Baltimore Ravens
By Jody Smith, Wednesday, June 19, 2024 |
Baltimore finished sixth in offense and defense in 2023, but another disappointing playoff loss saw the top-seeded Ravens ousted in the AFC Championship. Even after leading the league in rushing, there will be wholesale changes to Baltimore's offense in 2024. QB Lamar Jackson's first season in Todd Monken's offense was a success. Jackson completed a career-best 67.2% of his attempts and set a personal best with 3,678 passing yards. On a per-game basis, Jackson rushed less than he was accustomed to but still led the position with 821 yards on the ground. In all, Jackson finished fourth in fantasy scoring despite being the centerpiece of a run-first offense. The Ravens have only produced one 1000-yard wide receiver during Jackson's tenure. Finding weapons to restore balance to Baltimore's attack would go a long way. Second-year WR Zay Flowers is the logical choice to join Marquise Brown as Jackson's next 1000-yard wideout. Flowers led the Ravens in targets (108), catches (77), and yards (858) during his rookie campaign. Flowers began to assert himself as a legit No. 1 receiver during the playoff drive. He is a strong breakout candidate with top-20 upside. After Flowers, things are more uncertain. Rashod Bateman is a candidate to see an increased role, but Bateman hasn't been able to stay healthy or live up to his first-round billing. The Ravens also added Devontez Walker from North Carolina with a fourth-round pick in the 2024 NFL Draft. Walker boasts 4.36 speed and will compete with Bateman and Nelson Agholor for WR3 snaps. TE Mark Andrews remains the best bet to lead the club in targets and touchdown grabs. Andrews ranked fifth in PPR points per game but missed nearly half the campaign with an ankle injury. An Andrews/Jackson stack is among the top contrarian builds to exit your draft with. Third-year TE Isiah Likely faired well when Andrews was sidelined. Given Baltimore's lack of depth in the receiving corps, expecting Monken to utilize 12 sets more often than last year's 11.1% (27th in the league) seems like a good bet. When the NFL's top-ranked rushing attack adds a stud fantasy option like Derrick Henry, fantasy managers should take notice. Henry is showing signs of slowing down. However, he is an elite touchdown scorer and a strong bet to lead the league in that category in 2024. He won't catch a ton of passes in this offense, but Henry looks like a good bet for 1,200 rushing yards and 12-14 scores. The Ravens will remain a run-heavy offense that features a potential top-10 player at three positions and a sophomore wideout that could break out in a big way. QB Lamar Jackson - Stud (low risk)Year One in Todd Monken's offense resulted in the finest passing season of Lamar Jackson's career. Jackson set career-best numbers in attempts (457), completions (307), completion rate (67.2%), and yards (3,678). He also remained one of the position's most potent rushing threats, leading all quarterbacks with 821 yards and an additional five scores on the ground. Baltimore doesn't have the deepest receiving corps, but the addition of RB Derrick Henry will further help open things up downfield for a Ravens offense that led the league in rushing last season and ranked fourth in points. Since entering the league, Jackson's rushing production has given him a safe floor behind an elite offensive line. ADVICE: Elite starter with top-3 upside RB Derrick Henry - Stud (low risk)What do you get when you plug the league's most prolific touchdown scorer into an offense that has been top 3 in rushing in each of the past seven seasons? The favorite to lead the NFL in rushing scores this season. Baltimore rushed for 20 touchdowns last season- 15 of which came inside the 5-yard line. Lamar Jackson actually doesn't run much in that area, but Derrick Henry will. Henry, 30, has seen his yards per rush average dip but running behind Baltimore's line will help. He won't catch many passes, either, but Henry looks like a screaming value with elite scoring upside even if he won't catch many passes. ADVICE: Excellent hero RB target with elite TD potential RB Justice Hill - Bye Week Fill-inADVICE: Hill had his moments in 2023, earning a career-best 112 touches. However, nearly half of his output came in three outlier games. With Derrick Henry now in Baltimore, Hill remains a pass-catching specialist likely to see a reduction in usage upon Keaton Mitchell's return. RB Keaton Mitchell - Bye Week Fill-inMitchell looked like a real difference-maker down the stretch, leading all running backs with 5.68 yards after contact per attempt and rushing for an unreal 8.4 yards per carry. But a Week 15 torn ACL casts some doubts on his early-season availability. ADVICE: Mitchell is a candidate to open the season on the PUP list, but once he's fully up to speed, he offers a ton of big-play potential Injury Status: Injured ReserveWR Zay Flowers - Sleeper (undervalued)BREAKOUT CANDIDATE: Flowers is in prime position to be the first 1000-yard wide receiver in Baltimore since Marquise Brown back in 2021. In his rookie season, Flowers ranked 31st in weekly fantasy points and racked up 6.8 targets per game. Flowers is a playmaker who ranked 15th in yards after catch and seventh in generating target separation. Odell Beckham and his 68 targets are gone and the Ravens didn't address wide receiver until the fourth round. Flowers is the unquestioned No. 1 receiver in a Ravens' offense that ran 63.2 plays per game last season- 15th in the league. ADVICE: Flowers is in a position to top 120 targets and surpass 1,000 receiving yards WR Nelson Agholor - Low PotentialADVICE: The Ravens are passing more than they used to and Agholor looks to have a secure role as a top-3 wideout. However, his yards per catch and fantasy production have dropped four straight seasons. He's little more than an end-of-roster bye-week option. WR Rashod Bateman - Low PotentialADVICE: Bateman is projected to see a few more opportunities in his fourth season but there is nothing to indicate that he will develop into a reliable fantasy contributor. He's little more than depth who will catch about 40 balls for 450 yards and 1-2 touchdowns. WR Devontez Walker - Dynasty OnlyADVICE: A fourth-round rookie out of North Carolina with good size and speed, Walker projects to open his career as the fourth wideout in Baltimore. There isn't a lot of proven talent in front of Walker, so he could emerge as a big-play WR6 at some point in Year One. TE Mark Andrews - Stud (low risk)Andrews was TE4 before a Week 4 ankle injury torpedoed his season. Before that, Andrews had complied four consecutive top-4 finishes, averaging just under 14 fantasy points per contest. Looking ahead to 2024, Andrews will remain a key player in the Baltimore passing attack and is projected to be one of the tight ends selected in fantasy drafts. He's locked into the top-tier of tight ends set to continue to put up stellar production for a Ravens' offense that faces the NFL's fourth-easiest schedule in 2024. ADVICE: Tier One tight end that will continue to produce top-3 fantasy numbers in fantasy's thinnest position. An Andrews/Lamar stack is (chef's kiss emoji). TE Isaiah Likely - Bye Week Fill-inADVICE: Likely can step in and be a TE1 if Mark Andrews misses time but may not play consistent enough snaps to be fantasy-relevant all year PK Justin Tucker - Solid/Safe PickTucker has been one of the best and most reliable kickers in NFL history. He continues to boast an accurate and powerful leg and is afforded plenty of distance opportunities in Baltimore's offense. He should be a top-3, if not PK1, selection in every draft. Baltimore - Solid/Safe PickFantasy's No. 1 scoring defense last season, the Ravens posted another top-5 overall defensive season in the NFL. This included first in yards-per-play, first in scoring, and leading the NFL with 60 sacks. Baltimore remains an elite unit that will generate a ton of sacks and turnovers. |