Best Bets for Week 12 of the NFL season

Who will win, step up and get beat down in Week 12 of the NFL season, Turkey Day edition...

These fantasy musings do not reflect the opinion of FFToolbox.com, but just a solo fantasy writer with too much time on his hands because he quit working on the Seinfeld reunion...

Last week: 12-4 straight, 8-8 spread

Overall (thru Week 11): 108-54 straight; 85-76-1 spread

Home team in CAPS

Green Bay 34 (-10.5) DETROIT 13: No Matthew Stafford, no Calvin Johnson equals beyond no chance and that is the fate the Lions apparently will face on Thursday. Without those weapons, you can safely avoid any and all Lions fantasy players this week, including Kevin Smith...The Packers suffered two serious injuries on defense, but all hope is not lost, according to Andy Benoit with the NY Times Fifth Down Blog. As long as the they can keep Aaron Rodgers in one piece, expect the Packers to make the playoffs and become a dangerous out because of the offense, but not sure they o-line can dominate enough to put them over the top. Against the Lions, none of that matters so start all your normal Packers plus TE Jermichael Finley, the defense and WR James Jones in deep leagues.

DALLAS 27 (-13.5) Oakland 13: There is no logical reason to think the Cowboys will score 27 points after watching them eke out a meager 14 points over the last two games. At the same time, it is hard to understand why this talented unit can't post a big number in general, let alone against the Raiders 24th ranked defense. With all that said, Marion Barber is the one "safe" fantasy play this week. On paper, you can use all of usual Cowboys, if you trust them.

NY Giants 26 DENVER 21 (+7): The Giants offense came alive last week and they should churn up yards on the ground against a Broncos defense that has been run over during their four game slide. Brandon Jacobs could have even more value if Ahmad Bradshaw misses the game, but red zone issues will have Lawrence Tynes kicking four field goals...It is looking better for Kyle Orton to start this week, but that may not be enough to use any of the Broncos this week. Hard to sit Brandon Marshall and this might be the week Tony Scheffler gets some production, but the entire Broncos team is nearly radioactive until they put up a better showing.

These are my personal picks each week for my various (cough, cough) pools

Week 12 - Dallas (As stated above, it is hard to know what to make of the Cowboys, but on a short week and coming off a big win, hard to see Oakland winning. San Diego is my fallback)

Week 11 - Jacksonville (This is my least confident call in weeks, but I'll take my chances against a team (Buffalo) with a new coach and new QB. For the faint of heart, Minnesota, New Orleans and Pittsburgh are fine if you can still use them)

Week 10 - Minnesota (Obviously taking the Purple People Eaters against the toothless Lions isn't a tough call. Not sure I have the guts to pick the Dolphins. For those who don't mind going on the road, take the Saints)

Week 9 - Atlanta (A very sketchy week. Falcons matchup not ideal, playing a top-5 defense and coming off a bye, but better than taking Seahawks, Jaguars or Packers on the road)

Week 8 - Chicago (Colts are good if available. Chargers are ok, but hard to trust the Bolts and it is a division game)

Week 7 - Indianapolis (the Colts and Pats are the only worthy options this week, even with the road and neutral sites)

Week 6 - Green Bay (Jacksonville against the Rams is the gutsier call, but another week of strong options)

Week 5 - Philadelphia (though there are waaaaaay to many good options this week so everyone "should" advance)

Week 4 - San Francisco (Chicago is a close second)

Week 3 - Baltimore

Week 2 - Washington, Green Bay (and one pool goes by the wayside)

Week 1 - New Orleans, Baltimore