|By Shawn Childs, Monday, August 19, 2019|
(Editor's note: This is the free preview of the Oakland Raiders team outlook. If you already are a premium subscriber to FullTime Fantasy, click here for our premium expanded Oakland Raiders Team Outlook. The expanded team outlook also includes sections covering the coaching staff, offensive line, schedule, free agency, 2019 draft picks, defense & more.)
Raiders Offense Outlook
Game score led to the Raiders passing the ball 59 percent of the time. The addition of Antonio Brown will help the passing game. Oakland would like to run a ball controlled offense with success running the ball in the red zone.
QB Derek Carr - Super Sleeper (high risk/potential)
Update 12/29/19Carr has two TD or fewer in 14 of 15 games while failing to pass for over 300 yards in any contest in 2019. His completion rate (71.1) remains elite with respectable yards per pass attempt (7.8). He needs 337 yards to reach 4,000 on the year while ranking poorly in TDs (20). Denver held him to 259 yards and one TD in Week 1. The Broncos ranks 7th in QB defense (17.65 FPPG), with most of their failure coming over the past six games (27.05, 21.85, 20.25, 33.00, 27.10, and 9.85 Fantasy points). Denver allows 6.9 yards per pass attempt with QBs tossing 18 TDs. Oakland needs a win, but they won’t score a ton of points in this game.
RB DeAndre Washington - Solid/Safe Pick
Update 12/14/19With Josh Jacobs out last week, Washington earn starting snaps. He finished with 96 combined yards with one TD and six catches with 20 touches. Oakland had him on the field for 63 percent of the RB snaps, which was higher than Josh Jacobs in nine of his previous 11 games. Washington gains only 3.4 yards per carry with no runs over 20 yards since 2016 (149 rushes in 2017, 2018, and 2019). The Jaguars rank 29th vs. RBs (28.98 FPPG) with huge failure in two games (63.10 and 59.60 Fantasy points) and weakness against RBs in four of their last five contests (34.10, 45.10, 35.00, and 59.60 Fantasy points). Jacksonville gives up 5.2 yards per rush with RBs scoring 16 TDs. Tempting for sure based on his salary and matchup plus Oakland has been a much better team for the RB position at home.
RB Josh Jacobs - Solid/Safe Pick
Update 12/29/19After missing Week 14 with a shoulder issue, Jacobs gained 109 combined yards with two catches on 26 touches vs. the Jaguars. Even with elite touches, he missed his last week’s game with his shoulder issue. His best value continues to come at home (20.41 FPPG in DraftKings scoring) with no TDs on the road (10.78 FPPG). In Week 1, Jacobs gained 113 combined yards with two TDs and one catch vs. the Broncos. This week he suffered in infection in his leg that required minor surgery that put him at risk to play on Sunday. Denver ranks 8th in RB defense (21.63 FPPG), with two teams scoring over 30.0 Fantasy points. Tons of risk with no real upside if he does play based on his injury status.
RB Jalen Richard - Deep-league Only
The Raiders predominantly use Richard as their pass-catching back with the most value in third downs. Jalen set career highs in catches (68) and receiving yards (607) while continuing to run the ball well (4.7 yards per catch). He finished with 866 combined yards with one TD while averaging 7.7 touches per game. His role will continue to offer value in the passing game, but he only works as backend option at RB in PPR leagues. I'll lower my expectations to 100 touches for 700+ yards with about 50 catches. Only an RB5 with a minimal chance at earning a starting job.
RB Doug Martin - Deep-league Only
At times in 2018, Martin flashed his upside of yesteryear. In his final two games last season, he rushed for 100 yards or more in each contest (21/107/1 and 21/100). Over a six-game stretch midseason, Doug gained 447 combined yards with two TDs and 12 catches while receiving 15 touches per game. He finished the year with 839 combined yards with four TDs and 18 catches. A veteran back who projects as the top backup runner on early downs.
WR Antonio Brown - Stud (low risk)
Over the previous six seasons, Brown caught 686 of his 1,026 targets for 9,145 yards and 67 receiving TDs while missing four games. His success breaks down to 21.8 Fantasy points per game. Antonio caught over 100 passes in six straight seasons with seven years over 1,100 yards receiving. He scored a career-high 15 TDs in 2018. His catch rate fell below his career average (65.6) in each of the last two years (62.0 and 61.9). The change to Oakland leaves Fantasy owners questioning his value going forward. In 2018, the Raiders completed 183 passes to the WR position for 2,116 yards and nine TDs on 267 targets. Brown is a great WR, and I expect him to improve the Raiders' passing game. A conservative outlook would be 90+ catches for 1,100+ yards and double-digit TDs.
WR Tyrell Williams - Quality Backup
Update 12/29/19Williams has four catches or fewer in 11 straight games with fewer than 50 yards receiving in nine of his previous 12 contests. His season started with a TD in five straight games with two games of value (6/105/1 and 3/91/1). On the year, Williams averages only five targets per game. The Broncos ranks 7th in WR defense (30.11 FPPG – 158/2046/13 on 255 targets). Even with success in his first matchup (6/105/1) vs. Denver, Williams remains a weak option in most Fantasy formats, plus he landed on the injury report on Thursday with a foot injury.
WR Hunter Renfrow - Bye Week Fill-in
Update 12/29/19After missing three games, Renfroe made an impact vs. the Chargers (7/107/1) thanks to an early 56-yard TD. His opportunity with the Raiders picked over his six contests (29/388/3 on 36 targets) with two other decent games (4/88/1 and 6/54/1). Possession type player with some scoring upside, but his matchup is unfavorable.
WR Ryan Grant - Deep-league Only
In 2017 with the Redskins, Grant flashed WR3 value at times. He finished with 45 catches for 573 yards and four TDs with seven starts. A move to Indy should have been positive with Andrew Luck behind center. Ryan only caught 35 balls for 334 yards and one TDs while gaining only 9.5 yards per catch. At age 29, it's tough to believe in Grant being a viable Fantasy option at any level.
TE Luke Willson - Bust (overvalued)
Over six years in the NFL, Willson has never been a starting TE. Luke caught 22 passes or less in each year with his best success coming in 2014 (22/362/3 on 40 targets. Last year Oakland had a top passing catching TE, which led to 92 catches for 1,113 yards and ten TDs on 131 targets. There is a massive void at TE for the Raiders in 2019, and Willson has no chance of making an impact even as a low-grade TE2.
TE Foster Moreau - Dynasty Only
In his final two seasons at LSU, Moreau caught 46 combined passes for 550 yards and five TDs. His game projects as blocking TE with the most help in the run game. Low upside player, but he may be the best the Raiders have at TE in 2019.
TE Darren Waller - Solid/Safe Pick
Update 12/29/19After playing well over a three-game stretch (7/100, 6/72, and 8/122), Waller came up short in Week 16 (4/37). He only has three TDs on the year while failing to score in eight straight contests. His best two showings came in Week 3 (13/134) and Week 7 (7/126/2). After 15 games, Waller has 84 catches for 1,038 yards and three TDs on 107 targets. In Week 1, he caught seven passes for 70 yards vs. the Broncos. Denver is league average defending TEs (12.49 FPPG – 83/863/2 on 117 targets) with failure in two contests (10/115/1 and 13/183). Worth a swing if he breaks out of his scoring slump.
PK Daniel Carlson - Low Potential
After the Vikings drafted Carlson in the fifth round in 2018, they cut him after missing three field goals in Week 2. In college, he made all 198 of his extra points with 92 of 114 kicks going through the uprights. Oakland picked him up before the seventh game of the season. Daniel finished the year with 16 made field goals in 17 chances with the Raiders while making all 24 of his extra points. He even made all three of his kicks over 50 yards. Last year Oakland scored only 30 TDs while creating 32 field goal chances. I like his leg and potential upside, but he needs this offense to show growth before developing into a week-to-week starter.
Oakland - Low Potential
Oakland slipped to 30th in the NFL in rushing yards allowed (2,249) with 16 TDs and seven runs over 40 yards. Ball carriers gained 4.7 yards per rush with 30.0 attempts per game.
The Raiders improved to 19th in passing yards allowed (3,853) with 36 TDs. Their defense had 14 Ints with only 13 sacks. Oakland needs more playmakers in pass coverage while improving their pass rush.
DT Maurice Hurst graded well in run support while picking up four sacks and three defended passes as a part-time player in his rookie season. The new Raiders coaching staff focused on quickness and power on the interior of their line in this year's draft. Hurst has a great first step, which helps his disrupter value against the run and pass run. His upper body needs to get stronger to help finish his attacks. Maurice has a high motor, but he needs to improve his vision when engaged at the point of contact.
DT Johnathan Hankins lost his way in the pass rush while helping as a run defender. His tackling skills regressed last year.
DE Arden Key struggled in all areas in his rookie season after starting ten games. Key projects a rotational pass rusher with his best asset coming in his ability to beat blockers after the snap. He has a quick first step that can offer an edge. Arden has risk vs. the run and commitment to the game. Key needs to stay in top shape while improving his motor and pass rushing technique.
DE Clelin Ferrell should move right into the starting lineup in his first season in the NFL. Ferrell has upside as a pass rusher while holding his ground in the run game.
Brandon Marshall had over 100 tackles in three of his previous five seasons for the Broncos while offering minimal value in the pass rush. Last season he regressed in all areas while missing five games due to a knee injury.
Vontaze Burfict was a stud early in his career, but health and suspensions have kicked his game down a notch while still being a dirty player.
In his second year in the NFL, Marquel Lee set a career high in tackles (68) while offering no value so far in his career in the pass rush. Marquel will be an asset in run support.
CB Gareon Conley missed 14 games in 2017 with a shin injury that required surgery after the Raiders drafted him in the first round. Conley has the skill set to be a run and chase corner with enough speed to recover from a mistake while holding his own in press coverage even with a need for more strength. Gareon seems indecisive when playing off the line of scrimmage when faced with decisions on routes and coverage. His game projects more like a coverage cover due to his weakness in run support and aggression off blocks. Last year he held receivers to low yards per catch with 15 defended passes and three Ints.
CB Daryl Worley struggled in pass coverage again last year while missing time with a shoulder injury. In his rookie season, he projected to be a neutral defender in pass coverage.
The Raiders added multiple players to help improve the cornerback position, which requires a rebound in the pass rush.
S Karl Joseph is a former first-round draft pick (2016). Joseph was a neutral player in his first year in the NFL while showing growth against the run in 2017. Last season he had growth after starting the year as a backup while missing three games.
Rookie Johnathan Abram should find his way into the starting lineup in some way early in 2019. He'll improve the run defense while still needing to improve in pass coverage.
This defense does have some first-round talent and youth on its side, but there are too many holes to fix in one draft season. The pass rush can't help but improve while some of the band-aids may surprise in coverage. Moving in the right direction, but they would be tough to trust as Fantasy defense this year.
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