Best Bets for Week 15 of the NFL season

Who will win, step up and get beat down in Week 15 of the NFL season...

As a reminder, email any questions, be it about lineup decisions or available free agents to ben.standig@fftoolbox.com and I will respond before the start of Saturday's action or your money back.

As always, these fantasy musings do not reflect the opinion of FFToolbox.com, but just a solo fantasy writer with too much time on his hands now that he no longer has to organize a bake sale for John Lackey...and of course, the picks are for informational purposes only...

Last week: 10-6 straight, 7-9 spread

Overall (thru Week 14): 143-69 straight; 110-101-1 spread

This week: 1-0 straight, 1-0 spread

***12/19 Update - The snow on the east coast is no joke, coming down heavy in the DC area right now. While the snow may be over by the time the 1pm games begin, do not just assume it. Check the weather reports for players in those potential tough spots (Baltimore, Pittsburgh, Philadelphia, New York), especially if today is your last chance to pick up a potential replacement).

NEW ORLEANS 34 Dallas 27 (+7.5): Hard to pick a side when one team refuses to lose, but isn't blowing anyone out lately while the other team cannot win when Santa starts loading up the sleigh. The two main trends continue, but big fantasy numbers for all and for all - except Cowboy fans - a good night.

Green Bay 24 (+2.5) PITTSBUGH 21: At some point the Steelers HAVE to win, but the Packers are one hot team. Ryan Grant does not find a lot of holes against the front seven, but Aaron Rodgers has his way with the Steelers suddenly shoddy secondary…Entering this week, Santonio Holmes has hauled in the third most receiving yards. Wow, would not have guessed that after his slooooow start, but posting at least 74 yards in seven of eight games helps. If Hines Ward is effective, Holmes will see enough single coverage to do it yet again.

TENNESSEE 23 (-3) Miami 16: The Chris Johnson slows down a little bit against a Dolphins defense that has some success when they…oh who are we kidding. To paraphrase Dan Patrick, you can't stop CJ; you can only hope to contain him! Only one score, but 135 on the ground and another 45 through the air for the fantasy MVP.

New England 27 (-7) BUFFALO 17: Whether Randy Moss decides to play hard every play this week or not should not make a difference against a Bills defense that is dead last against the run. That means Laurence Maroney runs for over 90 yards for the second straight week and adds a TD to boot.

Arizona 38 (-13) DETROIT 14: Coming off a seven turnover outing in Week 14, could the pass-happy Cardinals get any better opponent as they attempt to bounce back? In a word, no. The Lions have allowed a league-high 29 TDP on the season. Even if Larry Fitzgerald is limited, Kurt Warner and the rest should have a field day.

PHILADELPHIA 28 (-7.5) San Francisco 20: Chris Johnson is the most electrifying player going, but DeSean Jackson is right on his heels. Plus factor in the return game and he can score in three ways. He finds the end zone twice, but not sure which mode is left out…

NY JETS 24 (-6) Atlanta 14: Matt Ryan, Michael Turner and perhaps Mark Sanchez will be game-time decisions. If the rookie QB does not play, the Jets will just lean even more on Thomas Jones against this porous run defense. If Ryan and Turner do not play, the Falcons fans will lean even more after drinking heavily to compensate for losing their seventh in nine games.

BALTIMORE 30 (-12) Chicago 14: Jay Cutler leads all quarterbacks with 22 interceptions. The Ravens are sixth in the league with 16 picks. Add at least two more to both sides after this game…

KANSAS CITY 24 (-2.5) Cleveland 20: Other than Jamaal Charles, who will be a top-10 back this week, not a ton to get excited about here. Browns RB Chris Jennings is a sneaky flex play against a horrid run defense if you can stomach taking the risk.

Houston 37 (-11.5) ST. LOUIS 10: So much is going wrong for the Rams, including enough cases of swine flu to cancel Thursday's practice, that they are hoping that Kyle Boller is healthy enough to start this week. That says it all.

SAN DIEGO 23 (-6.5) Cincinnati 16: Tough week for the Bengals following the tragic loss of Chris Henry. The Redskins rallied around the in-season death of Sean Taylor to make the playoffs that season, but lost their next game after it happened. Look for the same thing here.

DENVER 34 (-14) Oakland 17: Knowshon Moreno does not have a 100-yard rush day in his rookie season. With Correll Buckhalter (ankle) looking unlikely to play, that changes against the Raiders 30th ranked rush defense…

SEATTLE 28 (-6) Tampa Bay 16: The Seahawks defense was recommended in my Deep Leagues Pickup article this week, largely because they have stepped up when facing some of the league's overmatched quarterbacks. Bucs rookie QB Josh Freeman, who has tossed 12 picks in six starts, qualifies as one.

Minnesota 27 (-9.5) CAROLINA 13: While everyone is so focused on whether the Colts will continue playing their starters throughout the remainder of the fantasy season, owners of key Vikings players may want to keep their eye on the scheduling ball next week. Minnesota plays on Monday night. If the Saints win their next two, the Vikes likely have nothing to play for against the Bears. Hmmm. Plan accordingly…The Panthers picked a bad week to be without either of their starting tackles, facing the Vikings sixth-ranked defense.

WASHINGTON 24 (+3) NY Giants 23: The impact on the Redskins home crowd following the firing of front office lackey Vinny Cerrato cannot be understated. Fans walked around the city the day of the news happier than five-year olds at Christmas. That will be reflected in what should be the nosiest home game of the year and the players will respond. Jason Campbell impresses the new boss with 275 yards and two scores, with one going to Fred Davis…Against the Redskins defense, I see Ahmad Bradshaw having more success than Brandon Jacobs, while Hakeem Nicks should bust loose for a couple of big plays down field against a secondary that has been vulnerable to exactly that.

Survivor Picks: These are my personal picks each week for my various (cough, cough) pools

Week 15 - Houston (Another week, another pick against the Rams. All things being equal, I would take Denver, but need them for Week 17 in case Chargers have nothing to play for)

Week 14 - Tennessee (If Kerry Collins starts and I get spooked, will jump to the Pats. Otherwise, Titans roll)

Week 13 - Cincinnati (Their offense has been off, but Benson is back and I mean, they play the Lions)

Week 12 - Dallas (As stated above, it is hard to know what to make of the Cowboys, but on a short week and coming off a big win, hard to see Oakland winning. San Diego is my fallback)

Week 11 - Jacksonville (This is my least confident call in weeks, but I'll take my chances against a team (Buffalo) with a new coach and new QB. For the faint of heart, Minnesota, New Orleans and Pittsburgh are fine if you can still use them)

Week 10 - Minnesota (Obviously taking the Purple People Eaters against the toothless Lions isn't a tough call. Not sure I have the guts to pick the Dolphins. For those who don't mind going on the road, take the Saints)

Week 9 - Atlanta (A very sketchy week. Falcons matchup not ideal, playing a top-5 defense and coming off a bye, but better than taking Seahawks, Jaguars or Packers on the road)

Week 8 - Chicago (Colts are good if available. Chargers are ok, but hard to trust the Bolts and it is a division game)

Week 7 - Indianapolis (the Colts and Pats are the only worthy options this week, even with the road and neutral sites)

Week 6 - Green Bay (Jacksonville against the Rams is the gutsier call, but another week of strong options)

Week 5 - Philadelphia (though there are waaaaaay to many good options this week so everyone "should" advance)

Week 4 - San Francisco (Chicago is a close second)

Week 3 - Baltimore

Week 2 - Washington, Green Bay (and one pool goes by the wayside)

Week 1 - New Orleans, Baltimore