Week 3: PPR Watch
For too long PPR leagues have been fantasy football second-class citizens. PPR is an after thought, a quick mention at the end of the column, as though it were unworthy of sound research and a singular focus. Well no more, brother. PPR honors the role players of the NFL, the first down makers, the guy that goes over the middle, and even occasionally, the wise running back that catches a pass for negative yardage. PPR is here and our time is now.
RB Ryan Mathews, ---
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Sure Thing - If you don't own Matthews and think you can pull off a trade to acquire him, I'd highly recommend it. It's probably already too late to get him at a big discount, but his upside at this point is off the charts in PPR. San Diego is throwing the ball to running backs at an astonishing rate, and Matthews and Tolbert have combined for 28 receptions through just 2 weeks. Tolbert has the goal-line locked up, but San Diego didn't draft Matthews to be a backup, and he's quickly becoming the featured runner, averaging 5.3 a carry against NE, compared with Tolbert's 1.1. The more he's out there, the more receptions he's going to pull down, and itseems like he'll find some opportunities to score. I shouldn't need to hype the match-up against Kansas City, it's awesome. Get Matthews into your lineup this week, and every week from here on out.
WR Kenny Britt, ---
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Confident - Ok, Kenny Britt. I'll never doubt you again. It's rare I cover the same player on back to back weeks, but Britt deserves a second mention. Britt tore apart the Ravens secondary, catching 9 balls for 135 yards and a TD; I know I didn't see it coming. Well if you're a Britt owner, the trade offers are going to be coming in droves, and while it would be tempting to sell high, it's starting to become difficult to project a real ceiling for the 6'3 215 pounder out of Rutgers. Tennessee is probably going to be an up and down offense, but Britt is healthy and playing like a true elite #1. This is a player that has taken their game to the next level, and as long as he can stay on the field, he's basically an automatic start the rest of the way so I won't be mentioning him again. This week Tennessee gets Denver, and while it's probably the game CJ2K gets going, with Champ Bailey most likely out, I'm betting Britt gets his as well.
TE Fred Davis, ---
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Confident - Davis is owned so little still that I could get by listing him as a sleeper, but I'll take it a step further and move him into a confident spot. This is a guy that should be owned in all formats. He's top 10 in TE targets -- grabbing 11 of 13 balls thrown his way -- and second in yards with 191 through 2 weeks. Yeah, it's a small sample size, but we've seen glimpses of Davis' talent in the past. With Cooley's injury problems, Davis is quickly becoming a big part of this offense. Grossman hasn't been shy about throwing the ball this year (43 attempts against Arizona), and Dallas' secondary is a pretty sweet match-up. If you're looking for a TE, roll with Davis this week and you should be nicely rewarded.
RB Ben Tate, ---
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Confident - Maybe it should go without saying, but I want to call this one out. As long as Arian Foster is unavailable or severely limited, Ben Tate is a must start and should be viewed as a solid RB1 in any format. Yup, a RB1. Just about every running back that's had an opportunity has put up excellent numbers with Houston over the past few years, and Tate is no exception. Out of a shared role, Tate is already 3rd in the NFL in rushing. After 2 weeks, the Texans have attempted more running plays than any other team; 4 receptions in week 2 suggest the PPR value that came with Foster will be there for Tate as well. If Foster owners try to pry him from you, accept only top five round value in return. New Orleans won't be an easy match-up, but there should be plenty of scoring and Tate is going to be heavily involved.
RB Dexter McCluster, ---
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Caution - The situation in Kansas City is so painful right now, it's probably one you should run from with your head down and never look back. Still, Dexter McCluster is now a starting running back, and he's worthy of a roster spot -- especially in PPR. There is debate on whether Thomas Jones or Le'Ron McClain will get goal-line, but you can be sure it won't be McCluster. What McCluster probably will do, is get 15+ touches a game. He's an excellent receiver (even qualifies in some leagues), and the Chiefs wanted to use him more before the Charles injury, now they're going to have to. He's worth consideration as a flex, but he's lost a fumble in each of the first 2 weeks, and this offense has been so bad that even with a full half of garbage time McCluster didn't do much in the passing game against the Lions. The upside is worth a flyer, but I'd advise against playing him until you've seen a startable number in the box score at least once.
TE Scott Chandler, ---
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Caution - Thee touchdowns in 2 weeks will get you a lot of well deserved attention. Chandler is flying off the waiver wire, and as I discuss later, there is a lot to be said for anyone with a set place in this Bills offense. There is no doubt Fitzpatrick likes the 6'7 TE in the endzone. He's had 6 looks there to go along with his 3 scores, but this is PPR and for now I still see him as a backup only. Chandler had just 2 catches for 16 yards against Oakland, and there isn't a proven track record to fall back on. This week Buffalo goes up against New England, fresh off completely shutting down Antonio Gates. The Pats won't give Chandler the same double coverage respect all game long, but they've been tough over the middle anyway, will focus on him in the redzone, and you probably have someone more proven.
WR Dwayne Bowe, ---
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Avoid - It almost feels unfair to pile on the Chiefs, but the developments in Kansas City these first 2 weeks are one of the most significant storylines in the NFL. Bowe had a decent day on Sunday, with 5 meaningless receptions for 101 meaningless yards. Not bad for fantasy purposes, but while Cam Newton is busy throwing for 400 yards a game, Matt Cassel has yet to go over 300 yards for the whole season. With numbers like that, it's hard to get very excited about Bowe (who's never been a consistent player anyway). The Chiefs carry their 0-2 burden into San Diego, and it's about as bad a match-up as you can find. Bowe had a total of 2 catches for 16 yards against the Chargers in TWO GAMES last year, and Kansas City has obviously taken several steps backwards as a team. There's help on the waiver wire with guys like Decker, Nelson, and Moore and I'd at least consider starting any of them over Bowe in week 3.
WR David Nelson, PIT
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Sleeper - If I haven't said it before, I should have. I love big Wide Receivers. Everyone does. And I like them even better when they play on an excellent offense, which is exactly what the Bills look like after 2 weeks. Don't let the depth chart fool you, Nelson -- operating from the slot -- is Fitzpatrick's second favorite target. He may not have 10 catches every week, but with his size and ball skills he's going to be a threat as possession guy as well as an end-zone target. After a game winning reception, and probably a million write-ups this week, Nelson is going to be on every-ones radar. Don't be afraid to use a waiver on him if you want to wrap him up. It looks like everyone is going to be playing from behind against the Patriots this year, which means a lot of passing for the Bills and a lot of opportunity for Nelson.