The 2007 NFL draft has produced some big time busts led by #1 JaMarcus Russell and #9 Ted Ginn. Despite many failed first round receiver selections (Mike Williams, Roy Williams, Charles Rogers to name a few), the Lions hit gold in 2007 when they nabbed Calvin Johnson with the #2 overall pick. I fully expect Megatron to take the next step toward fantasy super stardom in 2010. The Lions' front office has added a few key offensive weapons which should alleviate the double and triple coverage which limited CJ's production in 2009. Detroit traded back into the first round and selected RB Javhid Best at #30, giving them a game breaker in the backfield as Kevin Smith continues to rehab from ACL surgery. They've also added TE Tony Scheffler -- which should open up the middle of the field -- and brought in WR Nate Burleson to give 2nd year QB Matt Stafford a few extra toys for the 2010 season. Megatron nearly reached 1,000 yards in 2009 despite being slowed throughout the season with knee, thigh and hand injuries which caused him to miss 2 games. In 2008, Johnson had 78 catches for 1,331 and 12 touchdowns which are very attainable numbers in 2010 now that he should enjoy more single coverage with an upgraded surrounding cast. His current ADP of 15 overall (WR5) makes him a solid upside pick at the end of round 2 / early round 3. I favor him over Larry Fitzgerald (who faces a serious downgrade in supporting cast with the loss of QB Kurt Warner and WR Anquan Boldin).
Under new coach Mike Shanahan the Redskins are expected to employ a lot of 2-TE formations, which could limit the fantasy upside of both Chris Cooley and Fred Davis. However, I wouldn't be so fast to discount Cooley this season as he could be an undervalued player that pays dividends if you miss out on the top 5 TEs. Cooley's TD production has tailed off the past two years, but in his four seasons in the NFL (2004-2007) he averaged 7 TDs per season. He missed the last nine games of 2009 with an ankle injury, but appears healthy and has been lining up out wide in OTAs as a way for the Redskins to provide D-Mac with as many weapons as possible. The addition of Donovan McNabb under center should provide a boost to a Redskins' passing game (which ranked a mediocre 16th in the NFL last season -- 218 yards/game average). Cooley's fantasy stock would see an added boost if leading 2009 receiver Santana Moss (900 yards, 3 TDs) is suspended for violating the league's substance abuse policy ( he has been linked to an HGH distributor). I'm expecting a bounce back season for the 27 year old tight end with a return to his 2007 stat line (786 yards, 8 touchdowns) within reach based on the quarterback upgrade and limited receiving options in the Redskins' offense. As an added bonus, the Redskins have the most favorable fantasy schedule for quarterbacks and tight ends based on the 2009 defensive statistics of their 2010 opponents.