
Los Angeles Chargers
By Jody Smith, Wednesday, June 19, 2024 |
After finishing 5-12, changes were evident. Los Angeles fired GM Tom Telesco and head coach Brandon Staley and then went after Jim Harbaugh, the biggest name on the coaching market. If Harbaugh's previous stints at Stanford, San Fransisco, and Michigan have taught us anything, his teams are built to play the trenches and run the ball. Adding Greg Roman as an offensive coordinator ensures that this Chargers offense will emphasize the run game, so the more than 320 vacated targets may not matter here. With a change in offensive philosophy, the value of long-time Charger wide receivers has shifted in this new offense. Keenan Allen and Mike Williams have been replaced in the draft by promising new additions. Second-round selection Ladd McConkey, and a pair of seventh-round picks, Brendan Rice and Cornelius Johnson, bring fresh talent and potential to the team's offense. Looking at the Chargers' current depth chart, Justin Herbert's top three options are Joshua Palmer, who had 38 receptions and 581 yards last season, second-year wideout Quentin Johnson, who had just 431 receiving yards and 38 receptions after being selected in the first round of the NFL draft last year, and Ladd McConkey. McConkey may overtake Palmer and Johnson as Herbert's favorite target immediately. In games where Herbert didn't have Keenan Allen and Mike Williams, he still found success by spreading the ball around. Herbert got all his receivers involved by not having to funnel his targets into his top options. However, don't expect him to put up top-five fantasy production this season with the offense that Roman likes to run. Herbert completed 297 of his 456 attempts for 3,134 yards in 13 games last year. Suppose you draft Herbert as your first quarterback. In that case, you must give him the Kirk Cousins treatment by adding another solid quarterback option later in the draft and potentially playing the better matchups. Harbaugh is going to love RB Gus Edwards. His 13 rushing scores last season were tied for the third most by any back, and he averaged 4.1 yards per carry, which was the first time in his career he had averaged less than five yards per carry. LA also brought in J.K. Dobbins, who is recovering from a season-ending Achilles injury. Keep an eye on sixth-round Troy RB Kimani Vidal, who could emerge as a serious dark horse in this backfield. At tight end, neither Will Dissly nor Hayden Hurst offers much fantasy value, as the duo combined for just 356 receiving yards on 35 receptions. If you have to draft one of the two, Hurst could be a nice tight-end two with some upside. QB Justin Herbert - Solid/Safe PickWhile Justin Herbert remains one of the top young quarterbacks in the NFL, his fantasy prospects are less certain. With Jim Harbaugh and Greg Roman running the offense, the 2024 Chargers will be far less reliant on the pass. In Herbert's first four years, the team ranked first in plays per game. Harbaugh and Roman's 49ers (2011-2014) ranked 31st in pace and no higher than 29th in pass attempts. Additionally, a mass exodus of veteran pass catchers is further proof of the potential lack of volume. Herbert did compile a 110.8 QB Rating in play-action in 2023, so he's capable of being solid if the Chargers can establish the run. But he's no longer a locked-in QB1. ADVICE: High-end QB2 RB Gus Edwards - Quality BackupThe Chargers are projected to be one of the most run-heavy offenses under Jim Harbaugh and Greg Roman. Gus Edwards is expected to lead LA's backfield, which gives him some sleeper appeal. Edwards is coming off a top-30 campaign in Baltimore, but over 41% of Edwards's production came from his 13 touchdowns. That's not a sustainable rate. Edwards won't catch passes and could split touches with JK Dobbins and Kimani Vidal. Still, opportunity is king in fantasy and Edwards is the best bet to open the season and keep his short-yardage role. A solid mid-round target. ADVICE: Touchdown-dependant RB3 with some week-to-week RB2 value RB J.K. Dobbins - Gamble (high risk)The track record for running backs returning from an Achilles injury is imposing. Furthermore, J.K. Dobbins also tore his ACL in 2022. In three seasons, he has only played 24 games. While there have been flashes, Dobbins will try to make his comeback with the Chargers, where he will compete with Gus Edwards and Kimani Vidal for touches. Dobbins played with Edwards and new Chargers' offensive coordinator Greg Roman in Baltimore but should be viewed as little more than a late-round flier due to his troubling injury history. ADVICE: Coming off of an Achilles injury, Dobbins is barely on the fantasy radar as a high-risk RB5 RB Kimani Vidal - Sleeper (undervalued)ADVICE: A superb late-round sleeper, Vidal has excellent pass-catching and blocking potential. This staff raved about his overall skill set and he has a path to contribute immediately. But be prepared to fight for Vidal. He's a popular late-round sleeper target. WR Ladd McConkey - Quality BackupA sneaky bet to replace Keenan Allen as the Chargers' slot receiver, Ladd McConkey is a superlative route-runner with elite start/stop ability, reliable hands, and 94th-percentile speed. Like Allen, he's also versatile enough to play inside or on the perimeter. The rebuilding Chargers have a wide-open depth chart and McConkey has a clear path to open with a significant role. However, Jim Harbaugh and Greg Roman fully intend on slowing down the offense, which will limit McConkey's volume. McConkey should see plenty of snaps but his volume could be inconsistent. Worth a late-round look. ADVICE: Should see significant snaps right away but target volume could be erratic in new offense WR Joshua Palmer - Sleeper (undervalued)Palmer stepped into the spotlight within the Chargers' offense last season, particularly when Mike Williams or Keenan Allen were sidelined. With both now gone from LA, Palmer has a real opportunity to outplay his modest ADP. Palmer maintained a 17.2% target share and averaged 1.89 yards per route run. In games where Williams wasn't fully fit, Palmer averaged 9.5 yards per target, which ranked 18th. Jim Harbaugh's squad is expected to be one of the most run-heavy in football, but Palmer has a secure role as a starting outside receiver and deep threat. ADVICE: Undervalued late-round pick who should see a career-high in targets. One of our favorite 2024 SLEEPERS to target. WR Quentin Johnston - Bust (overvalued)No way around it, Quentin Johnston was awful in his rookie season. Johnston's 38/431/2 line on 470 routes was one of the worst showings ever for a first-round rookie. He ranked 123rd in win rate versus man coverage and 105th in EPA. Those are scary figures. Additionally, Johnston was not drafted by the current regime, so he may have a much shorter leash than other struggling youngsters. However, he appears to be locked into a starting role, albeit one that looks like it will be among the bottom 10 in pass attempts. ADVICE: The first look at Johnston paints an ugly picture. He'll have chances to rebound but he should be viewed as little more than a fantasy reserve WR Derius Davis - Not Draft WorthyMaybe the No. 4 or No. 5 wideout on a low-volume pass attack. Nothing to see here, folks. TE Will Dissly - Bye Week Fill-inSigned from Seattle, Dissly has been a consistent, if unspectacular performer. We're expecting the Chargers to be among the most run-heavy teams in the NFL, with lots of play-action and 12 sets. Dissly should see plenty of snaps but is unlikely to see a consistent enough target share to warrant much fantasy consideration. TE Hayden Hurst - Bye Week Fill-inADVICE: The Chargers will likely employ a committee approach to the tight end position. Hurst has the best shot at running the most routes and leading the group in targets, giving him fledgling fantasy value. PK Cameron Dicker - Solid/Safe PickDicker was quite accurate, making 31 of his 33 field goal attempts and all 35 of his extra points. He should have secured what was a volatile kicking job with the Chargers. LA won't have the kind of offense we've seen recently, but that could easily lead to more conservative field goal attempts. View Dicker as a quality fantasy option who will go undrafted in a lot of leagues. Los Angeles - Not Draft WorthyLos Angeles dropped to 28th in defense but we're expecting them to be a lot better with Jim Harbaugh and Jesse Minter running the show. Last season, the Chargers were 30th against the pass. The secondary is still a work in progess but was fortified by a pair of mid-round picks in the 2024 NFL Draft. With better coaching, this group can approach being an average NFL stop unit, but they're better left on the waiver wire. |