NFL Picks and Fantasy Angles - Week 13

Who will win, step up and get beat down in Week 11 of the NFL season...

These game predictions do not reflect the opinion of FFToolbox.com but just a solo fantasy writer who has his popcorn ready for the big game tonight and I don't mean Eagles-Texans. Go Cavs! ...As a reminder, email any questions, be it about lineup fantasy decisions, trades, strategy or free agents, to podcast@fftoolbox.com or send tweets to @benstandig and I will respond before the start of Sunday's action. Also do not forget to check out the weekly FFToolbox.com podcast - hosted by yours truly - every week or anytime via ITunes. This week we did two shows, cost you nothing extra...

Home Team in CAPS

Last week: Straight (9-7), Spread (4-12*); Overall: Straight (92-67); Spread (83-73-3)

- Ouch, this was the equivalent of Chris Johnson getting a goose egg, but like the Titans stud, I am roaring back this week with a vengeance! As for this week's fantasy angle theme, its all about playing smart and not taking the big risk in what for many leagues is the final week of the regular season, When it comes to the playoffs, you have to win it to be in it so instead of trying to be the player picking hero, just make sure you avoid the zero!

PHILADELPHIA 34 (-8) Houston 24: Wanted to get on the record with the early game and this one has all the makings for a shootout and thus many a fantasy owner will loving life or looking to jump after this one. Eight is a lot of points, especially with Asante Samuel being ruled inactive, but the Texans defense cannot stop mere mortals, let alone a fantasy superhero like Michael Vick...Fantasy Angle - As discussed on the both of the podcast's this week, Brent Celek and Joel Dreessen make for worthy starts this week, largely due to the ineptitude of the defenses. The Texans are giving up the most points to fantasy tight ends whilee the Eagles clock in at number five. Give me Celek by a nose, but both fine as TE1 plays and both find the end zone. Sure, why not...

MINNESOTA 26 Buffalo 24 (+5.5): Fantasy Angle - With three straight games over 20 fantasy points, it might seem obvious to start Fred Jackson while he is on a roll, even against the Vikings fifth-ranked run defense and with C.J. Spiller expected to return. Guess what, it is...

MIAMI 23 (-5) Cleveland 17: Fantasy Angle - Sounds like Brandon Marshall is going to play, great. With no touchdowns since week 3, only one game over 65 yards in that span and him coming off a hamstring injury that kept him out of action last week, he would be out of lineups in any two-WR leagues as well...

TENNESSEE 27 (-3) Jacksonville 23: Fantasy Angle - To Moss, or not to Moss, that is the question that owners have been plagued with for weeks on Randy's tour around the league. Over his last five games, Moss has - wait for it - five receptions, 57 yards, no scores. Certainly the matchup is stellar, but I'm willing to live with him having a big week on my bench rather than risk him posting another two points in my lineup.

KANSAS CITY 31 Denver 24 (+9.5): Fantasy Angle - Who would have guessed way back when that in Week 13 the best fantasy QB head-to-head matchup would feature Kyle Orton and Matt Cassel? Literally everyone you would think to play in this game tthe QB's, three runners, Bowe, Lloyd - should be active. Even Gaffney and Royal are worth looking at as WR3. Fine, not Chris Chambers, though I'm not even sure Mrs. Chambers has him active.

NY GIANTS 27 (-7) Washington 14: Fantasy Angle - Just did a quick look around my three friend fantasy league and every team that owns Keiland Williams has him in the starting lineup. Forget the fact that the Giants remain a top-10 run defense - even with a little slump lately - and assume Ryan Torain remains inactive. Even with all that, Williams is still not a viable fantasy play. The rookie from LSU is a fine utility option for an NFL team in need of a pass protector or low-end pass catcher, but his running instincts are poor. Williams runs into offensive lineman trying to block or him as often as

Chicago 28 (-4.5) DETROIT 17: Never thought I would miss Shaun Hill, but there, i said it. We'll see what Drew Stanton has to offer as a starter and maybe like Hill and Matthew Stafford before him, he keeps the offense humming. However, that's not a risk I am even close to taking. Have to roll with Calvin Johnson and maybe Brandon Pettigrew if you do not have another TE option, but Nate Burleson is a no go and Maurice Morris is a weak flex at best...

GREEN BAY 38 (-9.5) San Francisco 20: Brian Westbrook was the hottest fantasy pickup this week and rightfully so, but that is based on what he did last week, not what he is likely to do against the Packers. Even assuming he starts practicing by Friday after miss the last two days, Anthony Dixon will still get the goal line totes and the Niners are not going to overload the fragile Westbrook.Maybe he gets some garbage time passes after the Packers blow the game open, but anything beyond a flex play - and not a strong one at that - is unwise

New Orleans 28 (-6.5) CINCINNATI 20: Going back to the risk-reward factor, guess which side of that equation the Saints backfield falls on. Some desperate are likely to be saved from themselves as Pierre Thomas is no sure thing for this week and Reggie Bush had only two touches in his return. Julius Jones had 10 carries last week, but Chris Ivory scored two touchdowns. Yes, exactly, you get my point. If you must go with a Saints RB, Ivory is the call.

For the rest of these games, check out the FFToolbox Podcast - Thursday edition -for your fantasy angles. Players discussed include...

Atlanta 23 TAMPA BAY 21 (+3): Roddy White, LeGarrette Blount, Matt Ryan

SAN DIEGO 37 (-13) Oakland 20: Malcolm Floyd

SEATTLE 24 Carolina 19 (+6); Jonathan Stewart, Mike Goodson, Ben Obamanu. Steve Smith

INDIANAPOLIS 35 (-5.5) Dallas 27; Blair White, Mike Hart, Donald Brown, Dez Bryant

ARIZONA 22 (+3.5) St. Louis 21: Beanie Wells, Steven Jackson, Danario Alexander

BALTIMORE 17 (-3) Pittsburgh 13: Ben Roethlisberger, Joe Flacco, Anquan Boldin

NEW ENGLAND 23 NY Jets 21 (+3..5): Patriots backfield, LaDainian Tomlinson, Santonio Holmes, Braylon Edwards

Survivor Picks: These are my personal picks each week for my various (cough, cough) pools...well, they were before Wade Phillips and Jay Cutler ended my fun. Oh well, it was a fun two-year run of winning while it lasted. So for now, will just list my fave call without limitations...
***the only rule that I follow almost religiously involves taking home teams. Most of the upsets occur when the favorite goes on the road. So other than in scenarios where I have no other options (or say the Colts or Ravens are at the Rams or Bills), I am going with the home crowd...

Week 13 - San Diego: Division games are not ideal, but the Chargers are rolling and looking for revenge from their Week 5 loss to the Raiders. Chicago works, but overall a very tough week...Week 12 - NY Jets; Week 11 - Baltimore Week 10: Tampa Bay...Week 9 – Green Bay Week 8 – Kansas City Week 7 – Baltimore, Week 6 – Chicago, Week 5 – Indianapolis, Week 4 – Green Bay, Week 3 - New England, Week 2 – Dallas, San Diego, Week 1 - Tennessee, NY Giants