NFL Picks and Fantasy Angles - Week 6

Who will win, step up and get beat down in Week Six of the NFL season...

These fantasy musings and game predictions do not reflect the opinion of FFToolbox.com but just a solo fantasy writer who cannot take another injury to his various squads. Vick, Moreno, McFadden, Steve Smith, Pierre Thomas and now Finley. Enough!

As a reminder, email any questions, be it about lineup fantasy decisions, trades, strategy or free agents, to podcast@fftoolbox.com and I will respond before the start of Sunday's action. Also do not forget to check out the weekly FFToolbox.com podcast - hosted by yours truly - every Tuesday or anytime via ITunes.

Home Team in CAPS

Last week: Straight (6-8), Spread (8-6); Overall: Straight (44-32); Spread (40-34-2)

San Diego 24 ST. LOUIS 23 (+8.5): The Chargers are 0-3 on the road this season while the Rams only two wins came in the shadow of the Arch. At some point the Bolts will get it going and no better time against a Rams squad that looked abysmal against the Lions last week…Fantasy Angle – Where are all those Philip Rivers haters who were saying his fantasy value would drop like Lindsay Lohan's career without Vincent Jackson and Marcus McNeil. The excitable QB throws for over 300 yards for the fourth this season and throws for at least two touchdown passes, something he has done in every game this campaign.

HOUSTON 27 Kansas City 24 (+4.5): It wasn't that long ago that it was looking like a special season for the Texans after dramatic wins over the Colts and Redskins, Since then they are 1-2 with both losses coming in blowout style. The Chiefs are proving to be legit, but the Texans kick the game-winner late in the fourth. FANTASY ANGLE - Dwayne Bowe is already on thin ice with fantasy owners. If he can't have a solid fantasy day against the 32nd ranked pass defense, his remaining starter value plummets. Fortunately, he goes for at least 5-80-1 to keep the fantasy grim reaper away.

NEW ENGLAND 21 Baltimore 20 (+2.5): Cannot wait to see how the Patriots offense functions without Randy Moss. Considering the opponent, I saying getting 21 points will be job well done…Fantasy Angle – Aaron Hernandez may not light up the Ravens, but this is the beginning of him being a top shelf target in the Patriots aerial attack. Get him now while you can.

TAMPA BAY 23 (+4) New Orleans 21: Say what you want about Reggie Bush never living up to the hype he entered the league with, but the Saints offense has looked rather pedestrian without him. Factor in no Pierre Thomas as well and the Saints' struggles continue…Fantasy Angle – Does anyone out there realize that Josh Freeman has scored at least 15 fantasy points in three of four games this season? With a rather soft schedule over the next three weeks, the second-year signal caller is looking a solid QB2 with starter/bye week potential. Look for another 15+ point outing when he faces the Saints.

Atlanta 27 (+3) PHILADELPHIA 20: So much focus has been made on who the Eagles starting QB will be - Kolb is the expected starter – that folks aren't noticing that he will be running plenty if LT Jason Peters is out, which it appears he will be. If the Eagles can handle Falcons DE John Abraham, they can win, but look for the sacker to make life miserable for Kolb. He'll at least cause enough havoc to help the Dirty Birds improve to 5-1…Fantasy Angle - It will be very interesting to see what Andy Reid has to say about his starting QB after Kevin Kolb rocks the Falcons with 250+ yards and two scores. Kolb at least does better than Matt Ryan, who has thrown for one or no scores in three of his five starts this season.

NY GIANTS 31 Detroit 23 (+10): Considering how dominant the Giants have looked the past two weeks, they are due for a letdown against the 1-4 Lions. Due? Yes. Succumb? No…Fantasy Angle – Eli Manning, Hakeem Nicks, Steve Smith and even Kevin Boss (as a bye week option), get them in your lineup this week against a Lions secondary that would struggle to cover Frank Gifford and Mark Bavaro right now.

CHICAGO 34 (-6.5) Seattle 17: The Seahawks home and road splits are more diverse than the cast of "Community" and nearly as funny. As long as Todd Collins does not have to make any kind of appearance for the Bears, they win easy…Fantasy Angle – Jay Cutler is back after missing 1 ½ games with a concussion. The blow to the head has helped gloss over a downturn in Cutler's consistency in his last two games, not to mention how he was the direct cause of so many of those sacks against the Giants by holding onto the ball too long. The matchup is too strong to pass up. Let's hope he rises to the occasion.

GREEN BAY 24 Miami 23 (+4): No team has been more crushed by injuries than the Packers, who have now lost Jermichael Finley for the rest of the regular season, which comes on top of season-ending injuries to Ryan Grant and Nick Barnett. It does sound as if Aaron Rodgers will give it a whirl, which means Greg Jennings and Donald Driver are good to go. Somehow, the Pack band together and tough it out against a spunky Dolphins squad that has had a bye week to game plan. This could be the game of the week…Fantasy Angle – more for down the line than this week, but look for more James Jones and even Jordy Nelson in the absence of Finley. The Pack already used three and four receiver sets plenty, but without a reliable tight end right now (especially since backup Donald Lee is also out) and the running game not holding up their end, more wide out production is coming.

10/16 update, 10:32 p.m. - Lee (chest) ended up practicing at the end of the week and now looks likely to play. He is not near the pass receiving threat that Finley and though he might catch a short TD here and there, do not expect anything more than randomTE2 production at best. Jones/Nelson will still benefit from the loss of Finley.

PITTSBURGH 27 (-13.5) Cleveland 7: Come on. Colt McCoy to get his first pro start against the Steel Curtain? You are kidding me, right? Talk about lambs to the slaughter. If the rookie officially gets the call, the Browns have as much of a chance of winning as LeBron James has at being elected mayor of Cleveland…Fantasy Angle – Ben Roethlisberger returns to action, much to the delight of Hines Ward, Mike Wallace and Heath Miller owners. For this week, if I had to pick one, I'd go with Wallace; since there could be some rust with the QB that will show up more on shorter timing throws, which are the domain of the other two. If Roethlisberger can chuck it deep, the speedy Wallace will run under it.

NY Jets 24 (-3) DENVER 17: An easy spot to pick against Rex Ryan's crew, going on the road to the Mile High City after knocking off Favre and Moss on Monday Night. But guess what, the J-E-T-S are on a roll and keep it going…Fantasy Angle – Knowshon Moreno (hamstring) is expected to practice on Friday and thus is inching closer to playing after sitting out the last three games. Whether he does or not, you don't want to use him against the Jets fourth-ranked run defense. This goes 10 fold for any of other Denver backs.

SAN FRANCISCO 26 (-6.5) Oakland 16: This line doesn't make sense. Not that the Raiders are all that, but the Silver and Black have come to play more than not this year, including last week when they upset the Chargers. Yet the 0-5 Niners are nearly a touchdown favorite? I'm running to the smell on this one…Fantasy Angle – Darren McFadden (hamstring) is iffy to play this week and even if he does, Raiders coach Tom Cable said it will be as a backup. That means Michael Bush is looking like a fantasy starter yet again and 15+ fantasy points are there for the taking.

Dallas 27 (+1.5) MINNESOTA 22: This would have been viewed as the game of the week before the season started as both squads were viewed as legitimate Super Bowl contenders. The matchup still gets that tag, but now more for the car wreck you have to look at angle since the loser will fall to 1-4. Sorry Vikings fans…Fantasy Angle – Roy Williams has been shredded – and rightfully so – for much of his time with the Cowboys, but he has produced consecutive stellar performances. With the Vikings losing their starting corner to a season-ending knee injury and their top backup is expected to miss this game, Williams is in a great spot to make it three straight. No wonder on this week's podcast I picked him to be my sleeper of the week.

Indianapolis 26 (-3) WASHINGTON 20: Not quite sure how the Redskins defeated Vick/Kolb and Aaron Rodgers over the past two weeks. Can't say its smoke and mirrors – getting turnovers helps – but I need to see more before I can pick them to beat Peyton Manning…Fantasy Angle – If the Redskins are to pull off the win, they will need to control the clock and that means cranking up the ground game. Ryan Torain has the backfield to himself for now and gets to run all over a Colts defense that has been a sieve against the run.

Tennessee 24 (-3) JACKSONVILLE 20: Kudos to the Jags for pulling off back-to-back wins. Too bad that runs ends against the Titans, who will win consecutive games for the first time this season. Fantasy Angle - It might be too late, but scoop up Kenny Britt where possible and start him against a Jaguars secondary that has allowed an NFL-high 12 touchdown passes.

Survivor Picks: These are my personal picks each week for my various (cough, cough) pools
***The only rule that I follow almost religiously involves taking home teams. Most of the upsets occur when the favorite goes on the road (note many folks lost when they took Bengals, Chargers or Saints away from home). So other than in scenarios where I have no other options (or say the Colts or Ravens are at the Rams or Bills), I am taking home favs.

Week 6 – Chicago; Obviously Pittsburgh looks to be the safest play on the board and if you haven't used the Giants, they are a close second. While I am not looking past this week, I'd like to save the Steelers, especially since I have already used several of the likely playoff-bound teams, including the Giants. The Bears are a team I do not trust a ton, but against the lowly Seahawks who have been brutal on the road, I'm in.

Week 5 – Indianapolis, Week 4 – Green Bay, Week 3 - New England, Week 2 – Dallas, San Diego, Week 1 - Tennessee, NY Giants