Best Bets for Week 12 of the NFL season - Friday Update

Who will win, step up and get beat down in Week 12 of the NFL season, Post Turkey Day edition...

These fantasy musings do not reflect the opinion of FFToolbox.com, but just a solo fantasy writer with too much time on his hands because he quit working on the Seinfeld reunion...

Last week: 12-4 straight, 8-8 spread

Overall (thru Week 11): 108-54 straight; 85-76-1 spread

This Week: Nice start, sweeping the Thanksgiving Day lines and having a weekly Survivor Pool winner already...As for the remaining game, I'm still in a Tryptophan coma, so excuse the brevity...To make up for it, e-mail any lineup, trade, free agent, "Lost" or "which babe is hotter" questions to ben.standig@fftoolbox.com this weekend and I will respond before the start of Sunday's action.

Home team in CAPS

Green Bay 34 (-10.5) DETROIT 13: No Matthew Stafford, no Calvin Johnson equals beyond any chance and that is the fate the Lions apparently will face on Thursday. Without those weapons, you can safely avoid any and all Lions fantasy players this week, including Kevin Smith...The Packers suffered two serious injuries on defense, but all hope is not lost, according to Andy Benoit with the NY Times Fifth Down Blog. As long as they can keep Aaron Rodgers in one piece, expect the Packers to make the playoffs and become a dangerous out because of the offense, but not sure they o-line can dominate enough to put them over the top. Against the Lions, none of that matters so start all your normal Packers plus TE Jermichael Finley, the defense and WR James Jones in deep leagues.

DALLAS 27 (-13.5) Oakland 13: There is no logical reason to think the Cowboys will score 27 points after watching them eke out a meager 14 points over the last two games. At the same time, it is hard to understand why this talented unit can't post a big number in general, let alone against the Raiders 24th ranked defense. With all that said, Marion Barber is the one "safe" fantasy play this week. On paper, you can use all of usual Cowboys, if you trust them.

NY Giants 26 DENVER 21 (+7): The Giants offense came alive last week and they should churn up yards on the ground against a Broncos defense that has been run over during their four game slide. Brandon Jacobs could have even more value if Ahmad Bradshaw misses the game, but red zone issues will have Lawrence Tynes kicking four field goals...It is looking better for Kyle Orton to start this week, but that may not be enough to use any of the Broncos this week. Hard to sit Brandon Marshall and this might be the week Tony Scheffler gets some production, but the entire Broncos team is nearly radioactive until they put up a better showing.

Indianapolis 28 HOUSTON 27 (+3.5): This is what happens in this series; the Texans hang tough, but the Colts prevail. Kevin Walter shines for the Texans; Dallas Clark does likewise for the Colts.

CINCINNATI 34 (-14) Cleveland 14: Maybe this is just my way of rationalizing why I left the Packers defense on my bench this week for the Bengals, but expect a peeved and angry Marvin Lewis/Mike Zimmer coached unit to squash Brady Quinn and Crew. Three turnovers, five sacks and a score sounds about right, while Chad Ochocinco find the end zone at the end of one his eight receptions...While most of it comes in the second half with the game out reach, Chris Jennings gets 15 touches for 70 yards and continues to earn a larger role in the Browns backfield.

MINNESOTA 30 (-10.5) Chicago 17: Adrian Peterson was, for him, quiet last week. This week, the yards may not overwhelm the Bears, but the scores will, two to be precise...The good news for Jay Cutler owners; he will have to throw a lot in this one. Sadly. The number of scoring passes (two) will equal the number of picks.

PHILADELPHIA 26 (-9) Washington 13: DeSean Jackson and LeSean McCoy score from outside the red zone, while David Akers stays busy...Mike "the Human Turnstile" Williams is expected to see extensive action along the Redskins offensive line. This is what you call a negative indicator. Rock Cartwright is about the burgundy and gold member I would consider using the week in standard leagues.

***Sunday AM update: Albert Haynesworth (ankle) is going to be inactive, making the Eagles players even more attractive. I know the Skins did well without the big fella last week, but doubting they can come up with that type effort again and the pass rush was non-existent in Week 11.

BUFFALO 20 (+3) Miami 16: I am a believer that a key loss can actually galvanize a team and have them play at max effort the following week, similar to what the Dolphins did in Week 11 without Ronnie Brown. However, when they have to suck it up the subsequent week, that extra level of intensity is hard to reach, hence why I take the Bills in this one.

Arizona 24 (+3) TENNESSEE 23: Do not consider this me hoping off the Titans bandwagon, one I have been touting for weeks, but instead a nod towards the Cardinals road success. If Kurt Warner does not play because of his latest head injury, that changes all, but Anquan Boldin scores twice to offset Chris Johnson's 155 total yards and touchdown.

Seattle 28 (-3.5) ST. LOUIS 17: As I type this, we know Marc Bulger will not play for the Rams, Kyle Boller will and Steven Jackson missed his third consecutive day of practice. Even the Seahawks can't blow that kind of scenario, whether Julius Jones plays or not.

ATLANTA 27 TAMPA BAY 17 (+12): Hard to get behind the Bucs, but the Falcons offense is not clicking. Sadly just learned this is the game I will be stuck watching. Sigh.

Carolina 20 (+3) NY JETS 16: Mark Sanchez is the answer to the question "which turnover-plagued QB will struggle the most in Week 12?" The rook easily handles the vet 4-2, with the Panthers taking just enough advantage for the road win.

SAN FRANCISCO 24 Jacksonville 21 (+3.5): The trip out west cools off the Jags, as the Niners keep MJD (75 yards, TD) in check, while exploiting the Jacksonville secondary with big days for Michael Crabtree and Vernon Davis. Regardless, Mike Sims-Walker remains beastly.

SAN DIEGO 34 (-13.5) Kansas City 23: Philip Rivers-to-Antonio Gates. Nuff said...on the other side, doesn't a Chris Chambers revenge game just feel right?

Pittsburgh 20 BALTIMORE 17: This game will remind me to be thankful for Jetblue's DirecTV option since I will be flying back home during the game. That is also good news for my fellow passengers as I will not be pacing the aisles wondering if Hines Ward is rockin and rollin and what not for my fantasy squad...No line yet on this because of the uncertainty over Big Ben's head. This is a must game for both so clearly his status changes the outcome.

***Sunday AM Update: Roethlisberger is out. The Steelers will do their best to keep Dennis Dixon out of those troublesome 3rd-and-long scenarios against the Ravens pass rush, but hard to predict the young QB making enough positive plays in his first start for the win. The defensive slugfest goes the way of Ray Lewis and company. BALTIMORE 17 Pittsburgh 10 (+7).

New England 38 (+3) NEW ORLEANS 27: The Pats remain in pissed off mode and take it out on the undefeated Saints.

Survivor Picks: These are my personal picks each week for my various (cough, cough) pools

Week 12 - Dallas (As stated above, it is hard to know what to make of the Cowboys, but on a short week and coming off a big win, hard to see Oakland winning. San Diego is my fallback)

Week 11 - Jacksonville (This is my least confident call in weeks, but I'll take my chances against a team (Buffalo) with a new coach and new QB. For the faint of heart, Minnesota, New Orleans and Pittsburgh are fine if you can still use them)

Week 10 - Minnesota (Obviously taking the Purple People Eaters against the toothless Lions isn't a tough call. Not sure I have the guts to pick the Dolphins. For those who don't mind going on the road, take the Saints)

Week 9 - Atlanta (A very sketchy week. Falcons matchup not ideal, playing a top-5 defense and coming off a bye, but better than taking Seahawks, Jaguars or Packers on the road)

Week 8 - Chicago (Colts are good if available. Chargers are ok, but hard to trust the Bolts and it is a division game)

Week 7 - Indianapolis (the Colts and Pats are the only worthy options this week, even with the road and neutral sites)

Week 6 - Green Bay (Jacksonville against the Rams is the gutsier call, but another week of strong options)

Week 5 - Philadelphia (though there are waaaaaay to many good options this week so everyone "should" advance)

Week 4 - San Francisco (Chicago is a close second)

Week 3 - Baltimore

Week 2 - Washington, Green Bay (and one pool goes by the wayside)

Week 1 - New Orleans, Baltimore