Best Bets for Week 16 of the NFL season
Who will win, step up and get beat down in Week 16 of the NFL season...
As always, these fantasy musings do not reflect the opinion of FFToolbox.com, but just a solo fantasy writer with too much time on his hands now that he no longer has to print off Mapquest directions for Santa...and of course, the picks are for informational purposes only...
Also, note that the FFToolbox.com podcast will continue for the next three weeks as we wrap up the 2009 season plus rank our top choices for those venturing into playoff fantasy leagues. We will also talk about the NFL playoffs, offseason rumors and later in the off-season preview the NFL Draft.
Last week: 8-8 straight, 5-9-2 spread
Overall (thru Week 14): 151-77 straight; 115-110-3 spread
TENNESSEE 27 (-3) San Diego 23: Might as well have the Fantasy MVP (year-to-date that is. Don't let us down CJ) lead off the Week 16 action and do so against the hottest team in football. Despite the chilly Nashville air, look for plenty of points with one score - plus 160+ total yards - to come from the man who would torch Ted freekin Ginn in a race. In addition to Johnson, Bo Scaife and Nate Washington catch TDP's from Vince Young while Rod Bironas bangs home two field goals. On the other side, Antonio Gates gets not one, but two touchdowns as the Chargers take advantage of injuries to the Titans linebacking corps. Nate Kaeding drills three kicks, one from 50+, but the Titans keep their playoff hopes alive this week, clinch a spot in the finale...
GREEN BAY 31 (-14) Seattle 13: The fortunes of these teams are heading in the opposite directions, like Justin Timberlake compared to the rest of N'Sync. Nobody wants to face the Aaron Rodgers-led passing attack in the playoffs, so imagine how little resistance the Seahawks 29th ranked pass defense will put up. The Packers defense has been better of late, Big Ben's 500+ passing yards game aside, and should have Matt Hasselbeck running for his life. (ok, that Big Ben total is way too much to ignore, but the Pack won't face a team that desperate the rest of the way, even in the playoffs)...
CLEVELAND 14 Oakland 13 (+3): And to think just a couple of years ago the Browns were choosing between Derek Anderson and Charlie Frye for their starting QB gig. Now both will do their best not to set the league's passing game back 20 years. With all the expected handoffs, this will feel more like a 1970's Oklahoma-Nebraska game. Outside of the backs, nothing, literally nothing, to see here...
CINCINNATI 27 Kansas City 16 (+13): Cedric Benson left, Cedric Benson right, then Larry Johnson running out the fourth quarter clock against his former team.
ATLANTA 21 Buffalo 14 (+9): Those Michael Turner owners that remain alive for fantasy glory are sure to be thinking "only if" their man was a viable play this week (which he's not, even if active. too risky), how great of a play he would be against the Bills 32nd ranked run defense. Jason Snelling will make for a reasonable facsimile, though Fred Jackson will be the productive RB in the game.
MIAMI 26 Houston 24 (+3): The edge in this defacto playoff elimination game goes to the team that can run the ball consistently. Hope I do not need to explain which side that is. While Ricky is running for the Dolphins, Chad Henne makes enough plays in the passing game to counter another big week from the Matt Schaub-to Andre Johnson connection.
NY GIANTS 27 (+7) Carolina 17: Even if the Giants make the playoffs, they need a stepped up running game to keep those high-powered offenses they will be facing off the field. Against the Panthers less-than-ordinary run defense, they feed Brandon Jacobs and Ahmad Bradshaw the ball plenty, though the backup is the better fantasy threat yet again...Scariest fantasy receiver of the week, Steve Smith. No, the other one who used to be "Steve Smith" before the Giants version became the more notable version much of the season. The Panthers' Smith is red-hot and faces a Giants secondary that gives up big plays in the passing game.
NEW ORLEANS 34 (-14) Tampa Bay 17: Admire the effort, but the Saints will benefit from the Week 15 loss. Too bad their defense simply cannot compete with the big boys regardless, but none of that matters against the overmatched Bucs. Drew Brees throws for three scores, Josh Freeman tosses three picks.
NEW ENGLAND 24 Jacksonville 17 (+7.5): Tom Brady, buddy, your fantasy owners are counting on you. The last two weeks, you have been more Brady Quinn than Golden Boy with back-to-back sub-200 yard outings, but the scheduling gods have hooked you up with the Jags swiss cheese secondary. With your defensive front weakened by injuries, MJD will make the game interesting, but this is your week. Make it count.
PITTSBURGH 23 (-2.5) Baltimore 20: Ray Rice keeps on keeping on and Joe Flacco will get his in a game that features more passing than normal but these squads, but those Three Rivers guys win it in the end. That final play TD last week kept the Steelers in the wildcard hunt and Ben Roethlisberger has another bomb or two in his cannon of an arm against a Ravens secondary that will play without their top corner.
PHILADELPHIA 26 (-7) Denver 17: With the Eagles passing game clicking and their run defense effectively stopping Knowshon Moreno, it will be up to Kyle Orton to keep the Broncos in the game. He will succeed for a while, but Asante Samuel gets a pick-six late to seal the deal.
ARIZONA 34 (-14) St. Louis 14: This should be a call your final number type game for the Cards offense with Kurt Warner, Beanie Wells and Anquan Boldin making their fantasy owners quite happy.
SAN FRANCISCO 24 Detroit 13 (+12.5): Alex Smith, top-10 fantasy QB in Week 16. No, pigs are not flying outside my window, but passes will be against the Lions horrid pass defense.
INDIANAPOLIS 20 NY Jets 16 (+5.5): Oh, I still think the Colts will sit some of their starters in the second half, but Peyton Manning will generate more offense in two quarters than Mark Sanchez in four. Keep checking the reports out of Indy, but outside of Dallas Clark (position scarcity and all), I would have a hard time using any of the Colts players because of the possible/likely resting...
Dallas 31 (-6.5) Washington 17: My sometimes day job sent me out to Redskins Park Thursday to cover the home team's Xmas Eve practice. They talked a good game about not giving up and the one time top-5 defense hopes to find their early season form, but the defensive line is beat up and the secondary beatable. Miles Austin, Marion Barber and Tony Romo owners, fear not.
Minnesota 24 Chicago 20 (+7): Heard Adam Schefter bring up a stat talking about Brett Favre's inability to win in the cold. Basically Favre has not won a game with the opening temp 39 degrees or lower since the game where Michael Strahan set the sack record by taking the QB down. If the Bears offense actually had any sense of life, that streak would continue, but Adrian Peterson finds the end zone twice for the win.
Survivor Picks: These are my personal picks each week for my various (cough, cough) pools
Week 16: Green Bay (the Cardinals are the safer play against the Rams, but being that it s a division game and for other strategic reasons unique to my game, I'm going with the Pack)
Week 15 - Houston (Another week, another pick against the Rams. All things being equal, I would take Denver, but need them for Week 17 in case Chargers have nothing to play for)
Week 14 - Tennessee (If Kerry Collins starts and I get spooked, will jump to the Pats. Otherwise, Titans roll)
Week 13 - Cincinnati (Their offense has been off, but Benson is back and I mean, they play the Lions)
Week 12 - Dallas (As stated above, it is hard to know what to make of the Cowboys, but on a short week and coming off a big win, hard to see Oakland winning. San Diego is my fallback)
Week 11 - Jacksonville (This is my least confident call in weeks, but I'll take my chances against a team (Buffalo) with a new coach and new QB. For the faint of heart, Minnesota, New Orleans and Pittsburgh are fine if you can still use them)
Week 10 - Minnesota (Obviously taking the Purple People Eaters against the toothless Lions isn't a tough call. Not sure I have the guts to pick the Dolphins. For those who don't mind going on the road, take the Saints)
Week 9 - Atlanta (A very sketchy week. Falcons matchup not ideal, playing a top-5 defense and coming off a bye, but better than taking Seahawks, Jaguars or Packers on the road)
Week 8 - Chicago (Colts are good if available. Chargers are ok, but hard to trust the Bolts and it is a division game)
Week 7 - Indianapolis (the Colts and Pats are the only worthy options this week, even with the road and neutral sites)
Week 6 - Green Bay (Jacksonville against the Rams is the gutsier call, but another week of strong options)
Week 5 - Philadelphia (though there are waaaaaay to many good options this week so everyone "should" advance)
Week 4 - San Francisco (Chicago is a close second)
Week 3 - Baltimore
Week 2 - Washington, Green Bay (and one pool goes by the wayside)
Week 1 - New Orleans, Baltimore
