2012 Team Outlook: New York Jets
QB Mark Sanchez, --- - Gamble (high risk)
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From a fantasy perspective, Sanchez is not a horrible quarterback. For the most part Mark's numbers are pretty consistent, with a nice 300 yard game tossed in every now and again. Of course with every good game comes a not so great performance, so playing Sanchez week to week can be risky. At the end of last season a few Jets players questioned Mark's work ethic and committment to the team. Sanchez used this along with the Tebow signing to fuel his off season training. While Tebow will take away a few snaps from Mark this season, it shouldn't be enough for fantasy owners to worry. After all, Tebow is known more for his scrambling ability than his pass game. Sanchez' numbers this season should be better than last year, yet not good enough to warrant a starting spot in most fantasy leagues. If you're looking for a solid backup with starting potential then Sanchez would be a good place to start.
Update (8/22): Sanchez has done very little in his two pre-season games this year. His lackluster performance has been partially his fault, partially the offensive line, the receiving corp ... pretty much the whole offense is in shambles. At this point it looks like this could be Mark's worst year of his short career. Drafting Sanchez is a big gamble and should only be done in big leagues.
RB Bilal Powell, --- - Fantasy Handcuff
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The 2011 season was Powell's rookie year. In limited action Bilal saw 13 carries, which totalled just 21 yards. Unless something happens to Greene, Tebow and McKnight Bilal won't see more than a handfull of touches this season. Couple his lack of carries last year with Jets rookie Terrance Ganaway and there's a chance Powell could fall to fourth on the depth chart. At this point there is no reason for fantasy owners to draft Powell.
Update (8/22): With his on the field performance and McKnight's shine problems, Powell may have vaulted to number two on the depth chart. Owners looking to handcuff Greene need to keep an eye on the Powell/McKnight battle.
RB Terrance Ganaway, --- - Super Sleeper (high risk/potential)
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With a thin backfield, anything is possible for the Jets this season. One possibility is that we could see Ganaway work his way up the depth chart becoming Greene's backup. With RG3 in front of you, the opportunities to shine were few and far between for Ganaway. He's a big back with good potential on a team with a weak backfield. It wouldn't surprise me to see the rookie work his way into a few games this season. If Ganaway produces during the pre-season, he could be a valuable handcuff for Shonn Greene owners.
RB Shonn Greene, --- - Quality Backup
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Sure Greene rushed for 1,000 yards last year (1,054 to be exact), but that doesn't say a lot. Over a 16 game season that's only 66 yards per game. Add in just 6 rushing touchdowns and Greene is scoring just 6 points a week with an additional 6 points every 2.5 games. From a fantasy perspective that just doesn't get it done. This year Greene will be the Jets' feature back and many believe Shonn won't be able to carry the load. If Greene can stay healthy, he could be a good starting back this season. However, there are questions as to how many games Greene will play, so draft Shonn with this in mind. Greene has the potential to be a fantasy starter if he can stay healthy. If you're looking for a solid third back with starter potential than Greene is your man.
RB Joe McKnight, --- - Gamble (high risk)
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Aside from Shonn Greene, the only other back in a Jets uniform who has carried the ball more than 50 times in their NFL career is McKnight. This means if you're drafting Greene and want his backup, you'll need to pick up McKnight with his 82 career carries for 323 yards. The second best rusher for New York this season likely won't be a running back, but backup quarterback Tim Tebow. While it's nice to handcuff your backs, it is best to stay away from Joe until late in the draft (if at all).
Update (8/22): When training camp began the number two running back position was McKnight's to lose. Fast forward a few weeks and a couple of games; add in a shine injury and it appears Joe may drop to third on the depth chart. If you're looking to handcuff Greene you'll need to keep an eye on the McKnight/Powell race. At the moment it appears Powell may have jumped over McKnight.
WR Jeremy Kerley, --- - Deep-league Only
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Setting aside backs and tight ends, Jeremy Kerley was the Jets' 3rd leading receiver in 2011; not that that's saying much seeing as Kerley had just 29 receptions for 314 yards. With numbers like these, fantasy owners would be wasting a roster spot drafting Kerley. That is of course pending Hill getting the starting nod opposite Holmes. Should the rookie faulter during preseason then Kerley could get a chance to start. At this point it doesn't appear as though Kerley will be starting, so until we hear otherwise it's best to stay away from Jeremy on draft day.
WR Stephen Hill, --- - Gamble (high risk)
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With Burress no longer under contract, the Jets needed to find someone to play opposite Holmes this season. New York filled that void in the second round of the draft when they selected Georgia Tech's Stephen Hill. The 6'4" speedster has impressive speed, length and leaping ability. The drawback here of course is that Hill is a rookie and he is very raw. He'll need to work with Sanchez on his routes and gain Mark's confidence if he's going to produce this season. As is the case with all rookies, there's a big risk for fantasy owners. The up side here is the Jets don't really have another receiver, so Hill will have plenty or opportunities to produce.
WR Santonio Holmes, --- - Quality Backup
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It sounds like Holmes and Sanchez have made up during the off season after last year's late season meltdown. Late in the 2011 season Holmes publicly criticized Sanchez, Schottenheimer and the offensive line causing many to question Rex's decision to name Holmes a captain. During the off season Holmes, Sanchez and some of the other receivers got together to work out. Hopefully this time together gave them a chance to mend fences and move on to this year. Last season was one of Holmes' worst years since his rookie season when he pulled in just 49 receptions. So long as Sanchez remains the starting quarterback Holmes' numbers should be worthy of a fantasy starter this season. On the other hand, if Tebow takes over the starting role, Holmes' production is likely to suffer. Not knowing just how big a role Tebow will play in this offense is cause for concern. Until we know more its probably best to select Holmes as your third receiver. The potential is here for a big season but I'm not sure this run heavy offense can make it happen.
WR Chaz Schilens, --- - Deep-league Only
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At this time all signs point to the rookie Hill getting the start opposite Holmes when the season begins. We all know that could change between now and early September, so we'll need to keep an eye on this situation. Schilens was signed by the Jets with the intent of starting opposite Holmes and I'm sure he'll be working hard in camp to earn that starting spot. Schilens' best season came in 2009 when he played in just 8 games, catching 29 passes for 365 yards and a pair of touchdowns. There's some potential here for a decent season if he can get on the field. With Holmes and Hill ahead of him on the depth chart, it doesn't seem likely Chaz will get enough playing time to be fantasy worthy in most leagues.
TE Tim Tebow, --- - Fantasy Handcuff
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When the Jets signed Tebow, everyone began to wonder how he would fit into the offense. At first Rex said the Jets would run a two quarterback offense. Then a few weeks later Rex said Tebow could see as many as 20 snaps a game. If the latter is true Sanchez and Tebow will be useless to fantasy owners. For the sanity of fantasy owners we hope Rex keeps one of these guys under center and uses the other in the wildcat offense (similar to how Brad Smith was used). If Tebow's future is 4-6 snaps a game in a wildcat offense then he holds no fantasy value to anyone other than Mark Sanchez owner. On the other hand, if Sanchez doesn't produce then we could see Tebow under center 20 times a game. Unless you're planning to draft Sanchez I'd stay away from Tebow until the late rounds.
TE Dustin Keller, --- - Solid/Safe Pick
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In 2011 Keller was the Jets' leading receiver in receptions with 65, targets at 116, yards with 815 and 20+ yard receptions with 12. The only area Keller didn't lead the team in was touchdown receptions, where he was third with 5 behind Holmes and Burress (who each had 8). Week in and week out Keller is by far Sanchez' favorite target; no matter where on the field they are Keller gets a look. At season's end Keller was the 6th best tight end in the league. With everything else changing in New York the one constant Sanchez will have this season is Keller and it wouldn't surprise us to see him used early and often.
TE Hayden Smith, --- - Low Potential
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The only way Smith sees enough playing time to be fantasy worthy would be if Keller misses a few weeks. Smith is an unknown here in the states. Hayden is an "Aussie" rugby player trying out football for the first time. That's right; Hayden has never played football before, which means he has a lot to learn. It's hard enough to be a rookie in the NFL, let alone a rookie with no football experience. Smith has to learn how to block, run routes and oh yeah take a hit while catching the ball. There are much better options for fantasy owners at tight end.
PK Nick Folk, ATL - Solid/Safe Pick
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The Jets' kicking game is Folk's to lose. If Folk has a poor showing in the preseason and Brown is lights out then we could see Brown named the Jets' starting kicker. We don't believe this is going to happen, but as is the case with most things, anything can happen so we'll have to watch this one play out. For now we're going with Folk to win the job.
PK Josh Brown, --- - Not Draft Worthy
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Brown was brought in to give the Jets another option in the kicking game. This doesn't mean they were unhappy with Folk's performance last season, it just means they're interested in exploring their options should something happen to Folk. At this point we don't see Brown winning the job, but anything could happen; keep an eye on this situation.
New York - Solid/Safe Pick
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The Jets defense finished the 2011 season allowing 4,993 yards, the 5th best overall. Not allowing yards is great and all, but that didn't stop opposing offenses from scoring 363 points -- 20th best defense in this catagory. In terms of take aways and sacks New York had 31 and 35 respectivly, which was good enough to put them in the middle of the pack. What this all means is there are 12-15 teams which scored more fantasy points than the Jets last season. Sure New York tried to address their lack of sacks by drafting Coples, but that doesn't mean a lot. The Jets tried the same thing a few years ago when they drafted Gholston and look where that got them. New York's defense should be better this season, but they're not a top 5 defense. We expect them to finish somehwere in the top 12, so they should be a starting option in most fantasy leagues.