NFL Running Back By Committee (RBBC) 2011 Preview

There will at least ten teams entering the 2011 season with something close to a running back by committee (RBBC) approach. These teams include the Arizona Cardinals, Carolina Panthers, Cincinnati Bengals, Dallas Cowboys, Denver Broncos, Miami Dolphins, New York Giants, New York Jets, Oakland Raiders and Washington Redskins. But every team has a No. 2 running back who steals carries -- whether it's a third-down back or a back used to spell the starter.

I've listed each NFL team by their current starter's last name.

RB Joseph Addai, --- - Bye Week Fill-in

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The Indianapolis Colts most certainly have a RBBC on their hands between Joseph Addai, Mike Hart and rookie Delone Carter. Given Addai's draft position (87.16), there isn't much risk involved as long as he is healthy. But that is of course the main concern. Addai has missed anywhere from one to eight games every year he's been in the league (excluding his rookie year). Early reports from The Indianapolis Star have indicated that Donald Brown, who failed to do much with his opportunities as a starter last season, may be enjoying his last season on the Colts. Assuming he plays at least 12 games, Addai is a solid option as RB3 with decent upside. Given the number of options the Colts have, there's no reason to overwork him. Although there may be a temptation to consider Hart, Brown or Carter as a late-round flier, it's too early to tell which player will emerge as a RB2 on this team. Indy will likely work that out from game to game during the season.

RB Cedric Benson, --- - Bust (overvalued)

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With new offensive coordinator Jay Gruden in Cincinnati and QB Carson Palmer having one foot out the door, it's hard to know where potential free agent RB Cedric Benson fits in for the Bengals next year. Benson had the fifth most touches of any back in the NFL last season, yet was generally ranked in the mid-teens for total fantasy points at his position, depending upon the scoring system. Although many owners are drooling at the thought of RB2 Bernard Scott having a breakout year, Benson is still a relatively "young" 28 years old, considering he did not eclipse 200-plus carries until playing for the Bengals in 2008. But there is no ignoring the potential that Benson has been overworked with 667 touches over the last two seasons. And when factoring in his big dropoff in yards per carry from 2009 to 2010 (4.2 ypc down to 3.5), the trend isn't headed in the right direction. For owners who like to grab RBs early and often in drafts, Benson is a solid RB3 but a worrisome RB2. If rookie QB Andy Dalton is at the helm of this offense, it's hard to imagine the less than fleetfooted Benson succeeding against crowded eight-man fronts. His longest run in 2010 was only 26 yards and had only two runs of 20-plus yards all year. Benson isn't a bad selection if he falls in the draft a little bit, but reaching for him is definitely out of the question. He may improve slightly this year, but the performance numbers indicate he may have peaked in 2009. Finally, Scott is a decent late-round flier, but as long as Benson is healthy he's the man.

RB Jahvid Best, --- - Quality Backup

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Jahvid Best started last season red hot by scoring five touchdowns in the first two weeks. After that, not much else happened. For PPR leagues, he put up steady points, but he only managed one more touchdown all season and it didn't come until week 16. The Detroit Lions made a statement by taking rookie Mikel Leshoure in the second round. Although Best showed a lot of promise in his first year, Detroit is moving forward with a two-back system. The Lions have a lot of potential on offense (particularly if Matthew Stafford can stay healthy). Best remains the RB1, but fantasy owners shouldn't expect an increase of his touches. Head coach Jim Schwartz has said publicly that Leshoure will be utilized to kill the clock and in short-yardage situations. When the Lions have the lead and want to pound the ball in the second half, Leshoure will eat into Best's production. Between Detroit's top four backs last season, there were 102 carries when Detroit had the lead. Assuming Detroit improves, there's a good shot for 100-plus carries for Leshoure, but that's an optimistic projection of course. Best is a very good flex option, but he's not much of a RB2 if the Lions stick to a timeshare. While it may seem like this is a favorable situation for Leshoure (and he does have some late-round value), it is restricted to deep-league formats only.

RB LeGarrette Blount, --- - Sleeper (undervalued)

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The Tampa Bay Buccaneers are easy to root for. They're young and outperformed their expectations last season. This includes their RB1 LeGarrette Blount. In spite of becoming the starter in week 11, Blount made the most out of it by rushing for 648 yards in his seven starts. At that pace for a full 16 game season, Blount would have rushed for nearly 1,500 yards. This is why many fantasy analysts are listing him as a potential sleeper, which is a fair assessment based on his performance. Blount took many teams by surprise and defenses now have more game tape of him to figure out how to best effectively stop him. It's important to remember: Blount is a big back who is going to take a lot of punishment. While the distinction of being a sleeper is hard to argue against, he has to stay healthy and the Bucs don't have much behind him to give him rests. Backup Earnest Graham may be released, while rookie Allen Bradford will likely be limited to a short-yardage role. Blount should improve upon his 2010 total, but don't expect a huge leap in his production.

RB Ahmad Bradshaw, --- - Sleeper (undervalued)

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Assuming the Giants re-sign Bradshaw, he should have no problems duplicating his 2010 numbers (1,245 rushing yards and 8 TDs). RB2 Brandon Jacobs is one of the most valuable backup RBs in the league and makes for a great flex play considering the Giants' willingness to use both he and Bradshaw in the red zone. On the off-chance that Bradshaw does not return, RB3 Danny Ware becomes a great sleeper option. But again, assuming Bradshaw is back, he's undervalued. The Giants definitely had a great thing going between he and Jacobs last season. Both players combined for over 2,000 yards and 17 TDs. Bradshaw is only 25 years old and even when considering his fumbling problems, he should remain a highly productive RB2 with even more value in PPR leagues.

RB Jamaal Charles, --- - Stud (low risk)

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The scary thing about Jamaal Charles is that he finished second on the team with 230 carries behind Thomas Jones (245), yet outrushed him by nearly 600 yards. Head coach Todd Haley has implied that he plans on giving Charles a larger workload. Just for argument's sake, if Charles had 300 carries and maintained his yards per carry average (6.4), he'd accumulate 1,915 yards on the season. But let's not get too carried away. There is a case to be made that Charles has not yet peaked statistically and could potentially be the No. 1 fantasy back in the league next year if he can stay healthy and take on a bigger workload. RB2 Thomas Jones is an adequate flex option but there's only so many touches to go around. Haley also suggested Jones was "running on fumes" late last season and asked him to slim down. Jones is somewhere between a flex option and a bye week fill-in player. As for Charles, he's an unquestioned fantasy stud who should be taken no later than with the fourth pick in all leagues.

RB Matt Forte, --- - Solid/Safe Pick

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Forte is one of those backs with mixed opinions on his projected value due to his breakout rookie year, sophomore slump and playing somewhere in-between in his third year. On paper, this is a great situation. He is the clear RB1 with no real threat behind him. RB2 Chester Taylor averaged a preposterously low 2.4 yards per carry last year. Behind Taylor, there isn't much else other than mop-up duty guys like Garrett Wolfe, Harvey Unga and Kahlil Bell. It's important to remember that Chicago's offensive line is below average and in spite of that, Forte put up good numbers. Think of him as a Ray Rice-lite: Great yardage, plenty of receptions out of the backfield and a solid number of touchdowns. The Bears added OL Gabe Carimi and even with the lockout, he's one of the more ready-to-play rookie linemen. Forte will certainly produce in a very reliable way and although there isn't much upside, he's much safer than some of the older backs who will be available when Forte goes off the board. He's in the prime of his career at the age of 25 and in all likelihood, he has not yet peaked.

RB Arian Foster, --- - Stud (low risk)

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For those fantasy owners looking for a reason to doubt Arian Foster's talent, it won't be found here. There is a reason he had so many touches and raked up the production, and it's because he's supremely talented. There is an argument to be made for four backs (Foster, Adrian Peterson, Chris Johnson and Jamaal Charles) to be the No. 1 pick in fantasy drafts, but consider this: which offense is the safest bet? Minnesota will definitely give Peterson the ball as many times as they can, but do they have a quarterback to keep defenses honest? That's unknown. The same can be said about Tennessee with Johnson. Charles might get more touches, but Thomas Jones will still take a bite out of his numbers. So ultimately, Foster may be the safe selection amongst the four. That said, Houston's RB2 Ben Tate will spell Foster on occasion and it seems very unlikely Foster will match his 393 touches from last season. This certainly will not be a timeshare though. Foster owners should consider adding Tate as a handcuff but his value doesn't go much further beyond that.

RB Frank Gore, --- - Bust (overvalued)

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The problem with Frank Gore has always been the same. Fantasy owners are left to hope he's able to stay healthy. 2010 was an example of a year where he could not. Injuries forced him to miss six games, including the game he was ultimately injured in. Up until that point, he had been spotty at best and for those who used a first-round pick to select him, they had to have been disappointed in his performance up until that point in the season. This year, Gore will likely be selected around the end of the first round or early in the second. For owners wanting to succeed during their fantasy playoff stretch, counting on an injury-prone back is a serious concern. While he remains the clear-cut, unquestioned top back in San Francisco (unless he falls towards the latter half of the second round), he's not worth the risk. Of course, he could rebound and put up numbers similar to his 2009 season where he had over 1,500-plus total yards and 13 TDs, but that's a very optimistic point of view since his healthy has always been a concern. San Francisco still lacks a QB and is under a new coaching staff. Gore makes for a great RB2 on your roster, but he's too risky as a RB1. RB2 Anthony Dixon isn't a bad option as a handcuff since Gore may end up hurt again.

RB BenJarvus Green-Ellis, --- - Bye Week Fill-in

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Just when you thought it was safe to draft a New England Patriots' running back, they went ahead and further muddied their depth chart by adding two more backs in the 2011 NFL Draft. BenJarvus Green-Ellis should still be considered the RB1, but with the presence of RB2 Danny Woodhead (131 touches in 2010) and rookies Shane Vereen and Stevan Ridley, it's impossible to even assume to know how this will play out. BJGE's success was largely based on opportunity last year. It should be a foregone conclusion that there will be a drop in his touches, and so goes his fantasy value. So while he will remain the RB1 on paper, he's a flex option at best. Woodhead has some value in deeper PPR leagues. The two rookies, Vereen and Ridley, are unlikely to garner enough carries to have any impact.

RB Shonn Greene, --- - Sleeper (undervalued)

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The New York Jets run the ball a lot and head coach Rex Ryan has repeatedly and consistently said they are going to give Shonn Greene more opportunities. Although there is the perception that Greene has been a relative disappointment, he still hasn't been given enough of a workload to solidify that opinion. Greene should eclipse LaDainian Tomlinson as the Jets' primary back. Tomlinson has also said publicly he wants to be the third down back, making for a 60-40 split of the carries. At that rate and given last season's number of carries between the two backs, Greene should see at least 250 carries and 1,000-plus yards. The Jets still don't score enough points to make Greene a potential top 10 back, even in a career year. But he's still improving and has yet to reach his statistical ceiling. As for Tomlinson, he's a great flex option for PPR leagues as long as owners don't reach for him.

RB Peyton Hillis, --- - Quality Backup

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Believe in the Madden Curse? Well Peyton Hillis is on the Madden NFL 12 cover, so keep that in mind if you're superstitious. For those who prefer rational discourse when it comes to these things, you're at the right place. Hillis seemingly came out of nowhere to become one of the breakout stars of the 2010 season. Although his production began to stifle in the final three weeks of the season, there's still plenty of reason to envision a reasonably successful follow-up campaign. Hillis put up good numbers on only 270 carries and for PPR leagues, he also hauled in 61 receptions for 477 yards. Even with the potential of RB2 Montario Hardesty poaching carries, Cleveland still lacks a potent passing attack. Their offense will first and foremost come through the run game, even if QB Colt McCoy improves in his second season. RB3 Mike Bell should only come into play if Hardesty doesn't produce, making him essentially a non-factor barring injuries. The Browns are still a team in a very tough division with two great defenses in the Pittsburgh Steelers and Baltimore Ravens. Cleveland is likely to be playing catch up in most games, limiting the number of times Hillis will touch the ball if there's a decent split between he and Hardesty. Hillis is going with the first pick of the third round in 12-team leagues according to ADP results from MyFantasyLeague.com. With that in mind, Hillis should only be drafted as a RB2, not a RB1. The big risk is that he will disappear from week-to-week (which he did in 2010) because the Browns' likelihood to fall behind early. All that said, Hillis remains a very solid selection as long as owners don't reach for him and expect him to improve upon his 2010 numbers.

RB Fred Jackson, --- - Bye Week Fill-in

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There are times when Fred Jackson can take over a football game; problem is, those times are very few and far between. He only eclipsed 100-plus yards three times last year. The truth is, Buffalo is likely to see what they can get out of second-year RB C.J. Spiller early and often this fall. But this situation is a true RBBC. Spiller is not a three-down back yet. He's best used along the edges and whenever possible in the open field. If Buffalo can block for him, Spiller could potentially become a Jamaal Charles clone with his straight-line speed. But this is an optimistic point of view and speaks to his high-end potential. The Bills have yet to figure out how to properly utilize Spiller and while the scouting report says he should be able to play outside the hashes, he needs to prove it. Buffalo drafted RB Johnny White as an insurance policy. He's going to be a year away from contributing barring injuries. Even with the presence of both young backs, Jackson is the safe RB selection on the Bills even at the age of 30. He will still see roughly 200-plus touches and while his production won't single-handedly win anyone a title, he is a good flex option in standard leagues. At the very least, owners should know what to expect from him week-to-week. But if you can stomach the risk - or prefer it - consider Spiller between the two, because his top-end speed keeps him very fantasy relevant.

RB Steven Jackson, NE - Solid/Safe Pick

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Jackson's production fell slightly in 2010. His yards per carry average went down and his carries went up. While he remains the sole bread winner in the the Rams' backfield, this is now QB Sam Bradford's team. His presence in the pocket may open things up a bit for Jackson, but most would likely agree that last season marked the beginning of SJax's decline. The one thing Jackson has going for him is that he is still the every-down back and he'll get all the goal-line carries. Considering all the other options in the second and third rounds (where Jackson will likely be selected), Jackson is a tough sell. It's hard to imagine he improves this year on a team with an emerging passing game. He may see a slight increase in his PPR numbers, but that should come at the expense of his rushing totals. Jackson will be 28 at the start of the season and while we more or less know what to expect out of him, he's a solid pick with very little upside. There are no other backs on the Rams' roster who are worth a look.

RB Chris Johnson, --- - Stud (low risk)

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Before last season, I predicted that Chris Johnson would be very unlikely to come close to matching his 2,509 total yards and 16 TD performance in 2009. The history of 2,000-plus yard rushers indicates as much. Johnson's 4.3 yards per carry was a career-low and his total touches dropped from 408 down to 360. Realistically, his touches could increase with rookie QB Jake Locker in the starting lineup and defenses will be even more keyed in on Johnson. But the truth is, he's still going to get his carries, receptions, yardage and touchdowns. He's just that good. The argument then becomes about whether or not he can meet the statistical expectations of a top 3 fantasy back. If he doesn't, it will most certainly be attributed to a mediocre offense led by Locker. Another concern is the legal troubles of WR Kenny Britt, which could lead to a suspension. All of this adds up to the conclusion that the box will consistently be full of eight man defensive fronts, which will only further limit Johnson's outstanding ability. He's still an offensive powerhouse though and a lock to go amongst the first few picks in fantasy drafts. RB2 Javon Ringer is fighting for his roster spot with rookie back Jamie Harper, so that is a competition worth watching. Whoever emerges will make for a solid handcuff.

RB Felix Jones, --- - Bye Week Fill-in

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If only the Dallas Cowboys could convert their "great on paper" backfield into on the field success as opposed to the reality of their continually underperforming backfield. "RB1" Felix Jones didn't live up to the sleeper predictions placed upon him last summer and head coach Jason Garrett has already confirmed he plans to rotate backs "a lot." Of course anything can happen during a season and Jones is still a speedster with some upside. With the selection of rookie back DeMarco Murray, the only logical conclusion is that the Cowboys are ready to move on without Marion Barber, who averaged a woeful 3.3 yards per carry in 2010. This thrusts Tashard Choice into the role of RB2. Given the strong likelihood of a RBBC, fantasy owners should expect around a 3 to 2 to 1 ratio of carries between the three backs (ie 180 carries for Jones, 120 for Choice and 60 for Murray). Jones gets a decent value bump in PPR leagues but in a platoon, expectations should remain tempered. Although on the bright side, having Tony Romo back for a full season should open up more running lanes and help this offense find the red zone more frequently. For those hoping to land Jones, he should score more this year (two touchdowns last season). But anyone hoping he becomes an every-down back, it should be kept in mind that this is a leap of faith because of his track record and how Dallas has utilized him up until this point. Last but not least, Choice is a great deep-league flier while dynasty leagues should consider Murray a decent late-round option.

RB Maurice Jones-Drew, --- - Solid/Safe Pick

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In only 14 games last season, MJD piled up the touches (333) and production (1641 total yards and 7 TDs) yet again. There are injury concerns as he's spending this offseason coming back from a meniscus (knee) surgery. But this is still the same fantasy stud we've all come to appreciate over the years. For RB2 Rashad Jennings, he has to be a handcuff. The main reason being he proved last year that he's a capable backup by rushing for 5.5 yards per carry on 84 carries. That said, concerns about a potential two-back timeshare are overstated. What makes Jones-Drew so valuable is his ability to be an every-down back as well as working the goal-line. Jacksonville will of course need to get to the goal-line more frequently, but it is what it is. Jones-Drew should still be a first round selection and is a safe RB1 across all formats.

RB Marshawn Lynch, --- - Bye Week Fill-in

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Besides that crazy run that Marshawn Lynch had in the playoffs against the New Orleans Saints, it was another ho-hum year for him. In 14 starts between the 'Hawks and Bills, Lynch was limited to 737 yards on 202 carries. His six touchdowns weren't too shabby but, three of them came in a single game against the Carolina Panthers. Seattle did add an offensive lineman in the first round, so there is the potential for improved blocking, but Seattle has a long way to go to become offensively viable. Their 297.8 yards per game ranked 28th in the league. It doesn't help matters that RB2 Justin Forsett has a very firm grasp on the role of third down back. Lynch finished the season with 224 touches and Forsett had 151. Another 60-40 timeshare should be expected. Both players are bye week fill-ins at best, regardless of the league format. There just isn't much upside to either player.

RB Ryan Mathews, --- - Solid/Safe Pick

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Ryan Mathews didn't reach fruition like many had hoped in his rookie campaign. But the Chargers gave up a lot to trade up for him last season, so there's no way he'll be relegated to a backup role without being given many chances to prove himself. The problem is, RB2 Mike Tolbert is going to poach most (if not all) of the goal-line carries between the two backs. Mathews only had 13 carries or more five times last year. Now, that's the argument against Mathews being a solid RB2 on your fantasy roster. The reality is Mathews performed fine when given the opportunity. He should be very close to an every-down back in 2011. The Chargers have expressed interest in expanding his role. Mathews' contributions as a receiver out of the backfield can't be forgotten as well. Realistically, San Diego is likely to break him in incrementally over the next two seasons. Mathews should see his touches increase about 30 percent at a minimum (180 in 2010 up to at least 240 in 2011). This makes Mathews a solid RB2 in fantasy leagues, while Tolbert is relegated to a bye week fill-in player.

RB LeSean McCoy, --- - Stud (low risk)

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McCoy's 1600-plus yards and nine touchdowns last year have made him a certifiable RB1. He also led all RBs with 78 receptions, a dozen more than the next back in the league, making McCoy even more valuable in PPR leagues. A small problem here though is that the Eagles have so many weapons on offense that McCoy scored five of his seven rushing touchdowns by week 5. QB Michael Vick actually led the team in rushing TDs (9) and he missed four games. All things considered, McCoy is in a great spot with the Eagles. RB2 Jerome Harrison very rarely gets more than a couple carries per game, making him a handcuff at best. McCoy should be drafted amongst the first ten picks in every draft.

RB Darren McFadden, --- - Solid/Safe Pick

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Despite his breakout performance last season, there are reasons to think Darren McFadden can improve. He missed three games last year and also was basically shutout of one game against the Dolphins. So McFadden's 1650-plus total yards and 10 touchdowns could feasibly be over 2000-plus yards and 13 touchdowns. But as long as RB2 Michael Bush is healthy, McFadden's production is less likely to occur. Bush is a lock for about 150 carries and 4.1 yards per carry; he can hold his own. Bush should be considered a quality reserve in deep league formats. McFadden on the other hand should be off the draft board by the end of the first round. Rookie back Taiwan Jones is very unlikely to contribute much unless one of the backs gets hurt.

RB Rashard Mendenhall, --- - Solid/Safe Pick

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Although he's made more headlines this offseason for what he's said, Rashard Mendenhall remains a legit young back in the NFL. AT 24 years old, there is still room for growth in his production. The Steelers' RB2 is Isaac Redman and while he's a capable backup, that's all his role is and he only has handcuff value in 2011. Mendenhall lacks top-notch speed, but he's a crafty runner who churns his legs for extra yardage between the tackles. It's unlikely he exceeds his 2010 total of 324 carries, but he can definitely improve his 3.9 yards per carry. Tough runners who work inside the hashes typically are in the 4.0 ypc range, but even a small bump to 4.2 ypc would have made him the third leading rusher in the NFL. Feel confident drafting Mendenhall in the second-half of the first round and if he's still on the board in the second round, definitely add him to your team.

RB Knowshon Moreno, --- - Bust (overvalued)

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Woody Paige of ESPN fame reported via the Denver Post that the Broncos' management had come to the conclusion that Moreno was "not a big-time football player." Ouch. Now Paige is known for being a bit grandiose in his opinions, but this isn't a good sign to say the least. New head coach John Fox is definitely interested in making the Broncos a run-heavy offense and has told the media exactly that. Realistically, Moreno will get a shot to prove himself. But Fox and the Broncos have to be a leading-candidate to go after pending free agent DeAngelo Williams due to their many years together in Carolina. All doom and gloom aside, Moreno is still only 23 years old and has played on a very pass-oriented team. He should still get around 30 receptions and he's also eclipsed 1,000 total yards in each of his first two years. The problem is that if the organization isn't fully behind him, it's a big problem. Backup Correll Buckhalter had a down year in 2010, so his fantasy value is next to nothing. Laurence Maroney is still around, but is a pending free agent. Denver's running back depth is a serious issue, only intensifying the pressure the front office must feel to acquire a new back. If Williams is brought in, he will definitely be a top 20 back. Moreno has proven to be a situational player and a decent third-down back. Unfortunately though, some fantasy owners may feel this situation may prove Moreno to be a sleeper. But they shouldn't invest heavily in him since he has underachieved and had issues staying healthy. There simply haven't been enough special moments to justify thinking Moreno could improve dramatically.

RB Adrian Peterson, --- - Stud (low risk)

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There are few sure things in life, but Adrian Peterson is one of them. Peterson has never had fewer than 1,298 rushing yards or 10 touchdowns in his four-year career. Now that Brett Favre is gone, expect his carries to tick back up after dropping in each of the last two seasons. Minnesota may not have a solution at quarterback this year, but the offense absolutely goes through Peterson. RB2 Toby Gerhart isn't a bad handcuff if he's available late in your draft, but you'll have to compete picking him with owners hoping Peterson gets injured. Peterson is a no-brainer top choice in all leagues.

RB Ray Rice, --- - Stud (low risk)

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In each of last two seasons, Ray Rice has been and remains a great RB1 across all league formats, especially PPR leagues. At the age of 24, he is in the prime of his career. But for the sake of discussion, there are two small concerns for Rice. First, his lack of touchdown production (six total TDs in 2010 and eight in 2009). Second, a huge drop in his yards per carry last year (5.3 in 2009 down to 4.0 in 2010). Rice's fantasy production relies heavily on yardage, more so than most backs. This makes him a more consistent fantasy option but he has very few high scoring weeks. But these numbers have more to do with Baltimore's style of play than some kind of hidden regression. Rice had 195 carries in 2010, while the Ravens had the lead. Compare that number to 72 carries when the game was tied and 69 carries while behind. Baltimore is a power-rushing team, so they use the run when it makes sense to do so in order to run the clock and minimize risks concerning time of possession and field position. The long and short of it is that defenses were locked on Rice when he got carries. Now that RB Willis McGahee is likely gone, Rice should see a bump in his redzone and goal-line carries and a few more touchdowns, but the Ravens like using a fresh battering ram to punch in touchdowns. Expect RB2 Jalen Parmele, who is Baltimore's uncontested backup at the moment, to poach a handful of touchdowns in the coming year.

RB James Starks, --- - Sleeper (undervalued)

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There is a lot of potential for James Starks to have a big year, but only in a certain context. The Green Bay coaching staff is very high on him. Last month it was reported one coach commented that Starks was "a poor man's Adrian Peterson." But the reality is, the Packers already have a timeshare on their hands. RB2 Ryan Grant is going to his fair share of first and second-down carries. But expect to see Starks in on every third down and in PPR leagues, he is definitely more valuable than Grant or very close to it. Fantasy owners should expect close to even touches here between Grant and Starks assuming Grant suffers no setbacks and plays up to his pre-injury talent. And with one of the best passing attacks in the league, neither back is going to average more than a dozen carries per game or to put it another way, neither will eclipse 200 carries in 16 games. But if Starks really outperforms Grant during training camp (which he might), what is now a timeshare in theory becomes the "James Starks show." In this scenario, Starks would be a serious fantasy sleeper. For now though, if Grant slips past the eighth round, he has a good value but he should not go any earlier than round seven in a 12-team league. The thing is, Starks will probably be selected within ten picks of Grant and he has a much higher ceiling. So until Grant really establishes himself and a report comes out that says as much, Starks should be the one back owners go after.

RB Jonathan Stewart, --- - Quality Backup

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There aren't many backfields as uncertain as the Carolina Panthers. Jonathan Stewart is a low-risk, high-reward sleeper if Carolina does not retain DeAngelo Williams. The lockout plays a big factor here since Williams will end up a restricted or unrestricted free agent, but this is all speculation until a deal is done. Working under the assumption that Stewart both remains healthy and is Carolina's clear-cut RB1 in 2011, he has to be considered amongst the top 15 at his position -- and that's a very conservative projection. Given the Panthers will likely be starting rookie QB Cam Newton, they'll need to rely heavily on their running game. Stewart has better-than-average speed and can break tackles to grind out extra yards on every touch. But the truth is, Carolina's offense may be so one-dimensional that defenses will stack the box and if they are consistently playing from behind, Stewart won't see as many carries. This mix of upside and risk is the reason Stewart isn't ranked any higher than in the mid-teens at present. If Williams returns, Stewart should plummet down your draft board and be considered nothing more than a fill-in player. If Williams departs, Stewart is a steal as a RB2 on your roster while backup RB Mike Goodson will have some limited value in deeper leagues (but nothing more).

RB Daniel Thomas, --- - Bust (overvalued)

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For now, Daniel Thomas is the RB1 in Miami. There is the potential the Dolphins to decide to bring back Ronnie Brown or Ricky Williams (or they may strongly pursue another free agent). It all depends on who they get; the organization has said many times over they plan on adding another back. Thomas is currently overvalued, which makes him a bust. Thomas is simply going too soon in fantasy drafts. In a recent expert's mock draft I participated in, Thomas went with the No. 61 pick -- that is just way too early. Early reports indicated the Dolphins wanted to add a third-down back, but Miami has since backed off on that claim. You only have to go back to last year's fantasy drafts to find another overvalued rookie back drafted too early in San Diego's Ryan Mathews. For now, if you can select Thomas as a flex option or RB3 in deeper leagues, that's ideal. But until this situation is fleshed out further, it's a big risk to reach on him. Current RB2 Lex Hilliard isn't that highly-regarded by head coach Tony Sparano and RB3 Kory Sheets will need to overcome an Achilles injury. Both players are unlikely to have any fantasy impact.

RB Pierre Thomas, --- - Gamble (high risk)

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Between Pierre Thomas, Reggie Bush, Mark Ingram, Chris Ivory and Lynell Hamilton, this is definitely the most crowded backfield in the NFL. Assuming each of these players is on the team at the start of the season, this is more or less how it should play out: Thomas will see the majority of first and second down snaps. Bush takes over on third down. Ingram and Bush spell Thomas. Hamilton spells Bush. Ivory spells Ingram. Hamilton fills-in for injured players. Complicated enough for you? Anyway, this is pure speculation and if anything, head coach Sean Payton will use this ambiguity to his full advantage strategically. Thomas has some potential as a flex option, especially if he remains healthy. But the Saints already spread the ball around and are a pass-first team. For fantasy purposes, unless Ingram blows these guys out of the water in the preseason, this is a situation to be avoided.

RB Ryan Torain, --- - Bye Week Fill-in

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Most beat writers close to the Washington Redskins believe they will aggressively pursue an impact free agent back. So for the time being, Torain is Washington's RB1, but it's very unlikely to last far into the season. The Redskins added rookie backs Roy Helu and Evan Royster for a reason. Both guys will likely get their opportunities. Unfortunately, none of the backs currently on the Washington roster are particularly enticing. Helu has some sleeper potential as Mike Shanahan has a history of maximizing talent at the running back position throughout his career. Torain has consistently been injury-prone during his career. At his best, he should be considered a flex player (but with two rookies competing for playing time behind him, Torain is very vulnerable to losing his RB1 status in Washington).

RB Michael Turner, --- - Solid/Safe Pick

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Turner, when healthy, has remained a consistent fantasy stud for Atlanta. But at the position-specific and steep age of 29, it's time to start being realistic because this could be the last year he's able to maintain his first-round value. The first and easiest knock against Turner is his lack of receptions as he posted a career-high (12) in 2010. So for those in PPR leagues, Turner's value is limited. But when Atlanta pounds the rock, Turner is still the man. He had 334 carries last season. The last time he approached that number of carries came in 2008 and in the following season, he missed the majority of the final seven games. Risk of injury is a problem for every player in the NFL. Assuming Turner stays healthy, what can fantasy owners expect? 2011 should only be a very slight regression. The Falcons did draft RB Jacquizz Rodgers and RB Jason Snelling is a more than capable backup and a smart handcuff if available late in your draft, but this team's backbone is still Turner.

RB Beanie Wells, --- - Gamble (high risk)

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Entering the 2011 NFL Draft, Chris Wells was a risky fantasy player. Now that the Arizona Cardinals drafted RB Ryan Williams out of Virginia Tech, the situation has only become more complicated. Wells is now part of a three-back committee between he, Williams and Tim Hightower. At best, Wells should be considered a risky RB3 on your fantasy roster and if he's any higher on your depth chart, you could be in trouble. Williams was slowed down in 2010 due to hamstring injuries, but when he was healthy in 2009 he was easily among the nation's best runners. Williams finished the year with 1,655 yards and 21 rushing touchdowns. He also poses a threat in the passing game by being a better than average receiver out of the backfield. Keep in mind, Wells has only started two games in his career and Hightower had the majority of the carries last year. Arizona drafted Williams near the top of the second round for a reason. If you select two very solid/safe running backs during your draft, consider passing on Wells and grab Williams. He has the bigger upside and he can certainly be selected a couple rounds later in the draft. The bottom line is that all three backs are risky to some degree. But for a positive angle for each player, Wells is the safest bet among the three; Williams has the upside that comes with being a rookie in a favorable situation and Hightower presents very little risk as a late-round flier.