Chicago Bears

With high-stakes fantasy football legend Shawn Childs anchoring Sports Illustrated's fantasy coverage, we decided to give our take on Shawn's Team Outlooks. While we won't always agree, Shawn's pedigree speaks for itself. Shawn has been a high-stakes Fantasy Football legend since 2004 when he had success in his first season (three titles and $25,000 in winnings). Childs has competed and won six-figures in all different formats – auctions, draft championships, main events, and high-dollar leagues. We dare you to find an expert who knows the NFL player pool better than Shawn Childs -- it can't be done!

The Chicago Bears bring in their fourth coaching staff over the past decade. The first question is whether Justin Fields is a franchise quarterback. RB David Montgomery struggled to make big plays last year, but was his regression a team issue or his lack of explosiveness? Their wide receiving corps doesn't look like an edge on paper, and the Bears need TE Cole Kmet to make a step forward in his third season.

Offense

With a running back quarterback added to the Bears' offense, Chicago ran the ball 46.7% of the time. Their overall offense lacks star power while trending toward the bottom of the league in scoring.

QB Justin Fields - Gamble (high risk)

In his rookie season, Fields went 2-8 with more interceptions (10) than touchdowns (7). His completion rate (58.9) and yards per pass attempt (6.9) showed weakness, but he ran the ball well (72/420/2). Over his first six starts, Fields passed for over 210 yards in one matchup (291/1) while delivering only five combined scores. He missed time last in the season with an ankle issue and Covid-19.

Fields played for one of the best football programs in the NCAA in 2019 and 2020, and he did them proud by going 20-2 despite failing to win a national championship. He passed for 5,373 yards with 63 touchdowns and nine interceptions. Fields finished his college career with 260 rushes for 1,133 yards and 19 touchdowns.

He has been a great player in high school and college. However, Ohio State hasn't produced a winning NFL starting quarterback in the Super Bowl era, which may be a strike against his ceiling.

Despite some impressive stats, Fields does come with knocks from some NFL scouts. He needs to improve his pre-snap reads when facing the blitz, plus show more quickness in his release under duress. His strengths come from his toughness and playmaking ability while having the base to the break pocket after getting hit. Fields takes what the defense gives him as a runner, which gains value at the goal line.

His arm has the strength to make all the NFL throws. Fields plays well when asked to throw on the run. Reading defenses is the most significant area of growth needed.

Fantasy outlook: Fields is the 17th-ranked quarterback in the National Fantasy Football Championship. I don't respect his pass-catching talent, plus his ceiling scoring looks relatively low. With 17 starts, 4,000 combined yards would be a lot to ask, and he won't beat the league average in touchdowns. Fields is a game manager who needs more time to develop.

Other Options: Trevor Siemian, Nathan Peterman

RB Darrynton Evans - Not Draft Worthy

In 2018 in college, he worked more as a change of pace back (179/1187/7), leading to 6.6 yards per rush and minimal chances in the passing game (12/87/1). In 2019, Evans developed into a lead runner with value on three downs (1,678 combined yards with 23 touchdowns and 21 catches on 276 touches). His best game came in Week 2 against Charlotte (19/234/3).

Evans attacks quickly after the snap with the idea of making big plays. His movements in space will threaten every level of the defense. He'll break tackles with the moves and quickness to beat defenders to the hole. Evans needs to improve as an inside runner. I expect him to hold his own in pass protection while having the upside feel in the passing game.

A hamstring injury cost Evans 11 games in his rookie season. He finished with only 81 combined yards with a touchdown and two catches on 16 touches. Last season, the Titans only gave him four touches with 18 yards and two catches.

Fantasy outlook: Evans brings plus speed and change of pace value. This season, he'll compete for a bench role on the Bears. His first step is staying healthy. He may have fallen behind Trestan Ebner for RB3 duties, so at this point, Evans should not be drafted.

Other options: Trestan Ebner, De'Montre Tuggle

RB David Montgomery - Solid/Safe Pick

A year after setting career-highs in all areas in 2020 (1,508 combined yards with 10 touchdowns and 54 catches on 301 touches), Montgomery averaged 20.5 touches last year with regression in his yards per rush (3.8) and per catch (7.2). He gained over 20 yards on five of his 267 chances. Over his first four games, he gained over 100 yards rushing in two contests (16/108/1 and 23/106/2) before missing four games with a left knee injury. His value rushing the ball (156/540/4 – 3.5 yards per carry) declined when Montgomery returned over his final nine games. On the positive side, the Bears did get him more chances in the passing game (36/252 on 42 targets).

Fantasy outlook: I am concerned that Montgomery has a lingering ACL issue that may need surgery down the road. In mid-June, he has an ADP of 41 in the FFWC as the 19th running back selected. Chicago should give him a third-down opportunity with close to 20 touches per game. Montgomery has an upside of 1,500 yards with eight to 10 touchdowns and 50 catches.

RB Khalil Herbert - Super Sleeper (high risk/potential)

Herbert has early-down potential and needs rhythm timing to excel through the line of scrimmage. When on the move, he flows to the hole with the vision and acceleration to reach the second level of the defense. Herbert gets in trouble when hitting road blocks due to his gearing and taking a couple of steps to reach peak speed. His pass protection is below par with minimal early value in the passing game.

Over five seasons at Virginia Tech, Herbert finished with 3,214 combined yards with 23 touchdowns and 34 catches. His highlight year was 2020 (1,361 combined yards with nine scores and 10 catches).

With David Montgomery injured over four games, he gained 388 combined yards with one touchdown and nine catches on 87 touches. Unfortunately, he barely touches the ball over his other 12 matchups (141 yards on 30 touches).

Fantasy outlook: Herbert played well enough last year to be the top handcuff at running back this season. His ADP (153) should make him an easy add for anyone drafting David Montgomery. However, his role will be minimal without an injury.

WR Darnell Mooney - Sleeper (undervalued)

In his second season in the NFL, Mooney led the Bears in catches (81), receiving yards (1,055), and targets (140). He finished 24th in wide receiver scoring (219.70) in PPR leagues. His best game in catches (12/126) came in Week 18. Mooney had three other showings with over 100 yards receiving (5/125, 5/121/1, and 5/123) with a floor of five catches in 12 matchups. His catch rate (57.9) needs work, but he ranked 11tth at wideout in targets.

The Bears selected Mooney with their third pick in the fifth round. He came into the league with a deep speed skill set while having questions about his value over the short areas of the field. Mooney is an undersized receiver (5'11" and 180 lbs.) with the wheels to run faster than 4.40 in the 40-yard dash.

Fantasy outlook: This season, Mooney will operate as the Bears' WR1, meaning he should see more attention from defenses. His ability to challenge cornerback over the long field creates some big-game, and Justin Fields will air the ball out. His ADP (70) in mid-June in the FFWC ranks him 28th at wide receiver. Mooney brings a consistency factor, but his impact value looks marginal due to his lower ceiling in scoring. I'll set his bar at about 85 catches for 1,100 yards and five scores.

Our Take: We're labeling him as a sleeper because most sites don't have him in the Top 24 of their Wide Receivers. We do and we think he's in for an incredible season. Fireworks. Take your shot on Mooney in the 6th round or earlier and don't look back!

WR Byron Pringle - Deep-league Only

The Chiefs gave Pringle his best opportunity (60 targets) in 2021, leading to 42 catches for 568 yards and five touchdowns. His best play came from Week 16 to Week 20 (6/75/2, 3/35, 5/56, 5/37/2, and 5/29/1). He only has 67 catches for 898 yards and seven touchdowns on 93 targets in his three seasons with Kansas City. Pringle will start the year at age 28, and he signed a one-year deal worth $4.1 million in mid-March.

Fantasy outlook: Even with growth last year, a fantasy drafter shouldn't expect another year of progression in his stat after signing with Chicago. The change in offenses is a negative, and he really didn't make enough plays with the Chiefs to be considered a viable fantasy starter in 2022.

WR Velus Jones - Deep-league Only

When reviewing NFL draft picks, one of my pet peeves is drafting older players with their early selections. For example, Chicago added Jones (age 25) in the third round of the 2022 NFL Draft after he showed improvement in 2021 at Tennessee (62/807/7). The Bears wanted a wideout with plus speed (low 4.3s in the 40-yard dash) to test defenses in the deep passing game plus improve their return game, but his window to develop and produce looks relatively short. Over five seasons in college, Jones had 120 catches for 1,434 yards and 12 touchdowns on 166 targets. His catch rate (72.3) came in better than expected, but he didn't make enough big plays (11.9 yards per catch).

Fantasy outlook: Jones will have minimal chances to catch the ball this year. He averaged 24.4 yards on his 122 kickoff returns in his career, with two scores. His first chance at returning punts came in 2021 (18/272 – 15.1 yards per return). Jones may be an upgrade to the Bears' defense/special teams in the fantasy world.

WR Equanimeous St. Brown - Not Draft Worthy

Over the last two years in college, St. Brown caught 91 passes for 1,476 yards and 13 touchdowns. His game is built more to use the middle of the field on crossing routes while showing the ability to play out of the slot or on the outside. His stats look boring in college, but he didn't have the best talent throwing him the ball. Brown needs to improve his route running and his in-game motor. His release and strength give him a chance to surprise in the proper role down the road.

Injuries at wide receiver helped St. Brown get meaningful snaps over the last 12 games of 2018 with the Packers. His best success came in Week 5 (3/89) and Week 16 (5/94) while failing to score. He finished with 21 catches for 328 yards on 36 targets.

St. Brown missed all of 2019 with a high ankle sprain while also sitting out nine games in 2020 with knee and concussion issues. Over the last two seasons, he only had 16 catches for 215 yards and one touchdown on 30 targets.

Fantasy outlook: St. Brown offers an edge in size (6'5" and 215 lbs), but he doesn't bring enough to the table to be considered a fantasy player of value.

Other Options: Tajae Sharpe, Dazz Newsome, Dante Pettis

TE Cole Kmet - Solid/Safe Pick

Based on Chicago's wide receiving options, Kmet has to be their second option in the passing game behind Darnell Mooney. After a quiet rookie season (28/243/2), he more than doubled his production in catches (60) and yards (612) while failing to find paydirt. His catch rate (64.5) should command more looks this year.

After a quiet first eight weeks (22/197 on 36 targets), Kmet posted three playable games (6/87, 8/65, and 6/71) over his final nine starts. The Bears gave him only 5.5 targets per game. Chicago did toss six touchdowns to their tight ends, suggesting that Kmet could be much better in this area in 2022.

Kmet had some flaws coming out of college. His release, fight off pressed blocks, and initial quickness invited some questions about his three-down value. However, when given a free run to the second level of the defense, his game looks much better. In addition, Kmet will be a vertical threat with the speed (4.7 40-yard dash) to hit on long plays down the seam.

Kmet had minimal chances over his first two years (2/14 and 15/162) at Notre Dame. His game pushed to an attractive NFL level over ten games (43/515/6) in 2019 despite missing the last two contests with a broken collarbone.

The Bears will look to get him in space with motion before the snap to help gain an earlier edge in pass patterns. Kmet will invite more scoring upside on delays or misdirection plays at the goal line when overlooked as a scoring threat.

Fantasy outlook: Based on team structure and potential growth, Kmet is in the mix to be a potential breakout tight end this season. He finished 20th in tight end scoring (121.20) in PPR leagues while drawing the 16th ranking in the early draft season of the FFWC with an ADP of 142. Kmet is on a path to catch 75 passes for 850 yards with five touchdowns, making him a top-six tight end.

Other Options: Ryan Griffin, James O'Shaughnessy, Rysen John

PK Cairo Santos - Not Draft Worthy

Over his two seasons with the Bears, Santos made 56 of his 62 field goals (90.3%) with two misses in his 65 extra-point tries. His leg doesn't project well from long range (10-for-22 in his career from 50 yards or more).

Fantasy outlook: Chicago won't create enough scoring chance to make Santos fantasy relevant in many games this year. At best, he would offer matchup value for a fantasy manager willing to micro-manage the kicking position.

Chicago - Low Potential

The Bears fell to 24th in rushing yards allowed (2,127) with 14 touchdowns and 12 runs over 20 yards. Opponents rushed for 4.4 yards per carry.

Surprisingly, Chicago improved to third in passing yards allowed (3,257) despite allowing 7.6 yards per pass attempt (28th) with 31 touchdowns and eight interceptions. Their defense finished with 49 sacks while giving up 48 catches over 20 yards.

Their defensive line will struggle to get to the quarterback while offering risk against the run. I can't see DE Robert Quinn repeating his value in the pass rush (18.5 sacks). LB Roquan Smith will get plenty of tackles, but the lack of supporting cast around him drags his ability to make impact plays. When adding a weak pass rush, the Bears' secondary doesn't have the talent to rank highly in any areas in 2022. As a result, I don't see any reason to roster this defense in fantasy leagues.