Tampa Bay Buccaneers

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The Tampa Bay Buccaneers have been a fun ride over the past two seasons, with QB Tom Brady leading the show. They went 24-9 with two playoff berths and a Super Bowl title in 2020. At some point, the Brady meal ticket will run out of treats. The Bucs start the year with a downgrade at tight end with Rob Gronkowski retiring. Tampa has two star wideouts (Mike Evans and Chris Godwin), and they added WR Russell Gage for depth. Even with a slow start to the year expected by Godwin after suffering a torn ACL in his right knee last December, the Buccaneers gave him a three-year extension for $60 million. RB Leonard Fournette has a history of struggling every other season while missing 15 games over the previous four years. SI Sportsbook has Tampa lost as a -752 favorite to make the playoffs (highest odds in the NFL) and +300 to make it to the Super Bowl. I sense 2022 won't go as smooth due to injuries and regression in Brady's production.

Offense

In the history of the NFL, only Matthew Stafford in 2012 finished with more pass attempts (727) than Tom Brady (719). Tampa threw the ball 65.5% while averaging only 22.6 rushes. The Bucs will win or lose with the passing game again this season, but they still want to run the ball well in the red zone, and the late in games when playing from the lead.

QB Kyle Trask - Not Draft Worthy

The Bucs added their possible future quarterback in the second round in 2021. He brings an NFL arm with an excellent rhythm in his passes. His weakness comes in his pocket presence and reads at the line of scrimmage and in the secondary. Trask lacks the intangibles needed to start in the NFL at this point of his career. A couple of years holding a clipboard behind Tom Brady should treat him well and possibly fill in the missing links to his game.

In his final year at Florida, Trask passed for 4,283 yards and 43 touchdowns with minimal value on the ground (64/50/3). He finished his college career with strength in his completion rate (67.9) and yards per pass attempt (9.1).

Other Options: Blaine Gabbert, Ryan Griffin

QB Tom Brady - Stud (low risk)

Brady leads the NFL in career passing yards (84,520) and touchdowns (624). He has a 243-73 record with seven Super Bowl titles while winning 10 games or more in 19 of his 20 full seasons, including the last 17 years (Brady only played one game in 2008). He has never had a losing season in his pro career.

Last season Brady led the NFL in completions (485), pass attempts (719), passing yards (5,316), and passing touchdowns (43). In his two seasons in Tampa, he averaged 301 passing yards with 88 combined scores. Brady gained over 300 yards in 10 of his 19 plays while completing 75 passes of 20 yards or more.

Fantasy outlook: Better against Brady in his career has been a losing proposition. The loss of Rob Gronkowski and a slow start expected by Chris Godwin points to regression in his passing yards and touchdowns. In the National Fantasy Football Championship, he is the 12th-ranked quarterback, pricing in his potential step back in production. Besides a four-game suspension in 2016, Brady hasn't missed a start due to an injury since 2008. I'm setting his bar at about 4,700 yards with 34 touchdowns.

RB Leonard Fournette - Solid/Safe Pick

Tampa didn't give Fournette the Lions' share of touches until Week 4 after a slow start to the season (169 combined yards with 12 catches on 36 touches). Over the next 10 weeks, he gained over 100 combined yards in five matchups while averaging 19.7 touches. He finished sixth in running back scoring (255.60) in PPR leagues with two impact games (30.70 and 44.10 fantasy points).

In Week 15, Fournette suffered a hamstring injury, leading to an early exit and three more missed games in the regular season. When he returned in the second week of the postseason, Fournette gained 107 combined yards with two scores and nine catches.

Despite his success in the passing game (69/454/2), he gained short yards per catch (6.6) for the third straight season (6.9 in 2019 and 6.5 in 2020). Fournette had a floor of five catches in nine of his 15 games played (including the playoffs).

Fantasy outlook: Over his five years in the NFL, Fournette played well in odd seasons while averaging 21.2 touches. He has never played an entire year (18 missed games). The latest offseason report suggests Fournette is coming into camp at 240 lbs. with a goal to lose between 10 to 15 lbs. over the summer. His ADP (26) in the NFFC in late June ranks him as the 14th running back. Fournette plays in an offense that should create double-digit scores and plenty of action in the passing game. In addition, Brady trusts him in pass protection. At a minimum, he should receive 300 touches with 1,400 yards with 8-10 touchdowns and 60 catches if Fournette can play at least 16 games.

RB Rachaad White - Sleeper (undervalued)

After a limited role in 2020 in college (571 combined yards with six catches and eight catches on 50 touches), White flashed three-down ability (182/1,006/15 with 43 catches for 456 yards and one touchdown). He gained 5.5 yards per rush and 10.6 yards per catch.

Other than some concern with his pass protection, White brings an exciting three-down skill set. He runs with eyes up with a combination of patience and shimmy, helping him create space at the first level of defenses. When given daylight, White has enough speed to make big plays. He sells his routes well, and his hands grade well.

Fantasy outlook: Based on the injury path by Leonard Fournette, I view White as a must investment as a handcuff back. He has to prove himself to Tom Brady in pass protection to earn pass-catching chances. White has an ADP of 140 in the NFFC as the 45th running back drafted. White has breakout upside if given a jump in snaps after an injury.

RB Ke'Shawn Vaughn - Low Potential

Vaughn gained only 143 combined yards in his rookie season with a touchdown and five catches on 31 touches. His opportunity rose by only nine touches in 2021 (206 combined yards with two touchdowns and four catches).

He breaks tackles with enough vision and quickness to make plays on the outside. His leg drive is an asset, which also helps him in pass protection. He'll run with patience while struggling to climb out of tight quarters unless his win comes from strength. Vaughn should work best over the short areas of the field while being helped by better blocking options in front of him. His game does have some upside as a receiver.

Fantasy outlook: Vaughn is positioned to be Tampa's top backup running back in 2022. In his limited chances early in his career, his rhythm in the passing game appeared to be off, highlighted by his low catch rate (50). As a result, fantasy drafters will find him in the free-agent pool in most formats.

Other Options: Giovani Bernard, Kenjon Barner

WR Mike Evans - Stud (low risk)

Tampa gave Evans 223 targets over the past two seasons with Tom Brady behind center. He extended his streak with 1,000 yards receiving to eight seasons while setting a career-high in touchdowns (14) last year. Despite his success, Evans averaged more targets (9.6) from 2015 to 2018 over 62 games compared to seven per week over his previous 32 starts.

He gained over 100 yards in two matchups (8/106 and 6/113/2) in the regular season while setting up his game in the postseason (9/117/1 and 8/119/2). Additionally, in PPR formats, Evans scored over 20.00 fantasy points in five other contests (24.50, 31.60, 20.30, 21.10, and 26.90). He played through back and hamstring issues late in the season.

With three more productive years, Evans should rank in the top 25 all-time in receiving yards (9,301 – 59th).

Fantasy outlook: Evans can't help but see a bump of about 20% in targets this year. Tampa will continue to rank highly in the league in passing attempts, and their wideout will see the bulk of the action. He has an ADP of 29 in the NFFC in the early draft season as the 10th wide receiver. I'll raise his bar to 90 catches for 1,300 yards and a dozen scores or about 16.50 fantasy points. Evans has six missed games in his career, helping his reliability factor.

WR Russell Gage - Solid/Safe Pick

The Falcons used Gage over the short areas of the field over the previous seasons. His yards per catch improved each year (9.1, 10.9, and 11.7). He has 138 catches for 1,556 yards and eight touchdowns on 203 targets while working in many games as a WR2. Gage flashed in three matchups (11/130, 8/91/1, and 9/126/1) in 2021 while missing three games early in the season with an ankle issue.

Fantasy outlook: With Tampa Bay having a drop-off in talent at tight end, some of those chances should shift over their third wide receiver. Dilemma fantasy player with drafters needing to decide if Gage is worthy of a WR4 opportunity or better in this offense. His ADP (107) in the NFFC in the early draft season ranks him as the 44th wideout. More steady than impactful with bye week or short injury cover value. Think 5/50 player with any scoring being a bonus.

WR Chris Godwin - Gamble (high risk)

After his breakout season in 2019 (86/1,333/9), Godwin has yet to produce the same success in final stats. Last year he was on a similar path (98/1,103/5), but he missed three games with a torn ACL in his right knee. Godwin finished with a career-high in targets (127 – 9.1 per game) but a career-low in yards per catch (11.3). His value in scoring (12 touchdowns over 26 games) has been lower than expected under the guidance of Tom Brady.

A good portion of Godwin's stats came over five matchups (9/105/1, 8/111/1, 8/140/1, 15/143, and 10/105) while having a floor of six catches in 10 of his 14 starts.

Tampa thought enough of his game to sign him for three seasons for $60 million in March. Godwin may be limited over the first couple of contests, but he has enough time to be ready for Week 1 if his injury responds well to rehab.

Fantasy outlook: When on the field and at 100%, Godwin should be a six-catch-a-week guy at a minimum, highlighted by his phenomenal catch rate (75) over the previous three seasons. In late June, he ranks 20th at wide receiver in the NFFC with an ADP of 55. Even with a slow start, Godwin should finish as a top 18 wideout with a chance to catch 90 balls for 1,200 yards and some growth in scoring. His price point will surely rise in August if given the full-go tag in Week 1.

WR Julio Jones - Bye Week Fill-in

Now 33, Jones's best days are clearly behind him. He looked washes last year in Tennessee. However, landing in Tampa Bay with a stellar offense managed by the GOAT Tom Brady was the best-case scenario for Jones. The unsure status of Chris Godwin also gives Jones the chance to establish himself in September with a surplus of snaps in three-wide sets.

Fantasy Outlook: We're buying into Jones being able to be fantasy-relevant in Tampa with Tom Brady. However, his playing time could declien if/when Chris Godwin is fully healthy, so there may be a sell high window in October. For now, we view Jones as a solid mid-to-late round target with plenty of upside.

WR Tyler Johnson - Not Draft Worthy

In college, Johnson played at a high level over his junior (78/1169/12) and senior (86/1318/13) seasons. He averaged 15.5 yards per catch in his career with 33 touchdowns in 43 games.

Johnson grades at an elite level with the hand's tool while having the prowess to win in tight coverage. Unfortunately, his route running, speed, and quickness won't create a big passing window in the pros. Instead, he is more of a zone buster with the feel of a clutch player.

In his rookie season, Johnson caught 12 balls for 169 yards and two scores on 17 targets. Last year, Tampa used him as a chain mover (10.0 yards per catch), leading to 36 catches for 360 yards on 55 targets. He scored over 10.00 fantasy points in PPR formats in only one matchup (5/65).

Fantasy outlook: Godwin should start the year as Tampa's WR4. His game should continue to improve, but his opportunity is below starting fantasy value. At the very least, fantasy drafters should keep an eye on his progress as a possible handcuff option for one of the Bucs' top three wideouts.

UPDATE: Johnson was released by the Bucs and eventually claimed by the Texans on the waiver wire. He should earn some playing time alongside Nico Collins and Brandin Cooks.

Other Options: Breshad Perriman, Scotty Miller, Cyril Grayson

TE Cameron Brate - Deep-league Only

After posting his best season in 2016 (57/660/8), Brate never repeated his success while trickling to TE2 status in the Bucs' offense over the past four years. Tampa used him close to the line of scrimmage since 2018 (9.1 yards per catch) while averaging under two catches for 17 yards per game.

Fantasy outlook: Brate projects to be the Buccaneers' TE1 on the early depth chart. His ceiling is low even with Tampa expected to get plenty of balls to their tight ends again this year. Unfortunately, the Bucs will divide their targets at this position between multiple players. Brate has a waiver wire ADP (245) in the high-stakes market in late June. At best, he is a short-term fill-in while being challenging to time

TE Kyle Rudolph - Deep-league Only

SIgned late in the offseaon, Henry has looked like a credible threat to overake Cameron Brate as the club's main tight end. That role has been the source of plenthy of fantasy production from Tom Brady, so view Rudolph as a solid late-round add in TE Premium formats.

TE Cade Otton - Dynasty Only

Over four seasons in college, Otton caught 91 passes for 1,026 yards and nine touchdowns on 124 targets. His best output came in his sophomore year (32/344/2). He has a lot to prove in his rookie season.

TE Ko Kieft - Not Draft Worthy

Tampa added Kieft in the 2022 NFL Draft (sixth round). He finished his college career with only 12 catches for 166 yards and two touchdowns, suggesting his best value will come in blocking.

Other Options: Codey McElroy, Ben Beise, J.J. Howland

PK Ryan Succop - Solid/Safe Pick

Succop made 86.9% of his 61 field goal chances for Tampa over the last two years. His leg has had limited range (1-for-4 from 50 yards or more and 14 for 23 from 40 to 49 yards) since 2019. The Bucs brought in Jose Borregales to compete for the starting job. They will also have an open eye on any other potential kickers cut by other franchises over the summer.

Fantasy outlook: I have no interest in rostering or playing Succop in 2022 despite Tampa projecting to have a high-scoring offense. At the same time, a fantasy drafter should pay attention to the winner of their kicking job.

Tampa Bay - Solid/Safe Pick

The Buccaneers dipped to third defending the run (1,573 yards) while allowing 11 touchdowns and 11 runs over 20 yards. Ball carriers gained 4.3 yards per rush, with offenses only attempting 21.5 runs per game.

Tampa repeated their 21st ranking in passing yards allowed (4,062) yards with only 26 touchdowns and 17 interceptions. Quarterbacks gained 6.4 yards per pass attempt with 55 catches over 20 yards. Their defense had 47 sacks.

Their secondary has a question mark at one safety position while Antonio Winfield developed into a top player over his two seasons in the NFL. He excels in run support and pass coverage. Their starting cornerbacks want to allow short yards per catch with the goal of improving when the ball moves into the red zone.

LB Shaquill Barrett continues to be their top passes rusher (37.5 sacks over his last 46 starts) while also adding value against the run. The Bucs have top talent at linebacker, but Lavonte David is on the back nine of his career. Devon White and Joe Tryon-Shoyinka have high ceilings after getting drafted in the first round in 2019 and 2021.

DT Vita Vea had a step back in play against the run. His job is to clog up the middle of the line while showing growth in attacking the quarterback. The defensive end position falls on the development of Logan Hall and a bridge season by Akiem Hicks.

The Buccaneers' defense has seven competitive pieces with a recent history of slowing down the run and getting average the quarterback. In the NFFC, they rank second behind the Bills in the early draft season. I'm concerned with their direction against the run, which more rushing attempts may expose.