Indianapolis Colts

INDIANAPOLIS COLTS

There was a lot of adversity in Indianapolis in 2023. Still, the Colts were a dropped pass away from winning the AFC South. Despite missing his prized rookie signal-caller for most of the campaign, in his debut season at the helm, Shane Steichen led his team to 10th in scoring after ranking 31st in 2022.

With Anthony Richardson healthy and Michael Pittman re-signed to a new three-year deal, the Colts enter 2024 with momentum and some intriguing fantasy options.

First among the fantasy headliners is second-year QB Anthony Richardson, whose debut was derailed after four games. However, Richardson looked like a fantasy enigma posting QB2 and QB4 finishes in his two complete games. Richardson's elite rushing potential makes him a coveted risk/reward fantasy option. However, potential drafters should be prepared to invest in a strong backup option.

Gardner Minshew had a strong showing in relief of Richardson and parlayed that into a $25 million deal with the Raiders. In Minshew's place, Joe Flacco gives the Colts a trusted veteran presence to air it out if Richardson gets hurt again.

RB Jonathan Taylor also missed seven starts. But Taylor found the end zone eight times in 10 games and delivered RB1 numbers in terms of fantasy points per game. With Zach Moss now in Cincinnati, Taylor is poised to see a larger share of the backfield touches and contend for top-5 fantasy production.

Pittman ranked ninth in the NFL with 156 targets and fourth with 109 receptions a year ago. The fifth-year star wideout had 11-plus targets in three of Richardson's four starts.

Josh Downs (68/771/2) had a strong debut, absorbing multiple catches in 16 of 17 outings. However, the addition of second-round rookie WR Adonai Mitchell will shake up the target hierarchy. Mitchell is a 4.34 vertical threat who will see time immediately in three-wide sets.

Alec Pierce ranked fifth in the league with a 15.7 ADOT but was held to 30 or fewer yards in seven of his final nine games.

At tight end, the Colts utilized multiple tight end formations on 18.8% of their snaps. However, none of those options exceeded 50 targets or made much of a fantasy impact. Kylen Granson led the way with 30 receptions and 368 yards, but his overall TE33 finish puts him well off the fantasy radar.

Indianapolis allowed the fifth-most points last season. Turning that around was Stechein's top priority. The team re-signed some of their defensive leaders and added key components in the draft.

Allowing fewer points and yards will result in a slowing of the pace for Indy's offense. The Colts have three fantasy stars at three positions but don't have much depth.

QB Anthony Richardson - Sleeper (undervalued)

In two healthy (full) games, Anthony Richardson posted QB4 and QB2 finishes, leading all QBs in points per dropback. A Week 5 shoulder injury ended his season prematurely but Richardson showed league-winning upside in the small sample size starring in Shane Steichen's offense. Steichen has quietly assembled a solid supporting cast around his second-year signal caller, including the addition of second-round WR Adonai Mitchell. The Colts also boast an inviting schedule in 2024, ranked as the seventh-easiest in football. Health will remain the biggest concern for Richardson, followed by Steichen potentially adapting his offense to prevent his quarterback from being put in harm's way. However, if we see a full 17-game slate out of last year's version, Richardson has league-winning upside in his sophomore season. ADVICE: League-winning upside with plenty of risk

QB Joe Flacco - Low Potential

ADVICE: Flacco was a huge addition down the stretch last year. Now, he'll back up a sophomore signal-caller who only played two healthy games. A player to keep on your watch list in 2QB formats.

RB Evan Hull - Deep-league Only

ADVICE; Jonathan Taylor has missed multiple games in three of his four campaigns. Hull is the early favorite to emerge as Indy's No. 2 back, giving him some upside as a late-round handcuff target.

RB Jonathan Taylor - Stud (low risk)

Even though he was limited to 10 games last season, Jonathan Taylor still flashed elite potential. He finished with weekly RB1 numbers in half of those contests but was particularly effective down the stretch, averaging 99 yards per game in his final eight starts with six touchdowns in his last five. He also looked quite healthy, creating a career-best 3.12 yards after contact per attempt. Now fully healthy with a ton of momentum behind a strong run-blocking line that was reinforced in the draft, Taylor looks poised to contend for top-5 fantasy numbers in an emerging Colts offense. ADVICE: Strong RB1 with tier-one capabilities

RB Trey Sermon - Deep-league Only

Sermon will compete with Evan Hull for RB2 duties behind Jonathan Taylor. In the past that has been a decent role, but neither Sermon or Hull have proven anything in the league, particularly as pass-catchers. That shapes up to a bell-cow role for Taylor, with QB Anthony Richardson being the team's No. 2 rusher. Sermon is little more than a late-round handcuff in very deep leagues.

WR Michael Pittman - Solid/Safe Pick

Head coach Shane Steichen centered the offense around Pittman during Steichen's first season as head coach in 2023, sending 150 regular-season targets (the ninth most among NFL wide receivers) his way. Pittman is expected to improve with 2023 first-round draft pick, QB Anthony Richardson, now healthy. Richardson's 42.9% downfield throw rate significantly surpasses last season's starter, Gardner Minshew's 36.1%, bringing an exciting downfield element to Indy's offense. ADVICE: Pittman's mid-third-round average draft position (ADP) in 2024 presents excellent value for fantasy managers. He should be confidently drafted as a WR1 due to his high-volume role and quarterback upgrade.

WR Josh Downs - Bye Week Fill-in

It was a promising debut for Josh Downs. Even though Indianapolis ranked 20th in passing and had quarterback concerns, Downs faired well as the club's slot receiver, posting WR51 numbers with 68 catches for 771 yards on a healthy 98 targets. Downs stood out against man coverage where he had the league's 10th-highest win rate. He also had the 10th-best contested catch rate (7-of-12 targets). With Michael Pittman and Adonai Mitchell on the outside, Downs will continue to see favorable coverage from the slot. Look for him to become Anthony Richardson's top target on short and intermediate routes. ADVICE: Under-the-radar WR4

WR Adonai Mitchell - Bye Week Fill-in

Projected to possibly be a late-first-round pick, AD Mitchell fell to Indianapolis with the 52nd pick of Round 2. Mitchell has good size (6-2, 205) and ran a 4.34 40. He profiles as a solid X receiver with good lateral ability and burst. However, there are concerns with effort and consistency. He should push Alec Pierce to the sidelines as Indy's starting outside receiver opposite of Michael Pittman. Mitchell will make a handful of splash plays as a rookie but there may not be enough consistent targets for him to factor into fantasy lineups in Year One.

WR Alec Pierce - Deep-league Only

With the arrival of AD Mitchell, Pierce will drop to fourth on the depth chart in Indy. The Colts don't run many four-wide sets, so there is very little meat on the bone left for Pierce. He's now just a middling hold in deeper dynasty formats.

TE Jelani Woods - Super Sleeper (high risk/potential)

ADVICE: Woods has the most athletic upside of Indy's trio of tight ends if he can win the starting job in camp. If he does that, Woods is a solid late-round sleeper.

TE Kylen Granson - Deep-league Only

ADVICE: Indianapolis will also utilize multiple tight ends each week. Granson had the most tight end targets last season for Indy but liked the downfield element and was limited to a single TD. He's only fantasy-relevant in deep leagues.

TE Mo Alie-Cox - Deep-league Only

Shane Steichen will rotate his tight ends and isn't afraid to use multiple players on any down. Alie-Cox will occasionaly work in as a red-zone threat but won't see a consistent enough target share to be fantasy-relevant in 2024.

PK Matt Gay - Quality Backup

First, Gay's 134 points ranked 10th in 2023. His 41 field goal attempts were the second-most. However, Gay struggled with accuracy, missing eight of those kicks and an additional extra point try. Secondly, Indy's offense is conducive to fantasy scoring. Finally, Gay will quickly need to improve his consistency or he could wind up back in the traveling veteran replacement kicker tour.

Indianapolis - Solid/Safe Pick

Indy was overlooked last season, ranking sixth with 7.4 fantasy points per game. Don't expect a repeat of that or the four DST scores, but the Colts are a solid option that can be had with your final pick.