll challenge a defense in the deep passing game while also having the foundation skill set to shine over the short areas of the field. Tolbert comes off the board as the 76th wide receiver in the FFWC with an ADP of 199. I'm intrigued by his potential, and the coach-speak over the summer should drive his fantasy value. Possible 60 catches for 800 yards and some value in scoring.

WR James Washington - Deep-league Only

Over four seasons with the Steelers, Washington had a few intriguing games (6/90/1, 3/98/1, 4/111/1, 4/68/1, and 2/80/1), but he rarely had more than five targets. His best output came in 2019 (44/735/3 on 80 targets) while scoring a career-high five touchdowns the following year.

Coming into the NFL, Washington had three stellar seasons at Oklahoma State (53/1,08710, 71/1,380/10, and 74/1,549/13). Pittsburgh drafted him in the second round in 2018.

Fantasy outlook: Washington should have every opportunity to win the WR3 job for the Cowboys this year. He has the wheels and resume to test a defense deep. His ADP (234) in the FFWC puts him in the free-agent pool in many leagues. However, Washington is only a flier until he wins more playing time and targets. Washington is already hurt and could miss some time in the regular season, which makes it hard to want to draft him.

Other Options: Noah Brown, Simi Fehoko, T.J. Vasher, Brandon Smith

TE Dalton Schultz - Stud (low risk)

Out of the gate in 2021, Schultz produced five playable games (6/45, 6/80/2, 6/58/1, 6/79, and 5/79) over the first six weeks. He finished the year as the third-highest scoring tight end (78/808/8 on 104 targets – 208.80 fantasy points in PPR leagues). Schultz had a floor of six catches in nine of his 18 games with better production at home (47/556/5 on 64 targets).

Fantasy outlook: The best part about Schultz is that defenses have more issues to worry about than shutting him down. Even with success last year, he ranks 7th in the early draft season in the FFWC with an ADP of 75. With a slight regression (75/750/5), Schultz should finish as a top-six tight end.

Other Options: Jake Ferguson, Sean McKeon, Jeremy Sprinkle

Dallas - Solid/Safe Pick

Dallas climbed to 16th in rushing yards allowed (1,918) with 13 touchdowns and 14 runs over 20 yards. They allowed 4.5 yards per rush.

Their pass defense slid to 20th in yards allowed (4,049) with 24 touchdowns and 26 interceptions. Dallas allowed 7.1 yards per pass attempt with 41 sacks.

CB Trevor Diggs had an impressive 11 interceptions and 21 defended passes last season, but his gamble style led to receivers gaining over 1,000 yards with five scores. Diggs needs to find a balance when to jump routes or stay home in coverage. At the very least, he is one of the best defensive playmakers in the league.

LB Micah Parsons had the "it factor" in his rookie season, leading to 84 tackles and 13 sacks. He still needs work against the run, but his future is bright.

The Cowboys' defensive line needs to improve defending the run and increase the pass rush. Dallas would love for LB Leighton Vander Esch to regain his rookie form (140 tackles in 2018). Their starting safeties support the run, but I sense some risk in coverage if the Cowboys' secondary doesn't get help with a strong pass rush.

The combination of Diggs and Parsons creates scoring chances, making the Cowboys' defense attractive in the fantasy market. Dallas projects as a top-five defense, with work still needed in the real football world.