Strategy Session - making sense of trade deadline and closing weeks of the fantasy season

This week's podcast, which focused on the commonly used Week 10 fantasy trade deadline and the best/worst player and team matchups in the pivotal weeks 14-16, was so chock full of info that it ran well beyond regulation time. While I assume (sorry, clearing my throat) everyone will listen to the show in its entirety via ITunes, I decided to provide a cliff notes version of the episode. The take below is largely my own, but you can hear additional insight from FFToolbox.com writers Rob Warner and Chris Weeks on the podcast.

Since the trade deadline clock is ticking, let's not waste time on me writing some detailed, pithy intro, especially since I have not yet had my morning coffee. That is not a good scene for anyone involved...In general, please note that we are not focusing on weekly studs like Peyton Manning, Chris Johnson and Randy Moss, but instead on those mix and match options or even some players that have been solid, but face a daunting schedule in the final weeks. While matchups cannot dictate exactly how you set your lineup, they can help determine which side of the fence you land on a certain player and these notes should provide a look forward into some of the more promising or challenging decisions that lie ahead for fantasy owners. How one handles their trade deadline planning could make the difference between that light at the end of the fantasy tunnel being the shine coming off your soon-to-be won trophy or the fast moving train running straight at your squad.

Best Team schedules: Cardinals, Bengals, Seahawks - No team has a better across the board schedule the rest of the way then the Cardinals, who have a top-5 schedule at QB, RB, WR, TE, K and defense according to the FFToolbox Strength of Schedule guide, my favorite tool on the site by the way. Obviously Larry Fitzgerald is a must have, but virtually all of their starters (outside of TE Ben Patrick) are worth acquiring and starting most weeks.

Worst Team schedules: Eagles, Bucs, Giants - The trusty strength of schedule meter has the Giants RB and WR schedules ranked 31st the rest of the way with Eli Manning's SOS coming in at 27th among quarterbacks. Despite their recent struggles, the Giants clearly have talented players on offense and I expect Tom Coughlin to get them back on the right track in terms of NFL wins and losses. However, fantasy expectations should be tamped down based on their schedule and with a certain amount of uncertainty going forward. Don't do anything drastic, but considering dealing your Giants starters or start looking for more promising trade options. Now.

Quarterback

Good: Kurt Warner - Ok, raise your hand if you thought this former league MVP would still be upright by Week 10...put your hand down Brenda. I am talking to the non-believers, the ones who saw a 38-year old with a history of injuries and questioned whether they should get target Warner in their fantasy draft and hope for a repeat of his inspired 2008 season. Though Warner has not performed at a Pro Bowl level, he has been a solid, low-end QB1 play, ranking 11th in PPG average among QB's. But that was then; the future, one that for now does not involve a walker, looks quite promising for the Cards QB. The schedule highlights: Week 15, at the Lions, who are currently 31st against the pass and have allowed the second most TD passes. That is followed by the Rams, Warner's former team, who sit currently 22nd against the pass. Oh, Warner owners, one last thing. Warner's present health not withstanding, do not forget to add Matt Leinart as a handcuff down the stretch. (This goes for virtually any of your stud players as having the backup will let you sleep better at night in a post-trade deadline world)

Other passers: Week nine struggles aside, Joe Flacco remains a rotational fantasy option with QB1 potential (Week 14 - LIons; Week 16 - Bears) in the right matchups...Already worthy of a roster spot, now Alex Smith is making a claim to be a strong QB2 or spot starter. Not many passers will have a better stretch of games (Week 13 - @ Seahawks; Week 14 - Cardinals, 29th vs. the pass; Week 16 - Lions) with which to close out the season...Purely for Golden Domer lovers and those scared to death to have only Jake Delhomme or Trent Edwards as their backup QB; Brady Quinn faces the Chiefs on the road in Week 15 and hosts the Raiders in Week 16. Yes, take that final recommendation with a dumpster sized grain of salt amount.

Bad: Matt Ryan - Of the preseason top 10-12 QB's, the one that passer that currently is not sniffing that tier now is Ryan, the Falcons wunderkind second-year star. We can debate Ryan's real life value to the Falcons franchise in another forum, but fantasy owners have not been pleased of late. Over his last four starts, Ryan has thrown for less than 200 yards three times while totaling six TDP and eight INT in that overall stretch. That is too large of a sampling too simply dismiss as a minor blip and gives legit concern to his fantasy owners, who will therefore be none to pleased with the reigning Rookie of the Year's closing schedule; during week's 13-16, the Falcons play the Eagles, Saints, @ Jets, Bills, all of whom currently sit among the top half of NFL defenses against the pass. (But Ben, three of those games are at home. Surely that has to be good news for Matty Ice, right?). Ryan has thrown eight of his 13 touchdowns in his four home games, but is averaging 61 yards less per game (192) than generated in his four starts away from the Georgia Dome.

Other passers: Several big name passers (Peyton Manning, Tom Brady, Tony Romo) have among the worst statistical matchups the rest of the way, but should remain entrenched in your lineup. On the other hand, Kyle Orton's early season fantasy success is unlikely to be duplicated down the stretch with three top-13 pass defenses (@ Colts, Raiders, @ Eagles) to face in Weeks 14-16.

Running Back

Good: Pierre Thomas - The Saints backfield has been a confounding and confusing scenario for fantasy owners this year, with the emergence of Mike Bell and the almost shunning of Reggie Bush. Also Pierre Thomas mostly failed to live up to his early draft status due to early injuries and the surprising play of Bell, but appears to have re-taken over the reins as the top dog with 181 total yards and three touchdowns the last two weeks (In comparison, Bell had only five carries for 17 yards last week). Not only do I expect that trend to continue, but the schedule sets up nicely for the Saints lead runner the rest of the way; two games vs. the Bucs 30th ranked run defense, including in the climatic Week 16, plus matchups with the Rams (27th) and Falcons (24th). As my colleague Rob Warner stated on the podcast, Thomas may be the one attainable RB1/2 option out there because of the first half uncertainty, but the schedule and that Saints offense make with him pursuing.

Other runners: The return of Sammy Morris is the "x" factor in the Patriots backfield, but Laurence Maroney has been a solid producer since getting the bulk of the touches of late. Now check out the teams he will be running against in weeks 14-16; Panthers (23rd), @ Bills (32nd), Jaguars (22nd). The quantity of carries likely keeps Maroney out of becoming a true RB2 each week, but the lack of quality opponents in the closing games should more than make up for it.

Bad: Ryan Grant - Solid, not spectacular is a perfect way to describe Grant's 2009 season. In eight games, Grant has failed to reach double digit scoring only once in standard scoring leagues, but only scored over 15 points once this season with five games in the 10-12 point range. Considering there is no real threat in the wings to steal carries, Grant may be able to continue squeeze out similar numbers, but the odds are stacked against him from providing fantasy owners with anything more based on the Packers closing schedule. Over weeks 11-16, Grant faces the Niners (Week 11, 4th ranked rush defense), Ravens (Week 13, 7th), Steelers (Week 15, 1st) and Seahawks (Week 16, 11th). Even the two promising weeks (Week 12 @ Lions, Week 14 @ Bears) are on the road against division foes. Considering the Week 15 matchup against the frightening Steel Curtain defense makes Grant almost unusable, it makes sense to troll the Packers starting RB out in trade talks to see if you can snag a comparable RB with a much, much better schedule.

Other runners: DeAngelo Williams dominated the second half of the 2008 fantasy season and has been on fire over the last few weeks, making him virtually schedule proof. The same however cannot be said for his tag-team partner Jonathan Stewart, who is looking no better than a spot-flex play with the Panthers playing @ Jets (Week 12), @ Pats (14), Vikings (15) and @ Giants (16) to close the season.

Wide Receiver

Good: Kevin Walter - There is little to tout about Walter's first half, but his targets likely will rise with the absence of TE Owen Daniels. Those extra targets should be put to good use in Weeks 13-16 with games at the Jaguars (21st against the pass), Seahawks (17th), Rams (20th) and Dolphins (29th). That schedule also makes Texans third receiver and likely free agent Jacoby Jones worth a look in deeper leagues.

Other catchers: It has been easier to predict what will happen on "Lost" than figure out which Saints wide receiver other than Marques Colston is the one to use each week. The wealth will likely continued to be spread, but Robert Meachem may be on the verge of become a more viable WR3 weekly option with seven receptions for 145 yards and a score over the last two weeks. The burner is posting a sizzling 22.8 yards per grab and that could mean a big pay day with closing games against the Rams (Week 11, 20th against the pass), Bucs (Weeks 12 and 16 against a unit that has allowed the third most TDP) and Falcons (28th).

Bad: Steve Smith/Hakeem Nicks/Mario Manningham: Bad enough the Giants enter their bye week on a four-game losing streak, but their struggling aerial attack faces a who's who of top pass defenses the rest of the way. In Weeks 12-16, the Giants are @ Broncos (8th against the pass), Cowboys, Eagles (14th), @ Redskins (1st) and @ Panthers (6th). Smith should catch enough passes to remain more than viable in PPR leagues, but expect decreased yardage and touchdown numbers across the board.

Other catchers: Already talked about why Matt Ryan could struggle the rest of the way and obviously that effects his star receiver Roddy White, who has been more "blah" then "yea!" most weeks this season. When you look inside White's 40-570-6 numbers through eight games, one notes that most of production (318 yards, three TDs) came in only two games. White did not generate more than 57 yards and the other six games. Playing against those top passing defenses during fantasy crunch time does not seem like a cure-all.

Tight End

Good: Vernon Davis - Who would have guessed that the insertion of Alex Smith into the Niners lineup would actually be a good thing for their passing game. Huh. One person might have been Davis, who clearly has great chemistry with Smith, having racked up four touchdowns over 10 quarters since the Niners made the QB change and he hauled in 10 passes for 102 yards last week alone. Among tight ends, Davis has a top-5 schedule going forward, with tasty games against the Jags (Week 12), @ Seahawks (13), Cardinals (14), @ Eagles (15) and Lions (16) so there is no reason to think the former Maryland Terrapin's production will slow down anytime soon.

Bad: Kellen Winslow - The simple truth is that unless you drafted say Brent Celek or Heath Miller as a backup and thus have two capable tight ends on your roster, there is almost no reason to sit your fantasy starter due to the lack of free agent options available. However, one top level talent that teams should consider unloading before the trading deadline is Winslow, who faces the 31st toughest schedule among TE's the rest of the way. I know Josh Freeman just posted nice numbers in his first start, but I won't be comfortable with him throwing to any fantasy player until we see how he does on the road (starting this week at the Dolphins) and how opposing teams defense the rook now that there actual game film to study. If you can move Winslow for a comparable TE option that has a more known quantity at QB throwing him the ball like the aforementioned Miller or Visanthe Shiancoe, make the deal.

Defense:

Good: Bengals - While the real life Bengals defense has garnered attention from football pundits with the inspired play so far, the fantasy world has not quite taken note, largely to the consistent unit not truly having a breakout performance. That all could change starting in Week 11 when the Bengals play on the road at the Raiders followed by back-to-back home games against the lowly Browns and Lions. Tack on a Week 16 tilt against the Chiefs and the Bengals are a virtual one-stop fantasy defense shop going forward.

Other defenses: No defense has a better Week 15-16 schedule than the Cardinals, with a road game at the Lions followed by a home tilt against the Rams. Nuff said... For those that still have work to do before those late matchups can become relevant, consider the Dolphins. Over the next three weeks they face Josh Freeman, Jake Delhomme and Trent Edwards...if you plan on going with a "defense of the week" strategy, also note the Titans (Week 14 vs. Rams, the first of three straight home games) and the Texans (Week 15 @ Rams, Week 16 vs. Chad Henne).

Bad: Panthers - Brutal early on, the Panthers defense has rebounded with solid to strong outings in three of their past four games, but now will be without star LB Thomas Davis the rest of the way due to an ACL injury. Factor in their Week 14-16 opponents (Patriots, Vikings, Giants) and the Panthers D is not likely to be long for your roster.

*** Thursday Night Pick - San Francisco 20 (-3) Chicago 16