Butler is no Cinderella Story

For some, be it a casual college hoops fans or those snobbish blue blood program types that look at those other conferences from an altitude of 30,000 feet, I can understand why Butler making the Final Four might seem like a true Cinderella story. Tiny school with an enrollment of around 4,000 students. Member of the not-so-sexy Horizon League. Play their home games in Hinkle Field House where the movie Hoosiers was filmed. In fact, the star of the real life team that was portrayed in the movie, Bobby Plump, actually attended Butler. However in this case, even though that resumé might walk like a duck and sound like a duck, there is no quacking going on once one takes a true look at the Bulldogs.

First of all, what constitutes a college basketball Cinderella? We can argue about specific teams, but in general they cannot be from a power conference school: this one is a lock. NC State, Villanova and Kansas had shocking championship runs in the 80's, but none was nor should have been considered a Cinderella because of their conference ties. They got their act together when it counted, but had issues much of the season or would have been considered a threat earlier on.

Beyond the conference check mark, Cinderellas are ranked outside the Top 25. They remained under the radar most if not all of the regular season. The program lacks any kind of sustained success. They have had little to no recent success in the NCAA tournament even if they have made the field in prior years. They are seeded ninth or lower in the field. They do not have arguably the best potential pro player on the floor...Fair enough?

OK, so where does Butler fit within that criteria. Time for the closer look:

They are ranked outside the top-25...When the college basketball world was not as close to being a level playing field as it is today, it was rare for a non-power school to be ranked, especially in the early portions of the season. Heading into the 2009-10 season Butler was preseason ranked 11th in the AP poll, 10th in the USA Today Coaches' Poll and have remained ranked in the coaches poll all season. Oh, and this follows up three straight years of landing in the final Top 25 poll, finishing as high as 14th in the USA Today poll after the 2008 season.

They remained under the radar most if not all of the regular season...Even before the NCAA Tournament began, Butler had notched wins over fellow Sweet 16 schools Ohio State and Xavier plus tourney participant Siena, who many a pundit had predicted would win a game or two in March. On the other hand, a true Cinderella like Cornell, who gained notoriety during the regular season for losing a close contest at Kansas, scored their biggest RPI regular season win against Big East non-factor St. John's

The program lacks any kind of sustained success...Butler has now made the NCAA Tournament four straight seasons. On the flip side, power conference schools like NC State (2006) and Cincinnati (2005) have not made the field for several years running. In-state rival Indiana has been left out of the fun the past two seasons and were joined on the sideline this season by fellow big boy programs North Carolina, UCLA and Connecticut.

Just to be clear, the Bulldogs uber-youthful looking 33-year-old coach Brad Stevens did not create the Butler hoops program. The recent wave of success started way back in 1989 when Stevens was likely dreaming of a life in hoops in between his paper route and class trip to the Amish country. Under Barry Collier, now the Butler Athletic Director, Butler had five 20-win campaigns and reached the NCAA Tourney three times in four years. After getting the Bulldogs to the NCAA's in the 1999-2000 season, he took off for Nebraska and the team was turned over to then-assistant Thad Matta, who took over and turned a first round upset over Wake Forest in the NCAA's into a gig at Xavier before moving on to his current job at Ohio State. The assistant pipeline then delivered Todd Lickliter, who posted a 131-61 record in six seasons, including a school-first run to the Sweet 16 during the 02-03 campaign and a 29-7 record in his final year before taking off for Iowa. Even if one wants to call the Bulldogs pre-Final Four run nothing more than them being a big fish in a small pond, note that in his three years since replacing Lickliter, Stevens has a staggering 88-14 record.

They have had little to no recent success in the NCAA tournament even if they have made the field...Prior to their run to the Sweet 16 this season, Cornell had never won an NCAA Tourney game. Brigham Young was o-fer before knocking of Florida. During this run of four consecutive NCAA appearances, Butler has made it to at least the Sweet 16 twice, including this season. They reached the Sweet 16 in 2007 when in the second round they defeated Maryland, the 2002 NCAA Champion. In comparison, the Terps have not reached the second weekend since the 2003 season.

They are seeded ninth or lower in the field...Texas, who at one point this season was ranked number one in the country, was seeded eighth in the NCAA field this year. Northern Iowa, which pulled off the shocker of the tournament with a win over No. 1 Kansas, was seeded ninth. Cornell clocked in as a 12th seed. Butler was a five seed in the West, which put them one slot ahead of power conference schools Marquette, Tennessee and Notre Dame.

They do not have arguably best potential pro player on the floor...According to ESPN.com's Chad Ford, the top ranked NBA prospect remaining in the field is not Duke's Kyle Singler or West Virginia's Da'Sean Butler, but rather Butler sophomore forward Gordon Hayward, who comes in at #18 overall. In addition, Hayward and teammate Shelvin Mack were members of the US Under-19 basketball team that competed in the World Championships last season with Mack acting as captain.

Last but not least, the baseline of a true Cinderella story speaks of an underdog. Um, hello, Butler is actually a 1.5 point favorite over Michigan State this weekend.

With all that said, do I think Butler wins on Saturday? Yes, yes I do. I mean, did you see how they handled Syracuse and Kansas State last weekend? While the Bulldogs want to play a style that keeps the score in the 50's and 60's - they rank ninth in the country in scoring defense - they have multiple players that can light it up on offense when called upon. They score primarily on the perimeter, but also hold their opponents to 31.7 percent from the beyond the arc. If they have a late lead, the Bulldogs will be hard to catch as they rank 26th in free throw percentage.

Now, Butler may very well find the bright lights of the big stage too much to handle; time will tell. While they have height in the form of Hayward and Matt Howard, the Bulldogs are not a bulky squad and lack a shot blocking presence. And only a fool would be willing to ignore the Tom Izzo factor on the Michigan State sideline, not to mention the Duke-West Virginia winner looming on the other side of the bracket.

If they lose, surely the pundit class will churn out clichés about carriages finally turning into pumpkins or glass slippers not fitting after all. If so, they will be short-sighted, not to mention wrong. Only one team gets to be crowned champion, but Butler's success and resumé dictate they had as good a chance as many when the tournament began whether the masses realized it or not. Those that still do not see the light are just modern day ugly stepsister types who are simply too bitter that their own wart-laden team is sitting at home to notice what a beautiful and legitimate ride this has been.