Who will win, step up and get beat down in Week One of the NFL season...

Before heading into the picks, someone in the NFL office needs to get a tongue lashing with that initial matchup of the season Thursday night. Pittsburgh-Tennessee is a classic Week 10 matchup as the weather turns for the worse and the hitting gets more intense, but in the NFL season opener, we want some points! I am down with the Super Bowl champs getting the home game, but there needs to be a rule that at least one of the top offenses must be in the game. Loved the intensity in the game, but the NFL season needs to start off with some bombs, not just defensive beasts...ok, on to the picks which of course are always for informational purposes only...

Atlanta 24 Miami 21 (+4) - Hard to see either team reaching their '08 records, but give the home team the field goal nod in this one... Look for Roddy White and Michael Jenkins to make big plays against the Dolphins rebuilt, but still struggling secondary

Baltimore 27 (-13) Kansas City 6 - Entering the opener against a ferocious Ravens defense with an injured Matt Cassel and just days after firing their offensive coordinator is not good recipe for success... Avoid using any Chiefs skill player not named Dwayne Bowe if humanly possible

Philadelphia 23 (-2.5) Carolina 17 - Both teams suffered significant losses on the defensive side since last season, but the Eagles are more equipped to handle them... Brian Westbrook will make those owners that drafted him in the first round breathe a sigh of relief after a big opening game.

Cincinnati 27 Denver 24 (+5) - There is a blooming sense of optimism waiting in the wings if Carson Palmer gets off to a strong start. He will against the Broncos, but the doom and gloom scenario for the Mile Highers is overblown despite the loss... Chad Ochocinco starts the comeback campaign with 100+ yards and a score...Peyton Hillis is the most productive Broncos back in this one

Minnesota 24 (-3.5) Cleveland 14 - The only real intrigue surrounding the outcome of this game will be what future excuse Brett Favre begins to the lay the tracks down for in the post game presser. I'm going with the noise around the Rock and Roll Hall of Fame gave him a headache, thus upsetting his equilibrium, thus why he will eventually toss another nine picks in the closing weeks of this season...Avoid using Jamal Lewis and really any Browns skill player not named Braylon Edwards.

Houston 20 NY Jets 17 (+4.5): It is the battle of everyone's favorite sleeper pick (Texans) against the ladies favorite rookie QB (Mark Sanchez). Sorry ladies, expect the QB on the other side to make enough big plays for the win...The other battle to watch involves two of my favorite mid-tier tight ends, Owen Daniels and Dustin Keller. Giving the Jets second-year player a slight edge with a score.

Indianapolis 27 Jacksonville 21 (+7): Based on nothing more than my own memory, but the Jags historically keep things close with the Manning's and I want to see the Colts show me they have all the kinks worked out following the changes on the coaching staff...

New Orleans 30 Detroit 24 (+13): Everyone's favorite Survivor pool pick will simply have too much offense for Matthew Stafford and the Lions offense, but there will be enough intensity flowing from the Motor City boys coming off the 0-16 debacle to keep things close most of the way...Everyone on the Saints is clearly worth a fantasy start, including Mike Bell if Pierre Thomas is out...Matthew Stafford predicition: 14-26, 218 yards, one TD, two picks. He flashes the arm, but the inexperience as well, which hurts Lions in the fourth. His lack of protection hurts him all season.

Dallas 22 Tampa Bay 17 (+5.5): The Bucs keep it tight in the home opener, but I am not sure why more folks do not see the doom and gloom that awaits them. Warren Sapp and Derrick Brooks are not walking through those doors except for reunions...Marion Barber and Felix Jones each score and combine for 180+ yards from scrimmage.

San Francisco 28 (+6) Arizona 27: The Cards were just an ordinary team overall before their playoff run and now they face the dreaded Super Bowl losers playoff curse, not to mention half the team wanting new contracts. This week, the curse manifests itself in a strong ball-controlled second half from Frank Gore and the Niners offense after Kurt Warner passes for two scores in the first half.

NY Giants 20 (-6.5) Washington 10: The Meadowlands have not been kind to the burgundy and gold and that trend remains despite the defense sacking Eli Manning four times...Steve Smith establishes himself as the Giants go-to target with eight receptions, half for first downs.

Seattle 27 St. Louis 21 (+7.5): Week one starts the Seahawks return to the top of the mediocre NFC West, as long as they can keep Matt Hasselbeck upright. They do in this one and he throws for three scores. The Seahawks need them all as their weak secondary makes the Rams passing attack look downright formidable, which they are far from.

Green Bay 30 (-3.5) Chicago 26: Normally I would take the points in an early season rivalry game like this one, but I think this is the beginning of the Packers "Win one to show Brett Favre up" drive towards the NFC Championship...Jay Cutler's interception total takes a 2-1 lead over his outbursts, despite him getting heated over an undercooked brat before the game.

New England 38 (-10.5) Buffalo 17: Nobody knows which Patriots running back will be the best fantasy option this season, but Fred Taylor takes the early lead with a 14-75-1 outing. Of course, nobody notices after Tom Brady throws for four scores.

San Diego 23 Oakland 17 (+9): Chargers head coach Norv Turner always seems like he is a bad loss away from losing his job. That should not be a problem for him this season in the sad AFC West, but he will come dangerously close in this one despite the nuttiness that is the Raiders due to a strong ground game effort from Darren McFadden and Michael Bush

Season: 1-0 with winners; 0-1 with spread

Survivor Picks: Baltimore, New Orleans, New England; The Ravens are my top choice, but they also have sweet matchups coming up within the next four weeks.

Why the Lions are making yet another gaffe by rushing their prized rookie into the fray, plus NFL news and notes...

The NFL Folk must love the kid's game follow the leader. Whether it's the "Wildcat" offense, running back by committee or firing offensive coordinators, the plan among coaches and execs often appears to be as simple as the trend is your friend. After a 0-16 season, the Detroit Lions are hoping to change the direction of their franchise and get some instant karma by going with the latest tendency, starting your rookie quarterback week one. Sadly for them, years of beating to their own dream of left the Lions ill-prepared for such a move.

Over the holiday weekend, the Lions announced that the #1 overall pick in the 2009 Draft, Matthew Stafford, will start the opening game on the road against the Saints. Sigh. Yes Detroit fans, I know that last season the Atlanta Falcons and Baltimore Ravens rode the wave of their first year passers, Matt Ryan and Joe Flacco respectively, after being bottom feeders the previous year. I also know that you other QB option, Daunte Culpepper, isn't much of an option at all. Still, if you really want to get your franchise going in the right direction - I mean other than finally, FINALLY firing Matt Millen - plant a clipboard in young Stafford's hands and let him learn by watching, not doing.

Last season Ryan and Flacco became only the fourth and fifth rookie quarterbacks to start all 16 games and the first from that group to post winning records in their initial campaign. Now, that is a trend every cellar dweller would like to follow, especially one that pulled and 0-fer like the Lions, but the pieces are not in place.

Because of a stout and playmaking defense, along with a strong ground attack, the Ravens were able to take pressure off Flacco and allow him to be more of a handoff giver than pass thrower. The 2008 Lions allowed an NFL-high 517 points. The Falcons asked a little more of Ryan, but much of their recent downturn came from the fallout from the Michael Vick controversy, not a total dearth of talent.

The same cannot be said in the Motor City, where the drafted receivers year in and year out instead of the forming a foundation of big uglies up front. I expect the new Lions regime will bring an attitude adjustment, but it will take some time to improve the woeful lines on both sides of the ball, so why let Stafford play the role of sitting duck until that time.

Oh and did we mention that after they try and keep pace with the Saints high-powered attack in the opener, the Lions face the Vikings, Redskins, Bears and Steelers defenses in consecutive weeks, all considered to be among the elite units this season. By sticking Stafford into the lineup off the bat against those bloodhounds, the essentially expansion Lions are risking the same fate for their young QB as the Houston Texans did for their prodigy David Carr, who got battered so often behind a spotty offensive line that even Ike Turner thought it was cruel.

Plus, while it is not hard to beat out Culpepper for a starting gig at this point in the former star's fading career, Stafford did not exactly light up the world in the preseason. This from the Detroit Free Press:

"The stats alone don't show why Stafford beat out veteran Daunte Culpepper. Each led the Lions to a touchdown and field goal. Stafford played four exhibitions, Culpepper three. Stafford threw four interceptions, Culpepper none. Stafford completed 54.5% of his passes, Culpepper 64.7%. Stafford's passer rating was 52.8, Culpepper's 89.6."

The article points out that Stafford's arm strength and aggressiveness will allow the Lions opportunities for more big plays than the light-tossing Culpepper will at this point. Hey, I am not now or ever endorsing the post-Randy Moss version of Culpepper to be anyone's starting QB, but that's another personnel gaffe on the part of the Lions for allowing that to be the fallback choice.

Fantasy owners can ponder the talented Stafford in keeper/dynasty leagues in part because there are some positives on the roster with Calvin Johnson on the outside, Kevin Smith in the backfield and LB Ernie Sims leading the defensive crew, but this team is far from competing with the big boys. If they stick with the plan of allowing Stafford to get out there before the rest of the team is up to code, it will be the young QB who is falling back, both in terms of the trajectory of the league's other young passers and on his ass.

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Some quick thoughts on Brett Favre and other items of interest from a largely entertaining Monday Night game, plus the oddly timed firing of Chiefs OC Chan Gailey and how it affects that offense...

- I am as tired of the entire Brett Favre saga as much as the next person (assuming the next person isn't Rachel Nichols or one the other ESPN reporters who were forced to camp out on Favre's Hattiesburg, MS front lawn all summer), but I have to admit I was rather impressed with what #4 showed against the Texans.

From a pure football standpoint, my questions with this latest Favre comeback included the status of his injured arm (elbow, rotator cuff) and the likely lack of rapport, timing that he would have with his offensive teammates considering he was showing up about an hour before the season started.

On the first point, Favre's arm looked lively and he did not appear to be pulling any punches on his passes against an improving Texans defense. Though he was more game manager than gunslinger, the Vikes new QB was more than effective, completing 13-of-18 passes for 142 yards and a touchdown. There was also no sign of discomfort from a cracked rib that Favre himself speculated about before the game. (Seriously, if we are going to waste all this time on Favre, shouldn't there be some sort of inquiry into the validity of all these suppossed injuries that he suffers yet heroically plays through? I am not calling BS on all them, but the level of exaggeration grows each year. At this point, it is hard to know what is real and what is myth when it comes to John Madden's favorite human being.

As for getting the offense to click, certainly having Adrian Peterson bust out a 75-yard scoring run on the first play from scrimmage helps. The Vikes offense "only" managed to score on two other drives, one starting out from deep inside Texans territory, but Favre orchestrated a nine-play, 74-yard drive that ended with a 28-yard catch and run score by Chester Taylor. They also had only one 3-and-out series with Mr. Wrangler Jeans directing traffic. With AP, Taylor, Bernard Berrian, rookie Percy Harvin, Sidney Rice and Visanthe Shiancoe, Favre has plenty of weapons at his disposal and his familiarity with the playbook appears to be making the introduction to the players on the field an easy one, schism and all.

Fantasy owners need not fly Favre up their draft boards as the run-heavy attack will limit his numbers most weeks, but he could still post three touchdowns in a given game, making him a potential rotation fantasy option for some and a mid-to-high QB@2 for most.

- speaking of the ultra-quick Harvin, the in-game results were mixed (had three receptions for 31 yards, but missed a catchable pass in end zone and was flagged for two penalties), but the potential he flashed was bold and bright. The Vikes lined him all over the field, including as a wildcat QB with Favre sent out wide, and he showed the ability to break tackles in the open field. He will not be a week in, week out type option, but Harvin is the kind of lightning in the bottle type player that defenses fear (seriously, how will defenses be able to focus on him AND Peterson at the same time) and fantasy owners crave. His ADP has jumped two rounds since July, but his game breaking potential makes him a fair value and upside play as a WR3/flex type even in the 8th round.

- Watching AP sprint down the right sideline for that long score erased any lingering concerns I had about taking him with the #1 overall pick in an upcoming non-PPR draft (was debating trading the pick, not taking another player), but seeing that Chester Taylor score reminded me that I will also need to stock up on Maalox before the season starts.

- In terms of where he is going in drafts, Matt Schaub is my favorite fantasy quarterback this year outside of the top-4, but the brittle one showed once again why he is also one of the scariest passer options this season when he suffered an apparent ankle injury late in the first half. The Texans quarterback gutted out the drive, one that was capped off by a Steve Slaton score, but did not return, though the team said he could have if it was a regular season game. Since the injury factor is the biggest knock against Schaub, seeing him limp around did not change his ranking (7th on my draft board) in my eyes, but it emphasized the point that Schaub owners need to take a quality QB2 perhaps a round or two earlier than they normally would.

- Kevin Walter, another one of the Texans I love this year, went out in the first quarter with a hamstring injury and did not return. Walter's q-rating among fantasy owners has been rather low already and this will not help his cause, making the Texans #2 receiver a very attractive value pick around the 8th round, assuming the injury is not serious. Andre Davis would likely step in if Walter missed time and would be worth a roster spot in most leagues if pressed into service.

- In other news, the firing of Chiefs offensive coordinator Chan Gailey means Todd Haley will pull triple duty as rookie head coach, quarterbacks coach and veteran play caller, having served in that third role as the OC for the Cardinals during their Super Bowl run last season. Based on Haley's volume passing approach with the Cards, it was already assumed the Chiefs would throw early and often and those expectations may now be understated with their no longer being a middle man in Gailey calling the plays. This should be good news for Matt Cassel, once he returns from injury, along with Dwayne Bowe and the Chiefs other receivers. The same cannot be said for the overvalued Larry Johnson, who caught only 12 passes last year and was already in danger of losing playing time to backup and third down RB Jamaal Charles.