Detroit Lions

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The Detroit Lions finished last in the NFC North over the past four seasons with a 17-36-2 record. Despite the appearance of a bottom-tier offense, the Lions have some exciting players entering 2022. RB D'Andre Swift has the potential to be one of the top receiving backs in the league while offering explosiveness and scoring in the run game. WR Amon-Ra St. Brown developed into a high-volume beast late last season, and follow-through should be expected this season. In addition, the combination of WR DJ Chark and WR Jameson Williams improves Detroit's deep passing game. TE T.J. Hockenson is a developing edge, leaving the ceiling of this offense in the hands of QB Jared Goff.

Offense

Game scored led to the Lions throwing the ball 58.1% of the time last season. They have depth across the board at the receiver positions, but Detroit needs to run the ball better to control the clock.

QB Jared Goff - Quality Backup

In his first season with the Lions, Goff went 3-10-1 with three missed games with oblique and knee issues. He was on pace for 4,000 combined yards and 23 touchdowns while showing strength in his completion rate (67.2). His weakness came in his yards per pass attempt (6.6), which regressed for the third straight year.

Goff passed for over 300 yards in only one matchup (338/3) in Week 1. Over his final 12 games, he had fewer than 225 passing yards in eight contests.

When at his best with the Rams from 2017 to 2020, Goff went 42-20 with a trip to the Super Bowl in 2018. In 2019, he led the NFL in pass attempts (626).

Fantasy outlook: Based on weapons in the passing game, Goff should throw the ball over 600 times this year. To reach a higher ceiling in passing yards, he needs more length on his completions plus improve tossing touchdowns in the red zone. Goff ranks 27th in the draft early season in the Fantasy Football World Championship. I view him as a top 18 quarterback while on a path for 4,500 combined yards with about 28 scores.

Other options: Tom Boyle, David Blough

RB Jermar Jefferson - Not Draft Worthy

Over three seasons at Oregon State, Jefferson gained 3,222 combined yards with 29 touches and 43 catches. His best season came in 2018 (239/1,380/12 with 25 catches for 147 yards). In 2020, Covid limited his year to six games (133/858/7), which gave him a chance at 1,800 combined yards with 14 touchdowns and 18 catches.

Jefferson has a power running style that works better when seeing daylight at the line of scrimmage. His flow and vision create wins, but dead ends leave him with no escape routes. He needs volume of chances to get his engine warmed up. Jefferson should bring closing value with the ability to make defenders miss in the open field. His pass protection looks ahead of his pass-catching.

He gained 97 combined yards in his rookie season with two touchdowns and four catches on 19 touches. Jefferson missed some development time with an ankle injury.

Fantasy outlook: Jefferson would be the power runner replacement with short-yardage and goal-line value if Jamaal Williams has an injury. He will be found in the free-agent pool in almost all leagues this draft season.

Other Options: Justin Jackson, Craig Reynolds, Godwin Igwebuike, Greg Bell

RB D'Andre Swift - Stud (low risk)

Over his first two seasons with the Lions, Swift has eight missed games. In 2021, he was on pace for 1,398 yards with nine touchdowns and 81 catches (274.8 fantasy points in PPR leagues). His missed time came from a shoulder injury while also having minimal snaps in Week 12 (three catches for nine yards).

When at his best, Swift gained over 100 combined yards in six matchups. The Lions gave him 19 touches per game over his first 10 starts. Detroit had him over the field for 73% of their plays. His consistency rating comes from his high floor in catches (six games with five catches or more).

Fantasy outlook: The two most important factors to consider when evaluating Swift are the potential improvement of this offense and how this coaching staff used the running back position in New Orleans. With an entire season of games, he has a chance at 300 touches for 1,700 yards with 10 scores and 85 catches or a top-six running back. Swift is the ninth running back drafted in the FFWC in mid-June with an ADFP of 15. I'm buying while understanding his injury risk.

FULLTIME'S TAKE: Swift is a legitimate BREAKOUT CANDIDATE. We could see him finishing as the top back overall in 2022. Draft him with confidence.

RB Jamaal Williams - Fantasy Handcuff

The Lions used Williams 179 times over his 13 games (13.8 per week). He set a career-high in rushing yards (601) while showing weakness in yards per carry (3.9) and yards per catch (6.0). He missed four games with thigh, hip, and Covid-19 issues. Williams posted his best output in Week 1 (110 combined yards with one touchdown and eight catches). Detroit gave him three targets or fewer in 11 of his final 12 matchups while scoring less than 10.00 fantasy points in PPR leagues in nine games.

Fantasy outlook: Williams should get about 12 touches per game, but he will be a challenging starter as an RB2 or flex player in PPR leagues. His role in the passing game has a diminishing ceiling if D'Andre Swift is healthy. Even with a favorable ADP (166) in the early draft season in the FFWC, I would only be interested in drafting him as a handcuff to Swift. Even with a possible starting role at times, the Lions will rotate in a second back. At best, 700 combined yards with short touchdowns and about 25 catches. Williams is one of the best hand-cuff backs in the game but he's a solid enough player to have stand alone value.

WR Amon-Ra St. Brown - Solid/Safe Pick

My two most critical takes about St. Brown in 2021 were his ability to get open and catch the ball. His role in the Lions' offense was minimal in most of his first 11 games (39/352 on 52 targets). Detroit shifted the bulk of their passing attack to St. Brown over the last six games (10/86/1, 8/73, 8/90/1, 9/91/1, 8/111/1, and 8/109/1) while receiving double-digit targets (67 total) in each contest. He finished with an impressive catch rate (75.6).

St. Brown brings early rhythm to his route running that projects better out of the slot. His release is better than expected, but he does lose value when locked up early by bigger physical defenders. St. Brown doesn't win with his quickness and has subpar long speed. With better technique and more strength, he would offer much more upside.

He played well over 30 games at USC. He caught 178 of his 249 targets for 2,270 yards and 17 touchdowns. His best success came in 2019 (77/1,042/6).

Fantasy outlook: With 150 targets, St. Brown would be on a path to catch 110 passes for 1,100 yards and about seven scores. He finished 22nd in wide receiver scoring (227.30 fantasy points). Despite his impactful run late in the year, his ADP (57) in the FFWC ranked him as the 21st wideout. My projections will rank him as a top 12 wide receiver, and I consider him almost the same player as Keenan Allen while getting drafted two rounds later. St. Brown is an excellent value selection in 2022.

WR D.J. Chark - Sleeper (undervalued)

Coming out of college, Chark had a minimal resume (66/1,351/6) in the receiving game over three seasons.

In 2019, Chark proved to be a value on draft day or a quick waiver wire pickup after his fast start to the year over five games (27/485/5 on 37 targets). Chark flashed in Week 1 (4/146/1) while offering two other impact games (8/164/2 and 8/104/2). However, over his final five starts, he only caught 22 passes for 212 yards with no touchdowns.

After his breakout season (73/1,008/8), Chark struggled to make an impact in seven starts in 2020 (3/16, 1/26, 4/56, 4/41, 2/41, 2/16, and 4/53) while also missing three contests with chest, ankle, and ribs issues. His best play came in two matchups (8/95/2 and 7/146/1). Last year, Chark played well in two of his first three matchups (3/86/1 and 3/49/1), but his season ended in Week 4 with a broken ankle.

Fantasy outlook: Chark gained over 20 yards on 30 of his 133 catches (22.6%) over the past three seasons while scoring 15 times in 32 games. His ADP (147) in the FFWC prices him as the 55th wide receiver drafted in mid-June. He is a viable WR5 in PPR formats with a chance to catch 65 passes for 850 yards with five to seven touchdowns.

WR Jameson Williams - Gamble (high risk)

Ohio State gave Williams only 15 catches for 266 yards and three scores in his freshman and sophomore seasons, leading to him transferring to Alabama. The change of scenery unlocked a beast of a season (79/1,572/15). Williams had four explosive showings (10/160/1, 6/158/3, 8/190/3, and 7/184/2) over a five-game stretch. From Week 10 to 13, he gained an impressive 25.0 yards per catch (23/575/8). Unfortunately, Williams suffered a torn ACL in his left knee in early January.

The excitement of Williams as a home run threat is real. He blows by deep coverage with the wheels to turn a short pass into a long scoring play. His challenge is improving his release and developing his usage over the short areas of the field. Williams brings excellent hands while needing to get stronger. Two of the top five receivers in this year's draft class played in front of him at Ohio State.

Fantasy Outlook: I'm never a fan of players coming off significant injuries. I expect him to be slow out of the gate, but Williams does have enough time to get almost healthy by the start of the season. Fantasy drafters rate him virtually the same as DJ Chark in the FFWC (ADP – 145) as they coin flip over the Lions' best WR2 option. Until I have a better timetable of his return date, I'm starting his projections at 50 catches for 750 yards with a handful of scores, but he could be significantly below that if his recovery is slowed.

WR Quintez Cephus - Not Draft Worthy

Cephus has a tight end feel in speed (4.7 forth) and plenty of strength (23 reps in the bench press at the NFL combine in 2020) while fitting more into a running back's body. His hands grade well, but he needs to clean up his release in press coverage and develop his route running to earn more playing time at the next level. With the ball in his hands, he'll gain extra yards.

The Lions looked his way 35 times in his rookie season, leading to 20 catches for 349 yards and two touchdowns. His best two games came in Week 13 (2/63/1) and Week 17 (2/51/1). Cephus had three playable fantasy games (3/12/1, 4/63/1, and 4/83) over the first five weeks of 2021. Unfortunately, his season ended in Week 5 with a broken collarbone.

Fantasy outlook: The Lions should give him a chance to win their WR3 job over the summer while working as a placeholder until Jameson Williams is fully healthy. For now, Cephus doesn't offer any fantasy value.

Other Options: Josh Reynolds, Kalif Raymond, Trinity Benson

TE T.J. Hockenson - Solid/Safe Pick

After setting career-highs in all areas in 2020 (67/723/6 on 101 targets), Hockenson busted out of the gate last season over the first two weeks (8/97/1 and 8/66/1). Defenses shut him down over the next three games (2/10, 4/42, and 2/22). Other than a no-catch game in Week 10 on one target, Hockenson delivered six competitive games (8/74, 6/48, 10/89, 6/51, 3/35/1, and 4/49/1). A broken left thumb ended his year after Week 13.

Over his past 28 games, Hockenson had 128 catches for 1,306 yards and 10 touchdowns over 185 targets, or 11.38 fantasy points per game in PPR leagues.

Fantasy outlook: Fantasy drafters have him priced (6th tight end) right in mid-June in the FFWC (ADP of 74). The debate on his value in 2022 fails on how much of his injury helped Amon-Ra St. Brown late last year, and will Hockenson regain some of those chances? Possible 75 catches for 850 yards with mid-level scoring.

Other Options: Brock Wright, James Mitchell, Devin Funchess

PK Austin Seibert - Not Draft Worthy

The field goal job for Detriot this season looks to be a battle between Riley Patterson and Austin Seibert. The Lions scored 35 touchdowns in 2021 while creating 30 field goal chances. The winner of this kicking battle should be found in the free-agent pool in most leagues all year. A case could be made for either kicker, and Detroit should score more in 2022, leading to possible matchup value.

Detroit - Not Draft Worthy

The Lions repeated their 28th ranking in rushing yards allowed (2,296) with 19 touchdowns and seven runs over 20 yards. Runners gained 4.4 yards per rush while averaging 30.5 rushers per game.

Detroit bumped to 24th in passing yards allowed (4,160) with 31 touchdowns and 11 interceptions. Their defense finished with only 30 sacks while allowing 56 catches over 20 yards.

Not one starting player graded highly on the Lions' defense in 2021. Their top young CB Jeff Okudah missed 23 games over his first two seasons after getting drafted third overall in 2020. This year, he must stay on the field and play up to his potential. Their secondary has a lot to prove. CB Tracy Walker finished with 108 tackles, leading to Detroit signing him to a three-year $25 million contract in March. Derrick Barnes looks to have the highest ceiling at linebacker. Their defensive line has upside at three positions while needing DE Aidan Hutchinson to develop into a stud pass rusher.

This defense has some pieces to push higher up in the rankings. A better offense would help control the clock and lower Detroit's defensive exposure. I expect growth in all areas, giving the Lions a chance to be league-average with matchup value.