Indianapolis Colts

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The Indianapolis Colts have the tools to have the best team in the AFC South. They have an electric emerging young stud running back with Jonathan Taylor, which is something Matt Ryan rarely had in his time with the Falcons. With a top offensive line and excellent run game, Ryan should excel with play-action passes while upgrading the Colts' overall offense. In addition, Michael Pittman should be a big winner with the change at quarterback. There is a winning fantasy opportunity for a second wideout in this offense, with the early favorites being Alec Peirce and Parris Campbell.

Offense

Indy ran the ball 49.4 % of the time last year with an impressive number of runs of 20 yards (19) and 40 yards (5). However, poor quarterback play and questionable receiving depth behind Michael Pittman led to weaker than expected passing results.

Running Backs

QB Matt Ryan - Quality Backup

In his 15th season in the NFL, Ryan will have a new home for the first time in his career. With the Falcons, he consistently ranked high in completions (422, 408, and 407 from 2018 to 2020) and passing attempts (more than 600 per year seven times) over the past decade. Ryan has a 120-102 career record with fade over his past four seasons (25-39).

Last year he completed 67 % of his passes, but Ryan failed to pass for 4,000 yards for the first time since 2010 while delivering only 20 passing touchdowns. Over the previous four years, he scored on the ground seven times (only five touchdowns over his first 158 games). Ryan took 171 sacks over the last four seasons (he averaged 27.9 sacks over his first 10 years with Atlanta). Over his final nine games in 2021, he averaged only 201 passing yards with a combined five touchdowns and six interceptions.

Fantasy outlook: The change in scenery should treat Ryan well. He won't need to air the ball out in many games, and his new offensive line should allow less pressure (32 sacks in 2021). As a result, Ryan should be better than a game manager in the real football world. In late May, he sits 20th in the early quarterback rankings in the National Fantasy Football Championship. I only see about 4,000 combined yards, but Ryan should toss close to 30 touchdowns.

Other Options: Nick Foles, Sam Ehlinger, Jack Coan

RB Phillip Lindsay - Not Draft Worthy

After two productive years (192/1,037/9 and 224/1,011/7 with 79 combined catches for 437 yards and one score) for the Broncos, Lindsay struggled to make plays and stay healthy over the past two seasons. Between the Texans and the Dolphins in 2021, he gained only 249 yards on 88 rushes (2.8 per carry) with a minimal opportunity in the passing game (4/45/1).

Fantasy outlook: There won't be much fight for Lindsay in fantasy drafts this year, but I could see him working as an early-down option if Jonathan Taylor had any issue. For now, he is a player to follow just in case his stock spikes due to an injury to a Colts' back.

Other Options: Deon Jackson, Ty'Son Williams, D'Vonte Price

RB Jonathan Taylor - Stud (low risk)

The Colts gave Taylor about 50 % of their running back snaps over the first five weeks, leading to less value than expected running the ball (73/327/2). However, he did shine twice (6/60 and 3/116/1) over this span catching the ball. Indy gave him over 80 % of their snaps over their final eight games. Taylor had a floor of 95 combined yards over his last 12 games while turning into a beast running the ball (259/1,484/16). His role in the passing game dwindled over his final five contests (4/24). He finished the year first in running back scoring (375.10) in PPR leagues with 2,171 combined yards, 20 touchdowns, and 40 catches.

Fantasy outlook: Taylor is big and fast with an electric ceiling in scoring. Even with 372 touches in 2021 ( 21.9 per game), he gave off the appearance of leaving some stats on the table by his limited role early in the season. Taylor is the consensus number fantasy pick in 2022, with the feel of being even better this year. His next step looks to be a run at 2,000+ rushing yards with a push over 50 catches and impact touchdowns.

RB Nyheim Hines - Fantasy Handcuff

Hines went from early-season thorn to Jonathan Taylor to fantasy bench warmer over his final eight weeks. He played well in Week 1 (82 combined yards with six catches), Week 3 (79 combined yards with one touchdown and five catches), and Week 9 (108 combined yards with one score and four catches), but Hines scored fewer than 5.0 fantasy points in PPR leagues in nine other matchups. As a result, he finished the year as the 48th ranked running back (114.80 fantasy points), 32 slots lower than 2020 (193.20 fantasy points).

Fantasy outlook: Hines brings handcuff value to Taylor, but he will be challenging to time again in 2022. His best value comes in a chaser game or possibly when Indy blows out an opponent, and Hines gets the bulk of the closing touches. His early ADP (139) priced him as the 47th running back drafted. I view him as necessary to a Taylor team, but I won't look to snipe Hines before his draft value this season. With a floor of 40 catches, he does have a chance at 800 combined yards and a handful of scores with better overall play by the Colts' offense.

WR Michael Pittman - Stud (low risk)

There is a lot to like about Pittman in his third season in the NFL. He more than doubled his rookie production (40/503/1 on 61 targets) in 2021 (88/1,082/6), with further growth expected this year. His best stats came first 10 games (55/729/5 on 76 targets), highlighted by four weeks (8/123, 6/89/1, 4/105/1, and 10/86/2). However, once the Colts shifted to their run game and Jonathan Taylor, Pittman had a sharp decline in his output over his final seven starts (33/389/1 on 53 targets). His catch rate (68.2) commands more chances.

Matt Ryan has a history of delivering high-ranking results for his top wideout over his career, but he struggled to deliver scoring plays (42 touchdowns) to Julio Jones over his last 106 games in Atlanta.

Fantasy outlook: This season, Pittman should see his targets rise to the 150 area, leading to a minimum of 100 catches for 1,250 yards with six to eight scores. In the early draft season in the NFFC, he has an ADP of 33 as the 15th wide receiver off the table. Therefore, I view him as a target as his current draft value.

FULLTIME'S TAKE: POTENTIAL BREAKOUT CANDIDATE. Do not let him slip out of your 3rd round grasp.

WR Alec Pierce - Super Sleeper (high risk/potential)

Over 32 games in college over the past three seasons, Pierce caught 106 of his 173 targets (61.3 %) for 1,851 yards and 13 touchdowns. His best season came in 2021 (52/884/8). He comes to the NFL with an edge in size (6'3" and 210 lbs.) and speed (4.41 in the 40-yard dash at the 2022 NFL combine), but Pierce does have some limitations in his short-area quickness and release. He plays with a tight end mentality that projects well in run blocking and winning in tight coverage. Pierce won't win with his route running over the first 10 yards past the line of scrimmage, but his build-up speed will create separation downfield. Pierce should shine in the red zone while scoring on many fade-type passes.

Fantasy outlook: His college resume is relatively short, and I don't see Pierce getting a bunch of easy catches close to the line of scrimmage but this is a solid enough offense that Pierce can post some very usable fantasy stats in Year One.

WR Parris Campbell - Gamble (high risk)

Injuries led to only 13 games played over his first three seasons in the league. A left knee injury in 2020 that required surgery led to him missing the final 15 games. Last year a broken foot cost Campbell another 11 games. He has 34 catches for 360 yards and two touchdowns so far in his short career.

At first glance, Campbell gives me the feel of a great player once he adds more upper body strength to help him in the NFL vs. press coverage. His speed (4.31 40-yard dash at the NFL combine) was electric while also offering vision and open field ability. Ohio State used him on many plays close to the line of scrimmage as a pass-catcher in 2018, leading to a breakout season (90/1063/12).

Parris showed explosiveness as a runner in his first two years in college (14/186/2). His short-area quickness brings an edge in the slot while working best when having a free release vs. zone coverage. Campbell needs to improve his route running plus show growth in his hands in tight coverage. I like his movements with the ball in his hands, and I expect him to fit well in the Colts' offense that wants to make defenses defend the whole field.

Fantasy outlook: Parris will go undrafted in early leagues with his injury-prone tag and empty stats on his career resume. If the summer reports are positive, his natural progression with be a WR2 or WR3 for the Colts. I will keep an open mind on his fantasy value if he earns a starting job on opening day. Parris could be a four-catch-a-week guy in 2022.

WR Mike Strachan - Not Draft Worthy

Strachan had 78 catches for 1,319 yards and 19 touchdowns in his junior season at Charleston. His college team didn't play last year, leading to no momentum in this year's draft. He is a high point catcher who will need time to develop.

Strachan offers elite size (6'5" and 225 lbs.) to the wide receiver position. Strachan creates wins on jump balls and fades at the goal line, but his speed and route running won't separate him from his peers.

In his rookie season, he caught only two passes for 26 yards.

Other Options: Ashton Dulin, Dezmon Patmon, Keke Coutee

TE Mo Alie-Cox - Deep-league Only

Last season, Indy gave Alie-Cox the second-most wide receiver snaps, but he only caught 24 passes for 316 yards and four touchdowns on 45 targets. He never had more than three catches in a game or more than 50 yards receiving. His stats look better after his 2020 season (31/394/2 on 39 targets).

Fantasy outlook: The Colts signed Alie-Cox to a three-year $18 million contract last March. He projects as their starter, but Indianapolis will still rotate in a couple of other options. Alie-Cox has no starting fantasy value other than an occasional injury cover if he starts the year with success.

TE Jelani Woods - Dynasty Only

After a quiet first three seasons at Oklahoma State (31/361/4) over 22 games, Woods played much better in 2021 (44/598/8) after transferring to Virginia. His overall blocking isn't where it needs to be, but he has yet to fill into his body. In the passing game, Woods offers questionable hands and route running. His success late year in receiving doesn't look repeatable early in his NFL career.

TE Kylen Granson - Not Draft Worthy

Over his last two seasons at SMU, Granson caught 78 passes for 1,257 yards and 14 touchdowns on 120 targets. He has a big wide receiver feel, which may lead to him leading Indy in tight end production early in his career.

His best asset to start his NFL career will be his speed over the long field. Granson needs work on his route running while also failing short as a blocker. Defenders in tight quarters will challenge his hands. He'll test safeties at the third level of the defense with the wheels to score if Granson finds a seam.

Granson finished his rookie season with 11 catches for 106 yards on 15 targets with no games of value.

Other Options: Andrew Ogletree, Michael Jacobson, Nikola Kalinic

PK Rodrigo Blankenship - Solid/Safe Pick

Blankenship made 32 of his 37 field goal chances in his rookie season while missing two of his three tries from 50 yards or more. His year ended with three missed field goals in six kicks. He failed on two of his 45 extra points. In 2021, Blankenship saw his season end after five games with a right hip injury. He finished the year with 11-for-14 in his field goals while missing his only kick from 50 yards.

Fantasy outlook: The Colts scored 52 touchdowns and 35 field goal attempts last year. Blankenship doesn't have an impact leg from long range, and Indianapolis will score many times in the red zone with their plus run game. He projects as a top 10 kicker with upside if Blankenship can improve from long range.

Indianapolis - Solid/Safe Pick

Indy slipped to 10th in rushing yards allowed (1,854). They gave up 4.4 yards per carry, with ball carriers scoring 10 touchdowns and 10 runs over 20 yards.

The Colts bumped up to 19th in pass yards allowed (3,980). Their defense finished with 43 sacks while giving up 32 passing touchdowns with 19 interceptions.

LB Darius Leonard remains Indy's top defender against the run, but he failed to record a sack for the first time in his four-year career. LB Bobby Okereke made a ton of tackles (132), although his run defense was more of a liability than his stats. The key to their defense is the development of DE Kwity Paye. Indy has one potential edge in the secondary (Stephon Gilmore), and DE Yannick Ngakoue should help this pass rush.

This defense has a risk/reward feel, with their best success coming when they play from the lead. The Colts rank 4th in the early drafts season in the NFFC, but I don't respect their overall defensive roster. More of a matchup in the fantasy market.