FFToolbox Blog: Ben's Brain Connection Failure

Week 3 - NFL and Survivor Picks

Who will win, step up and get beat down in Week 3 of the NFL season...

These game predictions do not reflect the opinion of FFToolbox.com but just a solo fantasy writer who has spent way too much time this week debating whether to pickup Kevin Ogletree or start Eric Decker with Dez Bryant iffy for Monday night...As a reminder, email any questions, be it about lineup fantasy decisions, trades, strategy or free agents, to podcast@fftoolbox.com or send tweets to @benstandig. Also download the weekly FFToolbox.com podcast - hosted by yours truly with guests from the Rotoworld, CBS Sports, NY Times and the National Football Post. Scheduled for Tuesday's (7pm) and Thursday's (8pm). or anytime via ITunes and that's where you will find this week's fantasy angles...

Home Team in CAPS

CINCINNATI 20 (-2) San Francisco 16 - So little faith in Alex Smith I'm giving points with a rookie QB

New England 34 (-8) BUFFALO 24 - Close early, Tom Brady, Rob Gronkowski and my fantasy sleeper of the week BenJarvus Green-Ellis close it late

NEW ORLEANS 31 (-3.5) Houston 27 - Never go against Drew Brees in a shootout at home

PHILADELPHIA 27 (-9) NY Giants 17 - Too many points for a division rivalry game, but the Giants don't have enough healthy weapons to keep up

Miami 23 (+1.5) CLEVELAND 21 - Dolphins win this game or they could have a new coach by Monday

TENNESSEE 27 (-7) Denver 19 - CJ2K left, CJ2K right, CJ2k for 130+ with at least one score

Detroit 31 MINNESOTA 30 (+3) - LIons continue to show they are legit as Matthew Stafford hooks up with Calvin Johnson late to outlast Adrian Peterson

CAROLINA 29 (-3) Jacksonville 14 - Less Cam passing equals more Panthers winning

SAN DIEGO 38 (-14.5) Kansas City 14 - Even playing with one Gates tied behind their back, Chargers roll behind Ryan Mathews and Mike Tolbert

NY Jets 20 OAKLAND 17 (+3.5) - Tempted to pick the Raiders for the win. If they do, AFC West becomes a dog fight, but all Darren McFadden can do is help his squad cover

Baltimore 24 (-5) ST. LOUIS 17 - Which Ravens team is legit, the one that clobbered the Steelers or came up way short against the Titans? Ray Rice and Anquan Boldin say the former.

Atlanta 28 (+1.5) TAMPA BAY 27 - When you don't care for either team, go for the one you picked to make the playoffs (but not the Super Bowl) before the season started

Arizona 24 SEATTLE 21 (+3.5) - Cardinals could win by two scores, but the Seahawks home crowd keeps the game despite Tavaris Jackson's presence

Green Bay 31 CHICAGO 28 (+4) - Jay Cutler throws for a ton of yards against a Packers secondary allowing 400 per game, but he also throws a brutal pick late while Aaron Rodgers rallies the cheese heads

Pittsburgh 34 (-11.5) INDIANAPOLIS 20 - Not sure there is one Colt I'd start in fantasy, unless your league has punting stats

DALLAS 24 Washington 23 (+4) - No spread due to all the Cowboys injuries. We'll learn a lot about the Redskins in their first road game.

Last week: Straight (10-6), Spread (6-10); Overall: Straight (17-15), Spread (13-19)

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Survivor picks - Carolina...then San Diego or Pittsburgh

Wk. 1 - Houston...Wk. 2 - Detroit...

Week 2 - NFL games, Survivor picks with bonus fantasy angles!!!

Who will win, step up and get beat down in Week 2 of the NFL season...

These game predictions do not reflect the opinion of FFToolbox.com but just a solo fantasy writer who is still waiting for the replay booth to say Darren McFadden actually scored at the end of that long run...As a reminder, email any questions, be it about lineup fantasy decisions, trades, strategy or free agents, to podcast@fftoolbox.com or send tweets to @benstandig. Also download the weekly FFToolbox.com podcast - hosted by yours truly with guests from the Rotoworld, CBS Sports, NY Times and the National Football Post. Scheduled for Tuesday's and Thursday's at 7 p.m. or anytime via ITunes and that's where you will find this week's fantasy angles...

Home Team in CAPS

NEW ORLEANS 27 (-6.5) Chicago 14 - Consider this more anti-Cutler (or assuming bad Jay shows up on the road in a dome after a solid opener) than pro-Saints. Also hard to see Drew Brees and crew starting 0-2 seeing as I have them reaching the NFC Championship game.

NY JETS 26 (-8.5) Jacksonville 10 - Not actually sure how the Jags get 10 points. I like Nick Folk more than Mark Sanchez this week and Shonn Greene gets 16+ touches.

DETROIT 34 (-7) Kansas City 17 - My crystal ball says Jahvid Best will show off his Jammal Charles impression, specifically on the blowing past defenders with his stopwatch worthy speed for long runs. Classic.

BUFFALO 24 (-4) Oakland 17 - Am I really saying the Bills will go 2-0? I'm saying the Bills will go 2-0, despite Darren McFadden posting 120 total yards and finding the end zone. Twice.

WASHINGTON 24 (-3.5) ARIZONA 20 - Rex Grossman finishes as a top-10 QB play this week, Tim Hightower scores against his old mates and Jabar Gaffney becomes a free agent target after another touchdown,

Baltimore 20 TENNESSEE 17 (+6) - Ravens looked awesome last week against the Steelers. Huge win, for their psyche if nothing else, which is emotional letdown is inevitable, enough to let Titans hang around.

PITTSBURGH 38 (-14) Seattle 17 - Name your score game for the Steelers. Mike Wallace calls for 100+ yards and a score.

Green Bay 31 CAROLINA 22 - Aaron Rodgers and James Starks lead the Packers, but Cam Newton's legs and the home crowd get the Panthers a cover win. And yes, I'm starting Steve Smith if needed.

MINNESOTA 23 (-2.5) Tampa Bay 20 - If Donovan McNabb doesn't look like a professional QB this week, the calls for Christian Ponder will make it seem like the Broncos fans don't even like Tim Tebow by comparison. So the aging vet dials back the clock and throws for two scores.

INDIANAPOLIS 24 (+2.5) Cleveland 17 - No, I'm not saying the Colts are suddenly good. I'm reminding folks the Browns lost to the Bengals last week.

Dallas 24 (-3.5) SAN FRANCISCO 19 - As I feared on Thursday's podcast, doesn't sound good for Dez Bryant this week. Tread lightly on starting him if you have to enter lineup by 1pm.

MIAMI 26 (+3.5) Houston 24 - The Dolphins cover and win as Brandon Marshall keeps on keeping on.

NEW ENGLAND 31 San Diego 27 (+7) - The Chargers have a healthy record against the Patriots and Philip Rivers is poised for a monster game, but I don't go against Tom Brady unless forced. Not the case here, but close.

DENVER 24 (-3.5) Cincinnati 16 - With Knowshon Moreno looking unlikely to go - shocker, I know - here is my bold Willis McGahee's final stat line prediction: 18 touches, 79 yards, two touchdowns.

Philadelphia 31 (-2.5) ATLANTA 28 - I nearly waffled on this pick and took the Falcons until I remembered I think the Falcons are over-hyped and that was before they suffered injuries along their defensive line. As long as Michael Vick doesn't try to be Superman in his return to Atlanta, the Eagles get err done.

NY GIANTS 27 (-6.5) St. Louis 17 - That's my take if Hakeem Nicks is active. If he's out - and especially if Steven Jackson is active - then Rams keep it closer than the experts think.

Last week: Straight (9-7), Spread (6-10); Overall: Straight (9-7), Spread (6-10)

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Survivor picks - Detroit...then Pittsburgh or NY Jets

Week 1 - NFL and Survivor picks; NFL season picks

Who will win, step up and get beat down in Week 1 of the NFL season...

These game predictions do not reflect the opinion of FFToolbox.com but just a solo fantasy writer who promises to do better with his predictions or your money back...As a reminder, email any questions, be it about lineup fantasy decisions, trades, strategy or free agents, to podcast@fftoolbox.com or send tweets to @benstandig. Also download the weekly FFToolbox.com podcast - hosted by yours truly with guests from the Rotoworld, CBS Sports, NY Times and the National Football Post. Scheduled for Tuesday's and Thursday's at 7 p.m. or anytime via ITunes and that's where you will find this week's fantasy angles...

Home Team in CAPS

Atlanta 23 CHICAGO 21 (+2.5)

HOUSTON 31 Indianapolis 23 (+9)

KANSAS CITY 24 Buffalo 20 (+5.5)

Tennessee 27 (+1) JACKSONVILLE 17

CLEVELAND 28 (-6) Cincinnati 17

ST. LOUIS 24 (+4) Philadelphia 21

Pittsburgh 20 (+1) BALTIMORE 17

Detroit 27 (+1) TAMPA BAY 23

SAN DIEGO 34 (-9) Minnesota 21

WASHINGTON 20 (+2.5) NY Giants 17

ARIZONA 24 (-6) Carolina 14

SAN FRANCISCO 22 Seattle 17 (+5.5)

NY JETS 24 (-5.5) Dallas 17

New England 23 MIAMI 17

DENVER 28 (-3) Oakland 24

GREEN BAY 35 (-4) New Orleans 30

Last week: Straight, Spread; Overall: Straight, Spread

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Survivor picks

Entry 1 - Houston

Entry 2 - Kansas City (but I'm tempted to go with Cleveland)

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NFL season predictions

NFC Division winners: Philadelphia, Green Bay, New Orleans, Arizona

NFC wild cards: Atlanta, Detroit

NFC Champion: Green Bay

NFC Championship game: Green Bay over New Orleans

AFC Division winners: New England, Pittsburgh, Tennessee, San Diego

AFC wild cards: New York Jets, Houston

AFC Championship game: New England over San Diego

Super Bowl: Green Bay over New England

Regular season MVP: 1) Philip Rivers 2) Aaron Rodgers 3) Tom Brady

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On the FFToobox podcast and elsewhere I've been yapping about fantasy football players I love and those I loathe, both overall and relative to their draft day rank. Here is the compilation of those rants and my final stance on all heading into the 2011 NFL season. And yes, I was down on Peyton Manning waaaaaay before his neck injury became a doom and gloom scenario...

Quarterbacks

Loving - Aaron Rodgers, Philip Rivers, Tony Romo, Matthew Stafford

Liking - Tom Brady, Drew Brees, Ben Roethlisberger, Chad Henne, Vince Young

Loathing - Peyton Manning, Ryan Fitzpatrick, Matt Cassel, Andy Dalton

My fave - Matthew Stafford, if of course- say it with me - he can stay healthy

Don't get the fantasy hype - Sam Bradford, unless you tell me which of his receivers will definitely emerge

Running backs

Loving - Ray Rice, Chris Johnson, Jamaal Charles, Stephen Jackson, Darren McFadden, Jahvid Best, Reggie Bush, Ryan Mathews, Ben Tate, Delone Carter, Roy Helu Jr.

Liking - Arian Foster, LeSean McCoy, Maurice Jones-Drew, LeGarrette Blount, Shonn Greene, Fred Jackson, Mark Ingram ,Tim Hightower, Brandon Jacobs, Kendall Hunter

Loathing - Michael Turner, Peyton Hillis, Frank Gore, Ryan Grant, C. J. Spiller, BenJarvus Green-Ellis, Marshawn Lynch, Daniel Thomas, Donald Brown, Ryan Torain

My fave - Darren McFadden. Beast.

Don't get the fantasy hype - Felix Jones, seeing as the one year he stayed healthy he lost his game-breaking pop. Until it all happens in the same season, can't see why he was getting picked in round two or three...

Wide Receiver

Loving - Larry Fitzgerald, Hakeem Nicks, Vincent Jackson, Greg Jennings, Brandon Marshall, Dez Bryant, Jordy Nelson, Jacoby Ford, Eric Decker

Liking - Mike Wallace, Mario Manningham, Julio Jones, Santana Moss, Lee Evans, Mike Sims-Walker, Plaxico Burress, Emmanuel Sanders, Jabar Gaffney

Loathing - Marques Colston, Reggie Wayne, Brandon Lloyd, Dwayne Bowe, Steve Johnson, Johnny Knox, Pierre Garcon, Michael Crabtree, Donald Driver

My fave - Jordy Nelson. Beast in the Super Bowl, has best chance to be the number three target in unreal passing attack.

Don't get the fantsay hype - Marques Colston/Steve Johnson. Colston way inconsistent for where he gets drafted and let's see Johnson perform without Lee Evans and defenses keying on him.

Tight End

Loving - Jermichael Finley, Jason Witten, Vernon Davis, Jimmy Graham, Jared Cook

Liking - Antonio Gates, Rob Gronkowski, Brandon Pettigrew, Aaron Hernandez, Greg Olsen

Loathing - Marcedes Lewis, Tony Gonzalez, Chris Cooley, Visante Shiancoe

My fave - Graham/Cook. The pair could lead their respective teams in receptions.

Don't get the fantasy hype - Tony Gonzalez (there might not be hype, but people continued draft him like it's 2004)

Defenses

Loving - Green Bay, Detroit, St. Louis, Arizona, teams that play against Andy Dalton and the other rookie passers

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