Los Angeles Chargers

With high-stakes fantasy football legend Shawn Childs anchoring Sports Illustrated's fantasy coverage, we decided to give our take on Shawn's Team Outlooks. While we won't always agree, Shawn's pedigree speaks for itself. Shawn has been a high-stakes Fantasy Football legend since 2004 when he had success in his first season (three titles and $25,000 in winnings). Childs has competed and won six-figures in all different formats – auctions, draft championships, main events, and high-dollar leagues. We dare you to find an expert who knows the NFL player pool better than Shawn Childs -- it can't be done!

Last year the Los Angeles Chargers had the best quarterback (Justin Herbert) and running back (Austin Ekeler) in the AFC West. Both players finished second overall in fantasy scoring at their positions, increasing excitement for 2022. One could argue that Herbert had been a better quarterback than Patrick Mahomes (9,618 combined yards with 80 touchdowns in 2018 and 2019) over his first two seasons (9,886 combined yards with 77 touchdowns). Keenan Allen and Mike Williams ranked 11th and 13th in wide receiver scoring. Los Angeles has developing talent at WR3 and WR4 while adding Gerald Everett at tight end. The Chargers will score plenty of points this season, but the winner of the wild west division falls on which team finished with the best defensive play.

Offense

The theme for most of the teams in the AFC West from last season was to throw the ball over 61% percent of the time with a secondary run game. The Chargers want to win by passing, and they will play in many high-scoring games this season.

QB Justin Herbert - Stud (low risk)

In his third season with the Chargers, Herbert is one big-play receiver away from being the best quarterback in the league. He finished last year with an impressive 5,316 combined yards with 41 touchdowns. His floor has been high in scoring in his first two years in the run game (55/234/5 and 63/302/3). Herbert averaged 39.5 pass attempts while gaining over 300 yards in nine matchups (337/1, 338/1, 398/4, 356/2, 382/3, 303/2, 317/3, 336/1, and 383/3). He ranked second in fantasy scoring (447.00) in four-point passing touchdown leagues with four impact games (33.65, 46.80, 35.20, 39.10, and 32.25 fantasy points).

Fantasy outlook: Herbert is the third quarterback off the board in the early draft season in the National Fantasy Football Championship. He gains his edge by ranking highly in pass attempts and scoring. The next step in his development is producing more passing scores in close. Herbert is on a path for 5,500 combined yards with a high floor (38) in touchdowns while expecting him to outscore Patrick Mahomes this season.

Other Options: Chase Daniel, Easton Stick, Brandon Peters

RB Larry Rountree - Dynasty Only

Over four seasons at Missouri, Rountree gained 4,009 combined yards with 40 touches and 47 catches on 793 touches. His highlight year came in 2018 (225/1,216/11 and 14 catches for 62 yards). He gained only 87 yards and one score on 36 rushes in his rookie season.

Rountree has a step-and-go feel while offering the ability to make defenders miss in space. However, his lack of patience leads to him running into too many dead ends. Rountree won't provide upside in the passing game.

He projects as an early-down runner with a lot to prove in his sophomore season.

Other Options: Joshua Kelley, Leddie Brown, Kevin Marks

RB Austin Ekeler - Stud (low risk)

Despite having the best season (1,558 combined yards with 20 touchdowns and 70 catches) of his five-year career, Ekeler still hasn't worked his way to a high-volume back in the run game (206/911/12). The Chargers had him on the field for only 61.1% of their plays. He produced better stats at home (955 combined yards with 14 scores and 41 catches – 24.50 FPPG in PPR leagues). Ekeler posted to impact games (33.90 and 41.50 fantasy points) while having a floor of 20.00 fantasy points in nine matchups. He finished second in fantasy scoring (346.80) with one missed game with Covid-19.

Before 2021, Ekeler scored only nine rushing touchdowns over 56 games.

Fantasy outlook: After his excellent season, Ekeler is the fourth player drafted in the NFFC in early June, ranking second at running back behind Jonathan Taylor. His ability to catch the ball set a high floor in many games, but can he repeat his success in scoring. Unfortunately, I don't see the Chargers giving him many more chances as they want to rotate in a second back. His safe floor with 17 games played would be 1,500 yards with a dozen scores and a chance at 75 catches.

RB Isaiah Spiller - Fantasy Handcuff

Over three seasons in college, Spiller had almost the same role (203, 208, and 204 touches). He rushed for over 1,000 yards in 2020 (188/1,036/9) and 2021 (179/1,011/6) while having the most success in scoring in his rookie year (174/946/10). Spiller finished his time at Texas A&M with 74 catches for 585 yards and one score. Last season he rushed for over 100 yards in six matchups.

Spiller runs with a leggy motion that tends to lead to him gearing down in space rather than sticking his foot in the ground and bursting out of a cut. With a run of steam, he can make defenders miss with change of direction moves. Texas A&M used him on many inside runs, but his wins weren't driven by power. His next step is improving his pass blocking despite having a feel on which lanes to pick up an oncoming blitzer.

Fantasy outlook: Based on his ADP (75) in April in the NFFC, fantasy drafters hoped Spiller would have landed on a team with a better chance to start. He is the 35th running back drafted in fantasy leagues in early June with an ADP of 98. His pass-catching helps his fantasy floor, but Spiller doesn't project to be a third-down back out of the gate. Instead, he will be in a split role on early downs with some value catches while being the top handcuff for Austin Ekeler.

WR Keenan Allen - Solid/Safe Pick

Over the past five years, Allen caught 509 passes for 5,918 yards and 32 touchdowns over 78 games. He averaged 6.5 catches for 76 yards and 0.41 touchdowns or 16.56 fantasy points in PPR leagues. However, his yards per catch have been low over the past two seasons (9.9 and 10.7). Allen gained over 100 yards in four contests (9/100, 4/108, 12/104, and 9/112) while failing to score more than 22.50 fantasy points.

Fantasy outlook: The best two selling points for Allen this draft season is high floor and consistency rating in catches and the developing wide receiver opportunity in the Chargers' offense. His 2022 ADP (32) in the NFFC in early June ranks him 11th at wide receiver. I'd prefer to have Allen as a steady WR2 than my lead wideout. He has 120-catch upside with a chance at 1,200 yards and about seven scores.

WR Mike Williams - Solid/Safe Pick

Justin Herbert unlocked the ceiling of Williams in 2021, but he most of his damage in four of his first five starts (8/82/1, 7/91/1, 7122/2, and 8/165/2). Over his next 11 starts, he posted three other playable games (5/97/1, 5/110, and 9/119/1). Williams set career-highs in catches (76), receiving yards (1,146), and targets (129). Over the first 56 games of his career, he averaged only 4.7 targets compared to 8.1 last season. Williams came to the NFL in 2017 as the seventh player selected in the first round. He brings upside in scoring and big-play ability (16.1 yards per catch).

Fantasy outlook: With one top-tier season on his five-year resume, Williams isn't a player many fantasy drafters have fought for in the early draft season in the NFFC (ADP – 61 as the 24th wideout). His overall skill set supports his growth, and I expect Williams to push his overall stats higher in 2022. My bar will be 80 catches for 1,200 yards with double-digit scores.

WR Josh Palmer - Sleeper (undervalued)

Palmer has flashes of upside, but his production has been empty in too many games. His route running continues to develop with a chain mover feel. Palmer brings good hands with the talent to set up defenders. His challenge comes off the line in press coverage and his long speed.

Over four seasons at Tennessee, he caught 99 of his 196 targets for 1,514 yards and seven touchdowns.

In his first year with the Chargers, Palmer gave Los Angeles good snaps off the bench (33/353/4 on 49 targets). His best output came in Week 14 (5/66/1), Week 16 (5/43/1), and Week 18 (4/45/1).

Fantasy outlook: I view Palmer as a handcuff to Keenan Allen this season. He should open up the year as the Chargers' WR3 and has a shot at being a solid weekly WR3/4 in a high-octane offense.

WR Jalen Guyton - Deep-league Only

Over the past two years with the Chargers, Guyton flashed in five games (1/72/1, 2/84/1, 4/91, 4/90/1, and 3/87/1). He has 59 catches for 959 yards and six touchdowns on 103 targets in his 32 games.

Over two seasons at North Texas, Guyton caught 103 of his 176 passes for 1,580 yards and 15 touchdowns.

Fantasy outlook: In most weeks, Guyton brings minimal fantasy value. His ability to test a defense deep gives him a higher ceiling than his overall targets (3.2 per game).

Other Options: DeAndre Carter, Jason Moore, Joe Reed

TE Gerald Everett - Sleeper (undervalued)

After four dull seasons with the Rams (16/244/2, 33/320/3, 37/408/2, and 41/417/1), Everett set career-highs in all areas in his first year with Seattle (48/478/4 on 63 targets). He missed two games early in the season with Covid-19. Over the past two years, his catch rate (71.2) has invited more chances after signing with the Chargers.

Fantasy outlook: Los Angeles will rotate in three tight ends this year, while Everett should emerge as this top receiving option. In the NFFC, he projects as a backend TE2 with a chance to catch 50 passes for 500 yards and five touchdowns.

TE Donald Parham - Deep-league Only

Parham was flashing some major red-zone chemsitry with Justin Herbert in training camp before a hamstring injury. Considering Parham's frame (6-8, 255), he would make an excellent targer in the end-zone. LA's offense has the potential to be one of the most potent in the league in 2022, so there could easily be enough targets for multiple tight ends.

Fantasy Outlook: Parham is likely to see plenty of snaps in '12' sets but has the potential to develop into a solid option in the red zone. Right now, we're interested in him but only in leagues with 18-plus roster spots that can afford to "house" a second tight end.

TE Tre' McKitty - Not Draft Worthy

McKitty struggles to create separation out of his breaks while owning a below-par skill set in blocking. With a free release downfield, his game should test a defense at the third level with a chance to win with legs after the catch. To reach a higher ceiling, McKitty needs to get stronger and work on his route running.

In his rookie season, he caught only six passes for 45 yards.

Fantasy outlook: Hunter Kampmoyer

PK Dustin Hopkins - Solid/Safe Pick

Between kicking for Washington and Los Angeles in 2021, Hopkins made 30 of 34 of his field goals (88.2%). His leg had been limited from 50 yards or more (15-for-30) in his career over seven seasons. He has eight missed extra-point tries in 124 chances.

Fantasy outlook: Hopkins isn't a lock to win the Chargers' kicking job. Last year Los Angeles scored 58 touchdowns while creating only 27 field goal opportunities. Possible matchup value.

Los Angeles - Bye Week Fill-in

Los Angeles fell to 30th in rushing yards allowed (2,361) with 22 rushing touchdowns and 13 runs over 20 yards. The Chargers gave up 4.6 yards per carry.

The Chargers slipped to 12th in passing yards allowed (3,761) with 27 touchdowns and 11 interceptions. Their defense recorded 35 sacks while allowing 53 completions over 20 yards.

The combination of LB Joey Bosa and LB Khalil Mack has 130.5 sacks over their previous 180 games. Closing down the passing window is a must for the Chargers' defense. They have a top-tier safety (Derwin James), and J.C. Jackson improves the cornerback position. When added in LB Kenneth Murray and DE Jerry Tillery, Los Angeles has the foundation of a much better defense. This year, I expect the Chargers to be a top 10 fantasy defense with a much higher ceiling if a couple of their young players reach their potential.