Week 14: Player Downgrades
Player Downgrades is a column focused on a handful of players who are losing fantasy value. Rather than discuss injured players, these guys are healthy and getting playing time, but are still underachieving. It's ultimately up to you whether you decide to bench or drop them.
It's playoff time, which means you're technically stuck (or blessed) with your roster of players. Hopefully you've set yourself up to be in good position; and assuming you've been a loyal reader to the Player Downgrades column, you should be in great position. Downgrades are going to specifically focus on players who will not score as many points as expected. Now, this doesn't mean you automatically place them out of your lineup (not unless you've got a great backup in a great match-up). Remember though, stick with the core players who got you where you are now.
QB Andy Dalton, PHI
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Dalton has proved to be the most successful rookie quarterback this season and likely salvaged more than a few fantasy teams with his solid and steady play. Unfortunately, that consistency should take a hit in Week 14 against the Houston Texans. It has been a crazy transformation for this defense. In 2011, they are in the top five and in fact, they are only allowing 0.92 passing TDs per game. Dalton hasn't thrown more than one TD pass since Week 10. Even though he's done well to limit turnovers in recent weeks, the production just hasn't been there.
QB Ben Roethlisberger, ---
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I mentioned Big Ben in the Week 5 and Week 12 editions of the Player Downgrades. In Week 5, I let you guys down and Roethlisberger had his biggest game of the year when he passed for 5 TDs against Tennessee. Later for Week 12, I nailed it. He had a below average game that week against Kansas City, accumulating only 11.5 fantasy points in standard scoring leagues and I forewarned that Roethlisberger would be a risky start during the fantasy playoffs. Now it's time to really hit the nail on the head and be correct about him two out of three times. Heading into Week 14, the Steelers are going up against Cleveland. The Browns haven't allowed a QB to pass for two or more TDs since Week 4 and that was the only time it has occurred all season. No QB has passed for more than 270 yards against them either. Essentially, if Roethlisberger has a big game (300-plus yards and multiple TDs), it would go against every trend established by the Browns' defense this season.
RB Cedric Benson, ---
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Everyone should know by now that San Francisco and Miami are tremendous against the run, but don't forget about the Houston Texans. Since Week 9, the Texans have only allowed running backs to gain 258 rushing yards, 121 receiving yards and no touchdowns whatsoever. They didn't go up against scrubs either, they've played LeGarrette Blount, Michael Turner and Maurice Jones-Drew. Week 14 presents Cedric Benson, who will inevitably become the next splattered bug on Houston's windshield. Benson hasn't been too bad either. He's gained 381 total yards and three TDs in his last three games. That's great for a low-end RB2 or flex guy. Now, you may not have another back to replace Benson with but again, this is the time of year where you really have to respect stat trends. Houston has only allowed backs to score two touchdowns since Week 5, that was eight weeks ago or half a season! Sure, it's possible Benson bucks the numbers and delivers big points, but that would a risky outcome to rely on.
RB Jonathan Stewart, ---
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The Panthers appear to have made a commitment to get back to their running game in the last month. In fact, Jonathan Stewart and DeAngelo Williams have combined for 493 total yards and three TDs over the last three games -- making them both solid flex options recently. In Week 14 though, Carolina will be going against Atlanta, and the Falcons have very quietly been a great defense this season. It is true that Arian Foster ran all over them in Week 13 (31 carries, 111 rushing yards and a TD), but he does that against every team. Excluding Foster, Atlanta hadn't allowed a 100-yard rusher all season. Considering Carolina will continue to split touches between Stewart and Williams, that alone adds risk about which player will have the better game.
RB Beanie Wells, ---
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Wells has found the end zone in each of his last two games. He had that great game against St. Louis in Week 12 and was solid again the following week against Dallas. The Cardinals' upcoming game against San Francisco will be a rematch of what was a one-sided affair in Week 11. In that game, Wells only had eight carries for 33 yards and he also coughed up a fumble. The 49ers are having one of the best years against the run in NFL history, barring some huge collapse to close the year. Wells is already dealing with an injured knee that keeps him out of practices early in the week and now he's facing the league's toughest run defense again? You could make the argument that Arizona will now know what to expect having already played the 49ers, which is true to an extent. But realistically, this is Wells and the Cardinals, not exactly a powerhouse combination. If you've got a good backup, don't be afraid to use him.
WR Santonio Holmes, ---
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Whether it is Santonio Holmes or Plaxico Burress in Week 14, neither player has a great match-up. The Jets will face Kansas City and one of the best kept secrets in the NFL is Chiefs cornerback Brandon Flowers. Even without future All-Pro Eric Berry, Flowers has anchored KC's secondary as one of the league's best. Over their last five games, the Chiefs are only allowing receivers to score 11.5 fantasy points in standard scoring leagues. They got out of the gates slowly, giving up four TDs to receivers in their first two games and eight TDs in their first five games. Since their Week 6 bye, only Brandon Marshall and Eric Decker have found the end zone. Holmes and Burress together are having a solid season, but both players inhibit the other from having a truly breakout season. Holmes has more receptions and yards, while Burress has more touchdowns. Predicting who will have the better game is a toss-up, which is not a gamble to take in the fantasy playoffs.
WR Mike Williams, ---
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Williams seems to have finally turned around what had been a disappointing season in his last three games, but yet again, mind the match-ups. His next game against Jacksonville places him against the second-best defense against wide receivers. Jacksonville still needs to play their Week 13 game against San Diego at the time of this column's publication, so all the numbers aren't yet in place; but on the year thus far, the Jags are very tough. The only 100-yard game they've allowed came against Kenny Britt in Week 1. No receiver has had more than six receptions against them either and again that came against Tennessee in Week 1. No wide receiver has eclipsed double-digit points in standard scoring leagues against them since Week 7. So while Williams is finally starting to come around, he'll face a serious road block to open the playoffs.