Best Bets for Week 14 of the NFL season, Thursday Night Football edition

Who will win, step up and get beat down in Week 14 of the NFL season...

This post goes out to all those that have or will listen to this week's podcast. After an hour-long, detailed breakdown of 14 NFL games, technical difficulties (freekin nameless phone/internet provider) caused an abrupt end to the show as our panel, including fellow FFToolbox.com writers Rob Warner and Chris Weeks, was finishing up the entire Week 14 card. Therefore, here is a taste of our take on the two games we did not get too, our favorite sleeper plays and my Thursday night pick...

As always, these fantasy musings do not reflect the opinion of FFToolbox.com, but just a solo fantasy writer (getting some help this week) with too much time on his hands now that he finished his stimulating football recruiting trip to the University of Tennessee ...

My thoughts on the receivers in the Sunday Night, NFC East battle between the Eagles and Giants:

DeSean Jackson (concucssion) and Brian Westbrook (concussion) returned to Eagles practice on Wednesday, though the RB was a limited participant. Obviously owners will need to monitor the situation throughout the week, but all signs point to Jackson returning to his normal starting role. The second-year spark burned the Giants for 3-78-1 earlier this season and should be the Eagles primary producer against a Giants defense that continues to give up big chunks of yards in the passing game. As for Westbrook, he is still unlikely to play this week and for now I would be cautious about expecting him to see viable action during the regular season. Keep him on your roster just in case, but I would need to see a lot from Westbrook before I felt comfortable sticking him in my lineup in these most important of weeks.

Besides Jackson and the Giants Steve Smith, Eagles rookie Jeremy Maclin is the best receiver play in this game. Though he has not scored in his last three games, Maclin is averaging five receptions and 70 receiving yards in that stretch. Plus the former Mizzou star scored against the Giants this year. All of that makes him a low end WR2 or WR3/flex option...Hakeem Nicks, Mario Manningham and Jason Avant are all potential WR3 candidates in deeper leagues, though I think I would roll the dice with Avant one more week, especially in PPR leagues...

Here is Rob's take on the Monday night tilt between the Cardinals and Niners, including his look at the two quarterbacks:

Alex Smith - favorable matchup this week as he faces Arizona defense that allows 258 yards/game. Also in week 16 he faces a Detroit secondary that is a league worst allowing 281 yards/ game. I would start him over Jay Cutler this week but have Schaub and Palmer ranked higher in week 14...

I would avoid the running games in this Arz/SF matchups and am not real high on Frank Gore. He has some value as the 49ers use him extensively in the passing game but the 49ers rank dead last in the NFL in rushing attempts at 21/game. Gore has just 32 rushing attempts over the past three games (vs. GB, JAX, SEA). Alex Smith excels in the spread offense which contrasts with the smash mouth style that coach Singletary advocated early in the year...

I would start all WR that you usually start (maybe even Breaston) and bump Michael Crabtree up this week as I expect that 49ers will need to throw in order to keep up with the Cardinals...

Kurt Warner appears to be past any concussion problems and should be good to go despite sustaining a hip injury towards the end of the week 13 win over the Vikings. The game against SF is on Monday night so Warner gets an extra day of rest. The Cardinals offense struggled under Matt Leinart in week 12 against Tenn. so they want Warner in there if its all possible. San Fran ranks toward the bottom in pass defense allowing 257 yards/game...

Also, a regular segment on our podcast is to pick the fantasy player - of the not-so-obvious start variety - we think will have a better than normal game and that fantasy players should consider taking a closer look at. I go deep with my pick, while Rob Warner heads out west for a rookie wide out...


My call is Kevin Boss, who you can read more about in my Deep League Pickups article this week. In short, Boss has had previous success against an Eagles defense (at least 69 yards and a touchdown in two of the last three matchups). The weather could be a bit dicey Sunday night, but Boss is a sneaky TE play this week.


Rob Warner...Michael Crabtree - The rookie WR faces an Arizona defense that is allowing 260 yards/game. With Vernon Davis as the main concern for opposing defensive coordinators, Crabtree should be able to exploit the Arizona secondary. He makes for a solid WR3 this week and should be able to approach 75 yards. The 49ers use a lot of double tight end sets in the red zone which could limit his scoring ability but in a game that I expect the 49ers will have to throw to keep up with an explosive Cardinal offense, the emerging rookie should produce solid fantasy numbers in week 14.

We'll skip the normal intro and get right into the picks, which of course are for informational purposes only...

Last week: 13-5 straight*, 9-9 spread*

Overall (thru Week 12): 133-63 straight; 103-92-1 spread

* includes going 2-0 in college games

Pittsburgh 27 CLEVELAND 20 (+10): Still stunned about the Raiders win over the Steel Curtain last week. For me, it is easily the most baffling loss of the season, especially with the Steelers on a then 3-game losing streak, their west coast opponent playing at 1pm on the other side of the country and the opponent was in fact the Raiders. Now the Steelers maybe without one of their emotional leaders against their division rival. Still...I mean, come on! How on earth can the Big Ben led squad lose this one after all that has gone on??? Well...the weather could hurt the passing game or cause an extra bobble or two. Also, the Raiders confirmed last week that the Steelers can be passed on and Brady Quinn has been surprisingly effective lately (7 TD, zero INT in last three games) for the Browns. Start your Steelers per usual - perhaps even the Browns Jerome Harrison or Mohammed Massaquoi as low-end options in deep leagues - but check those forecasts before committing any of your passing game players.

As a reminder, email any questions, be it about lineup decisions, trades or free agent pickups to ben.standig@fftoolbox.com and I will do my best to respond before the start of Sunday's action or your money back...