NFL Picks and Fantasy Angles - Week 8

Who will win, step up and get beat down in Week Eight of the NFL season...

These game predictions do not reflect the opinion of FFToolbox.com but just a solo fantasy writer who still can't believe that seven weeks into the season Ryan Fitzpatrick is tied for the best per game fantasy average among QB's. Come on, are we getting punked?

As a reminder, email any questions, be it about lineup fantasy decisions, trades, strategy or free agents, to podcast@fftoolbox.com and I will respond before the start of Sunday's action. Also do not forget to check out the weekly FFToolbox.com podcast - hosted by yours truly - every week or anytime via ITunes.

***For Week 9, the Podcast will be on Wednesday with special guests joining me to breakdown all the news and notes

Home Team in CAPS

Last week: Straight (8-6), Spread (8-6); Overall: Straight (60-44); Spread (58-44-2)

Denver 24 (+2) San Francisco 23: I keep trying to find reasons to pick either of the two entrants in The London Bowl, but that is harder than imagining why anyone would fly overseas to go this game (my buddy Dave is doing just that. Note we didn't copy his homework in college)…Fantasy Angle – The Niners will start Troy Smith in place of the injured Alex Smith and while that will not necessarily be a boon for the passing game (though it can't hurt their chances of actually winning), it will not matter since Frank Gore runs and runs and runs his way to being the top fantasy RB of the week.

DALLAS 28 (-6) Jacksonville 17: The Cowboys are on the verge of being totally down and out, but they are still better than the Jaguars, who have been defeated by at least 22 points in each of their four losses…Fantasy Angle - Jon Kitna went from holding a clipboard to being a viable fantasy option in less than a week. I get why folks are skeptical because, well, he is Jon Kitna, but whatever issues he has, the long-time NFL starter can move the Cowboys offense and find their many weapons; he just won't make enough plays to help them win tons of games. The Jaguars have allowed an NFL-high 16 TDP this season. That number will rise to 19 by the end of this week with scores to Dez Bryant, Felix Jones and Jason Witten, all of which makes Kitna my Sleeper of the Week.

DETROIT 27 (-2.5) Washington 23: An odd spread, but the perception (at least in fantasy) of the plucky 1-5 Lions and their improved offense actually seems more positive than the 4-3 Redskins…Fantasy Angle – Since this will be Matthew Stafford's first game back from injury, it is reasonable to expect the Lions passing game will be up and down. However, the Redskins defense is allowing 292 passing yards per game (31st in league). Everyone will of course start Calvin Johnson, but owners looking for a bye week option should consider adding CJ's opposite number, Nate Burleson, who has scored two straight weeks.

NY JETS 24 Green Bay 20 (+6): While the Packers might be the most battered and bruised team in the league, the rested Jets are coming off a bye week. Green Bay will keep it close, but the New Yorkers wear them down late…Fantasy Angle - Even though few are counting on the Packers ground game each week, do not expect much production fantasy-wise from the other sideline either. It might not be a shock to know that the Jets are allowing the fewest fantasy points to running backs, but odds are finding out the Packers are fourth in the category likely is. LaDainian Tomlinson is still an RB2, but do not look for a monster game.

ST.LOUIS 24 (-3) Carolina 19: Though I would like to pick the Panthers and believe that John Fox's crew is back on track with Matt Moore and Steve Smith in the lineup, this game ends up being more about the improved (at least at home) Rams...Fantasy Angle – In a week where six teams have a bye and Tony Romo plus maybe Brett Favre are out, lots of fantasy teams are surely scrambling for a QB this week. So I grant you beggars can't be choosers, but do not fall in love with Sam Bradford just because the Rams have a strong chance to win against the Panthers. Carolina's defense is currently allowing the fewest fantasy points per game. The difference is rather minute, but if made to pick between the two passers in this game, I would take Moore. Also, if DeAngelo Williams is out, look for Jonathan Stewart to break out.

Miami 23 (+1.5) CINCINNATI 20: Was listening to ESPN's Ron Jaworski on a local radio show today and he picked the Bengals, noting their season could be over with a loss. He is correct with the assessment of what a defeat would mean, but not with the pick. The Dolphins are stronger than their 3-3 record indicates and have suffered a couple of heartbreaking losses, last week's in particular. Their run to the playoffs begins now…Fantasy Angle – Brandon Marshall is a must start every week, but it's the Bengals passing attack that on paper should have an easier time of things this week. The Dolphins are giving up the sixth most points to fantasy receivers this season so both Terrell Owens and Chad Ochocinco - in that order - are WR2 worthy.

KANSAS CITY 27 Buffalo 21 (+8): With wins over the Chargers, Browns, Niners and Jaguars, the Chiefs 4-2 record might be a touch misleading. Off course, the job is take down the teams in front placed in front of you, something they will do again when they face the win less Bills… Fantasy Angle – The Chiefs have been running all over the opposition this year and now get to play the team giving up the most yards on the ground this year. How can you not love both Jamaal Charles and Thomas Jones this week?

SAN DIEGO 28 Tennessee 27 (+3.5): There is no logical reason to take the Chargers other than to say they are due, but they look to be getting (somewhat) healthier at receiver, so sure, the Bolts…Fantasy Angle – this one is more about the big picture instead of just this week and that is it feels like we have hit critical mass when it comes to Ryan Mathews. Random people I know have commented their displeasure if not flat out hatred for the Chargers rookie after his nearly invisible fantasy season to date. Call it a hunch, but look for a much more productive second half as the Chargers, who have one of the easier fantasy RB schedules going forward, look to feed Mathews and his 4.7 ypc more and more. Buy low.

ARIZONA 20 (-3) Tampa Bay 16: Consider this more about not buying the Bucs at 4-2 than it is an endorsement of the Cardinals, who will continue to struggle offensively with the not-ready-for-prime time Max Hall under center…Fantasy Angle – Easily one of the most disappointing fantasy backs this years has been Beanie Wells, who has only one touchdown and has failed to reach 80 total yards in game this season. That all changes this week as Wells finally gets going against the Bucs 31st ranked run defense. As long as the rookie QB does not commit too many turnovers, Wells makes for a solid RB2 this week and is my fantasy "sleeper" of the week.

OAKLAND 24 (-2.5) Seattle 17: It would be easy to go against the Raiders and give the points after they thrashed the Broncos last week, but I'm riding with the Silver and Black. Plus I am still not buying the Hasselbeck's on the road…Fantasy Angle - The Seahawks are a statistically strong run defense and are sure to load up against the Raiders ground game, but Oakland will get Darren McFadden the ball as both a runner and receiver. Ride the wave and keep expecting RB1 value from one of only two running backs to reach double figures in every game they have played in this year.

NEW ENGLAND 27 (-4) Minnesota 20: The will he or won't he play aspect surrounding Brett Favre will dominate the headlines right up until kick off. Tom Brady and the Pats offense will take over from there…Fantasy Angle – We have to talk about Randy Moss returning to Foxboro at some point here, right? The game-breaking wide out is the kind of player that rises to meet the moment (at least as it relates to him). If Favre is active, Moss finds the end zone, though does not have a prolific receiving day even with the Pats secondary being eh.

Pittsburgh 31 (+1.5) NEW ORLEANS 24: Was ready to start buying into the Saints again, but not falling for their act after that home debacle against the Browns. The loss of DE Aaron Smith is not to be overlooked, but the Steelers are still strong across the board and get the win in the Big Easy…Fantasy Angle – Ben Roethlisberger and the Steelers passing attack have been en fuego since the QB returned to the lineup, but this game feels like a chance to get Rashad Mendenhall. The power runner has averaged only 3.0 yards per carry over the last three games and while the Saints are middle of the pack in terms of rush yards allowed, they are allowing 22 fantasy points per game to backs.

INDIANAPOLIS 34 (-6) Houston 24: The Colts were rocked by the Texans in the season opener, still cannot stop the run and their offense has been crushed by injuries. Clearly all of that means I am picking…the Colts! I'll take Peyton Manning on a revenge kick…Fantasy Angle – As for the three replacements that the Colts will be integrating into the lineup this week, RB Donald Brown has the best chance to succeed, though the 2009 first round pick has been dealing with his bumps and bruises. The true flyer is TE Jacob Tamme, who enters the game without a catch on the season, but faces a Texans defense that is allowing the most points to tight ends among all the week nine teams. Tamme is a risky play until we actually see how the Colts use him, but he is an intriguing bye week option. WR Anthony Gonzalez is worth rostering in 12+ team leagues, but not an advisable WR3 or flex option due to uncertainty over his own health.

Survivor Picks: These are my personal picks each week for my various (cough, cough) pools
***The only rule that I follow almost religiously involves taking home teams. Most of the upsets occur when the favorite goes on the road (note many folks lost when they took Bengals, Chargers or Saints away from home). So other than in scenarios where I have no other options (or say the Colts or Ravens are at the Rams or Bills), I am going with the home crowd...

Week 8 - Kansas City. Not a great week, but the Chiefs have been playing aggressively and with confidence. That should be enough to get them past the Bills. If you can stomach it, the Cowboys are another option.
Therefore my picks will know simply consist of my three top plays on any given week, regardless of who was used before.
Week 7 – Baltimore, Week 6 – Chicago, Week 5 – Indianapolis, Week 4 – Green Bay, Week 3 - New England, Week 2 – Dallas, San Diego, Week 1 - Tennessee, NY Giants