Recapping the offseason and a fantasy look ahead, AFC West
With the completion of the NFL Draft and the main portion of free agency in the books, it is time to start review the moves made and start looking ahead to the regular and fantasy seasons. Today I turn to the AFC West, looking at the best draft related move teams made, holes remaining, fantasy sleepers, players that have had a change in value and what is the top question for fantasy owners to ponder with training camp still about two months away. Catch previous posts on the NFC East and stay tuned for the NFC North...
Denver Broncos
Best Use of Draft Pick - Eric Decker:
Unlike his fellow rookie receiver Demaryius Thomas, who still needs to learn how to run NFL quality routes, Decker enters the NFL as a near fully formed receiver. Even though he was often a one-man-gang with the Golden Gophers, Decker has shown the ability to produce (in 2008 he went hauled in 84 passes, scored seven touchdowns and went for over 1,000 yards) and make both the easy and tough catches. To illustrate that last point, here is a great stat from CBSSports.com: Minnesota quarterbacks have targeted Decker for 354 passes during his career and he dropped just three in 45 games (0.085%). In other words, Braylon Edwards he is not. The 6-3 Decker slid in the draft due to a foot injury that cost him time last season and that - plus the normal rookie receiver curve - limits his 2010 fantasy value. Once healthy, he could easily become the Broncos leader in receptions for years to come.
Still in search of - Stability:
From the firing of their Super Bowl winning coach to trading away their two most productive, albeit disgruntled offensive stars, it is almost amazing the Broncos have not completely hit rock bottom over the past 12-18 months. The way the Broncos need to look at the situation is what one of my favorite characters on "Lost" says; whatever happened, happened. The Tim Tebow pick had as much to do with the notion of adding a player that won't rock the boat as much as anything. Almost regardless of record, this season will be a success if the Broncos can simply avoid another confrontational type offseason and use that to build upon going forward.
Fantasy Sleeper - Jabar Gaffney:
So Marshall is gone, now what. Eddie Royal is coming off a brutal season and while he would benefit by moving to the slot, the Broncos have yet to say if this will happen. Brandon Stokely is nothing more than solid depth and the two rookies will likely have at least some level of adjustment. That leaves the Gaffney as the Orton's likely top outside target to start the season. While the nine-year vet has never been anything close to a fantasy star, he did catch at least three passes in 10 games last season, including hauling in 14 receptions for 213 yards in the final game when Marshall was suspended. Gaffney also has a shot to get off to a quick start as the Broncos play porous secondaries (Jags, Seahawks) to start the season and will likely need to throw plenty against the Colts the following week.
Focusing on the fantasy value of - Tim Tebow and Brady Quinn:
In this context, we are talking about keeper value. For any rookie QB, I think the wise course of action is to sit them on the sideline for at least one full season and the case of Tebow, who has much in the way of adjustments to make, that should be the case regardless. I'm with those that question his style in a pro offense, but at some point the Broncos are going to give him a shot. Considering it is in his football DNA to be a runner, I think it's reasonable to assume that he could augment potential so-so passing stats with yards and scores on the ground so in deep dynasty leagues, I might roll the dice if roster space permits (though Jimmy Clausen is in the best situation of the rookie QBs). For Quinn, it is hard to judge because odds are his next legit chance at a starting gig comes on another team as Kyle Orton is the starter and Tebow the long term hope. While I was not a fan of the former Notre Dame star coming out of college, he has still only played in a grand total of 14 games in three seasons and I expect some team (Buffalo? Washington) to make a play for him, maybe as soon as this season.
Biggest Fantasy Question - Without their top playmaker, will Denver be a viable fantasy offense?
Two seasons ago the Broncos had a prolific offense directed by the offensive "genius" Mike Shanahan and staring two up-and-coming young stars in Jay Cutler and Brandon Marshall. Now that Marshall has followed the other two out the door - and do not forget TE Tony Scheffler was also traded - they have the unproven Josh McDaniels, the ordinary Kyle Orton and nothing resembling a Pro Bowl receiver at this moment. One piece they do have to build around is Knowshon Moreno, who had a solid all-around rookie campaign and the Broncos drafted two offensive lineman to help him improve upon his 3.8 ypc average. If Moreno can become the focal point, then Broncos will not need to rely heavily on Orton, which is a good thing as he is a more is less kind of passer. There is enough here to project their offense being fantasy competent most weeks and Moreno has a shot to be a Top-20 player at his position, but there are unlikely any other weekly fantasy stars here unless Royal finds his 2008 mojo.







