Best Bets for Week Nine of the NFL season
Who will win, step up and get beat down in Week Nine of the NFL season...
These fantasy musings do not reflect the opinion of FFToolbox.com, but just a solo fantasy writer with too much time on his hand who no longer has to waste energy rooting against the New York Yankees, the best baseball team money can buy...
Last week: 8-5 straight, 6-7 spread
Overall: 76-40 straight; 58-57-1 spread
Jacksonville 27 Kansas City 21 (+7): MJD owners have to be thrilled to hear that the Jags are going to do all they can to give the Human Bowling Ball more touches. Considering he has had 12 or less carries in three of his last four starts, it is about time. Whether he busts off two long scoring runs as he did last week, Maurice Jones-Drew will be in the mix for top fantasy RB of the week...Dwayne Bowe's overall numbers have been spotty at best, though he has racked up four scores for the offensively challenged Chiefs. He adds one, nay, two touchdowns and tops the century mark for the second time this year against the Jags 26th ranked pass defense...
Baltimore 21 Cincinnati 20 (+3): The toughest game to pick on the board, as the Ravens look for revenge, but giving points on the road. Joe Flacco has had a stellar sophomore season, but he and top wideout Derrick Mason struggled in their matchup with the Bengals. Expect the Ravens to continue to lean on their other stud fellow second-year player Ray Rice as they get back to a more balanced attack...The Bengals fantasy weapons have a tough stretch with games against the Ravens and Steelers, though continue to start Cedric Benson and Chad Ochocinco per normal. Owners will have any short term decline made up for them with a three-game stretch against the Raiders, Browns and Lions starting in Week 11.
Indianapolis 28 Houston 27 (+8.5): We all know how great the Colts offense is and their defense has been solid this season, but that side took not one, not two, but three losses to the secondary this week. All everything SS Bob Sanders has been (shocker!) placed on IR, where he joined starting CB Marlin Jackson. All of this is great news for Texans QB Matt Schaub, though he enters the game without injured TE Owen Daniels. The Texans are oh so close to becoming as legit AFC contender, but the Peyton Manning factor is too much to overcome in this thriller...
Atlanta 26 (-10) Washington 13: Odd stat of the week - Matt Ryan has completed exactly 19 passes in three straight games. In it of itself, that means nothing, but completing only 51.8% of his throws in that stretch is a bit concerning and now he faces the NFL's #2 ranked pass defense. The Falcons should end their two-game losing streak in style, but Ryan should not be viewed as a lock fantasy starter for now...The Redskins have scant fantasy options across the board, though Jason Campbell has a chance to post decent yardage totals against the Falcons 31st ranked pass defense. Regardless, he will not find the end zone enough for a big fantasy day, though TE Fred Davis is the best bet among the Redskins receivers to score...
Green Bay 31 (-10) Tampa Bay 16: Though Donald Driver (stinger) is now listed as probable this week, expect James Jones to be more involved in the Packers passing attack. Considering the third-year receiver has yet to catch more than two passes in any game this season, that is not saying much, but Jones has two scores and is averaging a staggering 22.9 yards per catch. Look for him to have a big catch or two against the porous Bucs secondary...The debut of rookie QB Josh Freeman makes essentially all Bucs skill players not worth starting, though Cadillac Williams and Derrick Ward should receive plenty of carries as long as the game stays close...
Arizona 24 (+3) Chicago 20: Kurt Warner threw a whopping five picks last week, but he settles back into a groove and throws for two scores against the Bears. On the flip side, the Cardinals eighth-ranked rush defense puts the Bears offense into enough 3rd-and-longs to force Jay Cutler into tough throws down the field.
New England 27 Miami 17 (+10.5): The Dolphins will do all they can to control the clock, but the Brady-Moss-Welker trifecta will not need a lot of time to post big numbers against their sub-standard secondary...Following his breakout performance against the Jets in Week Five, Chad Henne has averaged less than six yards per attempt in two starts. He will need to do much better than that against a Pats defense that figures to be ready to stop the Dolphins Wildcat attack.
New Orleans 30 Carolina 23 (+13): The Superdome has been a home away for home for the Panthers, who have won seven straight in the Big Easy. With their running game leading the way and Steve Smith showing signs of life, the Panthers have won three of four games overall and face a Saints defense that has allowed an average of 29.3 points over their last three games. Still, the difference at quarterback will be too much to overcome for the Panthers unless the Saints continue to turn over the ball at an alarming rate. All the obvious fantasy plays are worth starting in this one.
Seattle 27 (-10) Detroit 16: The less said about this yawner of a game the better, but Calvin Johnson (knee) is looking like a better bet to play this week, though he will be a game-time decision...Matt Hasselbeck threw three touchdowns against the Rams and four versus the Jags earlier this season. He could have a similar day going up against a team that has allowed 18 scores through the air, second most in the NFL.
Tennessee 16 (+4) San Francisco 13: One thing that Vince Young knows how to do is win games. Sadly, he won't be helping fantasy owners do the same with his paltry passing stats, which in turn lowers the value of the Titans receivers, but his presence gets the Music City squad their second straight win...The Michael Crabtree experience continues to perform to rave reviews and the Niners rookie posts his first NFL score, along with 75 yards on five catches.
NY Giants 27 (-4.5) San Diego 22: If Brandon Jacobs has any real game in him, it will come out this week against a Chargers defense that is vulnerable up the middle to a bruising back. Considering the struggles Eli Manning has had dealing with his foot injury, look for the Giants to run Jacobs and Ahmad Bradshaw early and often...When the Chargers are on offense, they will attack, attack, attack the Giants secondary over the middle, meaning Antonio Gates is in line for a big day.
Philadelphia 30 (-3) Dallas 17: The Cowboys three-game winning streak has been highlighted by the Tony Romo-Miles Austin connection that should find the end zone for the fourth straight game, but will not compare to the numbers DeSean Jackson and Jeremy Maclin post for the other side.
Pittsburgh 24 (-3) Denver 20: The Broncos soon-to-be two game losing streak says more about their opponents then their own squad, which remains one of the best in the AFC. After losing to the Ravens in Week Eight, the Broncs face a Steelers squad that is ready to start the playoff push a little earlier than normal in the highly competitive AFC North. Big Ben Roethlisberger, coming off a season-low 175 yards in his last outing, smacks the Broncos for 250+ yards and two scores in the win.
Survivor Picks: These are my personal picks each week for my various (cough, cough) pools
Week 9 - Atlanta (A very sketchy week. Falcons matchup not ideal, playing a top-5 defense and coming off a bye, but better than taking Seahawks, Jaguars or Packers on the road)
Week 8 - Chicago (Colts are good if available. Chargers are ok, but hard to trust the Bolts and it is a division game)
Week 7 - Indianapolis (the Colts and Pats are the only worthy options this week, even with the road and neutral sites)
Week 6 - Green Bay (Jacksonville against the Rams is the gutsier call, but another week of strong options)
Week 5 - Philadelphia (though there are waaaaaay to many good options this week so everyone "should" advance)
Week 4 - San Francisco (Chicago is a close second)
Week 3 - Baltimore
Week 2 - Washington, Green Bay (and one pool goes by the wayside)
Week 1 - New Orleans, Baltimore
