New York Jets
|By Shawn Childs, Tuesday, August 20, 2019|
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Last year the Jets ran the ball 43.9 percent of the time, which is a number they hope to increase in 2019 with Le'Veon Bell added to the roster. New York needs to control the ball on offense while improving on defense. Game score will be crucial to the value of their passing attack. It will be easy for a Fantasy owner to overrate their run game based on one star RB added to the team. The lack of star options in the passing game will allow defenses to be aggressive defending the run.
QB Luke Falk - Solid/Safe Pick
Update 09/22/19The Jets will be playing their third-string QB vs. a Patriots’ defense that allowed only three points in two games. So far, QBs passed for 462 yards and no TDs in two games with eight sacks and five Ints. Falk played well over three seasons at Washington State leading to over 12,500 yards with 109 TDs and 32 Ints. His completion rate projects well. Not ideal, but he does have some game with plenty of experience throwing the ball.
QB Sam Darnold - Sleeper (undervalued)
Update 12/29/19Based on the better lin of Sunday, the Bills will rest many of their starters, which gives Darnold a much better chance of success. If this game meant something, he would be a lousy start with Buffalo ranking 2nd in the league defending the QB position (15.81 FPPG). Over his previous four games, Darnold passed for 910 yards with five TDs and two Ints. His best play of the year came in Week 6 (338/2), Week 11 (293/4), and Week 12 (315/2). The Jets’ offense remains weak, and the Bills won’t score a lot of points in this matchup. More trap than temptation.
RB Elijah McGuire - Fantasy Handcuff
Over four seasons at Louisiana-Lafayette, Elijah rushed for 4,301 yards with 42 rushing TDs. His yards per rush declined in each season (8.4, 7.6, 5.0, and 4.9) despite rising rushes (103, 166, 209, and 232). He finished with 130 catches for 1,394 yards and another 10 TDs with declining value in his yards per catch (17.5, 10.4, 8.9, and 8.2) in each season as well. He did play through a foot injury in 2016 that limited his explosiveness.
Overall, he needs to improve his ability to pick up the blitz before playing on early downs. McGuire has more speed than short area quickness while needing to improve his vision and decision making. In his rookie season, Elijah had 105 touches for 492 combined yards with two TDs and 17 catches. He gained only 3.6 yards per rush while showing explosiveness in the passing game (10.4 yards per catch). Last year he missed the first eight games with a foot injury. The Jets featured him over previous four games of the season, which led to 304 combined yards with four TDs and 11 catches helping some fortunate Fantasy owners to overall prizes in the season-long contests.
Even with his bump in chances (19.5 per game), McGuire gained only 2.7 yards per rush. The change in RB structure in New York pushes Elijah to a bench warmer on most plays while waiting for an injury to be rewarded with more chances.
RB Le'Veon Bell - Stud (low risk)
Update 12/29/19Last week Bell has a season-high in rushing attempts (25), but he gained only 72 yards with short value in the passing game (4/21). He’s gained fewer than 90 yards rushing in each game in 2019 with only three TDs. His highlight game in Fantasy points (23.20) came in Week 1 vs. the Bills. Bell sits 15th in RB scoring (13.55 PFFG) with 20.7 touches per game. He gains only 3.3 yards per rush with no runs over 20 yards. Buffalo ranks 14th in RB defense (23.70 FPPG) with two bad games (47.30 and 36.70 Fantasy points). The Bills will rest their starters, which helps Bell. Even so, I can’t trust his ability to make big plays or score TDs.
RB Ty Montgomery - Deep-league Only
One wrong decision on a kick return led to Montgomery getting traded mid-season to the Ravens. He finished the year with 41 rushes for 188 yards and one TD while gaining 4.6 yards per rush. Ty had a lower catch rate (60) for a RB, but he did gain 9.4 yards per catch (25/235). His game offered the most upside in 2016 with the Packers when he gained 805 combined yards with three TDs and 44 catches on 121 touches. Montgomery is a former WR, which makes him a viable option in the passing game if New York decides to use him in different ways. This season Ty will compete with Elijah McGuire for the backup role with the Jets. The winner will receive minimal chances unless Le'Veon Bell gets injured.
WR Robby Anderson - Solid/Safe Pick
Update 12/29/19Coming into Week 17, Anderson has a calf issue, but he expects to play on Sunday. He scored a TD in four of his past six games while adding productive stats over the previous five contests (24/402/3 on 36 targets). His best two games came in Week 6 (5/125/1) and Week 14 (7/117/1). In Week 1, the Bills held him to three catches for 23 yards. Buffalo ranks well in WR defense (28.87 FPPG – 4th), but they won’t play their best players in this game. Playing much better while receiving only 5.9 targets per game. I expect low passing attempts, which points to a weaker game than needing to fill his salary bucket.
WR Jamison Crowder - Gamble (high risk)
Update 12/29/19In Week 15, most Fantasy owners rushed to bench Crowder unless they didn’t have another option. He ended up having his best game (6/90/2) of the year, which came after three empty performances (2/18, 2/8, and 3/29). In Week 16, he caught four of his eight targets for 60 yards. Crowder played well from Week 9 to Week 11 (8/83/1, 5/81/1, and 5/76/1) while also shining in Week 1 (14/99 vs. the bills). On the year, he averages 7.5 targets per game. Only a steady option.
WR Quincy Enunwa - Sleeper (undervalued)
Over the first four games in 2019, Enunwa looked to be on pace for a breakout season after catching 21 of his 36 targets for 278 yards and one TD. An ankle injury led to six missed games and lost value in his other seven starts (17/171/0 on 32 targets). In his best season in 2016, Quincy flashed upside when he caught 58 of his 105 targets for 857 yards and four TDs. His size (6'2' and 225 lbs.) is an edge. This season he needs to improve on his catch rate (55.9). Possible breakout, but the Jets have more options in the passing game in 2019. A chance at a 60/900 season with a handful of TDs.
TE Chris Herndon - Quality Backup
Over three seasons at Miami in college, Herndon had 86 catches for 1,048 yards and seven TDs. His best year came in 2017 (40/477/4) despite missing a couple of games. Chris will threaten defenses in the deep passing game while needing to improve his route running. His hands remain in question while offering the quickness to beat defenses in the open field or off the line of scrimmage. In his rookie season, Herndon started 12 games leading to 39 catches for 502 yards and four TDs on 56 targets. He scored a TD in three straight games while delivering one strong game (6/82/1). Last year, the Jets' TEs caught 67 passes for 735 yards and four TDs on 101 targets. This season Chris looks poised to catch 55+ balls for 600+ yards and growth in TDs.
TE Ryan Griffin - Solid/Safe Pick
Update 11/30/19Ryan has been a Fantasy thing for the last month or so when he produced a couple of impact games (4/66/2 and 5/109/1) for his lower salary. Over his recent five-game period, he caught 19 passes for 236 yards and four TDs on 21 targets. Even with his success, he averaged only 5.2 targets per game. The Bengals are 15th in TE defense (11.77 FPPG – 46/596/4 on 63 targets) with three poor showings (9/121, 12/151/2, and 7/86/1). His recent path forces daily owners into a quandary – fact or fiction. Call him a maybe based on his matchup, but his high impact game last week invites failure in Week 13.
PK Chandler Catanzaro - Bye Week Fill-in
Last year Catanzaro played in 13 games for two different teams. He made 16 of his 20 field goals with all three from 50 yards or more going through the uprights. Chandler did miss on five of his 35 field goals. Over his first four seasons in the NFL, he made 84.4 percent of his field goals. The Jets scored 34 TDs in 2018 while creating plenty of field goal chances (36). New York should move the ball this year, which gives Catanzaro to be playable in multiple games in the Fantasy market.
New York - Quality Backup
New York finished 26th defending the run (2,021) with 16 TDs and a league-high 24 runs over 20 yards. Ball carriers gained 4.6 yards per carry. Their pass defense ranked 24th (4,065 yards) while allowing 29 TDs and picking up 13 Ints. They ended up with 39 sacks.
The best player on the Jets' defense in 2018 was S Jamal Adams. His best value came in coverage plus rushing the QB. Adam is a slight edge in run support with success in his tackling. Jamal is a former first-round draft pick (2017). S Marcus Maye missed ten games last year with shoulder and thumb injuries. When on the field, he played well in all areas. Maye reads the QB well, but the best QBs in the NFL will set him up for mistakes. Marcus has an excellent feel for the game with his judgment being one of his better assets while having enough physical talent to add value against the run. His game will offer more upside with some coaching to minimize his mistake in decision making in coverage.
CB Trumaine Johnson held his own in coverage with add value in run support. He missed six games with a quad injury. Johnson tends to be a league average player with some struggles making plays in tackling. CB Darryl Roberts has made slight improvements in his three years in the NFL, but his risk comes in pass coverage. The Jets lack the talent on the depth chart to offer strength at the second CB slot.
LB Avery Williamson played well over the last two seasons. His best value comes vs. the run. He finished with a career-high 120 tackles with three sacks and six defended passes. LB C.J. Mosley should be a steady option in run support, but he can be beaten in the passing game. LB Jachai Polite will work as a rotational pass rusher while needing to prove value vs. the run. LB Jordan Jenkins set a career high in sacks (7) while working as an attacking player from the outside. His tackle total ranks poorly while showing improvement vs. the run in 2019.
LB Darron Lee picked up 74 tackles with three Ints and five defended passes. Lee is a former first-round pick (2016). He has a nice combination of speed and quickness with excellent vision and anticipation. Lee doesn't have the ideal size (6'1' and 232 lbs.) plus he needs to add more strength to win more battles at the point of contact. His style of play should work well within the Jets' defensive structure.
DE Leonard Williams saw his tackle total (43) regress for the second straight season. He adds value against the run while picking up five sacks. The Jets drafted Williams in the first round in 2015. DE Harry Anderson set a career high in both tackles (35) and sacks (7) with a plus grade defending the run. Rookie NT Quinnen Williams will bring playmaking ability to the middle of the Jets' defensive line. His value as a run defender will be in question early in his career until he adds more strength while improving his technique.
I expect improvement in New York's defense with some questions about their value against the run. The Jets will tally an increase in sacks with the center of the defense offering the most upside. Possible backup defense with value at home as a second Fantasy defense.
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