Mocking The Draft
Mock drafting season is just about over, so it is time to put on the adult-sized jersey and start making picks that count. This month, on behalf of FFToolbox.com, I participated in the influential FanEx Expert League draft. It took approximately three weeks to complete – people claim to have lives and work - but as far as I know, everyone made it out in one piece (though I felt like punching someone when they started hoarding tight ends as I was waiting and waiting for them to fall). Among the other participants included USA Today, Fantasy Football Index and Fantasy Sharks.
The entire draft is listed below with my overall analysis and rationale for my selections at the end of each round. Plus there are various links included to previous fantasy football articles and discussion to help add additional and detailed insight.
League: 12 teams, points per reception (PPR)
Rounds: 20
Lineup: QB – 1, RB -2, WR – 3, TE -1, K -1, Def – 1, Flex -1 (RB/WR/TE)
As I mentioned in this Fantasy Football Drafting Philosophy article, learning your league rules is step number one when it comes to developing a specific drafting strategy. Based on the requirements of starting three receivers with a chance for a fourth as a flex, my goal is to have three on the roster by the fifth or sixth round. That will also be around the time the viable options begin to dwindle. Waiting on QB and TE is also part of the plan, though I will take the top players early if the value is right. As for running back, I would love to get a top dog early, but picking 12/13 means that going WR/WR is a distinct possibility. Either way, will load up on RB depth in rounds 5-10…ok, BREAK!
Round 1
1) Chris Johnson, RB, Ten
2) Adrian Peterson, RB, Min
3) Maurice Jones-Drew, RB, Jax
4) Ray Rice, RB, Bal
5) Frank Gore, RB, SF
6) Michael Turner, RB, Atl
7) Andre Johnson, WR, Hou
8) Steven Jackson, TB, Stl
9) Larry Fitzgerald, WR, Ari
10) Brandon Marshall, WR, Mia
11) Reggie Wayne, WR, Ind
12) Randy Moss, WR, NE - FFToolbox
1st round analysis: I anticipated taking at least one WR with one of my wraparound picks, but never thought it would be Moss. And if that situation did occur, would have also assumed it was because QBs and RBs jumped ahead of him, not four receivers, wow. I rank Moss second behind A. Johnson (actually, I do not even have Marshall or Wayne in my top-5 among wide outs). Reports have Moss rocking training camp and doing it in the last year of contract. Giddy up… Overall top five went as expected, though you can make arguments for Rice over MJD…Turner has been going behind Andre Johnson in several mocks I have done, but I am largely fine with the decision here, even in PPR. There are just not a lot of frontline backs…
13) Rashard Mendenhall, RB, Pit - FFToolbox
14) Roddy White, WR, Atl
15) Miles Austin, WR, Dal
16) DeAngelo Williams, RB, Car
17) Calvin Johnson, WR, Det
18) Jamaal Charles, WR, KC
19) Ryan Mathews, RB, SD
20) Cedric Benson, RB, Cin
21) Marques Colston, WR, NO
22) Greg Jennings, WR, GB
23) Aaron Rodgers, QB, GB
24) DeSean Jackson, WR, Phi
2nd round analysis: Since this is a PPR league, I could easily justify taking another receiver in the second, especially since Austin, Johnson and White are available. Also, this format is not ideal for a lightly used pass catcher like Mendenhall, who will also be without his starting QB for at least the first four games and his projected starting RT all year. So why did I go with the Steelers bruising back?
- he is one of the few starting RBs that essentially has the job to himself
- Even though there is more RB depth than ever because of all the RBBC situations, I did not want to wait until 36/37 to get my first RB (though I would have if Mendenhall was gone)
- Pittsburgh has stated that they intend to run more than they did during the pass-happy and non-playoff reaching 2009 season
- Oh, and he is good. Some questions for sure, but not enough to have me pass.
Call me risk-adverse if you must, but Mendenhall is in a great situation and his potential for major yards and scores on the ground outweighs the downside…and look at the backs that came after him. Williams is a stud, but so is his timeshare partner Jonathan Stewart. With Thomas Jones looming large in KC, I have Charles lower on my draft board. Mathews is a better value in the back half of round two than the top…give me Calvin J, Austin and Jennings (personal preference on the latter) over White and Colston…Rodgers is my top QB this year as well…
25) Steve Smith, WR, NYG
26) Anquan Boldin, WR, Bal
27) Drew Brees, QB, NO
28) Peyton Manning, QB, Ind
29) LeSean McCoy, RB, Phi
30) Steve Smith, WR, Car
31) Shonn Greene, RB, NYJ
32) Ryan Grant, RB, GB
33) Pierre Thomas, RB, NO - FFToolbox
34) Wes Welker, WR, NE
35) Knowshon Moreno, RB, Den
36) Beanie Wells, RB, Ari
3rd round analysis – The Panthers Steve Smith was the last of the elite receivers I was targeting, so my attention turned towards the various RB2 options. Three names were on my "get him" list and two of them were snatched up at 31-32, so it was time to be bold. In order to secure the best back left in Thomas, I dealt my 9th round pick (108 overall) for an 11th (125) so I could move up three spots in the third. Talent is not the question with Thomas, just touches, and I am expecting an increased number of them for him this year (the pick was actually made before potential goal line vulture Lydell Hamilton went down with a season-ending injury)…even though you and I literally caught as many passes as Greene did last year I love his potential even in this format (and no, not worried about the hovering LaDainian Tomlinson, a.k.a. LT2)…not getting the love for McCoy. Yes, he plays in a high-scoring offense and its job to lose. However he did little with his opportunities a year ago when Brian Westbrook went down. The Eagles brought in Mike Bell to be the goal line option. Oh, and Andy Reid likes running as much as he likes shaving his mustache.
37) Michael Crabtree, WR, SF - FFToolbox
38) Reggie Bush, RB, NO
39) Tony Romo, QB, Dal
40) Matt Forte, RB, Chi
41) Dallas Clark, TE, Ind
42) Matt Schaub, QB, Hou
43) Tom Brady, QB, NE
44) Philip Rivers, QB, SD
45) Ronnie Brown, RB, Mia
46) Hakeem Nicks, WR, NYG
47) Joseph Addai, RB, Ind
48) Chad Ochocinco, WR, Cin
4th round analysis – The debate at 37 was to get one of the remaining high-end receivers or grab a star QB. Either way there was no logical reason to expect that level of player to be available when I pick in the fifth, but the difference for me was the depth at QB. If I do not get a top-7 QB, then I am likely to wait 2-3 rounds – at least – before selecting one. On the flip side, my board shows a significant receiver drop off coming up quicker than Chris Johnson turning the corner at the line of scrimmage. Receiver it is…No issue with any of the receivers picked in this round, but I like Crabtree ripping through the weak NFC West secondaries…Would like Rivers even more if the Charges offense was not dealing with multiple holdouts, but the mouthy QB backs up his talk with big numbers on the field. He makes his wide receivers, not the other way around.
49) Antonio Gates, TE, SD
50) Vernon Davis, TE, SF
51) Jahvid Best, RB, Det
52) Dwayne Bowe, WR, KC
53) Jason Witten, TE, Dal
54) Mike Sims-Walker, WR, Jax
55) Jermichael Finley, TE, GB
56) Sidney Rice, WR, Min
57) Vincent Jackson, WR, SD
58) C.J. Spiller, RB, Buf
59) Jonathan Stewart, RB, Car - FFToolbox
60) Brent Celek, TE, Phi
5th round analysis: In mock draft after mock draft this year, the fifth round has been the home to the tight end run, so no surprises that five went here. While I have Clark at the top, especially in PPR, I cannot argue against someone taking any of the top-5, with Celek and Tony Gonzalez not far behind. If I can work up the nerve to take a guy who has only a handful of starts compared to vets like the aforementioned Clark, Gates and Witten, then Finley is the guy I want and will take…Sims-Walker was one of my correct calls last year, but now he will face the opposition's best corner each week. I like the talent, but will tread lightly…as you can see I moved up one whole spot, swapping picks in the 5th and 6th. Yes, I was working the phones (ok, really just email) to secure even the minutest advantage, but getting a stud like Stewart at this point is hardly trivial. To be fair, "Daily Show" had yet to resume practicing (heel) when I selected him, but he missed much of the previous preseason and still rocked for 1,100 yards and 10 scores when it mattered. The injury does not look like a long-term issue and since I rank him closer, if not inside the top-15 among backs, you know I loved getting him as the 25th RB off the board. Only downside is I missed out on Celek, but as you will see, I did not have a problem waiting on tight end this draft.
61) Hines Ward, WR, Pit
62) Percy Harvin, WR, Min - FFToolbox
63) Clinton Portis, RB, Was
64) Mike Wallace, WR, Pit
65) Jay Cutler, QB, Chi
66) Terrell Owens, WR, Cin
67) Tony Gonzalez, TE, Atl
68) Thomas Jones, RB, KC
69) Justin Forsett, RB, Sea
70) Jeremy Maclin, WR, Phi
71) Johnny Knox, WR, Chi
72) Marion Barber, RB, Dal
6th round analysis: The trade up also caused me to miss out on Ward, but I like Harvin. That pick took place while he was out with the migraine, but before Sidney Rice had surgery. Both of those factors were obviously considered (Favre having not signed yet was not), but the guy is a stud and the potential of Rice missing time was enough to take the "risk", especially with the receiver pool thinning. Fine taking the chance on him as my WR3, but not if my two…Very high on Wallace, who was the receiver runner up to Harvin. Maclin is another WR I like around here as well…On the flip side, even though I am still sans QB and TE, neither Cutler nor Gonzalez was on my radar. I'm just not buying Cutler's decision-making even with the help from new OC Mike Martz. The waning interest in Gonzo comes from him coming off a career-low 10.4 ypc and my lack of fantasy confidence in Matt Ryan.
73) Felix Jones, RB, Dal
74) Santana Moss, WR, Was
75) Darren McFadden, RB, Oak
76) Donald Driver, WR, GB
77) Owen Daniels, TE, Hou
78) Robert Meachem, WR, NO
79) Michael Bush, RB, Oak
80) Fred Jackson, RB, Buf
81) Dez Bryant, WR, Dal
82) T.J. Houshmandzadeh, WR, Sea
83) Eli Manning, QB, NYG
84) Kevin Kolb, QB, Phi - FFToolbox
7th round analysis: With three RB and WR on the roster already, I was fine with going with Kolb, who is both overhyped and possibly undervalued at the same time. I still plan to pair him with a solid rotational QB in the next few rounds. Not totally ready to go all-in on a kid based off of two starts, but he sure looks good…Barber and Jones went back-to-back to the same team, interesting strategy. I've stated elsewhere in a "bold prediction" segment that Barber will lead all NFC East backs in fantasy points so I'm down with him. Less so on Jones, but if you missed out on RB earlier, he is the kind of upside play you want…Both Raiders backs are on my RB3/4 radar. Bush gets the nod between the two, but something tells me DMac will remind folks why he was highly touted prospect not long ago. The power of Jason Campbell – or more to the point, no JaMarcus Russell - works wonders…
85) Ahmad Bradshaw, RB, NYG - FFToolbox
86) Jerome Harrison, RB, Cle
87) Heath Miller, TE, Pit
88) Carson Palmer, QB. Cin
89) Santonio Holmes, WR, Pit
90) Malcom Floyd, WR, SD
91) Pierre Garcon, WR, Ind
92) Derrick Mason, WR, Bal
93) Chris Cooley, TE, Was
94) Brandon Jacobs, RB, NYG
95) Ricky Williams, RB, Mia
96) Steve Breaston, WR, Ari
8th round analysis: Yes, I took Bradshaw over Jacobs and the trend is now going that way. The Giants will be in fewer shootouts this season, so they will run plenty, meaning both backs will get theirs. I just see no reason to believe Jacobs will live up to the hype his name conjures up, but Bradshaw will make the explosive plays out of this backfield…Cooley is looking strong in preseason, no lingering injury here…QB's can make the receiver more than the other way around, as we saw last year with Peyton Manning throwing successfully to unknowns Garcon and Austin Collie. Look for something similar with the Rivers-Floyd combo in SD this year…
97) Carnell Williams, RB, TB
98) Zach Miller, TE, Oak
99) Arian Foster, RB, Hou
100) Braylon Edwards, WR, NYJ
101) Jerricho Cotchery, WR, NYJ
102) Ben Tate, RB, Hou
103) Devin Aromashhodu, WR, Chi
104) Tim Hightower, RB, Ari
105) Kellen Winslow, TE, TB
106) Jabar Gaffney, WR, Den
107) Brett Favre, QB, Min
108) Matt Ryan, QB, Atl
9th round analysis: No pick in this round as a result of dealing up for Pierre Thomas in the third…One owner is hoarding tight ends and now with Cooley, Daniels, Miller and Winslow off the board, I am likely to wait a loooong time before I take one…Foster is now going a couple of rounds higher with Tate out for the season…of the Jets trio of receivers, go Holmes if you need upside, Cotchery if you want a steady option and Edwards if you want to throw your remote control repeatedly when he drops pass after pass…Touchdown Tim Hightower went 68 picks after Wells. That's the kind of value a guy can fall in love with…This is earlier than I've seen Gaffney go, but he is a sleeper fav of mine, especially a round or two later.
109) Ben Roethlisberger, QB, Pit - FFToolbox
110) Austin Collie, WR, Ind
111) Donovan McNabb, QB, Phi
112) Kenny Britt, WR, Ten
113) Devin Hester, WR, Chi
114) Joe Flacco, QB, Bal
115) Golden Tate, WR, Sea
116) Willis McGahee, RB, Bal
117) LaDainian Tomlinson, RB, NYJ
118) John Carlson, TE, Sea
119) Visanthe Shiancoe, TE, Min
120) Steve Slaton, RB, Hou
10th round analysis: All things being equal I would take Flacco over Big Ben and be fine with him as my starter, However, he has the same Week 8 bye as Kolb and since I am not confident I will be able to make a deal during the season in this league , I went with the Steelers QB. To be clear, in one of my "friends" leagues, I would not have let that stop me from taking Flacco, but both passers are very good value this late…We are clearly now in the pick and hope part of the receiver options. Even though his QB is more runner than thrower, I'd take Britt enormous talent over the others picked here…Was hoping Carlson would make it to me in the 11th. Oh well, the TE wait continues…
121) Chester Taylor, RB, Chi
122) Nate Burleson, WR, Det
123) Matthew Stafford, QB, Det
124) Eddie Royal, WR, Den
125) Donald Brown, RB, Ind- FFToolbox
126) Darren Sproles, RB, SD
127) Laurence Maroney, RB, NE
128) Lee Evans, WR, Buf
129) Laurent Robinson, WR, Stl
130) Mohamed Massaquoi, WR, Cle
131) Montario Hardesty, RB, Cle
132) Julian Edelman, WR, NE - FFToolbox
11th round analysis: Brown was one of my biggest swing and misses last season, but the Colts situation has not really changed as Addai remains an uninspiring play. If he can stay healthy this year and Addai doesn't (and he suffered a concussion in the Colts third preseason game), Brown could be a RB2 play at points. I like that potential at this point in the draft…With my own pick, I added some much needed receiver depth. Edelman has already shown he can be a Wes Welker clone, which is ideal in PPR. The Pats need to figure how to get both of them on the field together and I think they will…I would love to believe in Maroney, but three years of pain and misery have given me a negative Pavlovian-type reaction when I hear that name. The horror…
133) Chris Chambers, WR, KC
134) Dustin Keller, TE, NYJ
135) Larry Johnson, RB, Was
136) Mike Williams, WR, TB
137) Vince Young, QB, Ten
138) Roy Williams, WR, Dal
139) Jacoby Jones, WR, Hou
140) Tashard Choice, RB, Dal - FFToolbox
141) NYJ Defense
142) Lance Moore, WR, NO
143) Kevin Smith, RB, Det
144) Alex Smith, QB, SF
12th round analysis: Keller was next on the TE hit parade, but he was gone before I could take him. Instead I added to my RB depth with Choice, who will go from being the Cowboys third string to their best all-around fantasy option when inevitably one of the two injury-prone players ahead of him goes down…Williams is getting crazy preseason love. He has first round NFL talent, but dropped to the fourth due to off-the-field matters. Best thing for now is Bucs will be losing majority of time, so garbage points galore…The first defense is off the board. Jets are clearly good, but I'll wait a bit.
145) Chad Henne, QB, Mia
146) Green Bay Defense
147) Dexter McCluster, WR, KC
148) Jordan Shipley, WR, Cin
149) Legedu Naanee, WR, SD
150) Brian Westbrook, RB, SF
151) Leon Washington, RB, Sea
152) Jeremy Shockey, TE, NO
153) Toby Gerhart, RB, Min
154) Bernard Scott, RB, Cin
155) Correll Buckhalter, RB, Den
156) Greg Olsen, TE, Chi - FFToolbox
13th round analysis: Relying on a Mike Martz system tight end works as well historically as having Vinny Cerrato run your front office. However, Olsen is crazy talented and the Bears appear to be trying to get him involved. A risk, sure, but taking it on a highly skilled player is one I am willing to take. For the record, would have taken him and others over Shockey…Very, very high on Henne even though he falls to the back-end of the QB2 run…Scott may be the number one pure RB fantasy handcuff option this year
157) Philadelphia Defense - FFToolbox
158) Nate Washington, WR, Ten
159) Javon Ringer, RB, Ten
160) Chaz Schillens, WR, Oak
161) Minnesota Defense
162) Demaryius Thomas, WR, Den
163) Derrick Ward, RB, TB
164) Matt Moore, QB, Car
165) Matt Leinart, QB, Ari
166) Kyle Orton, QB, Den
167) Josh Freeman, QB, TB
168) Matt Cassel, QB, KC
14th round analysis: By the team I pick again the top-8 or so defenses will be gone and since I do not have a pressing need, time to take one. There is some concern about how the Eagles will do in the post-Jim Johnson era, but their aggressive style remains…Of these deeper QB options, I would lean towards taking risks on Cassel or Freeman as pure backups, but Orton makes for the best bet if you need a low-end rotational option.
This recap is right now longer than Antonio Bryan's stay with the Bengals, so if you want to see the remaining six rounds or the entire draft laid out, click here. Here are my final picks along with another drafted player I like in each round…
15th – Mike Thomas, WR, Jax; Bernard Berrian, WR, Min
16th – Tony Scheffler, TE, Det; Dallas Defense
17th – James Jones, WR, GB; Kareem Huggins, RB, TB
18th – Mike Bell, RB, Phi;
19th – Michael Vick, QB, Phi; Mario Manningham, WR, NYG
20th – Shayne Graham, K, Bal; Keiland Williams, RB, Was
It is officially depth and flyer time and the Jags second receiver covers both categories. The 5-9 Thomas is a speedster who should see a lot of single coverage opposite Sims-Walker…Scheffler was rescued from Josh McDaniels and sent to the Lions, so expect something closer to his 2008 stats when he hauled in 16.1 yards over 40 receptions…Donald Driver has lingering knee issues and if he goes down, Jones comes in. That means having a starting WR in the Packers juggernaut of an offense. He should get 4-5 scores regardless…If you listened to the FFToolbox podcast last week you heard me talk up Bell as a sleeper behind LeSean McCoy. At a minimum he will tote the ball at the goal line. If McCoy struggles like he did a year ago, Bell could split the carries and then, who knows…With Roethlisberger out the first four weeks at least and nothing but the likes of Trent Edwards available, I added Vick as insurance behind Kolb…Graham was one of the last kickers selected, but he is in a great spot. Shows why there is no reason to rush on this position…
Final Depth Chart (projected starts in bold/italics)
QB: Kolb, Roethlisberger, Vick
RB: Mendenhall, P. Thomas Bradshaw, D. Brown, Choice, M. Bell
WR: R. Moss, Crabtree, Harvin, Edelman, M. Thomas, J. Jones
TE: Olsen Scheffler
FL: Stewart (RB)
DF: Philadelphia
K: Graham
The running backs are the strength of this team and could be down unstoppable if the Saints give Thomas a heavier workload and Stewart ends up being the Panthers singular running game weapon…Receiver depth is questionable, but all three are the kind of upside plays I like. Moss will be a beast this year and the young duo of Crabtree and Harvin are on the cusp of cracking the group of elite playmakers in the league…QB is solid and potentially stellar, while TE is a work in progress, but the two players in the roster have done it before. Overall, I'm feeling good. Let's get it on!
