Projecting the NCAA Field - Sunday PM edition

Who are the four top seeds? Who will be dancing and who will crying? FFToolbox tackles those questions in our NCAA Tournament Bracket preview...

My favorite non-game event every year, the announcement of the NCAA Tournament field, is almost here. Whether your team's bid is already assured or they are on that nasty bubble, the reveal of the field is an exhilarating moment that comes with the excitement and drama normally associated with an actual big game and that is before we all get to fill out our own office pool bracket.

Like a kid at Christmas, I cannot wait to tear into the wrapped gifts, so I present my own bracket projections; including naming the top seeds and the squads that will pick up those final at-large bids. Once the official field of 65 is announced tonight, I will post a fast break like analysis tonight with a complete bracket breakdown Monday morning with all the sleepers, keys and predictions you need before filling out your office pool bracket. Of course we all have our take on who should be in and who will win it all so feel free to add your thoughts and predicitions in the comments field below...

Top five seeds per region

East: Pittsburgh, Duke, Kansas, Purdue, Arizona State

South: UNC, Oklahoma, Villanova, Syracuse, UCLA

Midwest: Louisville, Michigan St. Missouri, Florida St., Xavier

West: UConn, Memphis, Wake Forest, Washington, Gonzaga

- The fourth #1 seed comes down to UConn and Memphis and while I suspect the selection committee does not have the stomach to put three Big East schools on the top line, I think the Huskies should be the pick. Each team has solid non-conference wins (both won at Gonzaga; Memphis beat Tennessee while UConn defeated Michigan), but Jim Calhoun's crew has more quality victories. That is before dissecting the conference resumes, where the Huskies fearsome schedule was clearly superior to the Tigers annual beat down of their paper lion opponents. This is not a knock against Memphis, which took care of business in Conference USA from start to finish, though do not confuse this group with the Derrick Rose-led team from a year ago. Even with a loss in the first round of the Big East Tournament, though in epic six-OT fashion, Connecticut had the superior regular season, especially factoring in the highly ranked target they had on their back much of the season.

- Villanova's two regular season wins over Syracuse keeps them ahead of the Orange despite their touted and exhausting Big East tournament run. If the committee rewards the Orange, the Demon Deacons or Jayhawks could drop a line, the latter setting up a potential Roy Williams vs. Kansas reunion.

- The potential Huskies-Zags second round matchup would have the Emerald City buzzing more than a venti coffee with a triple shot of caffeine ever would.

- Purdue and Florida State clinched a top-4 seed with a run to their respective tournament finals, but a win today probably does not bump them up farther.

Bids by Conference

ACC (7) – UNC, Duke, Wake Forest, FSU, Clemson, Boston College, Maryland
Big East (7) – Louisville, Pittsburgh, UConn, Villanova, Syracuse, WVU, Marquette
Big 10 (7) – Mich. St., Purdue, Illinois, Ohio St., Michigan, Minnesota, Wisconsin
Big 12 (6) – Oklahoma, Kansas, Missouri, Texas, Oklahoma State, Texas A&M
Pac 10 (5) – Washington, Arizona State, UCLA, California, USC
Atlantic 10 (3) – Xavier, Dayton, Temple
SEC (3) – LSU, Tennessee, Mississippi State
Mountain West (2) – BYU, Utah
Horizon (2) – Butler, Cleveland State
WCC (2) – Gonzaga, St. Mary's

Final Cuts

Last four in: Dayton, Maryland, Wisconsin, St. Mary's
Last four out: Arizona, San Diego State, Creighton, Penn St.
Others out: Auburn, UNLV, Virginia Tech, New Mexico

- If your team is on the outside looking in, feel free to give the stink eye to Cleveland State, Southern Cal, Temple and Mississippi State, as none of those teams would have qualified without winning their conference's automatic bid (Shortly after this post went up, the Bulldogs earned the SEC's automatic bid today. That knocked Arizona, who I originally had as the last team in, out of my field of 65 projection).

- The negatives for Maryland (home loss to Morgan State, 7-9 conference record, four defeats of 20+ points) and Arizona (no significant road wins, lost five of final six games) are significant, but they have the most impressive wins (Terps beat UNC, Michigan State, Wake Forest; Wildcats defeated Kansas, Washington, Gonzaga, UCLA) of all the bubble teams. The Terps were better down the stretch and get the big boy school nod over the Wildcats

- The injury to Patty Mills, along with St. Mary's attempt to schedule a strong non-conference schedule (wins over Oregon, Southern Illinois and Kent State not as impressive as they would be in most years), should give the selection committee folk enough room to warrant putting the Gaels in the field. Yes, they lost three times to Gonzaga (though the Gaels led the Zags on the road at halftime when Mills went down), but they have quality wins over Utah State, San Diego State and Providence to fall back on. Coming off a horrid WCC Tourney, Mills looked solid in the Friday night non-conference win over 12-18 Eastern Washington and that could sway members on the committee, as the Gaels were ranked this season when their point guard was healthy. The eye taste for the Gaels remains blurry, but I see them as in the field and if so, they will receive the most scrutiny of any at-large team.

- On the flip side, San Diego State posted enough good wins in the strong Mountain West - combined with a potent non-conference schedule - to get in, but the loss to St. Mary's on a neutral court is the tiebreaker.

- Sorry Big 10 fans, but despite what the flawed RPI says, your conference is not strong enough to warrant eight bids and one could argue that seven is too many as both Wisconsin and Penn State have flawed non-conference results. They both have significant conference wins, but the Badgers sweep of the Nittany Lions gives them the nod.

- The Missouri Valley is a solid conference that deserves multiple bids most years and Creighton had an 11-game winning streak before being thumped in the conference tournament. That let down, combined with only two wins (Dayton, Northern Iowa) over teams projected in the big dance, is probably enough of an excuse to keep them on the sideline.

- Despite a strong close to the season, the perceived down year for the SEC, along a weak non-conference schedule, has Auburn, along with conference rivals South Carolina and Florida, heading to the NIT.