Best Bets for Week Three of the NFL season

Who will win, step up and get beat down in Week Three of the NFL season...

Since I am way behind in preparation for my flight this evening to New Orleans for what will like be an eventful bachelor party weekend, I will just leave you all with some quick fantasy plays I like this week before I list the other kind of the picks, which of course are always for informational purposes only...These fantasy thoughts are based on players that are not overt starts each week, have been suspect year to date or are expected to fall below their normal weekly value. In addition, these musings do not reflect the opinion of FFToolbox.com but just a solo fantasy writer with too much time on his hands...

Thumbs Up:

QB: Aaron Rodgers, Trent Edwards, Jake Delhomme

RB: Brandon Jacobs, Fred Jackson, Tashard Choice (if Marion Barber sits)

WR: Greg Jennings, Lee Evans, Steve Smith (NYG), Mark Clayton, Malcolm Kelly (for deep leagues only)

TE: Brent Celek, Jermichael Finley

K: Nate Kaeding, Rian Lindell, Ryan Longwell

Def: Broncos

Thumbs Down:

QB: Carson Palmer, Kyle Orton

RB: Thomas Jones, Larry Johnson

WR: Justin Gage, Dwayne Bowe

TE: John Carlson

Def: Falcons

Last week: 10-6 straight, 9-7 spread

Overall: 23-9 straight; 18-14 spread

Tennessee 17 (+1.5) NY Jets 16: While I called for the Titans to slip this year and miss the playoffs, I just can't see them falling to 0-3...I know Usain Bolt is the fastest man in the world, but I would to see a race between him and Chris Johnson in full pads, carrying the rock and having defenders chasing them. CJ would make for a nice underdog wager.

Houston 31(-3.5) Jacksonville 24: Good news for Jaguars fans; since your squad is on the road, you actually get to watch them on TV this week. Too bad the footage will be mostly R rated when the Texans have the ball.

Philadelphia 27 (-7.5) Kansas City 14: The non-football sequitur of the week...Philly sports fans need the win after watching more and more of the imploding Brad Lidge on the baseball diamond. Hard to see the Phils get passed the Dodgers even with their imposing lineup because of the chaos in their bullpen...As for Kansas City, if Zack Greinke is not a near unanimous Cy Young award winner, then all 27 of the Royals fans should take to the streets.

Baltimore 31 (-13) Cleveland 17: The Ravens offensive juggernaut keeps on rolling on, topping 30 points for the third straight game, though this time Ed Reed joins the fun with an interception return. The Joe Flacco-to-Mark Clayton will produce a long TD this week ...At what point do we start putting Brady Quinn into the Alex Smith/David Carr bust category? The Ravens secondary has been beatable this season, but Quinn does not possess the weapons nor the game to hurt them much at this point.

NY Giants 27 (-6.5) Tampa Bay 10: How about the "other Steve Smith". Been touting him all offseason and he delivered in a big way against the Cowboys. Of course, the guy that overshadowed by his namesake in Carolina now gets upstaged by his Giants teammate Mario Manningham. Smith remains the most consistent Giants receiver this season...If you want to make a run at Brandon Jacobs from some panicky owner, do it now before he scores twice against the Bucs...Byron Leftwich has thrown for 572 yards this season, The last time he threw for that many yards in back-to-back games? Weeks 6 and 7 during the 2004 season. Even though the Bucs will be forced to throw a lot this year as they trail late in games, trade Leftwich now if anyone is sniffing around for a deal. As the losses mount, the Bucs will eventually turn to Josh Johnson or Josh Freeman to see what they have waiting in the wings

Washington 23 Detroit 20 (+6): The losing streak continues in the Motor City, but it takes a late defensive stand by Albert Haynesworth and crew to keep the Lions out of the winning column...Jason Campbell throws a nice deep ball, but the Redskins game plan - or the QB's decision's - have him throwing it short more often. This week, he airs it out for not one, but two 30+ yard TD passes.

Green Bay 24 St. Louis 20 (+6.5): Covering the Rams locker room in their Week 2 loss at Washington, I got a close up look at the multiple bruises and welts covering Marc Bulger's back and arms after several redskins defenders unloaded on him during the game. The discoloration was so plentiful it made me think Chris Brown and Ike Turner took turns whacking him with a baseball bat...after watching the beating Aaron Rodgers is taking behind his leaky offensive line, I fear he could meet the same fate, but he finds Greg Jennings and Jermichael Finley for score this week.

Minnesota 20 San Francisco 16 (+6.5): The owners that passed on Adrian Peterson take one step closer to the rubber room when All Day posts 135 yards and a score.

New England 27 (-4) Atlanta 21: After watching Julian Edeleman catch eight passes in Week 2, I suddenly remembered I needed to make an appointment with my ophthalmologist. Nice and surprising effort Julian, but Pats fans are hoping Wes Welker is ready to go...Will Tony Gonzalez score his third TD in as many weeks? Yes, yes he will.

Chicago 24 (-1.5) Seattle 17: If Matt Hasselebeck can play, Seattle wins, but at this point that is looking less likely than Serena Williams winning a Miss Congeniality award...Matt Forte owners fear not. Your number one pick busts loose for 130+ total yards and a score. Greg Olsen owners however will have to deal with another 3-41 stat line...

Buffalo 30 (+6) New Orleans 27: Normally I would say a team like the Bills would have a hard time keeping up with the Saints offense, but you have to be impressed with what the Fred Jackson led attack has done so far. Home field puts them over the top against a Saints squad that already may be forced to start their backup to their backup at running back.

San Diego 23 Miami 20 (+6): As the saying goes, you have to be strong up the middle to win championships. Injuries to C Nick Hardwick and NT Jamal Williams, who

Pittsburgh 20 Cincinnati 17 (+4): The Bengals defense shows they are legit with another strong outing, but the Steelers air game and relentless pass rush get the job done

Denver 23 (-1.5) Oakland 20: Raise your hands if you had the Broncos at 3-0 after what they went through this offseason? Of course, they need all the wins they can get right now with a frightening schedule on the horizon, but so far so good...Considering the horrific mess that is JaMarcus Russell and their depth in the backfield, aren't the Raiders an ideal candidate to run the Wildcat as their base offense?

Indianapolis 30 (+2.5) Arizona 21: I wonder if Peyton Manning scores as quickly with the ladies as he did against the Dolphins. Imagine what numbers he would have produced with a 50-50 split of the game clock. Wow...Memo to Bill Parcells: next year, go out and get a big time receiver. Ted Ginn is not the answer and eventually (I think) the Wildcat offense will found out. But with Ronnie Brown and that offensive line, this could be a formidable unit with a playmaker on the outside...

Dallas 30 Carolina 23 (+8.5): if your life depended on it, would you rather to rely on Jake Delhomme or Tony Romo not to commit a turnover? I will let you noodle that one over the weekend...

Survivor Picks: These are my personal picks each week for my various (cough, cough) pools

Week 1 - New Orleans, Baltimore

Week 2 - Washington, Green Bay

Week 3 - Baltimore