Stafford should start...on the bench
Why the Lions are making yet another gaffe by rushing their prized rookie into the fray, plus NFL news and notes...
The NFL Folk must love the kid's game follow the leader. Whether it's the "Wildcat" offense, running back by committee or firing offensive coordinators, the plan among coaches and execs often appears to be as simple as the trend is your friend. After a 0-16 season, the Detroit Lions are hoping to change the direction of their franchise and get some instant karma by going with the latest tendency, starting your rookie quarterback week one. Sadly for them, years of beating to their own dream of left the Lions ill-prepared for such a move.
Over the holiday weekend, the Lions announced that the #1 overall pick in the 2009 Draft, Matthew Stafford, will start the opening game on the road against the Saints. Sigh. Yes Detroit fans, I know that last season the Atlanta Falcons and Baltimore Ravens rode the wave of their first year passers, Matt Ryan and Joe Flacco respectively, after being bottom feeders the previous year. I also know that you other QB option, Daunte Culpepper, isn't much of an option at all. Still, if you really want to get your franchise going in the right direction - I mean other than finally, FINALLY firing Matt Millen - plant a clipboard in young Stafford's hands and let him learn by watching, not doing.
Last season Ryan and Flacco became only the fourth and fifth rookie quarterbacks to start all 16 games and the first from that group to post winning records in their initial campaign. Now, that is a trend every cellar dweller would like to follow, especially one that pulled and 0-fer like the Lions, but the pieces are not in place.
Because of a stout and playmaking defense, along with a strong ground attack, the Ravens were able to take pressure off Flacco and allow him to be more of a handoff giver than pass thrower. The 2008 Lions allowed an NFL-high 517 points. The Falcons asked a little more of Ryan, but much of their recent downturn came from the fallout from the Michael Vick controversy, not a total dearth of talent.
The same cannot be said in the Motor City, where the drafted receivers year in and year out instead of the forming a foundation of big uglies up front. I expect the new Lions regime will bring an attitude adjustment, but it will take some time to improve the woeful lines on both sides of the ball, so why let Stafford play the role of sitting duck until that time.
Oh and did we mention that after they try and keep pace with the Saints high-powered attack in the opener, the Lions face the Vikings, Redskins, Bears and Steelers defenses in consecutive weeks, all considered to be among the elite units this season. By sticking Stafford into the lineup off the bat against those bloodhounds, the essentially expansion Lions are risking the same fate for their young QB as the Houston Texans did for their prodigy David Carr, who got battered so often behind a spotty offensive line that even Ike Turner thought it was cruel.
Plus, while it is not hard to beat out Culpepper for a starting gig at this point in the former star's fading career, Stafford did not exactly light up the world in the preseason. This from the Detroit Free Press:
"The stats alone don't show why Stafford beat out veteran Daunte Culpepper. Each led the Lions to a touchdown and field goal. Stafford played four exhibitions, Culpepper three. Stafford threw four interceptions, Culpepper none. Stafford completed 54.5% of his passes, Culpepper 64.7%. Stafford's passer rating was 52.8, Culpepper's 89.6."
The article points out that Stafford's arm strength and aggressiveness will allow the Lions opportunities for more big plays than the light-tossing Culpepper will at this point. Hey, I am not now or ever endorsing the post-Randy Moss version of Culpepper to be anyone's starting QB, but that's another personnel gaffe on the part of the Lions for allowing that to be the fallback choice.
Fantasy owners can ponder the talented Stafford in keeper/dynasty leagues in part because there are some positives on the roster with Calvin Johnson on the outside, Kevin Smith in the backfield and LB Ernie Sims leading the defensive crew, but this team is far from competing with the big boys. If they stick with the plan of allowing Stafford to get out there before the rest of the team is up to code, it will be the young QB who is falling back, both in terms of the trajectory of the league's other young passers and on his ass.
It was the final cut down weekend among NFL teams and among the notable news and moves that fantasy owners need to know about...
- The Steelers said that they will not be part of RBBC generation for now, meaning Willie Parker will be their primary runner. For those smart leagues that waited for the last possible second for your draft or auction, bump Fast Willie up your draft boards
- Brandon Marshall is a step closer to returning to the field now that Broncos have submitted paperwork to lift his suspension, though there is no word yet on if he will be in opening week game plan. Previously Marshall stated he was not up to snuff with the playbook, so who knows what to expect even if he does get back into the lineup quickly. He is uber-talented and I will draft Marshall at the right price, but I am hoping another owner in my 12-team jumps on him prior to the middle of the 5th round.
- Jeff Garcia was waived by the Raiders, meaning all of the Jamarcus Russell believers can exhale about their guy possibly being benched with the wily vet no longer behind him. To this day I did not understand the Garcia-Oakland marriage, both in terms of style (Garcia is a west coast thrower, not a mad bomber type Al Davis prefers) and reality (why have a veteran backup on a team going nowhere). If Garcia has anything left in the tank, I would think a team like Carolina would come calling
- Not official, but Malcolm Kelly is all but a lock to start opposite fellow receiver Santana Moss. The second-year player is exactly what the Redskins pedestrian passing attack needs and makes for a nice potential pay day for owners that take him in the later rounds.
- Jacksonville is opening the season with three running backs, meaning FB Greg Jones and rookie Rashad Jennings will be the primary backups to Maurice Jones-Drew. If MJD goes down, expect a split backfield, but as I discussed in my deep sleepers column, I would side with the short-yardage guy in Jones.
- From the I worry about too many things category...Rex Grossman beat out Dan Orlovsky for the Texans backup QB spot behind the oft-injured Matt Schaub. Why does this matter? Because like his predecessor Sage Rosenfels, Grossman can put up some points when he is not turning the ball over, so in the short term there should not be a huge drop-off in production for Andre Johnson and the rest of the Texans receivers should Schaub go down. Minor for sure, but enough to make me feel stronger about taking Johnson first among receivers.
- For those that for some inexplicable reason like to draft two kickers; Mike Nugent beat out Matt Bryant to be the Bucs kicker while Shaun Suisham retained his job with the Redskins. Neither is little more than a bye week filler.
*** Reminder, the FFToolbox.com weekly podcast can be heard Tuesday at 7pm EST or downloaded via ITunes. This week, it's all about getting you ready for the opening week with our take on who to start and sit along with which NFL teams will be postseason bound.