|By Shawn Childs, Monday, August 19, 2019|
(Editor's note: This is the free preview of the Philadelphia team outlook. If you already are a premium subscriber to FullTime Fantasy, click here for our premium expanded Philadelphia Eagles Team Outlook. The expanded team outlook also includes sections covering the coaching staff, offensive line, schedule, free agency, 2019 draft picks, defense & more.)
Eagles Offense Outlook
When at their best offensively in 2017, Philadelphia ran the ball well while their QBs delivered plus TDs in the red zone. Their regression on defense last year led to more passes, which wasn't helped by regression as a running team. Their goal would be more balanced offensively while having the hammer at QB if the offense comes together in 2019. I expect plenty of scoring chance this year.
QB Carson Wentz - Solid/Safe Pick
Update 12/29/19After four games this year, Wentz had ten TDs with over 1,000 combined yards. Midseason, the Eagles struggled to find their identity on offense, which led to a poor five-game run (1,072 passing yards with five TDs) by their QB. Over this span, Philly struggled to make plays downfield at wide receiver while trying to run a ball-control offense to keep their defense off the field. Over the previous month, Wentz played at a high-level. He passed for 1,220 yards in four games with nine TDs and one Int, helping the Eagles to three straight wins after a disastrous loss in Week 13 vs. the Dolphins in Miami. On Sunday, Wentz played will heart and toughness in a great victory over the Cowboys. He finished with 341 combined yards with a TD while continuing to make plays to help extend drives. Wentz passed for 325 yards and two TDs in Week 14 against the Giants. New York slipped to 29th in QB defense (24.62 FPPG) after allowing over 30.0 Fantasy points in four outings. His WR core has no real upside while also battling some injuries at TE. The buck stops here even with a favorable matchup.
RB Jordan Howard - Bust (overvalued)
Update 11/16/19After ten weeks of the NFL season, Howard is the 18th ranked RB in PPR leagues. Over his previous two games, the Eagles gave him 44 touches leading to 194 combined yards with two TDs and two catches. His best value came in Week 4 (115 combined yards with two TDs and three catches). He gained 513 yards with seven TDs and seven catches on 112 touches over the past seven games. New England has the top RB defense (14.93 FPPG) with some regression in the previous two games (20.20 and 24.80 FPPG). Howard has a slight shoulder issue heading into this week’s game, but he should play on Sunday. Wrong kind of matchup in the daily games.
RB Miles Sanders - Sleeper (undervalued)
Update 12/29/19The Eagles came up big on Sunday, and they couldn’t have done it without Sanders. His star rose in Week 15 (172 combined yards with two TDs and six catches on 25 touches). In a must-win game vs. the Cowboys, Sanders had his second straight impact game. He gained 156 combined yards with a TD and five catches. Over the last two games, Philly gave him 50 touches. Sanders will finish as a top 15 RB in 2019 with over 1,300 combined yards with six-plus TDs and over 50 catches. He did all of this despite starting the season as a rotational player with Jordan Howard and no chances at goal-line carries over the first half of the season. In Week 16, Sanders gained 69 combined yards with four catches on 19 touches. New York worked its way to 13th in RB defense (23.67 FPPG) with four teams scoring over 30.0 Fantasy points (35.40, 39.40, 35.20, and 36.20). The Giants will give up rushing TDs (19) with RBs gaining 3.9 yards per carry with risk at times in the passing game (83/675/0). A hot player with an improved role, but a trip on the road should lead to a step back in production.
RB Corey Clement - Not Draft Worthy
Fantasy owners expected more juice out of Clement in 2018 after showing some upside late in 2017. His best game in the regular season came in Week 9 (67 combined yards with three TDs and one catch). Corey came up big as well in the Super Bowl (108 combined yards with one TD and three catches). In 2018, Clement only had 451 combined yards with two TDs while failing to make an impact in the passing game (22/192 on 25 targets). Most of his stats came in five games (379 combined yards with two TDs and 16 catches). Corey may lead the team in catches, but I don't expect his opportunity to be high enough to chase him in Fantasy drafts. Last year the Eagles' RBs caught 78 passes for 657 yards and four TDs on 106 targets.
WR Greg Ward - Solid/Safe Pick
Update 12/29/19Over the last two games with starting snaps, Ward caught 11 of his 14 passes for 132 yards and one TD. He has 22 catches for 211 yards and one TD on 33 targets in 2019 with one catch over 20 yards. The Giants fell to 30th in WR defense (40.66 FPPG – 202/2834/22 on 299 targets) with eight WRs (Michael Gallop – 7/158, Amari Cooper – 6/106/1, Mike Evans – 8/190/3, Adam Thielen – 7/130/2, Julian Edelman – 9/113, Kenny Golladay – 6/123/2, Allen Robinson – 6/131/1, and Allen Lazard – 3/103/1). The Giants have injuries and weakness at CB, but Ward is far from a top option in the receiving game. Possible trap.
WR Alshon Jeffery - Solid/Safe Pick
Update 11/16/19Before the bye week, Jeffery suffered an ankle injury that puts him in the questionable mode for Sunday’s game. On the year, he has one game of value (10/76/1) while gaining fewer than 55 yards in six of his eight games. The Patriots have the top WR defense (23.84 FPPG – 97/998/0 on 185 targets). A date with CB Stephon Gilmore shouldn’t offer much upside even if he plays.
WR DeSean Jackson - Over the Hill (decreased production)
Update 11/01/19There is a chance that Jackson returns in Week 9 after turning in a couple of practices this week. In his only start in 2019, he caught eight of his nine targets for 154 yards and two TDs with two catches over 40 yards. CB Kyle Fuller hasn’t played as well in 2019 after showing more upside in his previous two seasons. He’ll allow some TDs and big plays. Philly needs a WR to stretch the field, and Jackson provides that skill set. His playing may be limited, which would leave me on the sidelines in Week 9 in the daily games.
WR Nelson Agholor - Bust (overvalued)
Update 10/04/19The fun ride for two weeks (8/107/1 and 8/50/2) for Agholor ended with a kick to the Jimmies for Fantasy owners in Week 4 (0/0). In his two good starts, he averaged 11.5 targets. With Alshon Jeffery back on the field, Agholor slips to the third option in the passing game for the Eagles if DeSean Jackson doesn’t play. CB Brian Poole is playing well in the slot for the Jets. Only a ten-point player in this matchup.
WR JJ Arcega-Whiteside - Dynasty Only
In his three seasons with playing time for Stanford, Arcega-Whiteside showed growth each year (24/379/5, 48/781/9, and 63/1059/14) while showcasing plus yards per catch each season (15.8, 16.3, and 16.8). J.J. brings size (6'3' and 225 lbs.) to the WR position. His hands and strength give him an edge on jump balls in the end zone, but he needs to improve his route running and his overall technique to become a complete player at the next level. Arcega-Whiteside lacks speed, so his success will come by his ability to be physical on his release and his route running.
TE Zach Ertz - Stud (low risk)
Update 12/21/19Ertz continued his second-half push with another solid game in Week 15 (5/61/1 on ten targets). Over his last six games, he caught 47 passes for 464 yards and five TDs on 65 targets. He needs 16 catches in the final two games to reach 100 catches for the season, and Ertz is 112 yards from reaching 1,000 on the year. In Week 7, the Cowboys held him to two catches for 38 yards on six targets. Dallas dropped to 26th in TE defense (13.81 FPPG – 84/817/5 on 112 targets) after they struggled to defend the Rams’ TEs in Week 15 (14/126). Three other teams have had success at TE vs. the Cowboys (NYG – 12/124/1, PHI – 6/107/1, and MIN – 9/48/2). With no WR1 or WR2 on the roster, Ertz will again work at the top receiving threat for the Eagles with better value expected at home.
TE Dallas Goedert - Sleeper (undervalued)
Update 12/29/19With Zach Ertz out this week, Goedert gains the top receiving opportunity in the Eagles’ offense. He emerged as a star for the Eagles on Sunday. Goedert finished with a career-high in catches (9), receiving yards (90), and targets (12) while adding his fifth TD of the season. Over his previous ten games, Goedert caught 49 of his 67 targets for 499 yards and four TDs. In 2019, the TEs on Philly have 142 catches for 1,458 yards and 11 TDs on 213 targets, which works out to 23.59 FPPG in PPR leagues. The Giants rank 11th in TE defense (11.24 FPPG – 61/673/7 on 96 targets) with three disaster games (DAL – 6/54/2, DAL – 9/100/1, and PHI – 12/132/2). Priced to pay off, while expecting to be a high percentage own in Week 17 in the daily games.
PK Jake Elliott - Stud (low risk)
In his first season in the NFL, Jake made 26 of his 31 field goals (83.9 percent) while showing upside form long range (5-for-6). In 2018, Elliott matched his field goal output exactly with regression from long range (2-for-5). He's made 72 of 77 extra points in his short career. Last year Philadelphia scored 41 TDs, which was 12 fewer than 2017. Solid leg for a team that should create plenty of scoring chances.
Philadelphia - Bust (overvalued)
Philly fell to 30th in passing yards allowed (4,308) while allowing 7.1 yards per pass attempt. QBs tossed only 22 TDs with 10 Ints while being sacked 34 times. The Eagles did allow 60 completions over 20 yards.
DT Malik Jackson played well in the pass rush in 2016 and 2017 (15 combined sacks) for the Jaguars while also chipping in with seven defended passes and four defended passes. Last year he had regression in all areas, but Philly thought enough of him to sign him to three-year $30 million contract.
DT Fletcher Cox is a top run defender who set a career high in sacks (10.5) in 2018. Over the winter, he had surgery to repair a foot issue.
DE Brandon Graham had regression in the pass rush (four sacks) while remaining an edge in run support. His overall game should add value in all areas while starting the year at age 31.
DE Derek Barnett missed ten games last year after getting drafted in the first round in 2017. In a part-time role in 2017, Barnett had five sacks and 21 tackles. Derek projects to have value against the run with solid vision and hands to pressure the QB. His first step quickness and speed won't offer an edge, so Barnett will try to cheat the snap to create an early win off the ball, but this plan can lead to mental mistakes and penalties. Derek is still a thinker, which leads to a lost step if he's late dissecting the developing play. Barnett loses value when asked to make a significant change of direction moves.
Nigel Bradham was on the field for a ton of plays in 2018 (1,053 snaps), which led to success vs. the run while offering minimal impact value in the pass rush and risk in pass coverage. The Eagles may need to find another option at linebacker to rotate in with Bradham.
Zack Brown delivered 286 combined tackles in 2016 and 2017 for the Bills and the Redskins in 29 games, but he didn't quite live up to expectation last year for the Redskins. Brown posted 96 tackles with one sack and two defended passes.
Kamu Grugier-Hill showed growth in 2018, which led to a career high in tackles (45) with one sack, two defended passes, and one Int. He projects as a rotational player with no impact value.
S Malcolm Jenkins has been a top cover player in his career in the NFL with success in run support. Last year he had 97 tackles and eight defended passes, but he did fade vs. the run. Jenkins wants a new contract, which could be a problem at his age (31).
S Rodney McLeod missed 13 games in 2018, which came after a fade in production in 2017. He has some risk vs. the run while doing a decent job in pass coverage.
CB Jalen Mills didn't play well in 2018 while missing eight games with a foot injury. He tends to allow a high catch rate while showing risk in TDs allowed in 2017. I view him as a weak link, especially when asked to cover the long field.
CB Ronald Darby had injuries in back-to-back seasons for the Eagles leading to 17 missed games and torn ACL in his right knee last November. When healthy in 2016 for the Bills, Darby was excellent in support with some risk in coverage. Ronald did play well in his eight games in 2017 for the Eagles.
Eagles Defense Fantasy Outlook
I see a ton of disaster on this defense, especially if they have regression in the pass rush. The defensive line can handle the run game, but the linebacking position does have risk while lacking depth and the next impact player. The secondary has many question marks with one player more motivated to his next payday. I want no part of the defense in the Fantasy market. On the positive side, the regression on defense will force Philadelphia to score more points to win games in 2019.
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