Pittsburgh Steelers

With high-stakes fantasy football legend Shawn Childs anchoring Sports Illustrated's fantasy coverage, we decided to give our take on Shawn's Team Outlooks. While we won't always agree, Shawn's pedigree speaks for itself. Shawn has been a high-stakes Fantasy Football legend since 2004 when he had success in his first season (three titles and $25,000 in winnings). Childs has competed and won six-figures in all different formats – auctions, draft championships, main events, and high-dollar leagues. We dare you to find an expert who knows the NFL player pool better than Shawn Childs -- it can't be done!

For the first time since 2004, the Pittsburgh Steelers will open the season without Ben Roethlisberger behind center. Mitchell Trubisky expects to start at quarterback, while Kenny Pickett and Mason Rudolph hope to outplay him at training camp. Najee Harris had a tremendous rookie season, but his high production in yards (1,647) came from volume of touches (381), not impact plays (3.9 yards per catch and 6.3 yards per catch). Both Diontae Johnson and Chase Claypool have flashes of exceptional play while needing to improve their catch rate. Pat Freiermuth looks to be a developing tight end. The real question is whether Mike Tomlin can squeeze enough out of this team to remain contenders in the AFC North as every other team looks improved in the offseason.

Offense

The Steelers continue to be a pass-heavy offense. Last year they finished 4th in passing attempts (664) while throwing the ball 61.8 % of the time. Pittsburgh has the 5th lowest number of rushes (411 – 24.2 per game). A significant change at quarterback invites a different game plan in 2022.

QB Mason Rudolph - Not Draft Worthy

Over his last three seasons at Oklahoma State, Rudolph passed for 12,765 yards with 86 touchdowns and 22 interceptions. He scored 16 rushing touchdowns over his final two seasons despite gaining only 96 yards rushing on 144 carries.

Rudolph passed for 2,366 yards with 16 touchdowns and 11 interceptions over his 17 games with Pittsburgh (10 starts – 5-4-1). His completion rate (61.5) has been below starting quarterback value while also having weakness in his yards per pass attempts (6.2).

Other Options: Chris Oladokun

QB Mitchell Trubisky - Sleeper (undervalued)

Most football observers think of Trubisky as a first-round bust (2nd overall pick in 2017). After a quiet rookie season (4-8 with seven touches and seven interceptions), he went 25-13 over his next 38 starts, with a pro bowl appearance in 2018. His completion rate (65.3) was respectable over this stretch, but Trubisky settles for too many short passes (6.7 yards per pass attempt). He will help the Steelers' run game with his legs (203/1,081/9 – in his career), which should be a win for Najee Harris as well.

Pittsburgh signed Trubisky to a two-year deal with a base pay of $14 million with an upside of $27 million if he hits on all of his incentives. He spent last season watching from the sidelines in Buffalo.

Fantasy outlook: Based on the previous structure of the Steelers' offense (4th in passing attempts in 2021 – 664 and 1st in 2020 – 656), Trubisky is a live option to outperform his early quarterback ranking (29th) in the Fantasy Football World Championship) in the latter third of May. Pittsburgh has a pass-catching back plus three viable receiving options (Diontae Johnson, Chae Claypool, and Pat Freiermuth). He'll also chip in with some fantasy points in the run game. With 17 starts, I could see him delivering 4,500 combined yards with more than 26 touchdowns.

QB Kenny Pickett - Gamble (high risk)

Pickett developed into a stud quarterback in 2021 after a mediocre career over his first four seasons (7,984 passing yards with 39 touchdowns and 25 interceptions over 39 games) in college. Last year, he passed for 4,319 yards with 42 passing touchdowns and seven interceptions. His completion rate (67.2) and yards per pass attempt (8.7) were well above his previous resume (60.4 and 6.8). Over five seasons, he ran the ball 417 times for 801 yards and 20 touchdowns despite gaining only 1.9 yards per carry.

The Pittsburgh Panthers used Pickett almost exclusively out of the shotgun, which fits well with the Steelers. When given a long passing window, he had his eyes up, looking to beat defenses over the top. Pickett showed the ability to make quick pre-snap reads. His arm strength grades well with enough mobility to make a breaking free rusher miss with his legs. When asked to roll out to his right, Pickett maintained his accuracy on the move. He won't be a difference-maker in the run game, but Pickett can pick up some first downs with his legs and offer scoring value on sneaks as the goal line.

At the next level, his most significant challenges will come from a shorter passing window and the overall quality of his support cast in the passing game. In a way, he has a Matt Ryan feel with less size but more quickness. Pickett is a pocket passer with a chance to beat expectations by some scouts.

Fantasy outlook: The Steelers expect Pickett to work off the bench this year to give him time to develop. His aggressive style may prove more impactful for Pittsburgh's offense this season if Mitchell Trubisky can't deliver wins and big plays.

RB Anthony McFarland - Not Draft Worthy

Pittsburgh went with the fun player (McFarland) with their first pick in round four of the 2020 NFL DRAFT. His speed (4.44 40-yard dash) and quickness separate him from the field while owning a Chris Johnson style of running in the open space. His only gear is full throttle, which is electric if given room to clear the line of scrimmage. He looks to have some fight in his game, with moves to make defenders miss.

Over his two seasons with Pittsburgh, he has 36 rushes for 116 yards with seven catches for 65 yards.

Fantasy outlook: Durability and winning in tight quarters will hurt his long-term value. The Steelers would like to use him as a change of pace option on early downs. McFarland needs to develop as a pass-catcher while lacking the size (5'8" and 208 lbs.) to be trusted initially in pass protection.

Other Options: Trey Edmunds, Mataeo Durant, Jaylen Warren

RB Najee Harris - Stud (low risk)

The Steelers set a three-year high in rushing attempts (386) and rushing yards (1,525), but their backs gained fewer than 4.0 yards per carry for the third straight season. Najee Harris gave the appearance of improved play in the pass-catching out of the backfield, but Pittsburgh gained only 6.3 yards per catch for the second year in a row. The Steelers have a long history of featuring one running back. Volume is an excellent friend in the fantasy market and shouldn't be dismissed when making draft-day decisions.

Najee Harris

In his first season in the NFL, Harris ranked third in fantasy scoring (300.70) in PPR formats. Pittsburgh had him on the field for 81.4 % of their plays, leading to a massive workload (381 touches). In essence, Harris had a Le'Veon Bell opportunity in this offense with less explosiveness. Between Week 2 and Week 17, Harris has a floor of 16.80 fantasy points in 13 of his 15 starts. He was a better player at home (1,042 combined yards with five touchdowns and 44 catches) than on the road (653 combined yards with five touchdowns and 32 catches). His only three games with over 100 yards rushing (23/122/1, 26/105, and 28/188/1) came in Pittsburgh.

The Steelers added a pair of offensive linemen via free agency – C Mason Cole and G James Daniels, but there was no sense of urgency to invest in elite offensive linemen in this year's draft. Pittsburgh allowed 38 sacks last year (14 in 2020), which was significantly helped by Ben Roethlisberger getting the ball out quickly.

Fantasy outlook: Many fantasy drafters will debate the value and potential ceiling of Harris compared to Derrick Henry this year. They currently rank 5th and 6th at running back based on their Advanced ADPs (Henry – 5.4 and Harris – 6.2) in the FFWC. The key for Harris is better blocking to improve his production per play. At the same time, the change at quarterback could lead to a step back in catches. His floor appears to be 1,500 combined yards with 10 scores and 60 catches, but he'll need to beat those stats to fill his draft day ranking.

Pre-Season Pro Alert! Billy Muzio has Najee Harris selected in his pre-season pro as a back you should avoid. To read this analysis, you'll need to join the Fulltime Fam.

RB Benny Snell - Not Draft Worthy

Over the past three seasons, Pittsburgh gave Snell some chances to shine on early downs. Unfortunately, he gained only 892 yards on 255 rushes with minimal value in the passing game (15/97). He's gaining only 3.5 yards per rush with six career scores. The Steelers only gave him 38 touches in 2021.

Over three seasons at Kentucky, Snell gained 4,089 combined yards with 48 touchdowns and 29 catches while receiving 766 touches. He runs with patience and vision while lacking the wheels to make big plays.

Fantasy outlook: Snell has a lot to prove this summer. I don't view him as a lock to be the handcuff for Najee Harris, and he offers no value in the passing game.

WR Diontae Johnson - Solid/Safe Pick

The Steelers' wide receiver production remains high in 2021 due to 421 targets, but their catch rate (59.6) came in well below last year (64.3). In addition, there was a sharp decline in touchdowns (12 – 30 in 2020). The quick passing game by Pittsburgh led to only 10.97 and 10.50 yards per catch over the past two seasons.

Diontae Johnson

Last season, Johnson developed into a high-volume receiver, leading to him ranking tied for second in wide receiver targets (169) and fifth in catches (107). However, his lower yards per catch (10.9) led to a lower finish in receiving yards (1,161). Johnson had 15 drops in 2020, hurting his catch rate (61.1). Last year he improved his catch rate to 63.3, helped by only seven drops.

Johnson had a floor of seven catches in nine starts, but he gained over 100 yards in only three games (9/105, 7/101/1, and 8/105/2). Pittsburgh gave him double-digit targets in 13 matchups.

Fantasy outlook: After finished 8th in fantasy scoring (276.40) in PPR leagues, Johnson comes off the board as the 14th wideout with an ADP of 34 in the FFWC in late May. I could see fewer passes by the Steelers this season after the change at quarterback, creating a natural regression in stats by their wide receivers. Johnson fits better as WR2 with the skill set to be a 6/60 guy in many weeks. He should score between five and seven touchdowns.

WR Chase Claypool - Bust (overvalued)

The buzz and momentum in Claypool as a rising young wide receiver moved in the wrong direction in 2021. He played well in Week 3 (9/96) and Week 5 (5/130/1) while sitting the game in between with a hamstring issue. Over his final 12 games (including the playoffs), he scored fewer than 10.00 fantasy points in seven contests (2/17, 3/30, 2/52, 0/12, 4/41, 3/17, and 3/25) while averaging only 6.4 targets. His catch rate (56.2) had repeated weakness (56.9 in 2020).

In the second round in 2020, Pittsburgh invested in Claypool. I don't expect him to outwork any defenders over the short areas of the field due to questionable explosiveness out of complicated routes. His release will also be an issue when facing physical defenders in press coverage. Claypool will present a problem with slants, crossing patterns, and down the seam where his straight-line speed is an edge if given a step or two in coverage. Notre Dame used him on many fades as the goal line, but his footwork and ability to make plays will be slowed down if challenged early at the line of scrimmage or by adding a second defender to his side of the field.

Fantasy outlook: In his one easy season, Claypool slipped to the 43rd ranked wide receiver in the FFWC with an ADP of 107. Last year he came off the board as the 23rd wideout. At this point, Claypool's play has fallen in line with his scoring report. Last year, he didn't win enough one-on-one matchups on the outside, and Pittsburgh failed to get enough easy catches close to the line of scrimmage. However, his size does invite more scoring. Also, a third season in the league should lead to growth. Let's shoot for baby steps (65/900/6), even with a switch at quarterback.

WR George Pickens - Sleeper (undervalued)

The Steelers made another aggressive move to upgrade their wide receiver position by adding Pickens in the second round of the 2022 NFL Draft. He performed well in his freshman year at Georgia (49/727/8 on 77 targets). However, the following season, he tore an ACL in his eight games (36/513/6), leading to almost a lost season in 2021 (5/107).

Scouts have their mental picture of Pickens based on his first two years in college. He'll have a couple of seasons of growth in his frame in 2022 while expecting more strength. Pickens brings excellent size (6'3") with a good feel for catching the ball with strong hands outside his frame. I expect him to win over the top of defenses with sneaky nastiness to his game in blocking. His route running has areas of strength, but some improvement is needed.

Fantasy outlook: Pickens will overlap Chase Claypool in some parts of his game, but he will win more balls over the top and in tight coverage. In addition, his value in the open field looks more explosive. As a result, Pickens is a must-follow this summer as he may be more relevant than his early ADP (188) in the FFWC suggests.

WR Calvin Austin III - Not Draft Worthy

Pittsburgh added another wideout in the fourth round of this year's draft. Austin brings an undersized skill set (5'8" and 170 lbs.) to the NFL. Over the last two seasons at Memphis, he delivered two productive years (63/1,053/11 and 74/1,149/8) while being helped by many targets (119 and 127).

Austin ran a 4.32 40-yards dash at the 2020 NFL Combine while excelling in the 3-Cone Drill (6.65 seconds). He projects a potential slot player with a gimmick feel. His speed will test a defense deep, but Austin will struggle to catch the ball in tight coverage.

Fantasy outlook: The Steeler may use him to return kicks. His role and opportunity will be minimal in his rookie season.

Other Options: Miles Boykin, Anthony Miller, Gunner Olszewski

TE Pat Freiermuth - Solid/Safe Pick

The addition of Pat Freiermuth helped the Steelers' offense set three-year highs in catches (92), receiving yards (749), touchdowns (7), and targets (123). They caught 21.6 % of Pittsburgh's completions, about five percentage points higher than the previous two seasons. Their only strike was that their tight ends gained 8.1 yards per catch.

Pat Freiermuth

After a limited role over the first five games (1/24, 4/36, 3/22/1, 1/11, and 2/7), Freiermuth earned staring snaps for most of the Steelers' remaining matchups. From Week 6 to Week 18 (11 games), he delivered starting fantasy stats (49/397/6 – 11.34 FPPG) in PPR leagues. His catch rate (75.9) graded well, but Freiermuth gained only 8.3 yards per catch (two plays of 20 yards or more).

Penn State featured Freiermuth as a top-scoring threat in the passing game over his first two seasons. He picked up 15 touchdowns over 25 games with 69 catches for 875 yards. As a freshman, Freiermuth gained an impressive 14.2 yards per catch, but he turned more into a possession option in 2019 (11.8 yards per catch). Freiermuth busted out of the gate the next season with 23 catches for 310 yards and one touchdown over four games, but his season ended in mid-November with a right shoulder injury that required surgery.

His short-area quickness or overall speed won't be an edge, but Freiermuth is a hands catcher who plays with strength and power to finish off his receptions for first downs and touchdowns. He reads defenders well with the vision to see open space. Freiermuth will be a play-action scoring threat with the ability to work the middle of a defense in the end zone. Penn State gave him chances on the move behind the line of scrimmage and jump balls at the goal line.

Fantasy outlook: Despite success in his rookie season, Freiermuth projects as Pittsburgh's third/fourth option in the passing game behind Najee Harris and Diontae Johnson. He should remain a scoring threat, and a more mobile quarterback may lead to longer catches. With a 65/650/6 type season, Freiermuth will be a top 12 fantasy tight end this year. His ADP (110) in the FFWC prices him as the 11th ranked tight end.

Other Options: Zach Gentry, Kevin Radar, Conner Hayward

PK Chris Boswell - Quality Backup

Your league still uses kickers? In his seven years in the NFL, Boswell made a minimum of 90 % of his field goals in five different seasons. Last year he had the best year of his career (36-for-40), helped by his success from 50 yards or more (8-for-9). Over the past two seasons, Boswell missed six of his 67 extra points.

Fantasy outlook: Pittsburgh had a below-par offense last season, and they don't project to be much better this year unless they have better-than-expected quarterback play. The positive for Boswell is that the Steelers will stall in the red zone on many drives. Possible top 10 kicker with matchup value.

Pittsburgh - Solid/Safe Pick

Pittsburgh fell to last in the NFL vs. the run (1,483 yards) with 17 touchdowns and 24 runs over 20 yards while allowing 5,0 yards per rush.

They dipped 9th in passing yards allowed (3,656) with 24 touchdowns and 13 interceptions. The Steelers' defense had 55 sacks, with quarterbacks gaining only 7.1 yards per pass attempt.

Pittsburgh has one of the best pass-rushing defenders (T.J. Watt) in the league who continues to improve. DE Cameron Heyward remains a force against the run while adding 10 sacks, but he is at the backend of his career. The Steelers need LB Devin Bush to live up to his draft pedigree (10th overall in 2019), especially against the run. Pittsburgh has two talented players (Minkah Fitzpatrick and Terrell Edmunds) at the safety position.

Pittsburgh should have strength at the second level of their defense while needing to solidify their defensive line. They also have questions at cornerbacks, which can be covered up at times by a heavy pass rush. This defense should rebound against the run while ranking as a top 10 fantasy defense in 2022. If the Steelers lost T.J. Watt to an injury, they would regress in all areas this season.