Kansas City Chiefs
By Jody Smith, Sunday, September 1, 2024 |
Having won 3 of the past 5 Superbowls, including going back-to-back, the Kansas City Chiefs went into the offseason with their eyes set on becoming the first NFL team to three-peat. Patrick Mahomes and the Chiefs finished ninth in total offense averaging 351.3 yards per game. However, despite being able to move the ball, Kansas City averaged just 21.8 points per game, which ranked fifteenth. To enhance their scoring potential, the Chiefs have brought in former Arizona Cardinals wide receiver Marquise Brown (51/574/4). Despite his career lows in yards per target and catch percentage, Brown's past performance and KC's offensive strategy suggest a promising future. It's worth noting that Brown hasn't played a full season since 2021. But in that campaign, he finished with over 1000 yards. Before his injury in 2022, Brown was on track for 1300 yards and 120 receptions, indicating his potential impact on the team's offense. Brown wasn't the only receiver brought in to bolster the club's passing attack. Kansas City also traded up in this year's draft and selected Texas wide receiver Xavier Worthy. Today's game is all about speed. With Brown and Worthy's ability to stretch the field, expect Travis Kelce to have a monster fantasy season after falling 16 yards shy of 1000 in 2023. Worthy will have an opportunity to produce immediately. As a freshman, Worthy caught 62 passes and scored 12 times. You may have also heard Rashee Rice (79/938/7) may face league discipline for an offseason incident. When the Chiefs are at full strength, defensive coordinators will be the spokespeople for Tums. Kelce, Brown, Rice, and Worthy are dynamic playmakers, and we aren't even talking about Patrick Mahomes. Even in a "down season", Mahomes finished with the seventh-most fantasy points per game, averaging 18.4 per contest thanks to casually throwing for 4,183 yards and 27 touchdowns. The Chiefs have made strategic moves along the offensive line. They did lose a key member in guard Nick Allegretti. However, they have also drafted a pair of linemen, Kingsley Suamataia and Hunter Nourzad, who bring versatility and potential to the team. Suamataia will eventually take over at left tackle, and Nourzad can play right guard and center, indicating the team's thoughtful planning and preparation for the future. Replacing that offensive line is not only a measure the Chiefs put in place for Patrick Mahomes but for Isiah Pacheco as well. Kansas City re-signed Clyde Edwards-Helaire but added no real threat to Pacheco's production. Pacheco is coming off a season in which he ran for 935 yards and hauled in 44 passes for an additional 244 yards. With no critical additions to the backfield, Pacheco should be considered a top-12 fantasy option at the running back position. QB Patrick Mahomes - Stud (low risk)There was a noticeable dropoff in Patrick Mahomes's play last season. Mahomes posted a career-worst 6.8 ADOT and was forced to scramble 51 times as the potent downfield element was missing from Kansas City's attack. Enter record-setting Xavier Worthy and Marquise Brown to quell that concern. Even in a "down" 2023 showing, Mahomes completed a career-best 67.2% of his attempts and rushed for 389 yards in another top-10 showing. In addition to the speed infusion, Andy Reid bolstered the offensive line with three selections in the 2024 NFL Draft. The improved supporting cast will help Mahomoes immensely, so a positive regression to the mean is in order. ADVICE: Locked in Tier One option RB Isiah Pacheco - Solid/Safe PickOne of the most enjoyable runners to watch, Isiah Pacheco is trending toward a Year Three breakout. Pacheco took a huge leap in his second season, ranking 14th in fantasy points per game and averaging 96.3 total yards while finding the end zone eight times in KC's final nine games (including the postseason). He really thrived in games without Jerick McKinnon, producing six top-6 PPR weeks in the seven weeks McKinnon missed. The Chiefs also beefed up their receiving corps, which will only open things up further for Pacheco, who already ranked third last year in yards accumulated on designed runs. Get the rocket emoji ready. ADVICE: Breakout candidate with Top-5 upside RB Samaje Perine - Bye Week Fill-inAfter being released by the Broncos, Perine quickly signed with the Chiefs. Perine ranked 18th in the NFL in RB targets last season. This is a massive upgrade. He will fill in that Jerick McKinnon role as the passing-down specialist. Definitely a player to keep in mind in the latter rounds of PPR drafts. RB Clyde Edwards-Helaire - Fantasy HandcuffADVICE: CEH is one play away from a significant role in one of the NFL's best offenses. He's one of the top late-round handcuff backs to target in the waning rounds of the draft. RB Carson Steele - Super Sleeper (high risk/potential)From nowhere to making the Chiefs' 53-man roster, Steele turned 11 preseason carried into 87 yards and a score. Additionally, he broke 11 tackles and created 81 yards after contact. "Warhorse" is a sneaky late-round investment who might factor in as a red-zone option in KC's diverse offense. WR Rashee Rice - Gamble (high risk)Rice had a nice rookie season for the Chiefs. He flashed his potential during his rookie campaign, racking up 79 catches for 938 yards and seven touchdowns over 16 games. Rice also had a 17.9% target share and ranked 10th with 2.52 yards per route run. However, the arrival of Marquise Brown and Xavier Worthy will cut into his opportunities. Adding to the uncertainty, Rice faces legal troubles from a high-speed hit-and-run incident that might lead to a multi-game suspension, putting his availability for the upcoming season in jeopardy. What was a promising WR2 profile is now filled with uncertainty. ADVICE: With added competition and a potential suspension, there's more risk than reward WR Xavier Worthy - Quality BackupPatrick Mahomes had the lowest average depth of target total of his career as the Chiefs lacked a viable deep threat. Enter Xavier Worthy, who just set the all-time NFL Scouting Combine record with a 4.21-second 40-yard dash. Worthy also has 96th-percentile burst and inside/outside flexibility. He's not just a one-trick pony. Worthy set the Texas record for receiving yards (981) and touchdowns (12) by a freshman. Although he's undersized (5-11, 167) Worthy will help open things up for Mahomes. He's a fantasy WR4/flex option that will account for some huge plays, making him a viable option, especially in best ball. ADVICE: Elite speed makes Worthy an instant big-play threat WR Marquise Brown - Solid/Safe PickMarquise "Hollywood" Brown endured a disappointing 2023 season, plagued by inconsistent quarterback play and injuries. Despite solid air yards and target share numbers, he struggled to produce consistently, averaging just 7.8 points per game. However, his move to the Chiefs offers a promising opportunity to rejuvenate his career alongside Patrick Mahomes. With his speed and playmaking ability, Brown could ascend to a fantasy WR2 in Kansas City's high-powered offense if he can build an early-season rapport with Mahomes. The potential absence of Rashee Rice only further solidifies Brown as an intriguing sleeper pick. ADVICE: Strong sleeper target who has explosive weekly upside with Patrick Mahomes under center WR Justin Watson - Low PotentialADVICE: Watson runs an awful lot of routes for a player who averages fewer than three targets per game. His main value has been in a few 'pop' games as Kansas City's deep threat. But with so much added target competition, Watson is, at best, the Chiefs' No. 4 wide receiver. TE Travis Kelce - Stud (low risk)Unfortunately, Kelce's reign as the undisputed No. 1 tight end may be over, but he's still an elite playmaker who should benefit from an improved supporting cast. The Chiefs had nothing downfield to thwart coverage away from Kecle in 2023, so he saw a reduction in yards per route run and ADOT. The drop in red-zone targets and scores was the bigger concern. Now 34, Kelce is in a favorable position to bounce back in scoring, but his best days may be behind him. Regardless, he remains a top-3 fantasy tight end in an elite offense. ADVICE: Still worthy of an early pick as one of the top two players at his position TE Noah Gray - Not Draft WorthyADVICE: Gray won't have a viable role unless Travis Kelce were to miss time. But he would have significant TE2 value if Kelce were to be sidelined. PK Harrison Butker - Solid/Safe PickButker managed to make himself a hot offseason topic for all the wrong reasons. Still, he remains a solid kicker on one of the league's most explosive (potentially) offenses. Despite KC's struggles last season, Butker still ranked fourth with 137 points. View him as a locked-in elite fantasy option as long as he remains in Kansas City. Kansas City - Solid/Safe PickKansas City's third Super Bowl title in the Andy Reid era can be attributed more to their defense. The Chiefs' stop unit ranked 2nd in the NFL in total yards and points allowed. From a fantasy perspective, the Chiefs weren't quite as good as they only forced 17 turnovers. They did get 57 sacks and score a pair of TDs, but the Chiefs remain a borderline DST1 with a lot of talent but could be vulnerable to a lot of garbage time stats. |