FFToolbox "Experts" Mock Draft; An inside look at how I put my squad together
Another week, another mock draft, but for the first time all the participants were part of the FFToolbox world. Instead of taking days and weeks to finish up (standard practice in the industry, especially when folks have day jobs, live on either coast or can't break away from watching "The Hills"), our group pounded out the entire draft, all18 rounds on Tuesday night.
Not sure why, but up to this point I have not felt my fantasy mojo click in just yet. Perhaps with distractions like the World Cup, the NBA Playoffs and Free Agency, the local additions of Stephen Strasburg and John Wall, plus the reality setting in that "Lost" is never coming back, i simply have not been focused. With only one mock in the book, I was ready to get the neurons rockin and lock horns with my fellow FFToolbox writers and for the most part, I was OK with the results and could be "Ron Artest winning an NBA Title" excited if some of the calculated risks pay off (The league is not playing out, but don't think I won't be monitoring my choices). I will provide my own take on how I cam to make each decision, parceling out the picks here throughout the day, but let me know where you think I made my mark or went off the rails like Vinny Cerrato. Here is a direct link to my squad.
First off , here is the setup:
Rules: Passing TD: 4pts, Passing INT: -1pt, 20 Passing Yds: 1pt, Rushing/Receiving TD: 6pts, 10 Rushing/Receiving Yds: 1pt, 1 Reception: 1pt
Roster: Start 1QB, 2RB, 3WR, 1TE, 1FLEX, 1K, and 1DEF; Bench: 8
League: PPR; 12 teams; serpentine draft
Round 1 (3) - Ray Rice, RB, Baltimore: Just like there is a decision in all league formats with the number one pick between Chris Johnson and Adrian Peterson, the same is true for the third pick between Rice and Maurice Jones-Drew. I have always been a huge fan of the human bowling ball and expect him to have another strong season, but there is definitely more potential downside with the Jags offense then there is with the improving Ravens. Rice, who finished with 2,000+ yards from scrimmage, led the Ravens and all NFL backs with 78 receptions. Even with the addition of Anquan Boldin, Rice still has a great chance to led the team in catches and he could improve on his eight touchdowns unless Willis McGahee finds the end zone 12 times on relatively few touches. If he gets more looks around the goal line - and can stay healthy of course - it will not shock me in the least that the former Rutgers star cracks the top-2 fantasy runners this year.
Round 2 (22) - Reggie Wayne, WR, Indianapolis: My hope with this pick was to land an upside runner (Jamaal Charles went 19), or one of the two top QB's (Rodgers went in the 1st, Brees 20th) or a receiver I like this year. At this point of the draft, that probably means Austin (17) or Marshall (21), but they were gone. I've never been a big Roddy White fan and was hoping Greg Jennings would slide to me in the third. That left Wayne. OK, bad news first...the nine-year vet's production tailed off over the second half of last season and his 12.6 ypc average represented his lowest average over the past six seasons. Also, with the emergence of Pierre Garcon and Austin Collie, the expected return of Anthony Gonzalez and the presence of Dallas Clark, the Colts passing game is as diverse as it has been in some time. Perhaps more importantly, Wayne is currently talking about holding out and if that threat continues into camp, it will become a lot harder to draft him over those options I mentioned.
(Ben, that does not exactly sound like a ringing endorsement for the guy you just took at No. 22).
Yes, not trying to be a Debbie Downer, but those are the facts, but so are these. The good news is that he is coming off his sixth straight 1,000 yard season, his third with at least 10 touchdowns and the second time he reached the century mark in receptions. Oh, and he has the Manning guy throwing him the ball. The Colts will once again be a high-powered attack and I would not bet on Wayne not getting his numbers. For now, I'm going with the you can't go wrong taking the Colts top receiver, but not vibing on Wayne as much as I have in year's past.
Round 3 (27) - Marques Colston, WR, New Orleans: Most years I would certainly be looking to take a RB now, but this season, especially in this draft slot, I am inclined to take two of the top 12 receivers as I think there is a decent drop into the next category. White and Jennings went in between my last pick, as did Manning, Brady. That effectively took QB off the table here (because of Manning's selection) and I preferred the receiver options over the the backs. (I am not in love with Beanie Wells or Ryan Grant in PPR leagues and I just do not trust that the Saints will allow Pierre Thomas to get 18+ touches a game). Sidney Rice is my pick IF his hip injury proves to be no big deal, but for now there is enough of a red flag to have me go with the safer pick in Colston. These are IMO the final two of that large top group, plus this gives me a piece of the Saints passing game. So far, so good.
Round 4 (46) - Jahvid Best, RB, Detroit: First let me say that I had already written my analysis on the next three picks, but a computer glitch wiped them away forever. Bitter. At least that feeling is only towards my loss of work and not this pick, even if taking an oft-injured scatback playing for the Lions is a touch risky. But as the saying goes, no risk, no reward and of the remaining options (especially once Philip Rivers and Dallas Clark were picked), I like the home run potential offered by the former Cal Bear the best. The uber-quick Best has devastating perimeter skills as a runner and receiver. Same goes for Felix Jones, who was also available and also has his own history of injuries. While Best - who enters the NFL in good health - has the Lions backfield to himself, Jones will at the very least lose goal line touches - and likely more - to Marion Barber. (Kevin Smith is said to be making good progress from knee surgery, but he will likely be a only a handcuff for Best this season). A 100% healthy Ronnie Brown would be the call, but he is coming back from an injury, still shares the workload with Ricky Williams and likely will see fewer looks in the Wildcat as the Dolphins will stick more with Chad Henne under center. In other words, right now Best, who scored 32 TDs from scrimmage the past two seasons at Cal, is the best combo of scoring potential and large workload. We'll see if the Lions let the diminutive Best pound it in near the end zone, but factor in the upgrades in the Lions offense - signing Nate Burleson and Tony Scheffler, Matthew Stafford gaining more experience - and there should be plenty more opportunities for that decision to be made.







