Golf Rankings for Masters Tournament

by Ryan Baroff FFToolbox.com
 

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Tournament Stop

IT'S MASTERS WEEK!!!!!

This Masters is full of anticipation and storylines. Rory is going for the career grand slam, and is coming off a win at the Arnold Palmer Invitational. Phil Mickelson won the WGC-Mexico, and comes into Augusta in stellar form. DJ is still the man to beat, but Justin Thomas and Jon Rahm have been hot on his tail for world number one. Justin Rose is on fire. Jason Day has won recently. And… Tiger is back! Then we have the first-timer's curse: no Augusta debutant has won since 1979. This year, we have several guys who can overcome that curse, namely Tony Finau and Xander Schauffele.

Augusta National is a course where I'm heavily weighing course history and tournament experience. First-timers have a poor track record here, but I mentioned a couple of debutants that I could see cracking the top-10 this week. The green complexes are so difficult and undulating that knowing where to miss shots and how to smartly recover is even more important than at other Tour stops. Because scrambling is so difficult this week, hitting greens and placing your shots correctly is key. I'm going to look heavily at strokes gained tee-to-green this week, which obviously spits out the best players in the world. If you break up the strokes gained stats even further, off-the-tee play has the biggest correlation with finishing position at Augusta. It makes sense, as most of the recent bombers who have won the Masters are guys who gain the most strokes off-the-tee (Bubba Watson, Dustin Johnson, Jon Rahm, etc.). I'll be looking at short game play as well, but it will be weighed less than off-the-tee and approach shots.

Statistical Report

Strokes Gained Off-the-Tee (SG:OTT): Every week, off-the-tee play is a main target. Guys who can hit it long and straight have a huge advantage over the rest of the field. It makes courses shorter, and allows them to hit approach shots from shorter distances, setting up birdies. Augusta typically has short rough, so bombs away! Scoring on the par-5s will be the major key for players this week, so give me all the distance. The best off-the-tee players in recent weeks are Bubba Watson, Brendan Steele, Francesco Molinari, Justin Thomas, Jordan Spieth, and Dustin Johnson.

Strokes Gained Approach (SG:APP): Ball-striking, especially with irons, is going to be a major key for players this week. The greens at Augusta National are so challenging that controlling iron shots into the greens will be extremely important. If players hit their irons into the wrong quadrants of the greens, they'll be faced with three and four putts all week. In terms of recent play, the players to target in strokes gained approach are Adam Hadwin, Rafa Cabrera-Bello, Rickie Fowler, Bryson DeChambeau, Justin Thomas, and Xander Schauffele.

Birdie or Better % (BoB%): There are really not many weeks where we aren't going to target birdie or better percentage, because that's what fantasy golf scoring is all about. This event should lend itself to low scores, with some short par-4s and reachable par-5s. The best players in this field in recent birdie or better percentage are Phil Mickelson, Jon Rahm, Bryson DeChambeau, Kevin Chappell, Justin Rose, and Pat Perez.

Par-5 Scoring (P5): All of the par-5s are reachable for the majority of players in the field, especially holes #13 and #15. Players who can attack these holes and rack up birdies and eagles will be leading throughout the week. This could mean bombers, or it could mean elite wedge players. Some of the best par-5 scorers in this field are Pat Perez, Jason Day, Bryson DeChambeau, Justin Thomas, Kevin Chappell, and Phil Mickelson.