NFL Picks and Fantasy Angles - Week 4

Who will win, step up and get beat down in Week Three of the NFL season...

These fantasy musings and game predictions do not reflect the opinion of FFToolbox.com but just a solo fantasy writer who is thrilled that 30 Rock was back on the ball this week. Tracy Jordan in the Cash Cab equals comedy gold!

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Home Team in CAPS

Last week: Straight (8-8), Spread (6-10); Overall: Straight (29-19); Spread (25-21-2)

TENNESSEE 27 (-6.5) Denver 17: The Kyle Orton experience will continue to run with great reviews even against a stout Titans defense, but the lack of a running game dooms the Broncos. That and Chris Johnson left, Chris Johnson right and Chris Johnson in the open field…FANTASY ANGLE – Even though the Titans pass defense currently ranks fifth in the NFL, allowing only 178 yards per game, Orton will top 290 yards for the fourth straight game this season.

Baltimore 13 (+2) PITTSBURGH 10: What should be a great NFL game will not exactly provide an explosion of fantasy points. The Ravens defense will not allow Charlie Batch to get away with some of his errant throws the way the Bucs did last week and they lead Baltimore to a key road win…FANTASY ANGLE - Even though you still start Rashard Mendenhall and – if active – Ray Rice, do not count on either stud running back finding the end zone; both teams have allowed only one rushing touchdown on the year, best in the NFL. Anquan Boldin is another must start, though his QB Joe Flacco should be planted on fantasy benches.

Cincinnati 23 CLEVELAND 21 (+3): Former Heisman Trophy winner Carson Palmer will not need to give back the award, in spite of his putrid play early on, but he should no longer be viewed as a fantasy starter. Frankly, I'd go with the likes of Josh Freeman, Matt Cassel and perhaps Bruce Gradkowski as my QB2 over Palmer. Still, the Browns simply do not have enough offense to put them over the top in this one and the Bengals ground game and defense lead them to the win…FANTASY ANGLE – Most fantasy squads should be covered with a viable fantasy tight end this season, but if you have Visante Shiancoe or Jason Witten on a bye, look to Jermaine Gresham this week. The Bengals rookie led the team last week with 59 yards and the Browns are allowing the third most fantasy points to tight end's this season (this comes per the FFToolbox Matchup Analyzer).

GREEN BAY 38 (-14) Detroit 22: It sure felt like the Packers were going to score a ton more points against a good Bears defense than they actually did Monday night. Against the Lions woeful secondary, the actual results will match the perception as Aaron Rodgers throws for three scores, including the first TD of the year for Jermichael Finley…FANTASY ANGLE – The Packers ground game has been less than exciting since this season, but with an early lead likely, this is a game where both John Kuhn and Brandon Jackson could shine as flex options. Give the slight edge to the fullback Kuhn based on him being first in line for goal line totes.

NEW ORLEANS 27 Carolina 14 (+13.5): The Saints offense has hardly resembled the Super Bowl winning version and now is dealing with injuries to Drew Brees and Pierre Thomas. The lack of crispness in the attack might come back to bite them in the coming weeks, but they are good to go against the Panthers toothless attack…FANTASY ANGLE – The late word is that Ladell Betts will be the starter if Thomas is inactive. Betts might get the start and more snaps over Chris Ivory due to his experience and being the better pass blocker, but Ivory was given ample touches a week ago with Thomas in the lineup. I'm rolling with Ivory at this point.

ATLANTA 28 (-6.5) San Francisco 17: Matt Ryan has no issues on the road last week and Michael Turner looked no worse for wear coming back from injury. Meanwhile the Niners fired their offensive coordinator and look to be another bad result or two away from letting the season get away from them. As the saying goes, don't catch a falling knife, meaning we are taking the dirty birds…FANTASY ANGLE - Tony Gonzalez finally showed up this season with a 100+ yards and a score against the Saints and now faces a Niners defense that has allowed touchdowns to tight ends the past two weeks. Expect more of the same this week. All of your Falcons starters should be active this week.

ST. LOUIS 27 (+1.5) Seattle 24: The two expected NFC West bottom feeders came up with impressive wins a week ago and someone is going to have get the W in this one (well, in theory). Still not ready to buy in Pete Carroll's crew and while the likely absence of Steven Jackson puts a damper on the Rams chances, I'm rolling with the home team…FANTASY ANGLE – This will be one of the higher scoring games this week – if not the season – that will have so few players in actual fantasy lineups. Justin Forsett, John Carlson and Matt Hasselbeck (bye week option) are the best options on Seattle while Danny Amendola is a sneaky PPR WR3 play. RB Kenneth Darby does not excite me even with Jackson out.

NY Jets 27 (-5) BUFFALO 17: Darrelle Revis has been ruled out of this game with a lingering left hamstring injury, but the Bills passing game will still not come close to putting a scare into the Jets defense. That's all you need to know about this game, Jets easy…FANTASY ANGLE - LaDainian Tomlinson is the Jets back to own right now, but both he and Shonn Greene will be in line for solid fantasy numbers against a Bills defense that is allowing 141 yards per game. They have also given up five touchdowns on the ground, tying them with the Lions for most in the league.

Indianapolis 35 (-7) JACKSONVILLE 17: The Jaguars secondary has already allowed seven TDP this season and now the Colts aerial assault comes to town. This one normally is a division battle, but Indy turns it into a laugher, or at least makes it non-competitive after halftime…FANTASY ANGLE - As the Colts deal with injuries to their running backs and receivers, others get to shine and since anyone that plays with Peyton Manning has a shot to be a playa, you have to take notice. That means receiver Blair White, who scored a touchdown last week, is a WR3 sleeper in deeper leagues. The sleeper tag also can apply to backup runner Mike Hart now that Joseph Addai (knee) is listed as questionable and Donald Brown (hamstring) is iffy at best to play.

Houston 28 OAKLAND 27 (+3.5): The Texans offense will be limping into the Bay Area with both Andre Johnson (ankle) and Owen Daniels (hamstring) looking like game-time decisions while their defense is 31st in the league against the pass. Good for them that Arian Foster continues to run well and now gets to do so against a Raiders defense that is allowing 133 rush yards per game…FANTASY ANGLE – Bruce Gradkowski has been aggressive in the passing game and with the Texans giving up yards but the boat load, he makes a for sneaky fantasy start this week. Louis Murphy should be the prime beneficiary now that his clavicle injury is not expected to keep him out of the lineup.

SAN DIEGO 30 Arizona 23 (+8): Who said Philip Rivers' fantasy numbers would pale in comparison to his previous season totals without Vincent Jackson and Marcus McNeil? Not me, that's for sure. Through three games, the Chargers emotional passer stands third in scoring among fantasy quarterbacks. What should have been clear before now is officially; Rivers makes his receivers, not the other way around. Look for 275+ yards and two scores against the Cardinals, who will have a harder time keeping up without receivers Steve Breaston (knee) and Early Doucet (groin)…FANTASY ANGLE - After practicing on Friday, Ryan Mathews (ankle) is looking like he will return to action this week. Though there is a risk of a re-injury and Mike Tolbert remains in place to snag some goal line looks, Mathews is at least a RB2 play, on paper at least. Afterall, the Cards are 31st against the run, allowing 146 yards per game. Let's just hope the rookie doesn't fumble the ball away like he did once in each of his first two games.

PHILADELPHIA 24 Washington 23 (+6.5): The return of Donovan McNabb is the major story line in this one, but the inspired play of Michael Vick has threatened to steal some of the attention. Both are clearly QB1 options this week and both deliever, but the difference in the game is that even though the Redskins defense will play better than their current dead last ranking would suggest, Vick has the more explosive weapons. By far…FANTASY ANGLE – Whether Ryan Torain is the answer to the Redskins ground game woes or not, look for this to be the week that we get to find out. Mike Shanahan said on Monday that the plan in week three was to use Torain more, but that the game circumstances prevented the Redskins from running much at all in the second half. Even though Torain and Clinton Portis each received seven carries, Shanahan said the discrepancy in carries would have been much more pronounced at the game been closer. The risk is high for this week, but I'd roll with Torain over Portis this week.

NY GIANTS 24 (-3.5) Chicago 20: This may not be a circle the wagons type moment, but the Giants are desperate for a win. With the Bears coming off an emotional Monday night win, the Giants urgency - and their passing game - fuels the win and the cover...FANTASY ANGLE – Greg Olsen has scored two weeks in a row and caught five passes for 64 yards against the Packers in the Monday night win. Look for more of the same against a Giants defense allowing over 10 fantasy points per game to opposing tight ends.

MIAMI 34 (+1.5) New England 31: Perhaps I am a little slow coming to this realization, but after seeing the Patriots give up 30 points to a usually punch-less Bills attack, it is clear the Super Bowl winning defense is clearly a thing of the past. Considering the Dolphins always seem to show a wrinkle or two against their division nemesis, I look for the Ronnie Brown-Ricky Williams combo to have their best game on the season. ..FANTASY ANGLE – Per ESPN.com's Tim Graham, the Dolphins are on pace to allow opposing tight end's 69 receptions for 1,099 yards and 11 touchdowns this season. Ouch. Rookie Aaron Hernandez has already shown to be a factor for the Pats and Tom Brady will be looking for him plenty against this defense.

Survivor Picks: These are my personal picks each week for my various (cough, cough) pools
***The only rule that I follow almost religiously involves taking home teams. Most of the upsets occur when the favorite goes on the road, so other than in scenarios where I have no other options or say the Colts are at the Rams, I am taking home favs.

Week 4 – Green Bay: Looking at the home game factor, this is clearly the Packers best remaining option at Lambeau unless the Niners continue to be brutal. Thus they get the nod over the Saints, who still have home dates against the Browns, Seahawks, Rams and Bucs on the schedule. The Chargers are also decent play if you still have them available.
Week 3 - New England
Week 2 – Dallas, San Diego.
Week 1 - Tennessee, NY Giants