Atlanta Falcons

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Falcons

The Atlanta Falcons had a competitive run with Matt Ryan at quarterback for 14 seasons. After four losing years, while being a nine-iron away from the cellar in the NFL, the Falcons start their rebuild in 2022. Marcus Mariota gets his second chance to run an offense after holding a clipboard over the previous three seasons. If he struggles, Desmond Ridder will be the next man up behind center. TE Kyle Pitts has stud upside, while Atlanta brought in two new wideouts (Drake London and Bryan Edwards) to climb the offensive mountain. At the same time, the running back position is in flux, with multiple players expected to compete for snaps. Tyler Allgeier is their top runner added in this year's draft class. The Falcons also have plenty of help to push up the defensive rankings.

Offense

Over the past decade, Atlanta consistently finished in the top-tier in the league in passing attempts. Their rushing attack hasn't been relative for multiple seasons. The Falcons' coaching staff returns in 2022, pointing to a more balanced attack while also being influenced by game score in many matchups.

QB Marcus Mariota - Sleeper (undervalued)

The Titans selected Mariota with the second overall pick in 2015. He went 27-28 over the next four seasons, with one playoff appearance (2017). Mariota gained 3,875 combined yards in his best season (2016), with 28 touchdowns and nine interceptions. His yards per pass attempt (7.5) graded with Tennessee while also offering help as a runner (242/1,399/11). Over the last two years, he had a backup role for the Raiders (18-for-30 for 405 combined yards with three touchdowns and one interception.

Fantasy outlook: In the Fantasy Football World Championship. Mariota is the 30th-ranked quarterback as fantasy drafters wait to see if he earns the starting gig. His ability to help in the run game helps his floor, and Mariota has two developing receiving options (Drake London and Kyle Pitts). For now, only a matchup option if the Falcons' offense shows a pulse early in the season. I'll keep an open mind as Mariota has the talent to be much better in his second dance in the NFL.

QB Desmond Ridder - Dynasty Only

Ridder was a four-year starter in college who relied on his legs to make many plays (501/2,180/28). Last year he helped Cincinnati to an undefeated regular season (13-0) before bowing out to Alabama in the BCS Championship Series. He had growth in the passing game (3,334 yards with 30 touchdowns and eight interceptions) while finishing with a step back in rushing production (110/355/6 – 3.2 yards per carry). Over his final three seasons, Ridder went 33-4, with three of his losses coming against Ohio State, Georgia, and Alabama.

His movements in the pocket and the run game have similarities to DeSean Watson, but Ridder doesn't have the arm strength or accuracy in the deep passing game. He wants to throw first while having the speed and running ability to make chunk plays if Ridder sees an opening at the line of scrimmage. When in rhythm, he'll make quick decisions over the short areas of the field. Cincinnati lined him up in the shotgun on most plays while using their back more at a safety outlet in the passing game rather than a play-action run threat. When asked to challenge a defense downfield, Ridder chose air over arm strength, which may be a problem in the NFL.

Fantasy outlook: Ridder can help the Falcons win, and his style of play falls in line with the addition of Marcus Mariota. His ability to run and throw the ball improves Atlanta's scoring ability in the red zone. He projects as their backup early in 2022, but Ridder could jump to starting status quickly if Mariota falters or losses pile up early in the year.

Other Options: Feleipe Franks

RB Qadree Ollison - Not Draft Worthy

Ollison is a power runner who can break tackles, but his open-field ability looks limited along with his vision. He has a smash factor with sneaky speed that takes multiple steps to get wound up. More reps would help his ability to see run blocking unfold along with a balance of patience and acceleration. I don't expect much in the passing game with some risk in pass protection.

He gained only 50 yards on the ground with four touchdowns on 22 rushes in his rookie season. Ollison only had one carry for three yards in 2020 while being inactive for 13 games. He saw his only action (21/105/1 with four catches for 12 yards) over the second half of last year.

Fantasy outlook: Ollison should compete for early-down touches this year while also having a chance of not making the team. In his best season in college, he gained 1,279 yards with 11 touchdowns and 11 catches.

Other Options: Caleb Huntley, Avery Williams

RB Cordarrelle Patterson - Quality Backup

From 2018 to 2020, the Patriots and Bears gave Patterson a chance to prove his worth in the run game. He gained 563 yards on 123 carries with two rushing touchdowns while also adding 53 catches for 462 yards and three touchdowns.

Atlanta handed him their lead running back job last season, leading to 1,166 combined yards with 11 touchdowns and 52 catches on 205 touches. Patterson finished ninth in running back scoring (234.70) in PPR formats despite his season-ending with four minimal games (4.30, 8.40, 7.20, and 2.20 fantasy points), with the only hint of an injury (ankle) coming in mid-November.

His edge came in the passing game (38/459/5 on 47 targets) over his first eight matchups, highlighted by his exceptional 12.1 yards per catch. Patterson gained only 3.8 yards on his 73 carries for 278 yards and two scores over this span. The Falcons gave him 52 touches from Week 12 to Week 14 (290 yards with three touchdowns and seven catches).

Despite his success, Patterson only had three games with 60% or more of Atlanta's running back snaps.

Fantasy outlook: In the high-stakes market in late June, Patterson is the 35th running back off the table with an ADP of 98, showing that most fantasy drafters don't believe in him repeating. Defenses seemed to catch up with him late in the season in the passing game. At best, he'll work as a change of pace back in the run game with a chance to see the bulk of pass-catching targets on passing downs.

RB Tyler Allgeier - Super Sleeper (high risk/potential)

Over his last two seasons at BYU, Allgeier gained 3,104 combined yards with 36 touchdowns and 42 catches on 468 touches. However, his explosiveness regressed in 2021 (5.8 yards per carry – 7.5 in 2020) after receiving a workhorse opportunity (276 rushes) in the run game. His value in the passing game improved over the previous two years (14/174 and 28/199).

Allgeier brings size (5'11" and 225 lbs.) to the table, but his game isn't built around power. He runs with vision while lacking fluidness in his runs and acceleration to make defenses pay for their makes at the first level. However, when given daylight in space, Allgeier will take what is given to him. He can succeed with volume of touches, and his value in the passing game should improve with more experience.

Fantasy outlook: Based on the Falcons' running back structure, Atlanta should give Allgeier a reasonable chance to run the ball on early downs. He has an upside of 200 rushes for 850 yards with short scores and some catches. On the flip side, the Falcons don't have a top-tier back standing in his way. As a result, his ADP (183) in the NFFC in June puts him in the flier zone.

RB Damien Williams - Deep-league Only

Williams missed the whole 2022 season with concerns about Covid-19. Last year he struggled to get on the field over the first seven games for the Bears, resulting in only 203 combined yards with two touchdowns and 11 catches on 48 targets. Unfortunately, a calf issue cost him three games and a chance to fill in for David Montgomery. When the season ended, Williams slipped to RB3 status in the Bears' offense with emptiness over his final five contests (64 yards with five catches on eight touches).

Fantasy outlook: He flashed over a couple of seasons for the Chiefs while never earning a full-time starting job. Williams is more of veteran insurance with some value in the passing game.

WR Frank Darby - Not Draft Worthy

Over four seasons at Arizona State, Darby caught 67 passes for 1,317 yards and 13 touchdowns on 115 targets. He averaged 19.7 yards per catch while catching 58.2 percent of his passes.

In his rookie season, Darby had one catch for 14 yards while missing some time with calf and shoulder issues.

Other Options: Auden Tate, Damiere Byrd, KhaDarel Hodge

WR Drake London - Solid/Safe Pick

After a minimal role over his first two seasons at USC (39/567/5 and 33/502/3), London developed into a high-volume receiver in his junior year (88/1,084/7) over eight games. He had a floor of nine catches in seven matchups (12/137, 13/170/2, 10/165, 9/130/1, 16/162/1, 15/171, and 9/81/2). Unfortunately, his season ended in late October due to a broken right ankle.

The connection between London and USC's starting quarterbacks last year was impressive. He caught the ball behind the line of scrimmage, in the flat, crossing routes, back shoulder fades, and over the top, showcasing a wide range of plays where his game created an edge. He has the look of a tight end playing wide receiver. London wins with size while also being more agile than expected with his feet. He can break some tackles and win many jump balls.

WR Bryan Edwards - Deep-league Only

In his rookie season, Edwards caught 11 of his 15 targets for 193 yards and one touchdown. Last year he pushed his catch total to 34 with 571 yards and three touchdowns on 59 targets. The Raiders didn't give him more than six targets in any matchup.

Edwards brings a feel of a big, physical wide receiver in the NFL with the route running and release to win over the short areas of the field. In the deep passing game, he has the wheels to get on top of some cornerbacks. His hands should improve with more chances while already owning the ability to snatch tough passes in traffic. He'll make some spectacular catches with one hand.

Over four seasons at South Carolina, Edwards caught 234 balls for 3,045 yards and 22 touchdowns. His best season in catches (71) came in 2019, yards in 2018 (846), and TDs (7) in 2018. Unfortunately, he missed his last two contests in 2019 and suffered a broken foot before the NFL combine.

Edwards can bounce off defenders or beat them with his speed. He'll win in space on many one-on-one matchups while also showing some value as an open-field runner.

Fantasy outlook: At this point of his career, Edwards needs to establish himself as a lead starting wideout. The Falcons may use him more in a deep threat role (17.0 yards per catch with Las Vegas) while also having a chance to be a third-year breakout player. His next step looks to be 50 catches for 750 yards with short scores.

WR Olamide Zaccheaus - Deep-league Only

The Falcons gave Zaccheaus WR3 snaps in four games in 2020, leading to two productive games (8/86 and 4/103/1). He finished the season with 20 catches for 274 yards and one score on 32 targets. A toe injury ended his season in early December.

Last season he set career-highs in catches (31), receiving yards (406), touchdowns (3), and targets (53) while having the second-most snaps (610) in Atlanta.

In his best year at Virginia, Zaccheaus caught 93 passes for 1,058 yards and nine touchdowns on 136 targets.

Fantasy outlook: His quickness puts him more in the mix for snaps on the outside. Zaccheaus will be found in the free-agent pool in all leagues.

TE Kyle Pitts - Stud (low risk)

Atlanta had Pitts on the field for 72.8% of their plays last season. He posted two impact games (9/119/1 and 7/163) with one other matchup (6/102) with over 100 yards receiving. However, over his final 11 contests, the Falcons failed to give him more than seven targets in any game. His catch rate (61.8) came in lower than expected while gaining an impressive 15.1 yards per catch.

After showing growth in his sophomore season (54/649/5) at Florida, Pitts dominated over eight games (43/770/12) in 2020. His season started with an explosive showing against Mississippi (8/170/4) and ended with three more strong outings (5/99/3, 7/128, and 7/129/1). Then, in early November, he took a nasty hit that led to a concussion and surgery on his nose, costing him a couple of games.

Pitts comes to the NFL with a big wide receiver feel while showing the ability to play inside or outside. He ran a 4.44 in the 40-yard dash at the Gators' pro day while also bench pressing 225 lbs. a mere 22 times. Pitts offers an impact feel to the tight end position when pairing his speed to his already edge in size (6'6" and 245 lbs.). His next area of improvement will come as a blocker, which will come with more bulk and better technique.

Fantasy outlook: In 2022, Pitts is Atlanta's clear-cut top receiving option. He ranks third at tight end in June in the NFFC with an ADP of 36. His natural progression should be 85 catches for 1,200 yards and growth in scoring.

Other Options: Anthony Firkser, Parker Hesse, John Fitzpatrick

PK Younghoe Koo - Quality Backup

Over his three seasons with the Falcons, Koo made 92.6% of his 94 field-goal tries with strength from 50 yards or more (13-for-14). He has four missed extra points in his 91 career chances. Last year, Atlanta created 62 scoring chances (33 touchdowns and 29 field goals).

Fantasy outlook: Koo has the type of leg fantasy teams should desire, but the Falcons have a bottom-tier offense. On the positive side, they may stall on many drives in the red zone, leading to more three-point chances. For now, Koo is only a week-to-week matchup option

Atlanta - Low Potential

Atlanta fell to 27th in rushing yards allowed (2,242) with 19 touchdowns and seven runs over 20 yards. Their regression came from offenses attempting 30.5 rushes per game while gaining 4.3 yards per carry.

The Falcons improved to 18th in passing yards allowed (3,952) with 31 touchdowns and only 12 interceptions. Quarterbacks gained 7.1 yards per pass attempt with 51 completion over 20 yards. Their defense had a league-low 18 sacks.

The cornerback position should be in good hands with A.J. Terrell, Isaiah Oliver, and Casey Hayward, but they have weaknesses at the safety position. Atlanta lacks talent on their defensive line to rush the quarterback or even shut down the run. Any success stopping offenses on the ground or pressuring the quarterback will come from their linebackers.

The Falcons desperately need more sacks to help close the passing window by quarterbacks. They will rank below the league average in all areas again in 2022 with minimal fantasy value.