Best Bets for NFL Championship Games...and Super Bowl

Who will win, step up and get beat down during the NFL's Championship Weekend....

As always, these fantasy musings do not reflect the opinion of FFToolbox.com, but just a solo fantasy writer with too much time on his hands now that he has stopped licking his wounds after a rough start to the playoff prognosticating. ...and of course, the picks are for informational purposes only...

Also, note that the FFToolbox.com podcast will be back on February 2nd, previewing the Super Bowl and discussing the latest NFL news and rumors as they pertain to the fantasy world. Down the line we will have shows previewing the Super Bowl and breaking down NFL Free Agency, the combine and NFL Draft.

Last week: 1-3 straight, 2-2 spread

Overall (thru Week 14): 175-96 straight; 134-133-4 spread

INDIANAPOLIS 20 NY Jets 13 (+8.5): Based on what the Colts have done this year - undefeated in every game they "tried" to win, 11-5-1 against the spread - it is hard to pick against the, especially at home. Nobody is a better tactical assassin than Peyton Manning and their defense is vastly underrated. And yet...the Jets keep games tight. Their defense will force the Colts into long drives, something Manning does anyway, and the clock will run and run. Shonn Greene and Thomas Jones will do that as well when the Jets are on offense, but the Colts lack of a ground game makes their offense one-dimensional. In the end, the Jets will not have the same overall amount of success they have had the past two weeks as Manning grinds it out with TD passes to Austin Collie and Dallas Clark, Dwight Freeney sacks Mark Sanchez at least once and the Colts survive.

NEW ORLEANS 31 (-3) Minnesota 27: After thinking about siding with the Vikes running game and pass rush earlier this week, the time has come to get on the Saints bandwagon. Yes, Adrian Peterson has his best game in weeks and Jared Allen will harass Drew Brees at times. And yet...the home crowd will make the difference. Brett Favre has avoided the mistakes that have plagued him in the latter stages of his career, but a few more pop up as the noise takes away the split second advantage an offense normally enjoys. Drew Brees and Sean Payton will come up with ways to expose rookie MLB Jasper Brinkley in the passing game, Reggie Bush makes at one jaw-dropping play and Jabari Greer does his best Darrelle Revis impression on Sidney Rice.

*****SUPER BOWL pick

INDIANAPOLIS 31 (-4.5) New Orleans 23: The East Coast snow has been brutal and caused havoc with my world, but not my mind. Colts simply have too much on both sides of the ball compared to the Saints. Unless Reggie Bush or someone else on special teams makes 2-3 big plays, I can't see the Saints coming out on top...

Fun Props: Austin Collie will score...more points in 2H than 1H...Joseph Addai's longest run over 11.5 yards...Peyton Manning to throw a TD in 2Q...shortest TD over 1.5 yards