Detroit Lions
By Jody Smith, Friday, July 26, 2024 |
In Detroit, the 'Lovable Losers' moniker has been replaced by a sense of bravado courtesy of head coach Dan Campbell. Last season, the Lions maintained a three-score lead at halftime of the NFC title game before coming up short. In 2024, there is an uncharacteristic sense of optimism in The Motor City, and that means good things for fantasy football fans. QB Jared Goff isn't viewed as a top-tier fantasy option. But Goff has been one of the best values on the board for consecutive seasons. Goff has posted back-to-back top-10 fantasy finishes. In those two campaigns, Goff has averaged 4,506 passing yards with 31 total touchdowns. In 2024, the Lions have a favorable strength of schedule and will once again trot out a very fantasy-friendly supporting cast. Goff is an excellent mid-round draft target for fantasy managers who bypass the elite signal-callers. Detroit returns their dynamic duo backfield that ranked third in rushing in 2023. Jahmyr Gibbs was every bit the stud rookie that we projected last season, posting top-10 fantasy numbers despite missing a pair of games. Gibbs ranked eighth with 71 targets and scored 11 TDs in 15 games. The second-year superstar is a high-upside RB1 in 2024. Backfield mate David Montgomery also posted fantasy RB1 numbers. He won't catch as many passes, but Montgomery topped 1,000 rushing yards and punched in a healthy 13 scores. It's fair to expect Gibbs to command a bigger share of the touches this season but Montgomery remains a solid mid-round target. Amon-Ra St. Brown ranked third in the league in targets (164) and receptions (119) and scored a career-high 10 touchdowns. St. Brown's nine games with 100-plus yards led the league, making the fourth-year superstar a locked-in first-round fantasy selection. Pairing him with Goff is easily achievable on draft day and is a savvy move. The Lions did not address wide receiver in the draft. That makes 2024 a make-or-break campaign for Jameson Williams. The third-year WR must develop more short and intermediate route usage but still offers a ton of sleeper appeal. Kalif Raymond is also a late-round sleeper to keep in mind. Sam LaPorta was a record-setting rookie tight end shoots to the top of the 2024 TE ranks. LaPorta led the position with 10 touchdown grabs- 40% more than any other player mustered. He won't sneak up on anyone in Year Two, but LaPorta is Detroit's number two pass-catcher and is one of the safest bets on draft day. The Lions are favorites to repeat as NFC North champs and have a roster loaded with fantasy talent at each position. This is no longer a team to fade on draft day. Instead, it's one to embrace. QB Jared Goff - Quality BackupSavvy fantasy managers know that Goff has posted consecutive top-10 fantasy finishes in Detroit. However, Goff is regularly disregarded on draft day. In that span, Goff averaged 4506 passing yards and 30.5 touchdowns. In 2023, Goff was PFF's sixth-graded passer while completing a career-high 67.3% of his throws. He doesn't offer much as a runner, but Goff is an excellent fit in Ben Johnson's offense. The Lions also have surrounded Goff with elite weapons at all three positions. That makes building a Lions stack quite desirable. And quite easy looking at Goff's early ADP. View the 29-year-old veteran as a superlative value pick, with QB1 potential this season. ADVICE: Excellent QB2 value pick for managers who wait on QB RB Jahmyr Gibbs - Stud (low risk)A favorite among analysts last summer, Jahmyr Gibbs lived up to the hype, posting RB8 points-per-game numbers (16.3) and finishing with weekly RB1 or RB2 numbers in 10 of his 15 games. Gibbs did rack up 25.1 points per contest when David Montgomery was sidelined but still proved to be a valuable contributor in a timeshare. He out-targeted Montgomery 71-24 and still had a healthy 45 red-zone opportunities (9 TD). Detroit didn't add to their receiving corps this spring so expect Gibbs to play a larger role as both a runner and receiver. He's the perfect fit in Ben Johnson's offense and as a fantasy RB1. ADVICE: Stud RB1 in all formats RB David Montgomery - Solid/Safe PickMontgomery was averaging 22 carries per game before missing three games with a rib injury. When he returned, Jahmyr Gibbs commanded a bigger piece of the pie, but Montgomery remained an effective RB2. Montgomery scored an NFC-best 13 rushing touchdowns on a career-best 4.6 yards per tote. The Lions know they have an effective duo and will lean on their backfield more than ever with uncertainty at wide receiver. He won't see as many targets as Gibbs, but Montgomery will have a reliable role as the early-down runner and short-yardage option. That assures that he remains a solid RB2 to target in the middle rounds. ADVICE: Reliable scorer with a safe floor WR Amon-Ra St. Brown - Stud (low risk)St. Brown produced 10 weekly WR1 finishes and three WR2 performances in 16 games. He only had one game all season with fewer than 12 fantasy points, making him one of the most reliable options in the game. The overall WR3 for the season, St. Brown averaged 10.3 targets per game in Detroit's No. 2 ranked passing attack. Josh Reynolds and his 64 targets are gone and the Lions didn't add a replacement. St. Brown will continue to be one of the most heavily-targeted wideouts in the league and is poised to remain a top-5 option with a favorable schedule. ADVICE: One of the safest bets on draft day WR Jameson Williams - Gamble (high risk)The Lions showed faith in Jameson Williams by allowing Josh Reynolds and his 64 targets to walk. That sets up Williams to be Detroit's undisputed No. 2 wideout in his third season. Williams started to flash his potential in the second half of 2023. He was employed mostly as a deep threat, but Williams ranked fifth with a 15.6 average depth of target and excelled in contested catch situations, where he reeled in six of eight targets. Detroit is counting on Williams to play a significant role as an every-down player. With a full slate of 17 games, Williams has the look of a Year Three breakout. ADVICE: In-line for an expanded role as an every-down player with weekly WR3 upside, but he must prove he can develop into a consistent every-down option. WR Kalif Raymond - Super Sleeper (high risk/potential)For the third year in a row, Raymond posted top 70 WR numbers. Yet, he's going undrafted in nearly every format. With Josh Reynolds gone, Raymond appears to have Detroit's No. 3 wideout role secured, making him an under-the-radar late-round target as WR depth in deep leagues. ADVICE: Target late as a late-round Stash-N-Cash. TE Sam LaPorta - Stud (low risk)LaPorta broke the mold of first-year struggles for NFL tight ends. LaPorta scored the most fantasy points by a rookie tight end in 62 years, catching 86-of-120 targets for 889 yards and a position-leading 10 touchdowns. He posted top-5 metrics in most fantasy-relevant categories and became one of the top value picks of the 2023 season. This year, Detroit focused on improving their defense in the 2024 NFL Draft, so LaPorta will retain his monster target share and could run even more snaps out of the slot than last year's 177. He's the top tight end to target in every format. ADVICE: The real deal. LaPorta should be the first tight end selected in every fantasy draft PK Mike Badgley - Not Draft WorthyBadgley will enter camp as the favorite to retain Detroit's place-kicking job. Last year, he succeeded on all four of his FG attempts in four games for Detroit, while chipping in 13-of-15 extra points.Detroit also brought in Jake Bates, who showcased a monster leg in the UFL. Whoever wins the Lions' kicking job should be on the fantasy radar as a potential top-10 fantasy option, but will have a short leash. UPDATE: Badgley was injured in July and was placed on season-ending IR. PK Jake Bates - Bye Week Fill-inBates showcased a ton of distance and power in the UFL. With Michael Badgley (hamstring) placed on IR, Bates will compete with the veteran kicker carousel for kicking duties in Detroit. Detroit - Not Draft WorthyDan Campbell's primary focus was fortifying the defensive side of the ball. Detroit's first two picks in the 2024 NFL Draft were in the secondary, which ranked 27th versus the pass in 2023. Campbell also added DT Mekhi Wingo and used a pair of picks on the offensive line. The Lions should be better but should be left on the waiver wire until we see how the new faces fare. |