NFL Picks and Fantasy Angles - Week 11

Who will win, step up and get beat down in Week 11 of the NFL season...

These game predictions do not reflect the opinion of FFToolbox.com but just a solo fantasy writer who looooved kast night's episode of "Modern Family", but still says "Community" is best comedy on TV ...As a reminder, email any questions, be it about lineup fantasy decisions, trades, strategy or free agents, to podcast@fftoolbox.com or send tweets to @benstandig and I will respond before the start of Sunday's action. Also do not forget to check out the weekly FFToolbox.com podcast - hosted by yours truly - every week or anytime via ITunes.

***UPDATE - Due to the holiday week, the only podcast will be Monday afternoon, but email and tweet any questions throughout the week.

Home Team in CAPS

Last week: Straight (7-6), Spread (7-6); Overall: Straight (83-60); Spread (79-61-3)

MIAMI 20 (-1.5) Chicago 17: Call my crazy, but I am a little excited for the Tyler Thigpen era, however long it lasts. As much as we remember our fav fantasy draft picks, the diamonds in the rough we uncover also make for great chatter and Thigpen was one for me around this time of year when he played on the 2008 Dolphins. On a short week he does not make for a good play and there is a reason he was the Dolphins third-string passer, but I also can't forget how productive he has been, especially with a pretty nice closing schedule...Fantasy Angle - Ricky Williams was more productive than Ronnie Brown a week ago and my hunch is this is the beginning of a trend. Neither runner is receiving enough touches to be more than a flex or low-end RB2 most weeks, but I say they are close to even down the stretch with a nod to William's upside.

PITTSBURGH 27 Oakland 21 (+7): The initial gut reaction was to give the points, but the Steelers inability to contain a mediocre Patriots pass rush last week continues to concern. If we look back at the season and wonder what happened to Pittsburgh, losing starting LT Max Starks after week nine will be a good place to begin...Fantasy Angle - Three straight weeks with 4.5 or better yards per carry for Rashard Mendenhall, but hasn't been able to reach triple digits since week 3. That changes against the Raiders xxth ranked run defense, even while running behind the Steelers cobbled together offensive line.

NY JETS 31 (-7) Houston 22: Remember how after week two everyone was ready to pen the Texans into the playoffs. Now with a 4-5 record and losses in four of their last five games - including last week's Hail Mary crusher against the Jaguars - the talk is about whether the Houston's owner will be looking for a new coach thiis year. Based on the remaining schedule combined with the body work, let's just say Gary Kubiak shouldn't be sending out his laundry late in December...Fantasy Angle - Santonio Holmes has picked up his stats over the past two weeks and gets another shaky secondary (and that is being kind in this case) to exploit. For perhaps the first time since he returned from suspension I say Holmes is a top-20 receiver play in a given week.

Baltimore 34 (-12) CAROLINA 10: My suggestion to Panthers fans this week is to shopping from 1-4pm on Sunday and take the family with you. Ray Lewis and the Ravens defense are set to face your offense which will be led by a QB (Brian St. Pierre) who was literally just signed 10 seconds ago. The horror. Think of the children...Fantasy Angle - While starting all your Ravens is a good way to go, take pause with Joe Flacco. The Panthers defense ranks among the top-7 in allowing fantasy points to quarterbacks and the Ravens could turn to the running game once they take a quick early lead.

TENNESSEE 31 (-7) Washington 20: No truth to the rumor that Michael Vick just scored another touchdown against the Redskins dead last defense, but the Titans won't need the help...Fantasy Angle - Randy Moss was a factor only as a decoy in his Titans debut, but he finds the end zone this week. The Redskins pouros secondary is expected to be without their top corner Carlos Rogers, their one consistent cover man and all of that is good enough to have me go out on a risky limb and pick Moss as my Sleeper of the Week.

DALLAS 31 Detroit 27 (+6.5): Jason Garrett wins his second game in a row. That means despite their epic collpase the Cowboys will no longer be in the hunt for the top pick in the 2011 NFL Draft and Bill Cowher and Jon Gruden are further away from being the head coach in Big D... Fantasy Angle - Seeing Felix Jones go off last week lilely annoyed many a fantasy owner since the Cowboys runner was surely planted on many a bench. Do not stay in that rut with the Cowboys facing a Lions defense that made Fred Jackson look like Thurman Thomas last week.

Green Bay 37 (-3) MINNESOTA 31: Easily my favorite angle of late on the Aaron Rodgers-Brett Favre relationship is the idea that the Packers current QB should start dating Jen Sterger. For this week, all the talk after the game will be about how the Packers used their bye week to dial up a staggering attack against the Vikings defense...Fantasy Angle - Donald Driver looks to be a game-time decision with a quad injury that kept him out of week 9. If the veteran sits again, James Jones vaults into the top-20 receiver plays for the week. If Driver is out longer, Jones will be a candidate for random breakout star over the second half.

CINCINNATI 24 Buffalo 19 (+6): With the Bills finally getting into the win column, it is now time for the 2-7 Bengals to get theirs and end a 3-game losing streak...Fantasy Angle - Even if they find a way to win, the Bengals season has slipped away and their running game along with it. Cedric Benson has becoming increasingly less effective over the last four weeks – 3.01 yards on his last 72 carries. At some point there will be no reason to keep playing him over the sprier Bernard Scott. Consider him a sign and hold in deeper leagues. Marvin Lewis, consider letting Benson rest up.

JACKSONVILLE 28 (-1.5) Cleveland 23: Fantasy Angle - Don't call it a comeback, but David Garrard has been en fuego the last two games with six touchdowns, 602 yards and no interceptions. No reason to see the hot streak ending against the Browns and the Jags QB is worthy of a start this week.

KANSAS CITY 27 Arizona 20 (+8.5): Boo to Chiefs coach Todd Haley for snubbing Josh McDaniels at the post-game hand shake after the Broncos took them out behind the woodshed. Can't stand the guys who have so much attitude and bravado when they win, but act then do not man up when they lose, even if it is to an equally cocky opponent...Fantasy Angle - Look for the Chiefs to get back to the running ways against the Cardinals 28th rush defense, so both Jamaal Charles and Thomas Jones are solid options, even if the age is starting to show in the latter's production. Cardinals QB Derek Anderson throws a late touchdown pass for the backdoor cover.

NEW ORLEANS 31 (-12) Seattle 17: It has taken me all season to buy the Saints as a legitimate contender in what was looking like a classic Super Bowl hangover campaign, but they have shown more spark and now are getting healthier coming out of their bye week. Their pass defense has been sneakily good, ranking tops in the NFL, allowing only 166 yards per game...Fantasy Angle - Reggie Bush is expected to make his return to the field this week. If you are in a bind than do what you have to do, but overall I am inclned to let him sit a week and see what he looks like and how the Saints backfield touches are doled out. If Pierre Thomas remains out, then Bush should be the top producer if health is a non-factor.

Atlanta 23 ST. LOUIS 21 (+3): Sam Bradford hurts the Falcons by directing some lengthy early drives, but Michael Turner cranks it up as the game moves on and Matt Bryant nets four field goals in the Falcons win...Fantasy Angle - The Falcons defense has been middle of the pack this season, but they are looking a worthy risk during weeks 14-15 with Carolina and Seattle on the schedule.

SAN FRANCISCO 20 (-3) Tampa Bay 13: The Niners grind out the win and improve to 3-0 with Troy Smith under center. Hope Alex Smith has found a vorite spot on the sideline since he'll be there for a while...Fantasy Angle - Frank Gore left, Frank Gore right, Frank Gore for 150+ yards and two touchdowns against the Bucs 31st ranked run defense

NEW ENGLAND 31 Indianapolis 28 (+3.5): Taking the hook as this matchup between the perpetual contenders likely comes down to the final possession. Overall have been more impressed with the Pats this season so there you go...Fantasy Angle - Clearly all eyes will be on Tom Brady and Peyton Manning - and rightfully so - but ultimately the team that keeps the ball away from the other guy will have the best chance of winning. Neither ground game is rock solid, but both defenses are in the bottom-10 in terms of fantasy points allowed to running backs and the Colts are particulary brutal. With more injury uncertainty on their side, I'll go with the Pats top running option and give the nod to the BenJarvus Green-Ellis.over Danny Woodhead. Since he gets the goal line looks, the Law Firm is a solid, decent RB2 option with minimal downside in what should be a high-scoring game.

PHILADELPHIA 22 NY Giants 21 (+3): The two best teams in the NFC end up playing more of a classic NFC East slugfest instead of displaying their offensive prowess, but it will be entertaining all the same...Fantasy Angle - Obviously Michael Vick is a must-start going forward and it would be foolhardy to doubt him no matter the scenario, but the Giants are allowing the sixth fewest fantasy points to QBs this season.

SAN DIEGO 34 (-10) Denver 23: The Broncos did to the Chiefs last week what the Raiders did them earlier in the year by putting a whooping on their AFC West rival. Philip Rivers and crew will not get that medievil, but they will have an easy time of it...Fantasy Angle - If Ryan Mathews is sidelined, Mike Tolbert is a serious play this week as the Chargers should score plenty and run often in the second half.

Survivor Picks: These are my personal picks each week for my various (cough, cough) pools...well, they were before Wade Phillips and Jay Cutler ended my fun. Oh well, it was a fun two-year run of winning while it lasted. So for now, will just list my fav call without limitations...
***the only rule that I follow almost religiously involves taking home teams. Most of the upsets occur when the favorite goes on the road (note many folks lost when they took Bengals, Chargers or Saints away from home). So other than in scenarios where I have no other options (or say the Colts or Ravens are at the Rams or Bills), I am going with the home crowd...

Week 11 - Baltimore; this goes against my theory of not using road teams, but come on, can't see how the Ravens lose. Not a great week for options, San Diego and Tennessee are also middling choices....Week 10: Tampa Bay...Week 9 – Green Bay Week 8 – Kansas City Week 7 – Baltimore, Week 6 – Chicago, Week 5 – Indianapolis, Week 4 – Green Bay, Week 3 - New England, Week 2 – Dallas, San Diego, Week 1 - Tennessee, NY Giants