Best Bets for Week Seven of the NFL season
Who will win, step up and get beat down in Week Seven of the NFL season...
We'll skip the normal intro and get right into the picks, which of course are for informational purposes only. In addition, these fantasy musings do not reflect the opinion of FFToolbox.com but just a solo fantasy writer with too much time on his hands...
Last week: 7-7 straight, 6-8 spread
Overall: 60-30 straight; 46-44 spread
Kansas City 23 (+4.5) San Diego 20: The majority of football observers have been quick to lump the Chiefs in with the ever growing list of NFL bottom feeders, but that may be a case of judging a book by its cover. Nobody is going to confuse the Chiefs with a playoff team and the defense still has a ways to go, but the Todd Haley coached offense has shown signs of life over the last month. Matt Cassel, who missed nearly the entire preseason while trying to learn Haley's offense, threw two touchdowns in four straight games before being shutout in last week's over the Redskins and even Larry Johnson has shown signs of life. After taking the Cowboys to overtime and knocking off the Redskins, the Chiefs keep momentum going behind the legs of LJ against their division rival. With that said, Johnson remains a long-term "sell" candidate...
Indianapolis 34 (-13) St. Louis 14: In addition to the obvious Peyton Manning-Reggie Wayne-Joseph Addai must starts, the likes of Donald Brown, Austin Collie, Pierre Garcon and the Colts defense are all worthy bye week starts against the lowly Rams. Factor in kicker Matt Stover, who is filling in for the injured Adam Vinatieri, and the Colts have what might be an unprecedented eight worthy starts in one game this season. Ride the hot hand of Collie over Garcon if you have that choice...on the flip side, Steven Jackson and Donnie Avery (hip) are the only worthy plays for the lowly Rams, who may be "looking ahead" to their epic Week Eight battle with the Lions, their one legit shot to win a game this year. Avery has been limited in practice, but is expected to play.
Cincinnati 20 (-1) Chicago 17: The Cedric Benson bowl matches the NFL's third-leading rusher against the Bengals sixth-ranked rush defense. Unless you have two other significant RB's, stick with Benson in this revenge battle, but the Bears will likely have more success with Jay Cutler throwing against a defensive unit that is allowing 254.8 yards per game, 28th in the league...Chad Ochocinco (hip) sat out the Bengals Friday morning practice. The injury is not expected to keep him out of the lineup, but be sure to check his status Sunday morning as late week practice absences are worrisome. Assuming he is active, continue to start one of the league's most consistent receiving weapons.
Green Bay 33 (-9) Cleveland 13: Going up against one of the NFL's worst teams for the second straight week provides Aaron Rodgers the more than realistic opportunity to throw two touchdown passes in his fourth straight game. As long as he can survive the beatings his offensive line subjects him too, Rodgers will remain a top tier QB the rest of the way...Seriously, how much must Eric Mangini loathe Brady Quinn to not get the Browns one-time golden boy in the lineup after Derek Anderson has delivered the following totals over the last two games; 11-for-41, 145 yards, one TD, two picks.
Pittsburgh 27 (-5) Minnesota 20: The pass happy Steelers will need to throw to beat the Vikings and without CB Antoine Winfield on the field, they should have little problem. The Big Ben-to-Hines Ward connection should produce another score, while Rashard Mendenhall owners will want to look elsewhere...The Sidney Rice breakout season is a legit development and more to the point, puts him ahead of Bernard Berrian the rest of the fantasy season. Though Brett Favre spreads the wealth, he typically falls in love with certain targets and Rice and Visanthe Shiancoe are clearly the apple of eye over Berrian.
New England 41 (-14.5) Tampa Bay 17: The London Bowl is a one-sided affair that will be interesting only to see how many points the Tom Brady led offense can generate. Unlike like last week, Brady plays into the 4th quarter, but the overwhelming result remains the same. Laurence Maroney should run well against a Bucs defense that allowed 267 yards on the ground last week and he gets the added boost of Sammy Morris being left behind for this overseas matchup.
Houston 24 (-3) San Francisco 20: Shaun Hill deserves kudos for all that he has done since being inserted into the Niners starting lineup, but he lacks the firepower to keep up with the Matt Schaub-led Texans offense. He gets a boost from the expected return of Frank Gore, who should post strong numbers against a suspect Texans rush defense, but the visits to the red zone do not produce enough touchdowns to win.
NY Jets 17 Oakland 14 (+6): The Mark Sanchez to the Hall of Fame campaign took a big hit with his brutal five-pick outing last week and with Jerricho Cotchery (hamstring) expected to miss his second straight game, the rookie does need to get fitted for his beige jacket quite yet...
Carolina 23 Buffalo 14 (+7): Here is what I wrote last week about Steve Smith; "As long as Steve Smith (knee) is on the field - and he is expected to play - he will torch the Bucs secondary as he did twice last year. If not, it is officially panic time for his fantasy owners (myself included)." For most of this week, I did all I could to move Smith in the league I own him or look for a viable alternative, but as the days passed, hope returned. From Smith's own comments about feeling marginalized in the Panthers offense to the Bills ruling out both of their starting safeties, I have decided to get on board with the star receiver one more time. Factor in the Ryan Fitzpatrick starting for the Bills factor and the Panthers get their third straight win.
Miami 27 (+6) New Orleans 24: The upset special. With this game sandwiched in between the blowout win over the Giants and a battle with the division rival Falcons, the Saints do not have the juice to stop the Wildcat offense, though Drew Brees will throw for tons of yards. Ronnie Brown continues his Pro Bowl level season with 120+ total yards and at least one score.
Atlanta 24 (+4) Dallas 23: Roddy White and Michael Jenkins should have their way against the Cowboys secondary, while Miles Austin shows his epic Week Six performance was not a total fluke with 100 yards and a score. Sadly for Cowboy fans, he doesn't play defense which is the side of the ball Dallas comes up short in.
NY Giants 30 (-7) Arizona 21: Steve Smith, Hakeem Nicks and Mario Manningham are all strong to solid plays against a Cardinals defense that is 31st in pass defense, allowing 265 yards per game. Smith has cooled down some after his hot start, but the rookie Nicks has picked up his production with scores in three straight weeks...Despite his role as the cards third receiver, Steve Breaston has at least 66 receiving yards in four straight weeks and he looks to be in a good position to do that again with Anquan Boldin (ankle) a game-time decision.
Philadelphia 23 (-7) Washington 14: As if the situation is not bad enough in Washington, the Redskins get a pissed off Eagles squad coming off an embarrassing loss to the lowly Raiders. With that said, Donovan McNabb did not throw a touchdown pass in two games versus Washington last season and the Redskins defense currently ranks third in the NFL...Start Clinton Portis if he is your best RB option, but the rest of the Redskins skill players are bench options playing behind an inadequate offensive line.
Survivor Picks: These are my personal picks each week for my various (cough, cough) pools
Week 1 - New Orleans, Baltimore
Week 2 - Washington, Green Bay (and one pool goes by the wayside)
Week 3 - Baltimore
Week 4 - San Francisco (Chicago is a close second)
Week 5 - Philadelphia (though there are waaaaaay to many good options this week so everyone "should" advance)
Week 6 - Green Bay (Jacksonville against the Rams is the gutsier call, but another week of strong options)
Week 7 - Indianapolis (the Colts and Pats are the only worthy options this week, even with the road and neutral sites)