FFToolbox "Experts" Mock Draft; An inside look at how I put my squad together

Another week, another mock draft, but for the first time all the participants were part of the FFToolbox world. Instead of taking days and weeks to finish up (standard practice in the industry, especially when folks have day jobs, live on either coast or can't break away from watching "The Hills"), our group pounded out the entire draft, all18 rounds on Tuesday night.

Not sure why, but up to this point I have not felt my fantasy mojo click in just yet. Perhaps with distractions like the World Cup, the NBA Playoffs and Free Agency, the local additions of Stephen Strasburg and John Wall, plus the reality setting in that "Lost" is never coming back, i simply have not been focused. With only one mock in the book, I was ready to get the neurons rockin and lock horns with my fellow FFToolbox writers and for the most part, I was OK with the results and could be "Ron Artest winning an NBA Title" excited if some of the calculated risks pay off (The league is not playing out, but don't think I won't be monitoring my choices). I will provide my own take on how I cam to make each decision, parceling out the picks here throughout the day, but let me know where you think I made my mark or went off the rails like Vinny Cerrato. Here is a direct link to my squad.

First off , here is the setup:

Rules: Passing TD: 4pts, Passing INT: -1pt, 20 Passing Yds: 1pt, Rushing/Receiving TD: 6pts, 10 Rushing/Receiving Yds: 1pt, 1 Reception: 1pt
Roster: Start 1QB, 2RB, 3WR, 1TE, 1FLEX, 1K, and 1DEF; Bench: 8
League: PPR; 12 teams; serpentine draft

Round 1 (3) - Ray Rice, RB, Baltimore: Just like there is a decision in all league formats with the number one pick between Chris Johnson and Adrian Peterson, the same is true for the third pick between Rice and Maurice Jones-Drew. I have always been a huge fan of the human bowling ball and expect him to have another strong season, but there is definitely more potential downside with the Jags offense then there is with the improving Ravens. Rice, who finished with 2,000+ yards from scrimmage, led the Ravens and all NFL backs with 78 receptions. Even with the addition of Anquan Boldin, Rice still has a great chance to led the team in catches and he could improve on his eight touchdowns unless Willis McGahee finds the end zone 12 times on relatively few touches. If he gets more looks around the goal line - and can stay healthy of course - it will not shock me in the least that the former Rutgers star cracks the top-2 fantasy runners this year.

Round 2 (22) - Reggie Wayne, WR, Indianapolis: My hope with this pick was to land an upside runner (Jamaal Charles went 19), or one of the two top QB's (Rodgers went in the 1st, Brees 20th) or a receiver I like this year. At this point of the draft, that probably means Austin (17) or Marshall (21), but they were gone. I've never been a big Roddy White fan and was hoping Greg Jennings would slide to me in the third. That left Wayne. OK, bad news first...the nine-year vet's production tailed off over the second half of last season and his 12.6 ypc average represented his lowest average over the past six seasons. Also, with the emergence of Pierre Garcon and Austin Collie, the expected return of Anthony Gonzalez and the presence of Dallas Clark, the Colts passing game is as diverse as it has been in some time. Perhaps more importantly, Wayne is currently talking about holding out and if that threat continues into camp, it will become a lot harder to draft him over those options I mentioned.

(Ben, that does not exactly sound like a ringing endorsement for the guy you just took at No. 22).
Yes, not trying to be a Debbie Downer, but those are the facts, but so are these. The good news is that he is coming off his sixth straight 1,000 yard season, his third with at least 10 touchdowns and the second time he reached the century mark in receptions. Oh, and he has the Manning guy throwing him the ball. The Colts will once again be a high-powered attack and I would not bet on Wayne not getting his numbers. For now, I'm going with the you can't go wrong taking the Colts top receiver, but not vibing on Wayne as much as I have in year's past.

Round 3 (27) - Marques Colston, WR, New Orleans: Most years I would certainly be looking to take a RB now, but this season, especially in this draft slot, I am inclined to take two of the top 12 receivers as I think there is a decent drop into the next category. White and Jennings went in between my last pick, as did Manning, Brady. That effectively took QB off the table here (because of Manning's selection) and I preferred the receiver options over the the backs. (I am not in love with Beanie Wells or Ryan Grant in PPR leagues and I just do not trust that the Saints will allow Pierre Thomas to get 18+ touches a game). Sidney Rice is my pick IF his hip injury proves to be no big deal, but for now there is enough of a red flag to have me go with the safer pick in Colston. These are IMO the final two of that large top group, plus this gives me a piece of the Saints passing game. So far, so good.

Round 4 (46) - Jahvid Best, RB, Detroit: First let me say that I had already written my analysis on the next three picks, but a computer glitch wiped them away forever. Bitter. At least that feeling is only towards my loss of work and not this pick, even if taking an oft-injured scatback playing for the Lions is a touch risky. But as the saying goes, no risk, no reward and of the remaining options (especially once Philip Rivers and Dallas Clark were picked), I like the home run potential offered by the former Cal Bear the best. The uber-quick Best has devastating perimeter skills as a runner and receiver. Same goes for Felix Jones, who was also available and also has his own history of injuries. While Best - who enters the NFL in good health - has the Lions backfield to himself, Jones will at the very least lose goal line touches - and likely more - to Marion Barber. (Kevin Smith is said to be making good progress from knee surgery, but he will likely be a only a handcuff for Best this season). A 100% healthy Ronnie Brown would be the call, but he is coming back from an injury, still shares the workload with Ricky Williams and likely will see fewer looks in the Wildcat as the Dolphins will stick more with Chad Henne under center. In other words, right now Best, who scored 32 TDs from scrimmage the past two seasons at Cal, is the best combo of scoring potential and large workload. We'll see if the Lions let the diminutive Best pound it in near the end zone, but factor in the upgrades in the Lions offense - signing Nate Burleson and Tony Scheffler, Matthew Stafford gaining more experience - and there should be plenty more opportunities for that decision to be made.

Round 5 (51) - Antonio Gates, TE, San Diego: Happy to get Gates - especially as the fourth TE drafted - but was secretly hoping to get Jermichael Finley. As much as I like the young GB tight end, could not pass on the perennial Pro Bowler, who finished with the second 1,000 yard season (1,157) of his career. (For what's its worth, I rank Gates No. 2 behind Clark and if not those two, would prefer to get Finley or Brent Celek later on.) The only real question for about the 30-year Gates' status this season - beyond wondering when father time will eventually win out - is what to make the Chargers holdout issues. Though Gates' numbers will drop off dramatically if Vincent Jackson and LT Marcus McNeil make good on their threats to sit out until Week 10, hard to see the Chargers potent attack reaching previous season levels. For now, we stay the course.

Round 6 (70) - Ben Tate, RB, Houston: Had a lot to say about why I took the Texans, but this was the biggest casualty of the aforementioned lost data. Basically, the other RB options were rather meh; the next five picked were Reggie Bush (better in PPR, but not enough touches), Brandon Jacobs (Ahmad Bradshaw is the Giants back I want this year), Jerome Harrison/Montario Hardesty (both could do well for Browns, but which one, hmmm) and Laurence Maroney (ha, that's a good one).

Arian Foster is currently listed as the Texans top back in part because Tate missed some of the early offseason work with a hamstring injury. Unless the adjustment to the pros takes longer than expected, I look for the second round pick to be the starter no later than 1/4 pole of the season. In this high-powered offense and running behind and underrated offensive line, the 5-10, 220 pounder with 4.4 speed has a great chance to shine as the 1st/2nd down back (Steve Slaton coming in on 3rd downs) and the short yardage looks so give me that potential over the other guys I already know I can poke holes in.

Round 7 (75) - Joe Flacco, QB, Baltimore; Round 8 (94) - Kevin Kolb, QB, Philadelphia: When it comes to quarterbacks this season, my goal is to grab one of the top-7 (Rodgers, Brees, Manning, Brady, Schaub, Romo, Rivers) because I think there is a decent sized drop from there. In this draft, all of those guys were selected before I even made my fourth round pick. I don't see that happening in the majority of my friend leagues, but if it does, then getting both Flacco and Kolb is exactly the kind of upside fallback option I want (seriously, I need a new word besides "upside". Anyone? Bueller?).

Now, for full disclosure, I have to say that Brett Favre was an option when I selected Flacco and if the training camp avoider turns in another season like he did last year, I will clearly have made a "fans voting for Taylor Hicks over Chris Daughtry" level mistake. But with Flacco entering his third season, the Ravens adding Boldin, drafting two young tight ends, holding on to starting tackle Jared Gaither and let's not forget the Rice/McGahee combo on the ground and this offense could be in line for a breakout season with the young gunslinger at the helm.

I really did not think Kolb would be around by this pick (actually Favre went the pick before) and I was preparing to add a receiver like Santana Moss or T. J. Houshmandzadeh, but loved the idea of the young guns platoon. Kolb may be entering his first year as starter - and no player in the league will likely feel more pressure especially early on - but he has been handed the keys before, at least for a couple of weeks. As I wrote about Kolb earlier this year, he is a much more accurate thrower than McNabb, he showed plenty of zip on his throws and has already established a strong connection with his young receiving targets. Unless the Eagles offensive line lets him down, Kolb will be good to go.

Bottom line, either or both of these guys have a great chance to be a top-10 fantasy QB. Based on their respective schedules through Week 8, there would be about a 50-50 split in fantasy playing time. (And yes, I am aware they both have a Week 8 bye. Can't pass on talent for one week, especially at a position like QB where you can always pick up a starter. Plus, if both start rockin and rollin and what not, their level of trade bait will be even higher than the rounds I got them in. and the bye is Week 8. If you can't swing a trade to deal with the "problem" by then, you aren't much of a fantasy GM in the first place.)

Round 9 (99) - Johnny Knox, WR, Chicago: I made plenty of cracks at the expense of Jay Cutler and the Bears passing game last season and with good reason, but nobody thinks the offense will be a joke this year with Mike Martz calling the plays. So when this pick came up, I was chatting it up online with Evan Silva from Rotoworld, the biggest Knox fan this side Mrs. Knox. His take: "Knox is gonna beast this year as the go-to down field threat in Martz's pass-first offense. If he stays healthy, 1,000 yards is very much within reach." Considering the other top WRs on the board were Kenny Britt (great talent, bad situation) and Braylon Edwards (bad hands, too many other hands to feed), I too his advice and went with the Windy City wonder.

Round 10 (118) - Derrick Mason, WR, Baltimore: It was between Thomas Jones and Mason for this pick, but since I only had three receivers on the team and we start three, felt more depth was needed. Obviously the addition of Anquan Boldin will hurt the number of looks Mason receives, but the 12-year vet will also see more one-on-one coverage than at any point since he joined the Ravens. I am not counting on him to rack up his ninth 1,000 yard season in the last 10 years, but in this PPR format he can still be very effective.

Round 11 (123) - Willis McGahee, RB, Baltimore: This pick serves both as a hedge (handcuff for Rice) and potential bye week option against a weak opponent that the Ravens can run all over. If Rice were to miss time, McGahee would have RB1 potential. Either way, he should remain involved in the offense and continue to get plenty of touches in the red zone.

Round 12 (142) - Larry Johnson, RB, Washington: Was all set to take the Green Bay defense, but they were swiped the pick before me so I went in another direction. Another pick that drew some chortles or calls of being a homer from the FFToolbox writers, but I have been saying for some time that even though I am no fan of LJ, he has the best value among the Redskins backs this year. Clinton Portis, the world's oldest 28-year old, is the likely starter for now, but whereas he has been a work horse back for several years running, Johnson is relatively fresh after year straight sub-200 carry seasons. Call it a hunch, but I think at some point LJ becomes the starter and has a handful of meaningful outings.

Round 13 (147) - Chris Chambers, WR, Kansas City: Just realized I have gone for four older vet types in a row. Hmmm, not ideal, but I still like each selection. Two mock drafts, two times I ended up with Chambers. Here is what I wrote the first time I drafted him...Need to grab a backup WR and I expect better things out of the Chiefs passing game this year (not that they could be much worse). After joining the Chiefs during the season, Chambers surprisingly had a bit of a revival, catching 36 passes for 608 yards and four touchdowns over the final nine games.

Round 14 (166) - San Francisco, Def: A top-4 fantasy defense last season, the Niners have the advantage of playing in a weak division and get two games each against the rookie Sam Bradford, the still unproven Matt Leinart and the aged Matt Hasselbeck plus games against Josh Freeman, Matt Moore and Matt Cassel.

Round 15 (171) - Mario Manningham, WR, NY Giants: Super Mario came out of the gates strong last year before falling behind Steve Smith and Hakeem Nicks in the Giants receiver rotation. Could be a WR3 play if an injury in front of him occurs, but otherwise a deep reserve.

Round 16 (190) - Nate Washington, WR, Tennessee: In retrospect, probably should have taken a flyer elsewhere like Jags WR Mike Thomas or a backup TE like Jeremy Shockey instead of taking a Titans wide out not named Kenny Britt. Washington, who scored six TDs last year, is a solid talent and will surely end up on fantasy rosters in most deep leagues, but the Titans simply do not through the ball enough to make him worth starting on a regular basis.

Round 17 (195) - Neil Rackers, K, Houston: Though his streak of 100-point seasons ended at four last year, Rackers made 16-of-17 field goals last year in 14 games and will have plenty of chances playing for the Texans.

Round 18 (214) - Jason Snelling, RB, Atlanta: Needs a Michael Turner injury to be relevant, but showed last year he can be productive if given the ball.