Pittsburgh Steelers
By Jody Smith, Saturday, July 13, 2024 |
Mike Tomlin did another masterful job guiding his 2023 Steelers squad to the AFC playoffs. But after dipping to 25th in offense and 28th in scoring, massive changes were needed in Pittsburgh. That is precisely what occurred during the offseason as the 2024 Steelers will look very different. It starts under center. Tomlin traded Kenny Pickett to the Eagles and brought in Russell Wilson on the veteran's minimum. Wilson's play rebounded somewhat in 2023 but he thew for a career-low 3,040 yards and 7.8 ADOT. Additionally, Wilson will have added competition in the form of Justin Fields. Tomlin acquired Fields for a late-round pick and declined his fifth-year option. Wilson will enter camp as the starter but Fields could easily usurp that job away. Although both options will be significant upgrades for Pittsburgh's offense, it's a tricky situation best avoided by fantasy drafters until there is clarity. Pittsburgh's two-man backfield helped the club rank 15th in rushing. After the team used their first two draft picks to reinforce a sagging offensive line, the Steelers remain committed to a committee backfield. Najee Harris led the way with 255 totes, 1,035 rushing yards, and eight scores. Jaylen Warren was more effective (5.3 YPC) but received double-digit attempts just five times. Warren's 78 targets ranked sixth, giving him more fantasy appeal in an offense that will have more success passing. Along with a new QB, George Pickens will take over as the club's No. 1 receiver after Diontae Johnson was sent to Carolina. Despite the sluggish nature of Pittsburgh's passing attack, Pickens still posted WR28 numbers in 2023. As the unquestioned top dog, Pickens has a ton of fantasy appeal as a mid-round value. Johnson's slot role will be named by 2024 third-rounder Roman Wilson. Wilson graded out as PFF's No. 9 slot receiver at Michigan last season and will open his pro career in a fantasy-friendly role. He's a deep sleeper to target. Veteran journeymen Van Jefferson and Calvin Austin will vie for the other perimeter spot. Pat Freiermuth also stands to benefit from the vacated targets. His production declined sharply in 2023 after a pair of solid campaigns to open his career. Injuries also played a part in that. But with uncertainty in a thin receiving corps, Freiemuth should contend for TE1 numbers again, making him a solid value. Reserve Darnell Washington (7/70/0) is well off the radar. Expect the Steelers to be noticeably more competent on offense in 2024. However, with noted fantasy nemesis Arthur Smith calling plays, fantasy football managers might want to limit their exposure to the Steelers this summer. QB Russell Wilson - Bye Week Fill-inDespite playing significantly better last season than the previous year, Sean Payton unceremoniously benched Russell Wilson for Denver's final three games. The Broncos then released Wilson and took a record $89 million dead cap hit. Wilson signed the veteran's minimum to join the Steelers, where he will be a big improvement over Kenny Pickett. However, the Steelers also acquired Justin Fields, which complicates things for Wilson, who could be released with little ramifications. Wilson was the QB17 in fantasy points per game in 2023, so there's a solid chance he can still be an effective player. But Fields's presence lingers, making both signal-callers risky bets on draft day. ADVICE: Boom-or-Bust option with outside shot of QB1 numbers, but presence of Justin Fields makes him a volatile pick UPDATE: Wilson was named Pittsburgh's Week 1 starter. Fields will be looming over his shoulder, but Wilson stil offers QB2 upside. QB Justin Fields - Deep-league OnlyADVICE: The Steelers were able to acquire Fields for a conditional late-round pick. Fields will enter training camp behind Russell Wilson on the depth chart, but it wouldn't be a surprise to see Fields garner some starts or to even vault the fading Wilson on the depth chart. If that happens, Fields is a strong QB2. He's a late-round target to monitor this summer.UPDATE: The Bears will open the season with Russell Wilson under center. There may be a package for Fields, but he should now be viewed as merely a bench stash in Superflex formats. RB Jaylen Warren - Sleeper (undervalued)With Russell Wilson and Justin Fields, the Steelers offense should be far more competent in 2024. Despite playing second fiddle to Najee Harris, Jaylen Warren still posted overall RB20 numbers last season by being far more productive on a per-touch basis (4th in yards after contact per attempt, 2nd in PFF Elusive Rating). Warren was tied for fifth among all backs with 74 targets and an increase in QB play would help. With Harris set to hit free agency at the conclusion of the year, Warren will have the opportunity to emerge as Pittsburgh's lead back. He's a dynamic sleeper to target at his current ADP. ADVICE: One of the top sleeper RBs to target RB Najee Harris - Quality BackupEven though he opened his career with three consecutive 1000-yard campaigns and scoring 28 touchdowns, Najee Harris has been labeled a disappointment. Harris sports a paltry 3.9 yards-per-carry average for his career and has seen his receiving production decrease each season. He's also been outplayed by Jaylen Warren. Harris had more weeks (5) outside the top 36 than inside the top 12 (4). The Steelers declined to pick up Harris's fifth-year option, so he'll be motivated to audition for other teams. However, the Steelers should rely on the passing attack more in 2024, which could cut into Harris's playing time. ADVICE: More of an RB3/Flex option than RB2 WR George Pickens - Solid/Safe PickThere's a lot to like about George Pickens in 2024. First, Pickens was very good last season, accounting for 1,140 receiving yards and ranking inside the top 20 in yards after catch, yards per target, air yards, and ADOT. Secondly, Diontae Johnson is in Carolina, which will put even more emphasis on Pickens as the team's clear No 1 wideout. And finally, the Steelers passing game has nowhere to go but up with Russell Wilson under center. Pickens checks out the boxes to fall into the third-year breakout WR category. A run at 75/1,200/8 seems like a realistic outcome for Pickens. ADVICE: Ascending talent who will contend for WR2 number in his third season WR Roman Wilson - Super Sleeper (high risk/potential)ADVICE: A third-round rookie, Wilson has a clear path to slot duties in Pittsburgh. He has the skill set to thrive in play-action and could easily push for 80-plus targets. Under-drafted late-round sleeper who looks like a safe bet to be his team's locked-in No. 2 wideout. WR Van Jefferson - Not Draft WorthyJefferson hasn't lived up to his draft billing. Even though he is penciled in to see a decent number of snaps in a Pittsburgh offense that should be significantly better, Jefferson is well off the fantasy radar. TE Pat Freiermuth - Quality BackupPittsburgh ranked 25th in passing last season but a Week 4 hamstring injury ultimately derailed Freiermuth's 2023 campaign. After a TE7 finish in 2022, Freiermuth dropped to 6.2 fantasy points per game and scored double-digit points just three times in 12 games. The Steelers' passing attack will bounce back with Russell Wilson and Justin Fields, so there is a good chance that Freiermuth can approach TE1 status again. That makes him a decent late-round target at his depressed ADP. View Freiermuth as a solid TE2 with some rotational or streaming value. ADVICE: Good streaming option with an outside shot at contending for borderline TE1 numbers PK Chris Boswell - Not Draft WorthyBoswell is coming off of his most accurate season but still ranked outside the top 20 fantasy kickers- an area he routinely finishes. Even with the improvements to Pittsburgh's passing attack, Boswell isn't a reliable fantasy option. Pittsburgh - Bye Week Fill-inPittsburgh personified the "bend but don't break" approach to defense. The Steelers only ranked 21st in total D but were sixth in points allowed. In all, the Steelers ranked 11th in fantasy points and could be in a good position to repeat or improve on those numbers in 2024. The NFL's new kick return rules could lead to a touchdown or two for Cordarrelle Patterson, who follows Arthur Smith over from Atlanta. |